A wave of right-wing populism has been roiling global politics in the last year, putting strongmen into power around the world and sending liberals into bewildered retreat.
- Early Elections No Longer Loom - So Why Is Netanyahu Campaigning?
- These Iranian Elections Are Pushing the Boundaries of Public Discourse
- Macron and Merkel Have a Weapon Against Putin
Last May, the Philippines elected the self-declared killer and “Trump of the East,” Rodrigo Duterte, in a surprise victory quickly followed by the shock result of the Brexit referendum in June. Come November, U.S. President Donald Trump mortified pollsters by smashing Hillary Clinton in the electoral college and this April, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a referendum that expanded his powers.
These last 12 months have proven the power of the people to reshape world politics, even if the French voted for the centrist candidate last week, avoiding any reshaping at all. The right-ward shift has left many worried for the future of liberal democracy, and also that the next round of national elections will just make matters worse, which is possible. Here is a brief review of races to come, and their predicted outcome.
Iran, presidential election, May 19
Iran’s presidential election comes with the caveat that all candidates in the Islamic Republic must prove loyalty to the country's mullahs and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The choice is therefore between candidates approved by Khamenei, which means there is no real opposition to the status quo, leading commentators to question the legitimacy of Iranian democracy.
International observers heavily favor so-called moderate Iranian President Hassan Rohani for another term, but he faces Ebrahim Raisi, an up-and-coming conservative firebrand. Raisi seems bent on closing Iran to outside influences again and jacking up the price the country gets for its oil. He is also alleged to have taken part in a 1988 purge of opposition members that may have killed as many as 15,000 people, according to Human Rights Center of Iran.
WHO’S TAPPED TO WIN: Rohani and the Ayatollah, no matter what.
United Kingdom, general election, June 8
British Prime Minister Theresa May believes the snap election she called will increase her Conservative Party’s majority in U.K. Parliament. While Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is climbing in the polls, May is still tipped to win – by a large margin – not least because Corbyn, who campaigned against Brexit, says the referendum outcome was clear and is now awkwardly campaigning to lead the U.K. out of the European Union.
WHO’S TAPPED TO WIN: May and the ghost of Nigel Farage.
France, National Assembly, June 11 (The second round will be held on June 18)
One month after France’s presidential election in which centrist Emmanuel Macron defeated far-right leader Marine Le Pen, France will elect the 577 members of the National Assembly. The election will be a very nontraditional one, as France’s new president belongs to a party he founded just prior to his presidential campaign, which is untested and unprepared for local elections.
Nevertheless, his party, re-branded "La République En Marche" will be contending for all 577 parliamentary seats. Macron’s party faces stiff competition from more established political forces, including Le Pen’s National Front, which has had its strongest showings in local elections.
WHO’S TAPPED TO WIN: Time will tell.
Russia, presidential election, March 31, 2018
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been accused of hacking elections in the United States, France and Germany in a plot to discredit western democracy, may stand for a second consecutive term, which would be his fourth as president. He hasn’t said so yet, but the odds that he’ll stand down and relinquish his unchecked power over Russia seem remote.
WHO’S TAPPED TO WIN: You already know.