Analysis / Global Recession and Your Pension Savings

The dark clouds forming on the horizon of international capital markets are raising concerns that the high times of the past six years may be over. Pension savers should anticipate a blow to their profits - from two directions simultaneously.

First, signals from the capital market are worrisome. Of course, there is no reason to extrapolate the next five years based on two weeks of market losses, and it's particularly questionable to make such judgments in Israel, where macroeconomic results are at record levels, with unemployment at a six-year low, national debt at an all-time low and initial assessments expecting growth far higher than forecasted, reaching 5.5% or more.

Nevertheless, the situation on the markets is worrisome. Concerns over slowing economic growth rates worldwide on the horizon are worrisome, and export-based Israel cannot ignore them. If a global recession does indeed occur, the Israeli economy will have to perform miracles to overcome it, and to feed continuing swift rises of the past month. Even more worrisome are interest rates: Interest rates in Israel are rising, and when interest rates increase, stock markets always drop.

The chances of the capital markets continuing to grow at an annual rate of 10%, as they have to date, are now smaller than in the past, and that means lower profits for pension savings.