Samir Ghattas, head of Middle East Forum for Strategic Studies in Egypt, has no doubts whatsoever. The understandings between the Hamas delegation on one side and the Egyptian intelligence chief and Mohammed Dahlan on the other are a balloon with no truth in it, he said in a media interview this week.
Ghattas, who is also an Egyptian parliament member, was referring to reports that Hamas officials who met the Egyptian intelligence chief had reached agreements including the appointment of Fatahs Dahlan to run a committee in charge of Gaza affairs. These agreements were intended to reduce tensions between Egypt and Hamas, lead to the opening the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza, increase Egypts electricity supply to the enclave and ultimately cut Gaza off from the West Bank.
No Egyptian official confirmed these agreements. Hamas answered vaguely, saying its officials including Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar and security forces chief Tawfiq Abu Naim had met with the heads of Egyptian intelligence. They said they expected a significant improvement in relations between Hamas and Egypt, and in Gazans well-being.
Not a word about any agreements or understandings. On the other hand, Ghattas skepticism can also be questioned. Hes suspect because hes also Palestinian. In the past he was an adviser to Fatahs Khalil al-Wazir, a strong opponent of Hamas, and according to reports in Egypt, he has several foreign passports in addition to his Egyptian one.
The one person nobody had any doubts about is Dahlan, a bitter rival of Mahmoud Abbas, whom Dahlan has been trying for years to oust with the justified legal argument that Abbas presidency, which has long expired, isnt legitimate.
Faiz Abu Shamala, a Gazan journalist and investigator, was the first to report in detail on the recent agreements. He reported that under the agreements a committee will be set up to run Gaza affairs with a $50 million budget. The committee will be headed by Dahlan, who will be in charge of foreign policy, fundraising and running the crossings between Gaza and Egypt, while the security and interior portfolios will remain with Hamas. Dahlan will also be in charge of talks with Israel about the crossings and other matters.
The committee will be financed by taxes the Palestinian Authority now collects from Gaza. The money will be used to pay civil servants, and this will complete the PAs break with Gaza. Egypt will be able to open the Rafah crossing, as it will be managed on the Palestinian side by Fatah people who support Dahlan.
The Qatar card
Palestinian commentators say these agreements will serve not only Hamas, which is under Egyptian, Arab and international pressure as a terror organization, but also Israel. They say Dahlan, who still supports the peace process, will help Israel run Gaza. Even Abbas will finally be able to get rid of the Gaza yoke.
This week, with the return of the delegation from Egypt, it was reported that Hamas beefed up its forces along the Gaza-Egypt border to demonstrate its cooperation with Egypts demands. These demands consist mainly of containing the Sinai terror and preventing terrorists from passing between Sinai and Gaza.
But whether these agreements are real or a trial balloon, the very visit to Egypt and the long meetings with senior Egyptian officials reflect the dilemmas facing Egypt and Hamas. The talks were held as the electricity crisis peaked. They also follow the sanctions and closure imposed by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and Libya on Qatar, and U.S. President Donald Trumps calling Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood terror groups, as he said in Riyadh last month.
Iran, which excels at reading the regional map, hastened last month to congratulate Ismail Haniyeh and Sinwar for their promotions in Hamas. Quds force chief Qasem Soleimani, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and parliament Speaker Ali Larijani were among the well-wishers. But their letters were published by Hamas only after Trumps visit, a hint that Hamas still has another option if its cut off from the Arab fold.
Egypt hastened to warn Hamas not to return to Irans embrace, but set up the meetings with the Gaza delegation and Dahlan, who lives in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.
Qatar isnt Egypts only concern. Abbas is also throwing monkey wrenches in the Egyptian works. While Arab states are joining the boycott of Qatar or at least supporting it, Abbas hasnt made a clear statement on the issue.
At the beginning of the week his confidants said he would be willing to mediate between Qatar and the Gulf states and even offered his services to Jordan and spoke to Egypts president about it. But the next day the Palestinian intelligence chief, Majid Faraj, said firmly that were with the Arab states and against Irans schemes in the region, without mentioning Qatar.
Abbas rivals said he was silent because his sons have many business ties in Qatar and he himself has a Qatari passport and close personal ties with the ruling emirs family.
Israel not the top priority
Abbas also has an open account with Egypt, which grows the more he suspects that Egypt is trying to advance Dahlan at his expense. Egypt sees Dahlan as Abbas successor and made its support for him clear when it refused to allow Dahlans arch rival Jibril Rajoub enter for a conference in Sharm el-Sheikh on social policy and terror. So if the reports on agreements between Hamas and Dahlan are even partly true, Abbas could find himself not only against Dahlan in Gaza but against Egypt as well.
Disagreements between Hamas and Fatah and between Abbas and his political rivals in Fatah have so far served Israel, which bristles every time theres a possibility of reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas.
Even now, when the crisis in the Gulf is lapping at Gazas shore and making waves in the Palestinian world, Israel believes it can be pleased. But Israels cooperation with Egypt in fighting terror cant replace Egypts interest in punishing Qatar, putting Abbas in his place and asserting itself as landlord of the Palestinian issue. Egypt is no less responsible than Israel for the closure on Gaza and contributes its share to the electricity crisis by not increasing the power supply to the Strip.
But while Israels willingness to solve the electricity crisis isnt due to humanitarianism but fear of a violent outburst in Gaza, Egypt has other considerations. Egypt seeks to neutralize Qatar and Turkeys involvement in Gaza while distancing Hamas from Iran. This will force it to give something in return, even if its at Israels expense, like opening the Rafah crossing, which would thwart the effectiveness of the Israeli closure on Gaza.
Israel, which has dreamed of being accepted by the alliance of Sunni states, now realizes that even a distant crisis between Sunni states and their Sunni sister Qatar isnt an exclusively Arab affair. The crisis can shatter some of Israels strategic calculations because Gaza, at one side of the happenings, has become a pawn among the Arab states.
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