Likud and Kahol Lavan Tied in Election Polls, but Majority Coalition Remains Uncertain

Both major parties gain strength ahead of Israel's September 17 ballot, while Kahanist party Otzma Yehudit seen inching closer the electoral threshold

Benny Gantz speaks at a campaign event in Rahat, southern Israel, August 29, 2019.
Eliyahu Hershkovitz

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud and Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan parties are tied ahead of Israel's September 17 election, polls released Thursday by Channel 13 News and Channel 12 News show. (For the latest election polls - click here)

Both polls project both Likud and Kahol Lavan with 32 out of 120 Knesset seats each.

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According to the Channel 13 poll, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, who reiterated his desire to form a unity government with Netanyahu and Gantz, would gain 11 Knesset seats, while Channel 12 predicts it would gain 10. 

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Ayelet Shaked's right-wing union Yamina would gain nine-ten Knesset seats, according to the polls, which both predict the Arab-majority alliance Joint List would gain 10 seats.  

Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism is expected to get eight Knesset seats, according to both polls, whereas Shas is projected six seats in the Channel 13 poll and seven in the Channel 12 one.

The left-wing alliance Democratic Union would gain six-seven seats, according to the polls, while Labor-Gesher is projected five-six seats.  

According to both polls, Kahanist Oztma Yehudit hovers around the 3.25-percent electoral threshold, but still fails to pass it.  

The Channel 13 News survey was conducted by Prof. Camil Fuchs among 608 Jewish respondents and 151 non-Jewish respondents. Margin of error: 3.8 percent.

The Channel 12 News Survey was conducted by iPanel on September 4, 2019 among 508 respondents in a nation-wide, representative sample of the population age 18 and over. Margin of error: +4.4 percent.