Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud is trailing behind Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan by four seats in a new online poll released by Kan on Sunday, with 31 to Kahol Lavan's 35. Although Netanyahu is dogged by indictments, the poll shows, Likud's seats would drop to 27 were MK Gideon Sa'ar to take over the party.
Behind Kahol Lavan and Likud is the Joint List, projected to keep its standing as a major player with 13 seats. Behind them are Shas with nine, and kingmaker Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu with eight.
Rounding out the right-wing bloc are Hayamin Hehadash and United Torah Judaism with seven and six seats respectively. The poll gave neither Kahanist Otzmah Yehudit nor the Union of Right-Wing Parties, which broke off from Yamina following the previous election, enough seats to pass the electoral threshold. Labor-Gesher received a projected six seats and the Democratic Union five.
This leaves the center-left with 59 seats if it includes the Joint List, who is unlikely to join the coalition, and 46 if it does not. The right-wing-ultra-Orthodox bloc, which does not include Yisrael Beiteinu, would garner 53 seats. As in the previous two elections, neither bloc would have the majority needed to form a coalition.
The poll also asked how respondents would vote if the prime minister's rival for party leadership Gideon Sa'ar replaced Netanyahu as head of Likud. It projected Sa'ar's Likud as gaining 27 seats, Kahol Lavan 34, Yisrael Beiteinu seven, and the Union of Right-Wing Parties would cross the threshold with four. With the Union of Right-Wing Parties in the Knesset, the right wing block would grow by three seats to 56, despite Likud's losses.
With the exception of Kahol Lavan, which gained three seats, and Likud, which lost one, the poll's predictions mirror the results of September's election. It comes on the heels of Thursday's Channel 12 News poll, which projected 32 seats for Likud.
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The online Kan poll was targeted at 1316 Israeli voters, 559 of whom responded, with a margin of error of 3%.