Arie Levin envisions a time in the not too distant future when his microelectronic company, AVX Corporation, may no longer have operations in Israel.
- Due Dilligence / Thinking Our Way Out of the Export Slump
- Exporters Say Extra Government Aid Isn’t Enough
- Why the Israeli Shekel Should Lead the World
- Bank of Israel’s Intervention Fails to Boost the Weak Dollar
- Is a Strong Shekel Really So Bad?
Due to a sharp appreciation of the shekel against the dollar, AVX, which was founded in 1972 and makes components for wireless products, has already shifted some of its thin-film production from Jerusalem to the Czech Republic.
“The deterioration of the value of the dollar versus the shekel has contributed to a 20% increase in our costs, which narrows down the profit margins and forces us to look for other solutions,” says Levin, head of AVX Israel, which is 70% owned by Kyocera.
“I now have more Czech employees than Israeli,” he says, noting his Israeli workforce has shrunk to 250 from 600, with many of the layoffs coming in the past year as the shekel appreciated. “If nothing changes, I envision I will be under pressure to move more and more and that is the last thing I would like to do.”
The shekel stands at 3.47 to the dollar, near its strongest level since August 2011. It has appreciated 15% against the dollar over the past year and a half, making it among the world’s strongest currencies and hurting Israeli exporters.
With exports making up as much as 40% of economic activity, exporters have been vocal about their diminishing competitiveness, especially as it has coincided with a spike in salaries, food, fuel, electricity and petrol prices and other living costs, and economic weakness in Europe and the United States, Israel’s two largest trading partners. The strong shekel has also made imports cheaper, adding to local producers’ woes.
Many firms accuse the Bank of Israel and government of doing little while their profits shrink and factory job growth has been frozen the past two years. Companies say they are surviving by buying supplies abroad, cutting back on certain products for export and trimming other costs.
“The price you got two years ago in U.S. dollars is not enough today. It’s almost losing money,” says Sam Donnerstein, CEO of security door maker Rav Bariach.
Analysts believe Israel’s economy is going through a transition since the discovery of two huge offshore natural gas fields. Tamar started production a year ago, and the larger Leviathan is slated to come on line in 2016 or 2017, with 40% of reserves earmarked for export.
“Natural gas is going to be the driver of the economy,” says Bank Leumi chief economist Gil Bufman. “The export sector is paying the price of the strong shekel, which is in part due to natural gas.”
Prior to the global financial crisis, exports were growing by around 10% a year but Bufman doubts they will grow at double-digit rates again, even when the global economy recovers. Exports fell 0.1% in 2013 after a 0.9% rise in 2012.
“It’s a long-term process but it has been showing up clearly in the data the last few years,” Bufman says. “Something structural has changed in the economy and export element.”
Moving production abroad
The Manufacturers’ Association trade group estimates that nearly 30% of medium-sized and larger manufacturers now operate production lines abroad, up from 16% a decade ago.
At the same time, exporters are projected to lose about $4 billion in 2014 -- $3 billion in export deals that could have been won if a better price had been given and another $1 billion in local sales because imports have become cheaper.
That will result in 8,000 fewer new jobs, the group says, noting that sales of textiles, rubber, plastic, machinery, medicines, wood, paper and electrical equipment from local firms have slid between 6 and 20% over the past five years.
“It is really bad,” says Amir Hayek, the association’s CEO. “If the situation continues, manufacturers will have no choice but to move near customers or raw materials.”
The shekel has been underpinned by the start of natural gas production at Tamar a year ago. The sharp drop in fuel boosted Israel’s current account in the balance of payments to $7.2 billion in 2013 from $800 million in 2012.
The Bank of Israel set up a program to offset the gas impact on the current account, buying $2.5 billion of foreign exchange in 2013 with plans for another $3.5 billion this year.
The government has also established a sovereign wealth fund to prevent the so-called Dutch Disease, a situation in which exports of natural resources inflate the exchange of a currency and deter other exports -- but the fund has yet to begin operating.
Buying up dollars
In addition, the central bank has been buying foreign currency outside of the natural gas program when it believes the currency is not reacting to fundamentals. Since 2008, it has bought about $55 billion of foreign currency -- mostly dollars -- with $2.1 billion purchased in the first two months of 2014.
Its total of $84 billion of foreign currency reserves is even higher than that of Britain. The central bank contends that without the purchases, the shekel would be even stronger.
Interest rates have also been lowered to narrow the gap with other countries. The benchmark rate was reduced to 0.75% -- its lowest level since November 2009 -- from 1% in February, the fourth such move since the start of 2013.
While the Bank of Israel prefers a weaker shekel to help exports, it understands its reach is limited since a large part of the currency’s strength has been economic growth that has outpaced the rest of the West and large foreign capital inflows partly fuelled by the purchase of Israeli high-tech firms.
Despite a scant rise in exports, Israel’s economy grew 3.3% in 2013, helped by gas production, compared with average growth of 1.2% for countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The Bank of Israel expects 3.1% in 2014 and 3% in 2015, although on a per capita basis the rates are far lower due to Israel’s annual population growth of nearly 2%
Bank of Israel Governor Karnit Flug says that exporters must learn to live with a strong shekel.
“The more basic industries obviously have a harder time competing given the more appreciated exchange rate, and therefore, they really need to adjust and improve their ability to compete,” Flug told Reuters.
She says most of Israel’s exports are concentrated in the high-tech sector and can compete despite the stronger shekel.
“The appreciation of the exchange rate, most of it is actually coming from the fact that the economy is doing relatively well,” Flug says.
“It’s related to fundamentals. It’s related to the fact we have a current account surplus and we have substantial FDI (foreign direct investment) so these are part of the positive aspects of the economy, which leads to the appreciation. Some industries will definitely have to adjust,” she said.
According to the Israel Export Institute, there are more than 4,000 export companies in Israel.
For now, most are staying put, hoping that the Bank of Israel’s actions ultimately lead to a weaker shekel.
The government has vowed to help exporters but so far action has been mainly in the form of the Finance Ministry hedging some of its dollar-denominated debt by buying dollar forward contracts while the finance and economy ministries pushed through an aid package for exporters that includes an insurance boost.
“What we need to do is help exporters be more competitive and create more incentives to invest more in research and development,” says Morris Dorfman, deputy head of the National Economic Council in the Prime Minister’s Office.
Hayek, the Manufacturers’ Association chief, believes that for manufacturers to survive in the long term, a dollar-shekel rate of 3.80 is required, or a depreciation of 10% from current levels.
He and others have urged the Bank of Israel to support a floor for the exchange rate, although the bank has so far nixed the idea. Zvi Eckstein, a former Bank of Israel deputy governor, says a floor should be set around 3.3-3.4 shekels to the dollar.
“Everyone would agree that below 3.6 or 3.5 is out of the medium term equilibrium,” he says. “Once you set a limit to the strength of the shekel and the exchange rate is around that level for a while then it limits the ability of speculators to make money.”
Bank Hapoalim chief economist Leo Leiderman says a floor would benefit only speculators and that encouraging efficiency and productivity would be the best way to help exporters.
“Attractive countries go together with stronger currencies,” Leiderman says. “The lesson learned is central banks shouldn’t go against the general trend of the exchange rate.”