Election Poll After UAE-Bahrain Deal: Netanyahu Loses Seat as Far-right Alliance Surges

If elections were held today, Kahol Lavan would win almost half the number of Knesset seats it won in March, Channel 13 poll shows

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to sign the normalization agreement between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, in Washington, D.C., September 15, 2020.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House to sign the normalization agreement between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain, in Washington, D.C., September 15, 2020.Credit: Noam Galai

A Channel 13 election poll conducted after Israel, the UAE and Bahrain signed a peace accord in Washington Tuesday shows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party losing a Knesset seat since the previous survey.

Likud is still projected to lead with 30 seats – down from 31 last week – while the far-right Yamina alliance continues to surge to 22 seats, gaining one. In the current Knesset, the slate holds just six seats.

This would mean a clear majority for the right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc, with 66 seats, and just 46 for the center-left.

Behind Yamina is Yesh Atid-Telem, which remains at 18 seats (two more than its current Knesset standing). The Joint List of Arab-majority parties would garner 12 seats, losing one.

Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz's Kahol Lavan would fall from 11 seats in the previous poll to eight, nearly half of its current 15 Knesset seats. Yisrael Beiteinu and Meretz would garner eight seats each, both up two since the last survey, and the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism would remain at seven seats each.

The Labor Party, Gesher, Derech Eretz (which split off from Kahol Lavan) and Habayit Hayehudi would not pass the electoral threshold.

The survey also asked respondents which candidate is most suited to be prime minister. Thirty-one percent said Netanyahu, followed by Yamina's Naftali Bennett, who received 18 percent. Opposition leader Yair Lapid of Yesh Atid had 13 percent and Gantz 10 percent.

These answers are consistent with the previous poll, with the exception of Gantz, who had not been included prior. Another 28 percent of respondents said they did not know.

The poll was conducted by Prof. Camil Fuchs, and surveyed 703 people. The survey was written by the Project Midgam company, led by Dr. Ariel Ayalon, and by the StatNet company, led by Yousef Makladeh. It has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.

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