The Meteorological Service’s assessment is that Israel is going to have another dry winter, based on new European weather models, the rainfall to date and forecasts for December.
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The weather model came from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Israel uses its forecasts to survey the rainfall north of Be’er Sheva over the past 20 years. Based on this model, there is a 64.7 percent chance of insufficient rainfall in December, January and February, the primary rainy months.
Israel got only 45 percent of its multiyear average rainfall in September through November. While there is a 33 percent chance of a rainy period during January, February and March, the service believes that since there isn’t any significant rain forecast for the next two weeks, it’s going to be a dry winter.
Lake Kinneret has reached its lowest level in nine years and its lowest early-December level in 15 years.