The war against Iran's nuclear program has already begun
Explosions, deadly computer viruses and other sorts of 'accidents' - someone is targeting Iran's nuclear project: either the Western intelligence agencies, internal opposition groups, or both.
By Yossi Melman Tags: Iran nuclear Iran threatThe war is under way, though no one declared it and no one will confirm it. This is the secret war against Iran's nuclear project. It did not start this week or last month. It has been under way for years, but only faint echoes have reached the public.
In June 2010, the press reported that the computer system operating the uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz had been infected with a virus. A deadly worm, known as Stuxnet, had infiltrated the controllers, manufactured by Siemens.
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| Photo by: Alon Gaash |
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Two weeks ago, a huge blast ripped through a Revolutionary Guards military base 40 kilometers west of Tehran. The explosion could be heard as far away as the capital. Dozens of people were killed, including the head of Iran's missile development project, General Hassan Tehrani Moqaddam. This week, there was a powerful explosion in Isfahan, Iran's third-largest city, which has a uranium conversion plant on its outskirts. It is not yet clear what was damaged in the blast.
These incidents involved three key elements of Iran's nuclear program. The first is uranium conversion (which comes after the mineral has been mined ), the second is enrichment, and the third is the delivery means.
Coupled with other incidents, including the assassination of several Iranian nuclear scientists, these events have worried the ayatollahs' regime, causing reactions ranging from embarrassment to anger. The public response usually follows a pattern: first a sweeping denial, then a limp and stuttering admission that "something happened," and finally the claim that it was an "accident." This shows that the regime does not know exactly what to say, and that its voice is not uniform. It also reflects the fierce dispute within the regime's top ranks. The leadership is divided, and the reactions come from a range of ministries, rival organizations and competing media outlets.
The kind of sabotage used in Iran requires sophistication, financial and technological resources, agents and precise intelligence. Someone, for example, had to know that General Moqaddam would be at the base that day to supervise a test, apparently of a new missile engine.
Infecting the computers required access to them: A person with a flash drive had to have plugged it into the system. The prevailing assumption is that foreign intelligence agencies are initiating, managing and executing the secret operations.
The Iranians, and international media outlets, believe these operations are the work of Israel's Mossad and possibly also a Western partner such as the CIA or Britain's MI6.
The Mossad's campaign to assassinate the Black September members behind the 1972 Munich Olympics massacre was code-named "Wrath of God." This week, when asked whether God had carried out the recent operations in Iran, former Mossad head Meir Dagan smilingly said yes. Dagan is known to be an ardent supporter of secret operations, as he told Yedioth Ahronoth explicitly this week. He believes it will be at least two years until Iran can assemble a functioning nuclear weapon. This assessment may be based on past secret operations and on Dagan's faith that future actions can indeed disrupt Iran's progress.
A senior American official went even farther. President Barack Obama's special assistant and coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction, proliferation and terrorism, Gary Samore, said in May 2011, "I'm glad to hear they are having troubles with their centrifuge machines, and the U.S. and its allies are doing everything we can to make it more complicated." Do we need any clearer statement that humans are behind the "hand of God"?
Even if the Mossad or the CIA are not involved in these incidents, the speculation that they are serves Western intelligence bodies by enhancing their image as "omnipotent," and heightening the Iranian leadership's fear. This is known as psychological warfare.
Still, with all due respect for Western intelligence's great efforts - including what is probably unprecedented operational coordination - it is unlikely these operations could have succeeded without inside support, meaning from individuals or groups ready to help sabotage the ayatollahs' regime. It should be remembered that Iran is a mosaic of ethnic minorities, and almost all have reasons for disliking the regime; some have their own underground armed militias.
The theory about inside-help gains traction given that, in addition to the military targets, other sites - including oil facilities, gas pipelines, trains and military bases - were also damaged over the past year. Last year there was a considerable increase, of at least 10 percent, in "breakdowns" and "accidents" at Iran's strategic infrastructure sites. Some were caused by poor maintenance, due in part to the international sanctions, but the volume of these incidents may also indicate the "hand of God" was involved. If this is the case, then it's possible that internal Iranian opposition groups (as opposed to exiles ) are stronger and even better organized than generally thought.
It is almost certain that Tehran's patience is about to run out. This was evidenced by the student mob's "conquest" of the British embassy this week. This was not spontaneous rage: It was a warning from a regime that realizes someone has declared war on it without leaving marks or fingerprints.
Sooner or later, the ayatollahs' regime will decide to react and will order its secret intelligence and operational units to retaliate. If and when this happens, Iran will take steps to conceal its involvement in such activities. However, past experience proves that despite the caution and sophistication of the Iranian secret services, they have often failed in obscuring their fingerprints.
Read this article in Hebrew: המלחמה הקרה בין ישראל לאיראן
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In the shortrun it works only temporarily. Assassinating Gen. Ziaul Haque and his top Generals did not stop Pakistan's nukes. At some point, all these efforts will be overridden and then the state of Israel will be vanished. So, whoever adapting the wrong policy of sabotage and rivalry and confrontation for existence is damn wrong and needs psychiatric counselling. The only way Israel may survive is by creating brotherly relationship with it's Arab neighbours and doing sacrifice as much as needed short of lossing the state. Bring all exiled Palestinians and rename the country Israel-Palestine and both live in harmony. A jewish state is impractical in modern era; it is an antique idea and doing so you gain nothing but only lose peace.
With the Hand of God and open war, no ayatollah shall put his hands on nuclear weapons.
Israel is not just at risk. If Iran fires a missile, what guarantee is there that the missile will accurately find its target, just lose its way, or be electronically deflected to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, etc?
It must be said that the approach is not only clever, but vastly preferable to a conventional land war. Would that world leaders would practice this type of war instead--the costs are much lower both in terms of lives and funds, while the level of success for most of the conflicts around these days is probably just as effective as a conventional war.
Why do the nations rage and the people's plot in vain? toibry.blog.com
At some point-a sabatoge act will go one step to far. Overt or covert-war = war.
brains not anger is what is needed
I usually find Melman's assessments tainted with subtle racism towards Iranians - after being on this forum for over 7 years, this is the first time that I'm calling anyone racist, so you can imagine the length of my inventory of his articles to having concluded that. However, I also want to point to the fact that I find his intellectual aptitude in putting together pieces of puzzles and keeping track of largely disparate facts quite competent and a benchmark of a good analyst. For me, his pieces come undone in the conclusions that he usually arrives at. And all because he always manages to slip his own emotions that makes for skewed results. I agree with him that the sum of all these 'incidents' point to a concerted efforts of organized sabotage. To me it does point to specialized work of intelligence community outside of Iran (ie CIA, Mossad). The results are on a vertical axis (the flagship of specialized covert ops) as opposed to horizontal axis (work of disparate militias). The opposition movement widely known as the Greens has worked hard and at the ultimate price to make it a non-violent current. So I do not think they're involved. Another point I'd like to make, Mr. Melmen at your dismay, is that the MAJORITY of Iranians are against the regime. It doesn't just pertain to the minority ethnics. The majority is made up of Persians, Kurds, Azeris, Baluchis, Torkumans, Lors, Gilakis, etc. They also include muslims, christians, jews, bahais, zoroastrians, etc. The one thing in common among all, unequivocally, is that EVERYONE identifies with being Iranian FIRST and Persian, Azeri, Kurd, etc second. Just like if you ask any Persian Jews, they'll tell you they consider themselves Persian FIRST, and Jewsih second (a phenomenon not seen anywhere else among the Jews in particular). We have countless number of dissidents in prisons right now being tortured everyday and for someone like yossi to want to declare their struggles as minorities is an insult to their sacrifices. Of course there are teeny tiny minority militias such as the Wahhabi-schooled jundullahs but they are as poisonous as the regime itself and certainly not a representation of the minorities. We have precious Baluchis (not jundullah members) activitst, Kurdish activitsts, Azeri aActivists, Lori activitsts, Persian activists, mulsim activists, christian activists, bahai activists sitting in jails all over Iran and every single one of them condemns violence and what Melman's trying to insinuate. One last point, I'm surprised that it went unnoticed to melman (or maybe didn't but was intentionally left out) is the fact that Iran caught a dozen or so CIA agents in the last 2-3 weeks. I also find the firing of rockets from Lebanon into north Israel a couple of days ago a peculiarity, especially that they hit empty spots thus making them suspect warnings.
shooting down its passenger aircraft and sponsoring terrorist attacks by the Mujahedeen-e Khalq. Israeli attacks have been, I'm sure, somewhat less Cro-Mag in their obviousness. The only reason it isn't generally regarded as a war is because Iran has traditionally not fought back, although this seems to be changing.
Any actions whether direct military action or indirect methods such as terrorism by assassinating scientists etc will not stop Iran right to nuclear energy. Why the double standards,the Zionist state will pay a very heavy price,it could be the ultimate one...
I fear Iran based off information I have read through various internet searches. To me Iran represents ideological religious extremism, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad seems ready and willing to use any means necessary to bring about his own destructive goals. These goals to me are war and annihilation between western cultures. I fear an alliance between China, Russia, Venezuela, and Iran where Venezuela is used as a base to coordinate assualts against the western influences that the above countries see as undermining / threatening to their own growth goals. I list Russia in this mix only in that I admit not knowing nearly enough of their government and influence. I am not so arrogant that I am blind to the west conducting the same practices across the world, but it is my true belief that at least with the western philosophies I see prosperity as an outcome. Fear, control, and terror ( use your own definition for terror ) have been used by ruling governments /classes of people since civilization began. As I sit here in America and watch from a distance, I dread the day when China truly flexes it's own military muscle in this struggle. How much time until that takes place and what would be the outcome then?
If Obama would work with KPP and others inside Iran, Iran could be defeated. However, they need money and backing to make it work. It's called turning the tide on Iran with their meddling with the Hamas, Hezbollahs, Al Queda and Syria. Even Russia is supporting them and more help with the internal forces can turn the tide on Iran.
You can't have one rule for yourself and another for the rest. If Israel can indulge in sabotage then so can others - watch this space - Israel will get back what it gives out.
The persians wans to mislead even the home opinion with pursuing nuclear weapon and the greed of some countries turning blindeye on thisvhope want be for too long.Othervice it is far too dangerous the radoation last too long and kill people even after decades.dee hirosima nagasaki.
Tehran wil b infiltrated believe it or not thats how dirty this has became and i salutd any1 who had hv a hand in this
Great article, great analysis! Again and again Yossi Melman proves great journalism. When (if) Iran retaliates, I hope he will be on vacation in - the Caribean.
JUST LIKE IN THE PAST, GOD WILL PROTECT ISRAEL FROM HARM
A DEADLY computer virus, eh? haha. Cute.
excellent analysis
A long time from now, in a galaxy far, far away... there may come a time when the regime in Tehran looks back with regret about confronting the West. There was a time, when Iran's aim was to fly below the radar. But Clerics of Qum envision regional supremacy via Shia fundamentalism and the prophecy of fanatics. The fact that military experts fear mutual assured destruction may not apply to Iran. Leaves very few options other then covert intelligence. The difficulty becomes... predicting how a religious figure like Khamenei, who regards himself as the leader of the Muslim world would react to cyber-technology and 21st century war-games.
MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction, may not deter Iran as it did the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Ahmadjimajerk speaks of encouraging the Hidden Mahdi to return and bring on the Apocalypse. Iran may not be motivated by the usual rational considerations of state, but by an apocalyptic end-of-world theology.
If we are to assume the current sabotages are the hand of god's, why is it the west's policy also to create more resentment within the general public.The country can soon get united behind a regim however unpopular and then what. The west should take a long hard look at the pride that flourishes amongst ordinary people and should know the unfair policies they advocate is not just against the regim,,its against ordinary people too.
chosen chose disaster
Ultimately these creeps will get their bomb. If the US was able to do it 66 years ago, do you really think it is that hard now? Most of us, given the uranium, could probably do it in our kitchens.
After all we know about the power of Atom we won't even bother to try to create a nuclear weapon. But Iranian regime will conceal their struggle to bring us down on our knees for their satisfaction
it wont be long...these guys will be gone destroy each scientist, and facility one by one
and it will be
Iran must contain and Nuclear Iran could be very dengerous
When pakistan has the nuke and is a bigger threat to Israel. Wait for a ghauri strike from ilamabad on tel viv
Pakis who were given nukes by the Chinese and ghauri by the N.Koreans have no one to tell them exactly how to hit TeL Aviv unless given by someone or stolen from somewhere. Israel never waits for the disaster to come first. They act before it comes, thats what make Israel Israel. Pak nukes are no match for Israeli intelligence. You hate it or not Israel will never be wiped out by terrorists, they are protected.
Pakistan is a very confused country. Their Nuce power is more of a danger/problem for them than an advantage.
Why cant they beat the combined forces, the Iranians have allaah with them?
The problem is Iran will have help from China and Russia and probably a couple others as well. So it starts to get a little scarier at that point,don't you think? This is quite possibly the prelude to World War III with Israel and Iran as the front lines.
"Do not afraid" "This must be happen" "God has plan for us all" "Trust in God, Faith in God, Hope in God, and Believe in God" "Ask for Forgive, and You're Forgiven" "Be Repent, Be Baptized, and You will be saved" "Pray in Purpose of the Life" May God be with you all.
Does God understand broken English ?
It's all from Allah !
That is rthe God of Jews ?
God of Israel do not act as you wish or you think of Him to do. You cannot make the God of Israel to work as per ur thinking. He is not afraid of anyone. Since the God of Israel is the only God, you have so far failed in your all out effort to destroy Israel from under the heaven. You may take the help of Allah or any other gods, but you are doomed to utter failure, because Israel is still His chosen people.
best to keep your mouth shut !
By the way, been doing any serious study on how to build a peaceful State and join the world community of nations recently? Taking the path of least academic resistance and playing macho with Kalashnikovs instead ... well any fool can do that.