One year on, most Israelis disapprove of Netanyahu
Haaretz poll shows Likud gaining steam despite dissatisfaction with PM, while Livni still strong opposition.
By Yossi Verter Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu Likud Kadima Israel newsPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is losing altitude, according to the Haaretz-Dialog poll published here. The results show that, for the first time in a year, a majority of the public is dissatisfied with his performance and questions his suitability as prime minister.
This is purely personal, not party-related. Likud under his leadership is actually stronger: If elections were held today, the party would get 35 Knesset seats, eight more than its current total and 23 more than it received in 2006. Netanyahu took a broken, shattered party that had been split and decapitated by the predecessor of his predecessor - i.e., Ariel Sharon - and brought it back to life. No one can take that away from him.
Every few months, this poll, conducted under the supervision of Prof. Camil Fuchs from the Department of Statistics at Tel Aviv University, checks the prime minister's political health. Since his election, Netanyahu had been in pretty good shape. There were always more people who were happy with him than those who were not, generally with an 8-10 point spread in his favor. In the new survey, though, that situation has changed. When it comes to suitability for the premiership, Netanyahu still ranks ahead of his rival, Kadima leader Tzipi Livni. But the gap is narrowing: Not in her favor, but to his detriment.
Two reasons for this leap to mind. One is the "Sara effect." In the past three weeks, Netanyahu has been buffeted by negative, embarrassing reports about his domineering wife and about him personally, as well as about how he is dealing with her and about developments in his bureau.
But the main reason for the drop in his popularity is his decision to freeze construction in the settlements - something no right-wing prime minister before him ever dared to do. The dry facts tell the whole story: Netanyahu is losing support among right-wing voters (though not in the Likud). At the same time, he is gaining popularity among the center and the left. The voters on the right side of the political spectrum are disappointed with him. They still backed him after he declared his support for the two-state solution, but once he took a concrete step they started to turn a cold shoulder.
The alternatives
After almost a year in the opposition, Tzipi Livni remains the only significant political alternative to Netanyahu among the three large- or medium-size parties - even though Kadima almost slipped through her fingers; even though she is in the midst of a struggle against the party's No. 2, Shaul Mofaz; and even though Kadima's impact as an opposition power is negligible.
Fully 89 percent of Kadima voters prefer Livni over Mofaz. This finding shows how cut off he is from Kadima's voters (or, in this case, from the party's registered members, who determine its leadership). If Mofaz stays in Kadima, runs and defeats Livni, he will transform the party into something completely different from what it is today - he will make it a pale copy of Likud.
But in the poll, Kadima loses three seats to Labor, which has nine sweet seats, as opposed to six in the last Haaretz-Dialog poll, in November (and 13 in the last election). The reason: internal wrangling in Kadima. But the new data also indicate that half of Kadima's voters - 14 Knesset seats - would consider voting for a new party led by journalist and television presenter Yair Lapid.
Lapid also would draw many people from Labor and Meretz: In total, based on this survey, nearly a quarter of the country's voters would likely consider giving Lapid their vote. At the moment, he is in a dream spot for a wannabe politician. He is the presenter of the most watched current-events television program on Friday night; he writes a column in the country's most widely read weekend newspaper magazine; he is perceived as a victim because of the proposed "Lapid bill," a move by his opponents to block him from running in the next elections; he is gaining points from the well-publicized troubles of Kadima and from the built-in wretchedness of Labor; and he has just published a book about his late father, which became an instant best-seller. All he has to do now is rescue two babies from a burning house and nothing will be able to keep him from being elected prime minister.
On his way into the political arena, Lapid has to keep in mind the experience of one person: Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, the former chief of staff. Before he ran in the late 1990s, at the height of his popularity, the polls gave a party headed by him 20-plus seats. But the moment he actually entered politics there wasn't a mistake that he didn't make. Lipkin-Shahak ended up as No. 2 in the Center Party, whose six seats faded away in the twinkling of an eye. Lapid would do well to give him a call before he takes a commercial break and doesn't come back.
The successors
Shimon Peres had Yitzhak Rabin (and vice versa) as his right-hand man. Afterward he had Ehud Barak. Ariel Sharon had Benjamin Netanyahu. Each of those prime ministers had a "natural" successor, someone who was considered - by the political arena, his party and the media - as the one and only possibility. Netanyahu has no one, no No. 2.
The Haaretz pollsters asked about potential successors in Likud and Labor after the era of Netanyahu and Barak; the question was put to voters in general and not to the registered members who will choose the party's leaders. In Likud there are three potential heirs: Vice Prime Minister Moshe Ya'alon, Vice Prime Minister Silvan Shalom and Education Minister Gideon Sa'ar. The three are almost neck and neck, both among the general public and among Likud voters.
Sa'ar, a young minister serving his first cabinet term, has leaped forward and is now positioned alongside Shalom and Ya'alon, with Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz faltering, well behind. In the face of Ya'alon's magnificent military record (he was chief of staff) and of the senior government posts Shalom held (foreign affairs, treasury), Sa'ar's success as education minister is highly significant.
Among Labor and Meretz voters, only one successor to Barak looms at this stage: Social Affairs Minister Isaac Herzog. He is well ahead of MK Shelly Yachimovich and Minority Affairs Minister Avishay Braverman. Yachimovich, a fairly new MK, is doing pretty well - on the assumption that she and her colleagues will still have a party to lead.
The Labor Party shows a 50-percent increase - from six seats in the last poll to nine in this one. But the whole center-left camp has 48 seats, unchanged from the poll three months ago, whereas the right-wing bloc has 72 seats - also unchanged. In the current Knesset, the center-left bloc has 55 seats, as compared to 65 for the right. In short, a year after the elections, the right-wing bloc still remains dominant.
A lobby revived
On Tuesday afternoon, in the old lecture hall of the Knesset, the Land of Israel lobby was reborn. It was first established 22 years ago by Likud MK Michael Eitan. A right-wing parliamentary body, its main effort was devoted to tightening the settlers' hold on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Now, with Gaza gone, MK Zeev Elkin (Likud) and MK Aryeh Eldad (National Union) decided to recreate the lobby. Elkin is the chairman of the Likud faction and the coalition, both of which are headed by a prime minister who declared his support for the two-state solution and ordered a construction freeze in the settlements. In the near future, Elkin will have to muster support for that policy among the coalition members, while heading a body that preaches against it.
The new lobby's basic principles include "strengthening Israel's hold throughout the Land of Israel and particularly in Judea-Samaria," "preventing any harm from befalling the settlement project in Judea-Samaria," "promoting legislation that will bolster settlement in those regions," and "refashioning the policy of the defense establishment for the benefit of promoting settlement in these regions." And so on.
In addition to a large number of MKs, the founding meeting was attended by all the leaders of the settlement movement, Knesset Speaker Reuven Rivlin (Likud) and two Likud ministers: Communications Minister Moshe Kahlon and Minister without Portfolio Benny Begin, who is also a member of the "forum of seven," the supreme body in the government. Both ministers expressed support for the lobby's principles, which are totally at variance with those espoused by Netanyahu. Begin even told the meeting: "In the months ahead, in the years ahead, we shall have to work together, and work together we shall."
Work for what? Against whom? Against what?
The other Likud ministers were no-shows, but sent touching messages of support. "Strengthening our hold throughout the Land of Israel and in the Golan Heights is a basic, existential and security need whose roots lie deep in history," one minister wrote.
"Even though I am not there with you, my heart is definitely with you. May you only increase and grow stronger," another poeticized. "We are there and we will remain there thanks to our forefathers," said another. "We must encourage settlement activity in all parts of the land," a fourth minister asserted. And so on.
In fact, the only two ministers who did not send messages were Netanyahu and Dan Meridor. One who did was Eitan, who founded the lobby in 1988. He wrote Elkin that he believes the lobby's goals are more compatible with those of the extremist National Union than with Likud and the coalition, that the lobby is misguided and that its views are in "thunderous contradiction" to Netanyahu's policy. "I suggest that you look for a different path," Eitan wrote.
MK Eldad didn't know in advance what Eitan had written. At the start of the meeting he solemnly informed those present that he would soon read the letter sent by the founder of the original lobby, Michael Eitan. Everyone applauded warmly. The letter was not read out. Who wants to be a party pooper?
After the meeting, the settler leaders made their way to the MKs' cafeteria. At the entrance, one of them ran into Ze'ev Boim, a former Herut and Likud man, but of late in Kadima. "Ze'evik, join us, be part of the lobby," the settler urged Boim.
"And what will we do there?" Boim asked.
"We will save the Land of Israel," the settler replied, and laughed loudly and long.
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. |
| Photo by: (Archive) |
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The video's are taken secretly and smuggled out of Gaza so I disagree with your assessment of that. At least you acknowledge the Pal Propaganda. You ask "why should people care?" Because it shows the Pals lie to elicit undeserved sympathy. Obviously the truth won't do that for Hamas! Ron: "If Hamas treats the Gazan population harshly, does that justify the Israeli blockade of Gaza in somebodys mind?" It reveals the double standards of Hamas. Israel's blockade is a non-violent response to rocket attacks. Ron: "Do it help with moral equivalency?" There is no moral equivalency! Israel actions are for defense. Hamas's actions are for political differences or singing at weddings. This was true in Lebanon(1980's) the 18,000 PLO terrorists (5-6 thousand mercenaries included)harshly treated the Lebanese people. So there is a precedent to show it's common. Muslims can kill Muslims without repercussions. You compare IDF defensive actions to unprovoked Hamas attacks.
The first video appears phony because the film maker, if making a propaganda film, would hardly show gunmen firing 100s of rounds from automatic weapons purporting to kill civilians, and not show one shooting victim. There is probably a good reason: there weren't any. If the propagandist is trying to prove gunmen are killing civilians, he should be fired for not filming one. This is either Israeli or Fatah propaganda. The other websites you list appear to be Palestinian propaganda films. Is there some reason why anyone should care about these films? Do they have any impact on anything? Do Israeli or Palestinians watch these things? If so, why?? If Hamas treats the Gazan population harshly, does that justify the Israeli blockade of Gaza in somebodys mind? Do it help with moral equivalency?
While I agree with your assessment of the second video the first one seems clear. Here is a broadcast from Hamas: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0wJXf2nt4Y Here they admit the use of human shields in their battle against Israel. The first video on my last post seems clear that Hamas is killing their own people. You say the "the websites are suspect", I'm sure you have seen the infamous Pallywood video with the staged and fabricated confrontation with the IDF here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_B1H-1opys Or the Gaza beach staged seen here: http://www.seconddraft.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=422&Itemid=171 Ron can you show me anything even remotely similar on the Israeli side. Now I'm not talking about just simple cover up stories as can happen in any country i.e. Pat Tillman here in the U.S....the fact is Hamas treats it people brutally i.e. Hamas summary executions in the Goldstone report, the Fatah killings by Hamas with the takeover of Gaza.
Why did you fail to tell your readers that the same poll showed the following: "May our continued presence in the territories lead to a bi-national state? Yes 28% No 53%" You published that result in the Hebrew version of this story in the pie grams accompanying the article (without comment) but failed to print the same pie grams (translated in English) in the English version of the same story. I hope you explain your reasons for this material difference between the Hebrew and English articles.
The thrust of the artiticle when you cut away the horse race stuff is that the Israeli electorate has shifted further to the right. If an election were held today, the rightist block would increase from 65 to 72 seats. And, according to the article, that's because of the construction freeze, partial and ineffectual though it may be. So majority of the electorate says continue building. What happens then as the settlements expand. What does the growing right wing block think ought to be done with all those Palastinains? Right wingers often acuse lefties of being in denial as to Palastinian hostility and ultimate goals, and they have a point. But what about right wing denial? How can the righties support settlements and pretend that that it has no impact on Palastinains? Righties disavow apartheid or expulsion, but what is their alternative (besides avoiding the question)?
when someone resorts to name calling it usually means thaey are incapable of proving the opposition wrong. "So you are saying that if Ben Gurion said it in 1938 that must still be the opinion of "Israel"?"Y If you had read my whole post you would have noticed that I qouted three Israeli pm,s who covered a time period of some 50 years. You may comfort your self with self delusionary claims that Israel wants peace---but the record shows a very different picture. Go look at the Likud Charter and tell me where it agrees to a Palestinian state.You will find it states clearly there will never be one. But how would we expect an illegal settler and land thief living in a Jews only racist entity to tell the truth. "Last time I checked "Israel" is a country made up of people with a wide range of opinions."Y sure and that is why they voted in the most right wing gov to date I do hope you will like living in the New Bi National state as a minority and that you get as good as you gave
Reliable information about Gaza is hard to find. Sources on restrictions of journalists by Hamas is not reliable, because Israel restricts access to Gaza by foreign journalists, and there is no ready data about news media even being published today in Gaza. The web sites you recommend are suspect. Having lived among Arabs, there is frequent gunfire in the air to celebrate, intimidate or for no reason The video shows a lot of firing, but not one dead body. To find the source of either video is impossible. The person, reportedly Hamas, dragging a child to a standing group of older people, while others stroll casually in the street, hardly implies the gunman intends to hide behind the child.The claim that Hamas treats its people worse than the IDF is an absurdity. Hamas is not trying to starve its population to death. It is doubtful that you in Georgia, have access to any information to back up any claims of developments in Gaza. In short, Mark, you aren't a good source.
So you are saying that if Ben Gurion said it in 1938 that must still be the opinion of "Israel"? Last time I checked "Israel" is a country made up of people with a wide range of opinions. Perhaps you have a conspiracy theory how "Israel" runs the world and is working towards a grand plan of dominance? I think the main difference between Israel and the local Arabs is we are seeing Israel try to adapt to changing environments, whereas the Palestinians are completely inflexible and instead use bombs and tools like you to force Israels hand.
The way to go is right .
"most israelis" is a big word to translate the outcome of this poll. nothing scientific on it
to expand into other peoples land. In 1938, Ben-Gurion made it clear of his support for the "Jewish state" on part of Palestine was only as a stepping ground for a complete conquest. He wrote: "[I am] satisfied with part of the country, but on the basis of the assumption that after we build up a strong force following the establishment of the state--we will abolish the partition of the country and we will expand to the whole Land of Israel." (Expulsion Of The Palestinians, p. 107 & One Palestine Complete, p. 403) * One day after the UN vote to partition Palestine, Menachem Begin, the commander of the Irgun gang and Israel's future Prime Minister between 1977-1983, proclaimed: "The Partition of Palestine is illegal. It will never be recognized .... Jerusalem was and will for ever be our capital. Eretz Israel will be restored to the people of Israel. All of it. And for Ever." (Iron Wall p. 25) * ""Shamir has said Israel must keep the territories in order to accommodate the immigrants. "A great aliyah [immigration]," he said, "requires a Greater Israel."(5) He has insisted that, although Soviet Jews are not being directed to the territories, any Jew has the right to live anywhere in the land of Israel, which for most Israelis includes the territories.
Similar leader "improvements" are proposed for us, now: Silvan Shalom instead of Netanyahu... Not that I love Netanyahu! Far from it! Plus that his anti-freeze politics, and in general all his politics, are harming Israel in an enormous way. But, any other Likudnik is much worse than him - politically - and insignificant as a politician; Silvan Shalom included. In short, one thing cannot be taken away from Bibi: that he is a powerful politician. And Isaac Herzog instead of Ehud Barak.... This looks almost like a joke.
from the inevitable dive to OBLIVION is to insure that there is an HONEST Peace with the Palestinians people. If he achieve this , who knows, he may even get a Nobel Prize for P E A C E , for his effort. Go for it my PM.
Premature election propaganda will not change the fact that since the last intifada, Israel has moved way to the right, the new generation that will vote the next election are more educated about the Palestinians true intention than ever, while the professors in Tel Aviv University are in total denial of these facts. These articles are testimony of the futile attempts by the left to deny reality.At least admit that giving up land for peace has proven to be a dismal failure. or x000 rockets, and that the Arabs are just as determined today as in the past to eliminate the State of Israel.
Netanyahu didn't even win the election that made him Prime Minister
When is a "settlement" a "colony".?
Similar leader "improvements" are proposed for us, now: Silvan Shalom instead of Netanyahu... Not that I love Netanyahu! Far from it! Plus that his anti-freeze politics, and in general all his politics, are harming Israel in an enormous way. But, any other Likudnik is much worse than him - politically - and insignificant as a politician; Silvan Shalom included. In short, one thing cannot be taken away from Bibi: that he is a powerful politician. And Isaac Herzog instead of Ehud Barak... This looks almost like a joke.
So, it's not all bad news coming out of Israel then!!
They elected olmert and peretz and angry at bibi because of his wife. The maid made almost double minimum wage between sara netanyahu and her company. She stayed on for six years until he became PM so she could get all the press. The israeli public is so far left it is a joke. Ehud Olmert was put in power that tells you all you need to know about israel.
How about thirty years in jail?
Will present a sort of guaranteed peace plan. One that will guarantee no more rocket attacks. The entire world is always condemning Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for allowing the construction to go ahead, so he halts it, to appease the world and the Palistinians. Now its time for them to do their part.
by putting a temporary freeze on construction, thereby giving a peace plan a chance to materialize for all parties.
The country supports bibi.
Netanyahu is weak and seems to cave in to Obama or at least give the appearances of doing so, but Livni would be a total failure and disaster for Israel. Her manifold failures are now a historical fact. That is why she is presiding over a fractured and dying party. No, I'm not buying the assertion that most Israelis disapprove of Netanuahyu. This is tripe. Who do they disapprove of most, Livni or Netanyahu? There is no doubt. Livni has lost this horse race and rules over a despicable sorry excuse for a miserable little party.
If Bibi reads this poll, he will most certainly have to start another war to cover his failing numbers.
Leiberman 's BIG mouth. getting rid of him will boost bibi's polpularity.
Once upon a time America was sold a 'New Nixon." I bought it. But once he was in office and the ad wrap was removed, it turned out he was the Old Nixon. Did anyone in Israel believe Bibi would be any better the second time than the first? Why?
Hamas rules with an iron fist, journalist are unable to voice their true opinions or the peoples true feelings. Yet nothing is ever said about that. In Gaza your can be killed for singing at a wedding and journalists and their families are routinely threaten with death and torture. Hamas criticizes the IDF for maltreatment of Palestinians while they themselves treat their own people much worse. As can be seen here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_OGhj43GAE&NR=1&feature=fvwp or here: Using their kids as human shields http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TejVJWSTTpY&NR=1
Netanyahu is perhaps the worst possible PM Israel has ever had. At a time when Arab countries were beginning to move towards a comprehensive solution to the conflicts (the Saudi plan)and Iran increasingly alienates Muslims in all corners of the world Netanyahu and Lieberman as his mouthpiece has all but destroyed any progress made. In the name of Zionism and peace with its neighbors Israel must wake up and make a change before it's too late. I fear it may already be too late and if it stays on the current path there will be no Jewish State sooner rather than later.
... lucrative jobs in government... ... creating not only a record number of ministerial posts... ... but also a plethora of deputy and vice ministers, and suchlike meaningless roles... ... often totally redundant... ... but all of whom are sure to vote 'yeah' when called upon... ... ya, it sure is a remarkable personal achievement... ... for which Israel may yet pay dear...
...Netanyahu is too far to the left.
maybe you talk to leftist who are gladly give amay israel and maybe caim that ashkelon and sederot part of gaza like all your members. i did not expect anything better
That would only be the case if you Poll Left wing readers !
everyone who has been choose should be chosen to lead again....so where is the real talent? in the diaspora?
I only read it to see what the left is thinking. In fact sometimes I think it is so left that your articles are written by Arabs.