Dubai hit - another move in the Israel-Iran cold war
The two regional powers are fighting for influence in the Middle East and threatening mutual destruction.
By Aluf Benn Tags: Iran Israel newsThe assassination of Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Mahbouh in Dubai, allegedly perpetrated by Israel, was another expression of the all-out cold war between Israel and Iran. The two regional powers are fighting for clout and influence in the Middle East, threatening mutual destruction and harassing each another with clandestine action.
The hostility has been going on for years, but this month there has been more talk of an actual war breaking out, during the "crucial year" of 2010. The American administration is now trying to avoid an explosion; that is President Barack Obama's main challenge in the region.
The current Israeli-Iranian hostilities are reminiscent of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War, and Israel's war for influence against Gamal Abdel Nasser's Egypt in the 1950s and '60s, and against Yasser Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization in the '70s and the '80s. They have similar characteristics: profound ideological rejection of the foe, threats against its existence, an arms race, clandestine global activity, supplying arms to allies, diplomatic alliances with regional and global powers, an economic boycott and diplomatic isolation.
Every few days, the Iranian news agency IRNA posts to its Web site a promise by an Iranian leader that the Zionist regime is on the verge of collapse. Or a soothing message that Israel is weak and incapable of attacking Iran, or that if it does attack, it will be punished. Or encouragement for anti-Zionist rabbis in Europe and calls to try "Israeli war criminals" over their deeds in Gaza. Even Prof. Ilan Pappe, "the Israeli dissident," is mentioned favorably.
The Iranian message: Zionism is a criminal ideology responsible for shocking war crimes. The Zionist regime is not legitimate, and will inevitably collapse if faced with determined "resistance."
Furthermore, according to the Iranians, Saudi Arabia is attacking Yemen as part of an American and Israeli plot. This sounds ridiculous until we recall the story the Israeli Air Force journal published two years ago about the secret military aid Israel gave the pro-Saudi royalists in their war against Nasser. History is repeating itself.
Just as the Iranians are saying they are not against Jews, but only Zionism, the Israeli leaders are explaining they love and respect the Iranian people but oppose only the regime. They blame Iran for all the security troubles facing Israel, from suicide attacks to rockets and Qassams, but add that if the ayatollahs were to be cast out, we could love again, as in the days of the shah.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls Iran "the new Amalek" because of its attempts to obtain nuclear weapons. The Book of Deuteronomy (25:19?) exhorts: "Thou shalt blot out the remembrance of Amalek from under heaven."
Airport "doctrine"
This week the public threats peaked. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned that Israel is planning to launch a war "in the spring or the summer" and said that if this happens, "The resistance and the states in the region will wipe out this false regime."
Last week Ahmadinejad announced that his country could build an atomic bomb. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah marked out targets - Tel Aviv and Ben-Gurion International Airport, which would be bombed if Israel were to attack Beirut and Hariri Airport. In the face of Israel's "Dahiya doctrine" (i.e., destruction of Lebanese infrastructure if Israel comes under rocket fire again), Hezbollah is proposing the "Ben-Gurion International doctrine."
Nasrallah, like his Iranian friend, spoke about self-defense in the face of Israeli action, and not about initiating an attack. Here, too, it is hard to ignore the symmetry in the threats. Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah's remarks resemble Israel's warnings against a Syrian "miscalculation" three years ago. In the end, Syria did nothing and Israel bombed the nuclear installation near the Euphrates River.
Are Iran and Hezbollah plotting to attack under the cover of warnings against Israeli aggression? Nasrallah's explanation sounds like an exact copy of Lieberman's statements that Syria's ruling Assad family will fall from power if it takes on Israel. Nasrallah and Lieberman believe boastful threats are the most effective deterrence.
Meanwhile, the public is staying calm on both sides. Here, too, Tel Aviv and Beirut are mirror images of each other. Both cities have been threatened with destruction in the next war. Both have seen an insane increase in real estate prices - both gained 37 percent over the past year, according to TheMarker and the Global Property Guide Web site. The skylines of both coastal cities are changing rapidly as luxury apartment towers multiply - the first buildings likely to collapse under bombardments and missile attacks.
Conclusion: The Israelis and the Lebanese do not believe the threats. Were they really afraid of "a second Holocaust" and the destruction of their cities, they would no doubt be seeking refuge overseas and not wasting millions of dollars on luxury apartments that would be destroyed.Yet, it would be a mistake to dismiss the reciprocal threats as empty words intended for "domestic consumption." This is also how Israel explained Nasser's threats until the entire region was swept into the Six-Day War. Then, too, each side claimed its enemy wanted to attack it. Cumulative escalation could explode if it is not identified and defused - and that is what the top American officials are trying to do, as they set out for the Middle East to calm tempers.
The old cliche "the Arabs have the oil and we have the match" has been proven again: The American administration has not invested nearly as much effort in aiding the suffering Palestinians as it has now put into preventing a regional eruption that would send energy prices sky high. Israel's threats against "Amalek" and its Syrian, Lebanese and Palestinian partners disturb the Americans far more than the expansion of the Jewish settlements in the West Bank and Jewish housing in East Jerusalem.
Next month U.S. Vice President Joe Biden will visit Jerusalem. He is expected to warn Israel against a preventative attack on Iran's nuclear installation, as U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Michael Mullen did this week. The public warning gives the Americans diplomatic cover: They have told the Israelis not to act. But attacking Natanz, like Israel attacked the reactors in Iraq and Syria, is just one possible scenario. And what if the Lebanese front ignites, Iran backs Hezbollah and Israel retaliates in the name of self-defense? Or if, vice versa, Israel takes action in the north and Iran bombs it?
Netanyahu will meet with Obama twice in the next few weeks, when he visits Washington for the conference of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee lobby and during the international nuclear conference. The Iranian threat will star at both events, the prime minister will have plenty to say, and the president will have plenty to hear.
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And it shows.. how long do they think they can hang on to their nuclear monopoly of the middle east.. after Iran gets nukes.. then Turkey.. SA.. Egypt.. and so on. Give it up.. feed your hungry.. do something useful with the 3 Billion dollar yearly welfare check.
Israel is not threatening the Iranian people nor threatening to annihilate them, the same can not be said of the Iranian leaders who aren`t calling for air strikes on Israeli military basis but rather civilian population centres. That`s the difference,"Jonathan Or did you also mean Lebanon 2 style where Israel pounded the crap out of Beirut. better get out of that london fog---it is clogging up your thinking.
to preach to HZB not to dare something like that, also the same goes on for Iran. Israel never attacked Lebanon, unless HZB provokes it. When HZB provokes it means they are ready for a fight. The next confrontation would not be like the last. Last lebanon war we fight with white gloves in our hands. War is hell dear but if we could not avoid we do the fight. My suggestion to you is don't provoke them, don't give them courage to provoke a war, if you don't want to give harm to these guys, otherwise the result would disastrous. "One thing Israel can be sure of though is Hezbollah, unlike the IDF, will not use white phophorous or cluster bombs in civilian populated ares." Sure that means you are going to use Chemical weapons. Aby
Which presents the reality:Israel looking for hegemony in Middle East and for this she sees Iran as a rival.Maybe Aluf Benn will explain what borders Israel thinks is possible to get when she'll reach ME's hegemony.Of course is an insane dream but suit well persons like bibi,Olmert,lieberman,peres,tzipi,barak etc
Most of the countries involved in war talk, use this for domestic consumption. It is useful, especially when local politics have shown certain failures. It keeps the good folk focused on the "outside" threat. True enough, both Israel and Lebanon are on a building spree, with rocketing real estate prices. Unlike some failed members in the EU. Where recession has bitten deep into the pockets of so many. Thousands of brand new apartments blocks in Spain lay empty. Greece and Portugal have both shown minute above zero growth. The ME grows, funny enough even Iran, which has an amazingly young population, well educated, with a rich history cannot rid itself of this strange inward looking regime. The same happened with the communist regime in the old USSR. Change will come. Meanwhile, the ME advances, for man, knows that politics are transitory. Here today, gone tomorrow. Good day.
From what is in the news, it looks like "Iran vs Israel" is just another manufactured crisis designed to postpone dealing with the Palestinians. Tel Aviv commercial interests driving foreign policy.
It's is not for lack of trying. I assume the security within israel is too good for reprisals right now. Maybe Hamas and Hezbollah need to rethink reprisals outside of Israel. Like Prescott Arizona. Your neck of the woods.
The USA will not stop flow of arms to Israel. It does not do any good for the USA for Israel to be wiped out. As well Israel is well stocked. 2ndly. As much as Israel might be "offending" her European friends....they also do not want Israel to fall. These European countries have large Moslem populations. Having them strut around with their normal beligerency is one thing. Having them taste the blood of a victory over Israel will make them chomp at the bit for more and more from their European politicians. Bottom line is Israel is the songbird in the coal mine. If Israel dies so will Europe.
I have heard lots of high ranking Israelis, and officials from many western countries say that Iran has threatened to wipe out Israel. They attribute this statement to Iran's Ahmadinejad. I believe he was misquoted...please correct me if I am wrong. Please produce a quote and the context or quit repeating this.
yes, you right about it....but you cant see the other side of the coin...if a situation like that happens, and Israel get's faced with her destruction, what will prevent the country to nuke all that ppl? Remember, Iran may get a bomb, but israel have hundreds of them, in the end, the arabs have a lot more to lose than israel
What is the benefit? What is the cost? Do you think about the cost while wanting the benefit? Any good leader does. Any good administrator does. Anyone who is not a fool does. What kind of fool doesn't?
We have reached the point where spin is all that matters. A bad guy got whacked. He made some mistakes and the Keystone Kops got him. The problem for Israel right now is that it got caught and it had committed crimes against allies in pursuit of the bad guy. The problem for Netanyahu is trying to turn what has become a fiasco into a victory. Even more, turning a fiasco which has backfired, done more harm to Israel than Hamas, into a great victory. Aluf Benn is there to spin away. Others will, and have. Was whacking one guy who deserved to be whacked worth the price of whacking him? Bibi thinks so. The rest of the world thinks not.
Iran probably would love the military escalation with Israel, but only if 3 conditions are present: 1 All four of its axis (Iran, Syria, Hezb & Hamas) will all get involved , not Israel against any one of them. 2 They want to be sure they will inflict material & significant damages & casualties on Israel. 3 Under any circumstances to make it look like Israel is the initiator. Therefore I doubt they are plannning an attack on Israel. What they are planning is all sorts of possibilites and ventures into how to gauge Israel into being even arguably the initiator. Than apply the chain reacttion of self protection and cooperation agreements. Yes, the closer Iran gets to the nuclear weaponry and delivery, even the mere existance of such possibilities gauges Israel into preemption. But if talking not too distant future (within this year),the `gauging` from the North is much more realistic. Especially if Iran somehow gets into serious,expedited hot waters & pressure via the West.
In their past aggressions, Israel was able to avoid serious death and damage from those attacked. If Netanyahoo is foolish enough to attack Iran, its enemies are now armed to the extent that the scale of death and destruction that they will cause is beyond the imaginings of most Israelis. Whatever tactical or propaganda benefit Israel might gain by attacking Iran will be forgotten when Israelis realize the price they must pay. In 2006, there were 1500 Lebanese fatalities - can Israel live with that number of Israelis killed?
I agree that the Iranians want to politically and military dominate the ME and be the most powerfull player there. That however can only be archieved if one controls that special things that makes the ME so important for the world and espescially the US: The flow of Arab OIL. Iran must attack US control over flow of Arab OIL if their goal is to be archieved at all. Israel may be target 2, but I do not even buy that, because Iranians have no true deep and historically grown hate for Israel, but the mullah's do have that for the US and the Saudi's. (The Shah executed Ayatollah's in his days, the keepers of the holy sites always looked away). Iranians can hate Arabs much easier then Jewish Israeli's. He who control the Arab OIL producers and can make them listen to and fear you the most, he controls the flow of Arab OIL and thus will be the alpha player in the ME. Isral is a lever,alibi and scapegoat for Iran to get there.
Fair Enough, I take your word on your comment and not being a Jew Hater... As you said it, and we as jews and Israelis, we know that we are seen as the Bad kid in the neighbourhood... We are not asking for the world and not even the Americans, to love us... Just be balanced in light of the situation... True the palestinians are seen as the underdogs, but you will be surprised that the majority of israelis want to see them with their own state. We may have made mistakes but the bottom line is: When, for the Palestinians, the desire of having a state will be greater than destroying israel... I can assure you, their will be peace... I also suggest that you look up: www.jpost.com to have the right's view. Good luck...
Mark is correct. Iran and others will get the bomb. We should at the least prefer future order to be ensured by international cooperation and respect for institutions. To put pressure on Iran in its own way, and give credibility to the international effort, Israel should announce it is a member of the nuclear club and proceed to join the applicable treaties.
With friends like the arabized EU, the UN, and Obama, who needs enemies. The only true friend of the Jews and Israel is G_d. We only have to answer to him, not the appeasing week-kneed liberal wimps. Don't underestimate Israel, with it's 5th largest military in the world. They can wipe out Iran, Lebanon, and Syria in one swoop. It's the oil thirsty EU and Japan that keeps the US from green-lighting Israeli action. We here in the US have hundreds of years worth of proven oil reserves. That's discovered, and no telling what we haven't discovered yet. Iran has been waging war against the US and Israel since 1979; it's someone put a stop to them, and it won't be Obama.
will develop a nuclear weapon and there isn't a dam thing the world can do about it. In my opinion every country should have a nuclear weapon then there would be no more wars. would Israeli have bomb Syria if it had a nuclear weapon? no! and the same goes with Lebanon and Palestine. This is their fear if they all get nuclear weapons israli army will be negated and it won't be the bully in the block and it will lead to there own implosion as a jewish state.
The 'mass aerial exercises' that you mention are training exercises for attacking Iranian nuclear facilities, to restrict Iran's development of an atomic bomb, like Israel did against Iraq's Osirak facility. Israel is not threatening the Iranian people nor threatening to annihilate them, the same can not be said of the Iranian leaders who aren't calling for air strikes on Israeli military basis but rather civilian population centres. That's the difference,
. . . it actually did so, in the literal sense that Ajmadinejad means, i.e. when you look at a map, anthother political entity is there. Avi, did you oppose "wiping the Soviet Union" off the map and replacing it with the sem-democratic republics there today? Try as it might, I don't think the Israel lobby will be able to convince the American public that the Iranian regime is making a threat of extermination. What the Koran requires is Muslim domination over the Jews (and that's bad enough), not their elimination.
From your response I get the feeling that you think I am some kind of Jew-hater or that I hate Israel as a country. I assure you it is not so. If I wanted to spew anti-Jewish or anti-Israeli sentiments I could do it on so many other sites where they actually condone such things. No. I am reading Haaretz and posting on this talkback because I wish to hear the news about Israel from those who witness them firsthand: Israelis. As chance would have it, this site is left-leaning, as am I when it comes to ME. If you have other Israeli sites where one could gain more insight into Israel, regardless of their political leaning, I'd be more then happy to visit them. As a European citizen, in my previous post, I just wrote how most of us in this part of the world view latest Israeli- Iranian feud. As for the book: I'll look it up and if I find it you can be sure I will read it. I may not agree with what Israeli government does, but that doesn't mean I wish to see Israel destroyed.
As the article states 'The Iranian message: Zionism is a criminal ideology responsible for shocking war crimes. The Zionist regime is not legitimate, and will inevitably collapse if faced with determined "resistance." Translators (Juan Cole) of Farsi confirm Iran has never threatened Israel with annihilation nuclear or otherwise. The widespread belief Iran has said it would pre-emptively attack Israel is based on fear, paranoia, stupidity, and very dangerous political posturing. Also common sense dictates Iran is not going to initiate action that kills millions of Moslems etc and its own destruction, etc. It is the USA and Israel who do pre-emptive strikes. Who fired the first shots in the 67 war? What exactly are Israel's terms for peace with the Palestinians? How does 350,000 settlers in West Bank help Israel security? Unless of course the occupiers are more about colonization and fulfilling God's promise as well as supplying 30% of ISrael's national water supply.
Dino... The fact that you visit and participate in an online Isareli news site.... Is that after all you wonder how is this tiny country and its people are still on the face of this earth... To add to you disappointment and I hope you have the guts to do this... Please, read the book: STARTUP NATION....!!! Hope you do that..
extract: Or if, vice versa, Israel takes action in the north and Iran bombs it? If Israel attacks Lebanon, Iran will not intervene directly. It doesn't have to. Hezbollah is now armed with missiles, not mere rockets, that can precisely target what it wants to hit in Tel Aviv and the airport. One thing Israel can be sure of though is Hezbollah, unlike the IDF, will not use white phophorous or cluster bombs in civilian populated ares.
JJ.... Why should we even spend time to make people like you, reason...?? The fact is: Ahmedinajad, Saddam, Bashir Assad from Syria, are exterminators in their own right... They are doomed to fail, soonner or later... In the meantime, Israel as alaways, will do what it has to do... Get a grip!!!
I can see you are radiating with optimism Moshe, and yes, on the first glance everything is going in Israel's favor when it comes to this miniature Cold War between Israel and Iran. But, one thing you overlooked when comparing Israel to the US and Iran to the USSR: allies. Israel, unlike US, is starting to run out of friends in the world. Insults, scandals, outright lies, Palestinian question. All this is isolating Israel from it's traditional European(and American, truth be told) friends. Meanwhile Iran has quiet(and not so quiet when it comes to the neighbors of Israel) backing of the whole Arab world. If Israel remains alone, a pariah state, make no mistake that Syria, Lebanon, perhaps even Egypt and Jordan, and the ever-present Hamas led Palestinians will not hesitate to pounce on Israel like on a wounded prey. With the support of Iran, and without US supply of armaments to Israel, they might just succeed in their intentions. False optimism Moshe.
.. or the germans would have won the WW II.
Two points: 1) Are you saying that if Ahmadinajad did not threaten to wipe Israel off the map, then Israel will not attack their nuclear installations? what happened in Osirak? in Northern Syria? 2) The only country in the middle east wiping another off the map is in fact Israel. The Palestinians are slowly being wiped out by Israel. The world should there therefore attack Israel, using your twisted logic. Here is the cold hard truth: the only way Iran will be able to stand up to Israel and the US is through nuclear power. They are furiously working on it and everyone knows that. If Israel had an easy way to destroy the program they would have already done it. I believe Iran will ultimately go nuclear and Israel's hegemony over the region will come to an end.
The Similarities between the current cold war and the actual COld War are astounding, thank you for characterizing it this way. 1) Both cold Wars had one country with a well diversified modern economy, and one with a centralized unstable economy 2) One country with boring, noncharismatic leader, the other with leaders with unlimited bragaddocio, boasts, arms displays and parades. 3) Proxy wars where each side was defeated by the proxy ( US in vietnam, soviets in afghanistan, Israel by hezbollah, Iran by western technology eg twitter) 4) Accountablity in one country, none in the other. 5) Well educated population in one, not as well educated in the other, but enough to realize that they're being swindled by their leaders.
It is refreshing to read an Israeli stating that the US needs Arab OIL more than it needs Israel, even if it is put in an indirect way. Israel should always have this in mind, whatever it does, if it wants the US to stay their ally. Lately Israel has forgotten this and might turn in American eyes now from a protector of Arab OIL flow when things might go wrong to a threat of Arab OIL flow enhancing the possibility things might go wrong. Considering how boastfull threats, bluff and shifting alliances can start a life of their own which does not care whether the threats were really meant or not, overhere we don't have 1967 as key experience for that but we still do have 1914. Mr. Benn senses the danger of this very correctly.
If assassinations were met with assassinations maybe the new appointees will stop the useless "deterrants." Major political figures shouldn't be immune. Salaam/Shalom
Just like like the Soviet-American Cold War, the victor in this new Iranian-Israeli cold war will be the country with the stronger and more stable political system. Remember that the Soviets were never defeated by the americans- they defeated themselves by dismantling their own corrupt political institutions. The Iranian people will soon do the same, as they come to the realization that their leaders are corrupt and not are accountable. Iranians resent that. Now contrast that with israel, where the people realize that their leaders are fully acountable for their actions, and are less corrupt than any arab country or iran ( see global corruption indices) Examples- Katzav, Olmert, the general who led the Lebanon war ( forget his name) , and the list could go on all day of the politicians or leaders who have been crushed by the Israeli legal system and the media. Israel will prevail in the cold war, just as the US prevailed and Soviets were thrown into dustheap.
israel is NOT looking for influence in the region, they just want peace and to be left alone. it's the iranians who want "influence"..lets be honest...iran wants israel gone, and israel does not CARE if iran exists, so long as it leaves them alone. What is so difficult to understand? The Iranian mullahs and the IRGC grip on the country are known to all countries and not one other serious nation thinks this is a good thing. This article is written to 'seem' well intended, but in truth, smacks of moral relativism.
Chris, let me ask you this. How long has Iran been threatening Israel with destruction? and how long has Iran been working on a means of accomplishing just that? The IAEA has recently made a turn-around and even disagree with US intelligence agency estimates that Iran had stopped working on developing nukes in 2004.
Nicely balanced piece which outlines the sparring that?s now going on as in you do this and I?ll do that and if you do that I?ll do this all with the yanks and their interests looming in the background. So what's the best guess outcome? The conclusion does not sufficiently address. Some well supported insight would be most welcome.
Interesting take on recent events. What would you call mass ariel exercises and an attack on Iran being a central plank of Netanyahu's election campaign?
Israel has no desire to harm the Iranian people but they will not hesitate to destroy specific targets that represent an existential threat to the State of Israel. Had the Iranians not expressed their desire to wipe Israel off the map, on numerous occasions, Israel would not feel that a military strike is needed.