Who will blink first in Iran's nuclear poker game?

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Amahdinejad spoke of war by early spring or summer. I hope Israel will be able to stop the Iranians.

"Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations ? entangling alliances with none." Thomas Jefferson I like Dr. Paul, because he shares this view on foreign policy. The US is bankrupt, and we have our own problems to deal with. I'm afraid the Middle East issue is NEVER going to be resolved until the whole region is turned to glass by nuclear war. I'm not saying I want that to happen, but people are too fervent in their own beliefs to ever see the other side and reach agreement. I'm not a religious person, but I pray for you all that you will someday see that we all bleed the same. Peace!

Miss Kohn I woud like to recomend you to listen to George Noory program from Feb.10 th with Robert Young Pelton, to get more liberal informations on Iran, then main stream massmedia are given to us.

I'm sick of hearing people constantly and purposefully misquote Ahmadinejad. He never said he would "wipe Israel off the map". According to numerous different translations, Ahmadinejad never even used the word "map," instead his statement was in the context of time and applied to the Zionist regime occupying Jerusalem. Ahmadinejad was expressing his future hope that the Zionist regime in Israel would fall, not that Iran was going to physically annex the country and its population. I feel sorry for Israel and the US because unfortunately someone, whether it be Zionists or someone far worse, is going to bring the world into a very dark place and the US and Israel follow blindly, thinking they're doing the right thing.

... who reads her Bible and understands Israel's role in it. She will be the first among you to travel to Israel and confirm her beliefs while you pine away as an armchair airhead in ignorance and malice regarding the middle east situation. Get to know some of the many Iranians in your area of CA and ponder why they're there and not in their beautiful country of Iran. Sorry to disappoint you when Iranian trained Hamas fighters looked like fools and didn't capture one Israeli soldier in Cast Lead while the IDF kicked whatever ass of theirs were sticking out out their cramped bunkers. Your hatred of Israel is as old as Satan's and your demise as such.

Israel's imminent war with Iran will start in Lebanon. Israel will not attack Iran before trying hard to create a reason to fight with Hizbollah first to neutralise it.Israel will let one of his spies fire a katyusha to North israel and pretend that it killed five civilians and has to retaliate blaming Hizbollah for starting the war. Iran knows that israel will try its hand on Lebanon as it is the weakest link. Iran will bee on the lookout for those planes that are suppose to hit its installations. If Israel succeed in its first hit, Iran have tens of pilots ready to fly low towards Dimona in a Kamikazi style attack. If one hits its target, that would be enough to get israel's attention. Syria will mobilise and accept to receive thousand of Revolutionary guards by air, sea and land, through Iraq and Turkey and will head immediately to south Lebanon. ( that is why Syria and Iran canceled their visa requirement between their countries.) Iraq Shia population will be restless.

Colin, could you explain to me your, and others of your ilk, unbridled and illogical hatred of Jews? I have been to Israel twice, and I find the people and the country extrodinary. What in your background has caused this animosity? Were you neglected as a child? Has your education been interupted? Did you even receive an education?

I don't think Israel intends to attack Iran. At least not without the help of the US. Israel cannot win without the US. I do however believe Israel will attack lebanon before the end of this year as they desperately want the Latini river. They made Nasrallah a hero last time. This time they may make him Prime minister. This time Hezbollah is likely to invade Israel and occupy a village. Israel will end up killing their own people to oust them. Even with their overwelmning weapontry they could not defeat little Hezbollah and settled for an embarassing cease fire. But Netanyahu is hell bent on revenge for that embarassment.

You asked why the high tech and the elites would leave Israel. I gave you the theory. You don't have to accept it, but comparisons of India which is a huge country of 1 billion people and Israel a sliver of land with a population of 6 million is slightly misleading. Anyway no doubt we will find out.

If israel were to attack Iran with a surprise attack, Iran will retaliate in waves and for many years.Netanyahu has to remember that Iran faught an 8 year war with Iraq, so they are tested on the battlefield, and the lost 2 million of their citizen but they did not mind. Can israel withstand more than one month of war? The war will spread like wild fire. israel will start it and only Iran will end it. It will involve the following countries: Iran,Israel,Syria, Lebanon and Gaza. Supported by Iraq and Turkey as they will facilitate the movement of Guards from Iran to Syria and Lebanon. The Golan will heat-up considerably. Israel will use every arms in its arsenal except the nukes, however it will threaten to use it. The cost of a one year war will be considerable affecting more israeli economy than Iran's.Many israelis with dual nationalities will go back to where they came from. Oil will go to $200 or more as Hormuz will be dangerous to cross as it will be rigged with floating IED'

we don't want to help you anymore, not with the way you have been conducting yourself. the last few paragraphs of this is so arrogant. especially "as far as he's concerned Tel Aviv can burn because Israel acted against his advice? It's hard to imagine that Obama will abandon Israel to its fate." this is not a game!!!!! we don't want to help you with ideas like this. i wish we didn't send you all this money we pay in taxes.

for your info. it was india that invented chess. study a little before opening your uneducated mouth.

It's interesting to note that you never had any problems with Turks when you saw them as allies to Israel. Reminds me of the flip-flops American communists did when Moscow changed he party line.

rofl, I take it nobody is investing in India THEN since Pakistan has the bomb ?! or Soviet Union should have caused the "elites" in US to run for Australia. Mao was ready to sacrifice half of Chinese population to destroy US. I didn't see anybody in US BLINK over that!

existed before the 'Mullahs came to power', with the US and Israel fully supporting those who did them. The only new thing on that list was the Basiji, who, for the most part, don't have guns (compare that with say the Israeli 'Border Patrol') Now, as to what the Iranians have invented since, you might be curious to see what happens when you compare Iranian scientific output against Israeli scientific output, and keep in mind that there aren't multinationals keeping their R&D labs in the country to take advantage of tax breaks subsidised by a foreign government. http://www.science-metrix.com/30years/index.html# and click on Iran and Israel.

Economic disaster,corruption,public executions,persecution of minorities,rape of women prisoners before execution and the Basij. What have I forgotten?

when war breaks out , tens of thousands of missiles and projectiles will fall over israel proper .missiles will even reach negef and dimona . huge inferno will engulf israel . civil-defense crews can,t handle the situation ,they will be hit too .israel,s infrastructure will be badly affected .life for israelis won,t be normal in any way . the IRAN-SYRIA-HIZBOLLAH axis can sustain huge looses and destruction ......but can israel endure the inferno ?

The equation is really very simple in netanyahu's eyes. Israel needs international investment to survive. If Iran has the bomb and declares every Friday that they are prepared to use it, there is not an investor on planet earth who will contemplate investing in Israel if they can do so elsewhere. No investment no high tech jobs. No high tech jobs people leave to where those jobs exist. No high paid jobs no tax revenue, no tax revenue a fall in service ergo a downward spiral. Netanahu is probably already seeing this happening in the figures to do with Northern Israel. That is the gamble he is making whilst trying to get us all to attack Iran. I mean a nuclear Iran. Would you up sticks and move to israel knowing Iran is a nuclear state with a delivery system to hit Israel, at any time day or night?

with the publication of the NIE which stated that Iran stopped pursuing a bomb in 2003. The sanctions in place are nothing more than lip service to stop Netanyahu starting a war that Israel couldn't possibly win and which for 6 years despite beating the drums Israel has never seriously contemplated. Netanyahu's gamble is that the world would believe for a secong time the same type of intelligence that was used to sell a war on Iraq. Not going to happen we do not currently have the capability to invade Iran and occupy it. And Israel certainly doesn't. And that is the only way you are going to stop Iran achieving parity with Israel if it chooses to do so. Hence the International Community helping to reconfigure the IDF so they have a second strike option.

This is obviosly an especualtion, but it seems that Israel and America will be inviolved in a war against Iran Hizbalah and Hammas, with Syrian indirect participation through Hizabalah. It will be painfull for israel which will recieve missiles over T Aviv, but Iran Lebanon and Syria will be punched in such a way that they will hardly attemt anything agaisnt israel for severeal years more. The most likely result of that war will be the destruction of South Lebanon, a revolt against Hizabalah and the destruction of Hammas. The palestinian question will be postponed for years to come.

You're not writing for Guardian or IHT or some such. This is Israeli newspaper, we are Israelis and you're Israeli yourself. If the Iranian threat is real, the bomb will fall on us all. If this is just Bibi's cynical game to avoid settlement with Palestinians, we must be told. You cannot straddle the fence anymore - it is either - or. Say what you think and let us form our own opinion, but don't try to pretend the issue is academical for you and your readers.

Aluf Benn is unrealistically optimistic about the outcome of the coming Israeli attack on Iran, because a lot has changed since the 1970s. Iran has enough defensive weapons (without the S300 from Russia) to make the Israeli attack very costly and Iran's retaliation will be devastating to Israel. Iran is vastly more powerful than Egypt of the 1970s, although most Israelis appear to drastically under-estimate Iran and over-estimate Israeli capabilities. Iran has many battle-hardened military leaders and has learned well from the Iraqi defeat of the US military. Bibi has painted himself into a lonely corner and when he attacks, he will devastate his protector's economy. I wonder how long the people of the US will support Israel after Israel ruins their lifestyles?

Obama holds the weakest hand due to his ideology and his personality. He sorely lacks a clear vision and qualities of leadership. Obama is more obsessed with reducing US nuclear stockpiles than with preventing the fanatic terror regime in Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

thank you. now, at least there is no doubt as to where you stand.

Obama has been president for over a year. Nothing has been achieved regarding Iran sanctions. How much longer will Obama play the sanctions game?

I think that Iran is bluffing, but Israel isn't. Iran talks in terms of 'wiping Israel off the map' - these sound like braggart's words - but Israel talks about 'wiping out nuclear facilities' only: these words are much more realistic, especially since Israel has done this same type of thing before. Although I believe that the Iranian regime has the right to exist and that the harrassment it suffers at the hands of the west is not really justified - the west at this point in time just needs a 'boogeyman' to throw things at - I also believe that if Iran talks about wiping Israel off of the map, they are pretty much asking for trouble from Israel. If Iran talks like this than Israel has every right in the world to wipe out whatever facilities iran might need or use someday in order to carry out this threat. Israel doesn't need to be wiped off the map, Iran. You should stop talking like this to them and about them. Lisa

If Israel wanted to strike Iranian nuclear sites it could have done it long time ago like it was done to iraq's Ozark,without makeing any exercises.Iran is not Iraq or Syria and Iran is not a small country and it has allies and it is more powerful it is also strategically situated where an attack and possible consequent response from Iran could effect her neighbors and the whole middle East and Bibi also has to get his green light from Hossein anway.

While Isarel is playing a Poker Game Iran, Russia and China are playing chess. Don't forget Iran is the nation and the people who invented chess wp they know how to see moves in advance.

Oh but it is a game a game of real life, a game of real life Stratego and this is the World Championship.

if israel is destroyed, it will not be by any arab/islamic army...... israel will destroy itself. israeli arrogance and the deep rooted belief that israelis as gods chosen people, who can do no wrong,. has the world tired and pissed off. israel in its present form has to be dismantled, for the sake of world peace. its up to israelis to wake up a change course. you cant demand and force peace, you have to seek it. and not by killing and stealing.

and of course the whole Middle Eastern region. He stated that Israel would be "crazy" to launch a war - but any country not complying with the monitoring of international nuclear technology is even crazier to invite strict UN sanctions unto its people. This is what he's doing to his own people. The Israelis and Palestinians will overcome the stagnation of the peace process and resolve the territorial dispute, (thanks for the intervention but it hasn't been helpful) but to threaten to annihilate a nation and other neighbouring nations in order to gain dominion over Western Asia, is unthinkable in this day and age. The world has developed more independent nations the last century, not colonial empires! Better to change your agenda and speeches Mr. Ahmadinejad.

"you think its a game?" - Benny No, I don't. I think it is the ravings of men who have never paid attention to the reality of the world since the Soviet Union detonated it's first nuclear weapon. It is the ravings of lunatics and feeble minded people who are easily given to panic by the suggestions of people without the ability to comprehend what they are preaching. Israel could launch a major nuclear strike against Iran. Or it can get real. There is NO strike less than a nuclear one which can take out ALL KNOWN Iranian nuclear sites in a single blow. Yet the whole premise of the Israeli position is that Iran has an entire hidden nuclear program which is so secret that Israel can't tell the IAEA where to look for it. . . If you don't know where it is, you can't hit it. Got it? So Israel's never confirmed nuclear weapons are useless in this situation. Yet they do ensure Iran will not nuke Israel. Got it?

The ONLY time nukes have ever been used was long ago in 1945 when the USA, a nation which had already won, used them upon a nation which not only had already lost, but had none to retaliate with. Since then NO ONE has used nukes. Why? Because EVERYONE understands that anyone who used them would have to be nuts and then EVERYONE who had them would have to end the ability of that nuclear power' to nuke them. Nukes are the most powerful - and useless - of weapons. All they can do is ensure that the possessing nation is not the ONLY loser in a war. They are not useful as a weapon of aggression, for all other nuclear nations will realize that the aggressor must be expunged as insane. They are not useful as a tactical weapon because everyone who has them would recognize the tactical need to ensure the user never do it again. Nukes are useful, but they even limit the ability of a nation to engage in conventional war. American couldn't invade North Vietnam could it?

"If Khameini and the Simian were to go when the several nuke sites were hit, their replacements might have cause to pause before restarting the belligerence." - Greg And if Israel nuked Iran to achieve your goals? I guarantee you that not only would Iran develop nukes, but Israel would become a world pariah.

There is no nation which chose to acquire nuclear weapons which did not. This is a simple fact of finance and physics. Several nations which had pursued them have eschewed them. One which achieved them gave them up. Another which had them delivered as a gift, chose to get rid of them. But NO nation which was willing to spend the necessary money and risk the subsequent consequences has EVER failed to achieve that objective. The best that ANY nation aside from Iran can hope to achieve is to delay the Iranian bomb by at best three years. If there is to be no Iranian bomb then ONLY by convincing Iran to submit to the Additional Protocols to the NPT can achieve that goal.

Thats why they hide in Burkas and blow up children and old people. They will start it but thats as far as it will go, just look at what happened in Iraq, every one deserted. Russians know this better then anyone

Iran has said it still wants to buy fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Which is to say it has no chance of producing sufficient fuel in time to refuel the reactor. Iran has a real problem Their whole program for self-sufficiency is impossible, yet the horrific experience of the Iran-Iraq war is too close and too real to diminish their national commitment to becoming self-reliant. Israel is a nation which should understand this. Israel saw the jet fighter as essential for many decades and it was only after the Lavi Fiasco that Israel gave up the pursuit of an indigenous first class fighter. The fact was Israel simply could not afford or manage the effort. Other technological problems have been less demanding, building Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles and nuclear weapons, for example. Yet Iran can build a modern destroyer and Israel cannot. Then neither can build a modern conventional submarine much less than a nuclear submarine.

..the problem is that an attack on iran will end up in a war of wmds. that will make the regional war an international an world war. persia has got more than 17 million fighters. who ever will attack has a significant percentage of failure. look guys as russia attacked afghanistan its warsaw pact ended up in perestroica becaus of the immense costs the war brought. this can happen to the usa or the nato two! imagine what will come if we had to tell the world that a war against iran(or even in afghanistan)could not be won??? NATO and USA would loose their face and influence as world strongest millitary organisation!acceptance would fall! that is what iran and a bunch of other nations are up to! let me say this reall clear neither NATO nor USA or ISRAEL will ever attack iran!the world wont let em!the risk is way to high!IRAN is aware of this.nothing will change except an armsrally in the middle east. a new COLD WAR!i bet living in israel will become much harder in the future!

Israel managed to convince itself that it has convinced others that it is actually going to attack Iran. The real world however, knows that Iran has shown it can enrich to 20% anytime it wants. It will soon show that it can fashion fuel rods for the medical reactor. Supposedly a difficult task, but if they can put a satellite in space, I bet they can manage it. In the meantime, they can buy all the medical isotopes they need off the open market. The poker game is already over. You just haven't realized it yet.

re the above subject: Iran knows that the western countries will not attack . Why? Any idiot knows that the magic word is OIL. The only country that has to worry, is Israel. The UN., knows full well, that when the crucial time comes, ( because sanctions against Iran do not, and will not work)it can wash it's hands and plead ignorance. Hey, Muslim and Arabs and everyone else, it wasn,t us, it was Israel who attacked you. And once again, the choice had to be made by Israel without anyone's support or backing. yes sir, israel becomes the bad guy. And those who pride themselves as being doves, writing in the comfort of whatever, might find themselves without a country to critize day in and day out. Then what?????

you nut

How an Iranian bomb can cause "the elites and high tech" to leave is beyond me?! how did the writer come to that conclusion? Iran has been shouting Death to Israel for more than three decades. Some ppl are behaving as if the islamic revolution happened yesterday.

If Khameini and the Simian were to go when the several nuke sites were hit, their replacements might have cause to pause before restarting the belligerence.

NO ONE outside Israel is getting very worried about the possibility of Israel attacking Iran. Your huff 'n puff routine got stale about five years back. Of course, you're always welcome to do something this stupid. It'd be hard on some unknown number of Iranians, but otherwise -- those of us who wish you ill are all for you having a go. Do it. Please. However, I'm not holding my breath.