War of the weak

Top-ranking Palestinians describe the current crisis in various ways. Hussein al Sheikh, considered one of Mohammed Dahlan's people in the West Bank, said last Saturday on Al Jazeera TV that the violence in Jenin and Nablus, where Palestinian Authority offices were torched and three foreigners briefly kidnapped, shows that the crisis in the PA and Fatah leadership is serious and far from over.

Yasser Arafat, on the other hand, is trying to play down the severity of the crisis. One of the PA chairman's visitors this week heard him say over the weekend that "Ariel Sharon is pouring out millions to create havoc in Gaza." Arafat thinks the crisis is artificial and not at all terrible, and that the Israeli government is trying to fan the flames.

What's the truth? The split between the two camps in Gaza appears impossible to bridge. Dahlan, who meanwhile is overseas, has rallied around him loyalists with power bases in the Preventive Security force (Rashid Abu Shbak) and the Fatah movement (Samir Mashrawi). He also has a known strong-arm on the ground, Nabi Tamus, who gets involved in violence. But no less important, as far as Dahlan is concerned, is the political backing he's getting from other Fatah leaders, especially Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen).

Since resigning a year ago as prime minister of his short-lived government, Abbas has cut off all ties with Arafat. He does not go to leadership sessions at the Muqata and only stays in touch with loyalists, led by Dahlan. The third person in this group is former minister Nabil Amr, who was shot in Ramallah two weeks ago in an assassination attempt.

Seriously wounded, Amr was flown to Germany for treatment where doctors were forced to remove his right leg. Arafat called him to wish him well, and in the streets of Ramallah the Arabic saying was heard, "after he murders someone, he goes to the funeral."

Despite the violence, the rivalries and struggles between the Dahlan-Abbas camp and the Arafat loyalists are mostly taking place beneath the surface. Both sides are inciting, slandering, spreading rumors and leveling charges - but nearly none of it is taking place in public. Arafat's people, who are conducting an investigation into the attempted assassination of Amr, for example, are saying that Israeli commandos should be blamed. Dahlan's people, on the other hand, say there is no serious proof, and Dahlan announced he personally would deal with the assassins.

The talk of the town in Ramallah is the story of the resident of Qalandiyah, north of Jerusalem, who was arrested by the Palestinian police and confessed to planning to assassinate Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia, Jibril Rajoub and Hani al Hassan.

The three are considered the closest to Arafat and it is easy to guess who is suspected of recruiting the assassin.

It is important to say that so far both sides are practicing restraint and are not making public accusations, so the crisis is not a rebellion. There is even a possibility it will be solved without one side's complete defeat. Arafat is meanwhile trying to respond to the demands for reform by replacing Interior Minister Hakem Balawi, ostensibly in charge of domestic security.

The candidate tipped to take his place is PA secretary general Tayeb Abdul Rahim and as far as the Dahlan-Abbas people are concerned, that's a joke since both the outgoing and incoming interior ministers are the chairman's yes-men.

Meanwhile both sides look weak. Arafat is too weak to put down his rivals; Dahlan and Abbas are too weak to depose the chairman. Therefore, the old saw can be used to describe this crisis: "It's grave, but not serious."