Too safe

Perhaps the most surprising thing about a visit to Bethlehem last Friday, Christmas Eve, was the security arrangements of PLO leader Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who spent that day in the city. Standing at the entrance to the relatively new Bethlehem Hotel, at which a gathering of Fatah and Tanzim activists in the city was held in the late afternoon, was a lone policeman who absent-mindedly asked a few of those entering the building: Are you here for the meeting? A nod of the head was all it took to enter the third-story ballroom in which hundreds of Fatah activists met the leader of their movement.

In other words, Abu Mazen had no security. Nobody asked the individuals entering the hall who they were or why they were there. There were no gates with metal detectors, no inspection of handbags, no sterile areas - nothing. Abu Mazen, not considered an especially popular figure, and who in his tenure as prime minister complained that threats were being made against him, feels safe enough to go here and there without any security arrangements.

It was his first visit to the city since he was selected as Fatah's candidate for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority, and those gathered in the hall related to the meetings as a traditional expression of confidence in a new Muslim ruler. Abu Mazen repeated his regular speech, in which he mentioned three principles on which the Palestinian movement is founded: an independent state with its capital in Jerusalem; return to the 1967 borders; and a just solution to the refugee problem (he avoided use of the term "right of return"). The audience showed no signs of enthusiasm.

Here and there, they applauded more out of politeness than anything else, and there were intermittent outbursts from one corner of the hall, along the lines of "Forward, Fatah Youth!" One woman, in rural garb, let loose a traditional ululation of joy, and one of the young people asked Abu Mazen why the Fatah movement was not paying an adequate stipend to the family of a shaheed who had been the commander of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades in the city, and had died for the homeland.

On the face of it, Abu Mazen didn't have to make much of an effort. His election is assured. His main opponent in the election, Dr. Mustafa Barghouti, trails far behind him in the polls. So are the other candidates, including Bassam Al-Salhi, the representative of the People's party (ranked third in the polls).

Thus, the most serious threat to Abu Mazen is not the other candidates, but the possibility that the public will simply choose not to go to the polls. Why go to the trouble of standing in line when the outcome is clear? In the previous election, held in 1996, it was also plain as day that Yasser Arafat would be elected, but in that election voters were also casting their votes for regional candidates for the legislative council (the parliament), and there a stormy campaign was waged. It is altogether possible that since that time, when those with the right to vote went to the balloting booths to support their parliamentary representatives, didn't mind taking the extra 30 seconds to put in a paper ballot for Arafat. Now Abu Mazen and his aides are afraid that the voters won't even come, and for them, this would be bad news. An especially low voter turnout could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the new leader, and could harm the legitimacy of his leadership.

At the Tanzim gathering in Bethlehem on Friday, as in the election campaign of Abu Mazen in general, there was talk first of all about the need to bring the voters to the voting booths. To that end, an organization called OneVoice was enlisted. This group receives funds from an American donor to "bring together Palestinian and Israeli citizens in raising the voice of moderates and supporters of peace on both sides" (from their publicity material). The organization has a Palestinian branch and an Israeli branch. Last Thursday in Ramallah, the Palestinian branch organized a procession of cars bearing colorful balloons and a musical performance. The festivities were held under the slogan "Come take part in elections." All of the requests and coordination efforts made by Palestinian bodies to the Israeli administration are aimed toward the same goal: bringing the voters out to vote.