• Published 02:16 16.06.11
  • Latest update 02:16 16.06.11

The threat of attack on Iran is needed to deter it

To ensure that Israel is not forced to bomb Iran, it must maintain the impression that it is about to bomb Iran.

By Ari Shavit

First fact: Neither the West nor Israel can accept a nuclear Iran. A nuclear Iran would make the Middle East nuclear, threaten Western sources of energy, paralyze Israel with fear, cause Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to go nuclear and the world order to collapse. A nuclear Iran would make our lives hell.

Second fact: Neither the West nor Israel has to act militarily at present against Iranian nuclearization. A military attack against Iran would incite a disastrous regional war, which would cost the lives of thousands of Israelis. A military attack against Iran would turn it into a great vengeful power that would sanctify eternal war against the Jewish State. A military attack against Iran would cause a world financial crisis and isolate Israel from the family of nations.

Third fact: Out of a profound understanding of these two basic facts, the West and Israel have developed a joint strategy that can best be described as the third way. The third way has two dimensions: (covert ) activities and economic sanctions. Surprising even to those who have formulated this strategy, the third way is achieving results. It is not eliminating the Iranian threat, but it is postponing and weakening it. Britain, France and Israel, working in close alliance, are spearheading the effort. The United States is also doing its part. Germany and Italy are trailing behind. But the bottom line is that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is under pressure. The still waters of the West and Israel run deep.

Fourth fact: A key element of the third way is the threat of a military attack against Iran. This threat is crucial for scaring the Iranians and for goading on the Americans and the Europeans. It is also crucial for spurring on the Chinese and the Russians. Israel must not behave like an insane country. Rather, it must create the fear that if it is pushed into a corner it will behave insanely. To ensure that Israel is not forced to bomb Iran, it must maintain the impression that it is about to bomb Iran.

Fifth fact: In order to conduct a sophisticated strategy vis-a-vis Iran, there must be total trust between the political and security leadership in Israel. That trust does not exist. Therefore, when the leaders of this country initiate certain moves, they create panic among their subordinates. Sometimes it seems to the subordinates that the leaders have gone crazy. What is meant to frighten the Iranians, Americans and Europeans frightens Israelis as well. Instead of the Israeli establishment conducting the policy of ambiguity in a disciplined manner, it becomes giddy. Everyone suspects everyone else, and the necessary cloud of ambiguity evaporates.

Sixth fact: Neither former Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi, nor former Mossad chief Meir Dagan, nor former Shin Bet head Yuval Diskin led the drive to restrain Israeli foolhardiness over the past two years. It was led by Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe (Bogie ) Ya'alon. Ya'alon is calm now. If Ya'alon is calm, Israeli citizens can be calm. There is no immediate danger at the moment that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will behave like Samson in Iran. The fact is that the prime minister - as of now - is behaving seriously and wisely toward the Iranians. If only he would behave the same way toward the Palestinians and the Israelis. Seventh fact: The success is partial, relative and temporary. True, Iran did not arrive in 2011 at the place where it had planned to be, but in 2011 Iran is in a place where it wasn't supposed to be. Therefore the dilemma is still with us. Therefore the discussion of the dilemma must be conducted clear minds and good judgment. Whichever way it goes, the final decision about Iranian nuclearization will be the most important decision of our generation. Eight fact: What is really disturbing about Iran is not what is hidden from the eye, but what is exposed. It is not clear why the West has so far failed to impose draconian sanctions on Iran that would lead to the fall of the regime. It is not clear why Israel is not preparing all its systems for a moment of truth that even if delayed, will certainly arrive. The real fault of the American, European and Israeli leadership is not related do what it is doing in secret. The real fault is related to what it is failing to do in the open political and diplomatic spaces.

  • Print Page
  • Send to a friend
  • Share
  • Text Size +|-
 
 
TalkBacks

Why Facebook Connect?

Comment on Haaretz.com articles with your Facebook login, and share your thoughts on your own wall.

Add a comment

Add your reply

  • 25. 17 2
    Iran is going to go ahead with its ambitions
    • Guy
    • 16.06.11
    • 19:42

    A threat of an attack is not going to stop Iran, especially not in the light of what is happening in Libya and the uprising Iran has already experienced. An Iranian regime with nuclear weapons will ensure its survival and make it into a fortress like North Korea.

  • 24. 0 9
    ari shavit - Iran and nuclear arms
    • Mimi Jacques
    • 16.06.11
    • 19:05

    Today's June 16,2011 Globaltimes.cn article 'SOC hails anti-terror' is worth reading. SOC= Shanghai Cooperation Org.,Iran's PM Ahmadinejad was a non-member,non-status bystander- SOC members are China,Russia,Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan,Uzbekistan,Tajikstan-- summit meeting in Astona,Kazakhstan. Subjects- 3 evild: terrorism,extremism,separatism,drug and weapons transportation. In the picture was also Hamid Karzai (Afgh) and others perhaps you recognize. The question I have in lieu of Iran- are the LARIJANIS; eldest son ALi (Ardeshir)is Speaker of Majlis, SADEQ- mullah-Chief Justice (Supreme Guide Ali Khamenei),MUHAMMAD-JAWAD- attended Berkeley,CA,US, math.- 18 posts, BAQER,M.D.- Dean of Faculty of Medicine,Teheran; FAZEL, Diplomat- Canada. Who are Ahmadinejad's forces? The Larijanis have the potential of changing a lot in the affairs of Iran. I'd like to know more about them in order to form an informed decision.

  • 23. 25 1
    exemple of libya
    • inconito
    • 16.06.11
    • 18:56

    Libya, a country of 4.5 million people and no offensive capability or even defense. no strategic position (ex: Persian Gulf) is bombed tirelessly for three months and the outcome is still uncertain, despite a huge war machine set in motion by NATO. do you seriously think that Iran, a country huge, with a powerful response capability, and strategic place, will be afraid of israel? anyone who knows how to count up to four, will tell you quite sure that nooooo

  • 22. 24 6
  • 21. 33 10
    Iran making the ME "go nuclear" is not a bad thing...
    • ManInTheMiddle
    • 16.06.11
    • 18:10

    Since countries like Israel and Pakistan have gone nuclear the only factor to ensure stability in the ME is the good old MAD. Iran is not a bit more dangerous than Israel and Pakistan and that's a fact! Having said that, I believe the ME should be nuclear free, and that should certainly start with Israel's "ambiguous" nukes arsenal that is clear and present danger to everyone including the people of Israel.

  • 20. 15 4
    Facts
    • alanmirs
    • 16.06.11
    • 17:37

    First fact: Having the peaceful nuclear energy hence having the knowledge of building the bomb takes away the importance of possession and helps the destruction of such weapons The rest of the Facts: Practice of prejudice, hatred, deception, and invert the truth, has been propaganda apparatus to validate injustice in the region, holocaust a grave tragedy, and no one denies, but the plot to form Zionist regime is the question For centauries through out the history the natives lived together dominated by majority rule in harmony, and they respected each others heritage, related to one another through intercourse, association, socializing and being part of it, as one family Israel is not a Jewish state, and not because they are or not Jews but because they don’t belong to the environment and since the circumstances is not like the new world, they don’t understand the heritage, culture, and the history of the land The natives in Israel are not the settlers; the natives are Jews, Christians, and Muslims, who were Jews or Christians before becoming Muslims this artificial phenomenon has been created to divide and rule The question is what kind of people chose Israel to emigrate to, when the choice of Europe, new world countries are in hand?

  • 19. 3 1
    Facts
    • alanmirs
    • 16.06.11
    • 17:29

    First fact: Having the peaceful nuclear energy hence having the knowledge of building the bomb takes away the importance of possession and helps the destruction of such weapons The rest of the Facts: Practice of prejudice, hatred, deception, and invert the truth, has been propaganda apparatus to validate injustice in the region, holocaust a grave tragedy, and no one denies, but the plot to form Zionist regime is the question For centauries through out the history the natives lived together dominated by majority rule in harmony, and they respected each others heritage, related to one another through intercourse, association, socializing and being part of it, as one family Israel is not a Jewish state, and not because they are or not Jews but because they don’t belong to the environment and since the circumstances is not like the new world, they don’t understand the heritage, culture, and the history of the land The natives in Israel are not the settlers; the natives are Jews, Christians, and Muslims, who were Jews or Christians before becoming Muslims this artificial phenomenon has been created to divide and rule The question is what kind of people chose Israel to emigrate to, when the choice of Europe, new world countries are in hand?

  • 18. 2 2
    The trouble with democracy
    • Uri
    • 16.06.11
    • 16:58

    It spills out even what should be kept secret.

  • 17. 0 1
    Iranian Revolutionary Guards Council Take
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 16.06.11
    • 16:50

    The IRGC published a satyrical article on it's website (Gerdab) on 24 April this year. Perhaps most amusing is the headlines of various news sources. A rough translation is available at http://talkingwarheads.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/the-day-after-the-first-iranian-nuclear-test.pdf The IRGC post is at ://www.gerdab.ir/fa/news/5218/فردای-نخستین-آزمایش-هسته%E2%80%8Cای-ایران،-یک-روز-معمولی

  • 16. 32 5
    Rubbish argument
    • Wise one
    • 16.06.11
    • 16:44

    If this logic applies, then the threat of wiping Israel of the face of the earth is needed to deter it form its foriegn occupying policies

  • 15. 34 4
    Iran is deterred?
    • harzion
    • 16.06.11
    • 16:26

    Is this the same Iran that just put a satellite in orbit and who refuses to stop their nuclear program no matter what? Here is an important clue for Shavit. Iraq, supported by America, made a surprise attack upon Iran. Iraq even used some small svcale WMD's on the Iranians, wiping out entire villages. In spite of having hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Iranians fought back over the course of a decade and pushed into Iraq. When it appeared that Iran would capture the Iraqi oilfields Russia and America and the UN moved quickly to stop the war. Iran is not an enemy that will be "deterred" and certainly not by Israel.

    • 27 4
      Facts
      • Johnny Walker
      • 16.06.11
      • 19:25

      Israel wants naked hegemony in Middle East; wants the ability with USA help to walk or run over any country militarily at its behest or slight provocation. Imagine Blockaiding another country, palestine with American tax dollars. Palestine must not have arms only Israel,only Israel has a right to defend itself; the rest of the world must always acquiesce to Israel demands Iran says no.. Enough of this rubbish. If Israel can have nuclear arms so can Iran or any countries. But the point is : let Israel attack Iran , do you think Iran will sit with its hand folded? Israel is a country with many brilliant minds. Think abouy the consequences of any foolhardy actions. Think about the tens of millions of innocent people who will die. Will there be an Israel after the cloud of war has disappeared.

  • 14. 4 49
    When the Storm comes,
    • John Prophet of Light
    • 16.06.11
    • 15:18

    Israel will push back with such ferocity the Islamic world will tremble because of it. Israel will visit such destruction, that her enemies will tremble in fear for a thousand years. Greater Israel like the Phoenix will emerge from the ashes to light up the world. It is written!

  • 13. 64 5
    Dr Strangelove are you serious?
    • jim the mechanic
    • 16.06.11
    • 14:33

    Fact one. Israel has nukes. Fact two. The US has nukes. Fact three Russia has nukes. Fact 4 Pakistan has nukes. Fact 5 India has nukes. Fact 6 China has nukes. Fact 7 France has nukes Fact 8 Britian has nukes. Fact 9 Threats from these nations lead the nations being threatened, is to get nukes too........Fear is the biggest reason for the nuclear arms race in the first place. So tell me again why fear will lessen the want/ need of more nukes?

  • 12. 31 3
    Facts
    • jonnm
    • 16.06.11
    • 14:27

    The writer does what many advocates do and that is he elevates his opinions to facts. Replace the word fact with the word opinion in the article and you get a better analysis.

  • 11. 22 10
    a question for shavit
    • joe
    • 16.06.11
    • 13:28

    you claim that this is a fact- 'A military attack against Iran would incite a disastrous regional war, which would cost the lives of thousands of Israelis. A military attack against Iran would turn it into a great vengeful power that would sanctify eternal war against the Jewish State. A military attack against Iran would cause a world financial crisis and isolate Israel from the family of nations' is there any information that can back up these claims. here are the facts from which it is clear that your facts are incorrect. 1. iran is far far away from israel and has limited arsenal of ballistic missiles. many of them can be dealt with by the arrow defense system. iranian only reliable ally in the region is hizballah, but it is not clear that the hizballah will join the iranian war- lebanon will suffer too much. so, 'a disastrous regional war, which would cost the lives of thousands of Israelis' is not all quaranteed. 2. 'great vengeful power that would sanctify eternal war against the Jewish State' sounds scary but in practice would require iranians to mess up with the whole world- will they do that is not that clear. 3. 'A military attack against Iran would cause a world financial crisis and isolate Israel from the family of nations'. they can only do that by blocking oil production/delivery from other gulf states- this would be illegal and again put them against the whole world. in any event, this would be a very short crisis before things are resolved via diplomacy or military threats.

    • 18 1
      joe
      • xyz
      • 16.06.11
      • 14:52

      Ashkenazi said that Iran has 300 Shahab missiles, this is a handful for you?

    • 16 1
      Joe the only reason you opine...
      • ManInTheMiddle
      • 16.06.11
      • 18:16

      "this should be a short crisis..." is that you are arguing based on ignorance not accurate knowledge of what is going on in the ME today. The world economy is extremely fragile and a sharp increase in energy prices spearheaded by the oil traders in NY and London will create havoc in our lives, and you are declaring that as "illegal"! That goes to show you don't think too much.

  • 10. 12 7
    the answer is in the article
    • expat, jerusalem
    • 16.06.11
    • 12:42

    as everyone involved knows the "second fact", i.e. any military action would be disastrous for the region and the world, there isn't any ambiguity and no place for the "fourth fact", i.e. "mum's the word". So there is no military option. Everybody knows it, so what is there to be ambiguous about?

  • 9. 26 7
    yes for a nuclear iran
    • xyz
    • 16.06.11
    • 12:26

    first is, "we can not accept a nuclear Iran?", which gives you the right to speakin the name of the entire planet? survey shows that European and American leaders will rather accept a nuclear Iran than to try an unnecessary war and ruinous

  • 8. 48 14
  • 7. 57 9
    "A nuclear Iran would make the Middle East nuclear"
    • Robert
    • 16.06.11
    • 11:09

    haha good one, we know all who started the arms race, israel in 1960s. Dimona.

  • 6. 32 7
  • 5. 39 1
  • 4. 48 7
    "A nuclear Iran would make the Middle East nuclear"
    • Dave
    • 16.06.11
    • 10:30

    Bit late to start worrying about that, isn't it? If you want a nuclear-free ME, you know where to start...

  • 3. 5 12
    Great analysis, but poorly worded headline. Headline writer: How about: "Maintain threat against Iran to avoid having to attack"
    • Commentator
    • 16.06.11
    • 10:01

    BTW, Shavit's jab at BB in the last paragraph is ironic, because Shavit doesn't realize that BB is successfully handling the Palestinians and the Israeli Left. He's not trying to please either of these two segments, but rather to make sure that they do not make political gains. If you realize BB's goal as you do with the case of Iran, you realize that he's making the right counter-moves. Note how Abbas is trying to climb down from the September statehood tree, while the Left has been reduced to criticizing the cost of cottage cheese. And unlike 1999, when the Israeli public was still naive enough to buy the "Israeli is stuck" marketing gimmick, the majority won't fall for it next time around - which is why BB got back into office, after all. Oslo and Disengagement both failed, so now the majority is looking for a leader who will negotiate from strength and not weakness, because most Israelis now realize that just like in the shuk, the willingness to wait for the other side to capitulate to one's redlines is the only way to get a fair deal.

  • 2. 36 5
  • 1. 7 9
    The peaceful solution of the Iran problem, using only sanctions
    • Logios
    • 16.06.11
    • 02:53

    According to Mossad, Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb before 2015 (due to the virus attack, and to correction of past Israeli exaggerations). A lot can happen. First, Ahmadinejad will no longer be President. Second, the Chief Ayatollah is reportedly suffering from some serious medical problem, and might not be around. There is plenty of time for another round of sanctions to bite. My suggestion: The Security Council should decide that any supply of nuclear fuel to Iranian power/research plants (by Russians or others) should be paid for by an equivalent amount of Iranian Uranium, first enriched and then even raw. Iran does not have much Uranium, and is looking around even TODAY for a seller, so this exchange plan will bring an end to their enrichment program. Problem solved.