The Russian agenda

Three years after the Russian speakers in Israel appeared to have lost their electoral uniqueness and to have integrated into the voting patterns of the general population, we may be seeing this sector, wielding 20 Knesset seats, impose an agenda of its own in the upcoming elections.

The tremendous power of the Russian speakers could decide not only who is elected prime minister, but how the whole election campaign is run. In view of the dramatic changes in the public arena, it now seems the campaign will revolve around two major agendas - political and socioeconomic.

But a million Russian speakers, over whose vote a fierce battle will be fought, will push for another agenda - civil. Even if most of the issues that affect their vote are similar to those of veteran Israelis, the Russian immigrants still suffer most from Israel's lack of separation between religion and state and absence of a civil agenda. Political parties that put on their thinking caps and come up with serious solutions to these problems will attract more votes from the Russian immigrant community.

While the Russian immigrants take a condescending view of Amir Peretz as chairman of the Labor Party, it is interesting that in surveys presenting his socioeconomic platform, more than 50 percent of respondents voiced support for it. Personal support for Peretz, on the other hand, is almost nil - both because of his Moroccan origins and his low level of formal education. This is a major challenge for the Labor chair, but also a moment of truth for the Russian speaking public. This community will have to decide whether to reject a candidate on the basis of his ethnic origins.

Peretz has another problem. His desire to win the votes of the Mizrahim, who are more religious, clashes with his goal of attracting the Russians, whose needs are different. In order to overcome this obstacle, Peretz will require intermediaries who have clout in the Russian community, which he does not yet have.

Ariel Sharon doesn't need intermediaries. He is still the preferred candidate among the Russian speakers - to the extent that the popularity of other politicians is determined by their attitude toward Sharon. Support for Benjamin Netanyahu, formerly idolized by the Russians, has gone down recently to only 10 percent.

A look at the surveys conducted by Dr. Eliezer Feldman of the Mutagim Institute, an expert in opinion polls in the Russian sector, turns up a surprising finding: Netanyahu's drop in popularity is less connected to his economic program, which has been very bad for the immigrants, than his standoff with Sharon. The two representatives of the Russian community who have joined him - Natan Sharansky and Yuli Edelstein - have been hurt by what is perceived as their attack on Sharon. All three opposed the disengagement plan, which was supported by the majority of Russian speakers.

Nevertheless, Sharon left Netanyahu a political dowry in the Likud Central Committee in the form of 134 committee members from Yisrael B'Aliya, from when the party merged with the Likud. No secular, civil agenda is expected to spring from that, but feelings of discrimination may grow stronger. There is no question that Sharon's attempt to keep Sharansky from running for chairman of the Jewish Agency will be translated in the propaganda as an affront to the entire community.

On the other hand, Sharon took his deputy absorption minister, Marina Solodkin, from Sharansky's party. Solodkin supported him on the disengagement and is moving with him to his new party. Her reputation as the "social worker" of the Russian sector is an asset to Sharon.

The sense of neglect and wounded pride in the Russian community are bound to be exploited by the chairman of the National Union, Avigdor Lieberman, once he decides whether he is more "right wing" or more "Russian." Lieberman has been operating as a "Russian party" over the past few months, although he is now working to establish a rightist bloc with the religious and the settlers. Such a coalition under Lieberman failed in the past, so this media-hyped move is probably tactical, for the most part.

As a "Russian" party, he can look forward to five "Russian" seats plus some votes from the secular right. Lieberman's civil agenda focuses mainly on the poor rapport of the police and the law enforcement authorities with the Russian-speaking community. On the other side of the political divide, MK Roman Bronfman (Meretz-Democratic Choice) has put together a solid civil agenda that has already improved his standing among the Russian speakers despite his leftist affiliation.

Whatever happens, it will be interesting. Sharon's party, Shinui and Bronfman will all be vying for the "civil" slot in the Russian community. Meretz, which has a civil agenda but no Russian voters, will try, too. The others will be forced to come up with answers they don't have, and finding them will benefit the Israeli public as a whole.