• Published 02:49 22.10.09
  • Latest update 10:23 22.10.09

The fifth and last decade

If we do not seriously deal with the settlements, we will become South Africa.

By Ari Shavit Tags: Israel news

The chronicles of stupidity are as follows: In the first decade after the Six-Day War, Israel decided not to decide. It did not heed the warnings of the likes of Yeshayahu Leibowitz, Amos Oz, Uri Avnery and former Labor Party leaders Aryeh Eliav and Yitzhak Ben-Aharon, all of whom immediately understood that the occupation was a trap. Israel believed that the territories were bargaining chips, and that it would be best to hold on to those chips so they could be exchanged for peace. The Israel of Levi Eshkol and Golda Meir did not understand that the temporary situation it created in Judea, Samaria and Gaza was a permanent trap from which it would be very difficult to get out.

In the second decade after the Six-Day War, Israel decided. After the electoral upheaval of 1977, the right-wing governments built around 150 settlements, which were designed to make the occupation irreversible. Even after Likud withdrew from Sinai, the party was determined to prevent an additional evacuation. In an unprecedented display of arrogance, trepidation, and obliviousness to reality, Likudist Israel tried to consolidate its control over the territories, de facto. By employing anachronistic and illegitimate colonialist methods, the Israel of Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon defied international law and the demographic realities on the ground to swallow large swaths of land it was incapable of digesting. Intoxicated by power and tinged by messianic fervor, it tried to stop Palestinian sovereignty at any price, but in so doing undermined Jewish sovereignty.

In the third decade, Israel underwent a period of sobering up. The first intifada compelled a majority of Israelis to understand that it would be best to leave the territories. Yet Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres chose Oslo as the avenue for trying to leave the territories, an avenue that led to a dead end. Why? Because Oslo relied on the baseless assumption that Yasser Arafat was a partner and that peace was attainable. As a result, the peace process was not rigorous enough with the Palestinians, nor did it take a hard enough line against the settlements. The result was total chaos: On the one hand, we had an armed, hostile and irresponsible Palestinian entity, on the other we had a terrifying settlement enterprise. Instead of the diplomatic process freeing Israel from the noose, it only tightened it further around its neck.

The fourth decade of the occupation saw Israel sober up from its sobriety. After the failure of Camp David and the eruption of the second intifada, the Israeli majority understood that the occupation and peace were two separate issues. It understood that Israel had to carefully leave the territories, even though such a withdrawal would not end the conflict.

The Israel of Sharon and Ehud Olmert believed in unilateralism. Yet after unilateralism was tried during the disengagement, it became clear that the latest magical solution was an illusory solution. The ascent of Hamas, the Qassam attacks, Operation Cast Lead and the Goldstone report taught us what happens when Israel seeks to disengage: Palestinian extremism strengthens, violence is renewed, and when Israel tries to defend itself, it is singled out. At this late stage of the necrosis, a simplistic unilateral withdrawal does not revive Israeli legitimacy, it erodes it to the bone.

The fifth decade of occupation is the last decade. There is no chance the international community will grant Israel another respite. If we do not quickly find the right way to deal with the occupation, the occupation will bury us. Justly or unjustly, Israel's back is against the wall. Justly or unjustly, the world is showing Israel zero tolerance and giving the country no quarter. If we are once again compelled to employ force, we will be denounced. If we do not seriously deal with the settlements, we will become South Africa.

So Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak have no time. They must act quickly. The option of the first decade (status quo) is not an option. The option of the second decade (settlements) was never an option. The option of the third decade (peace) is an illusion. The option of the fourth decade (unilateralism) is a recipe for disaster.

Thus it is vital to produce within a short time the (sober) option of the fifth decade. Perhaps a limited withdrawal from Samaria. Perhaps a limited withdrawal in exchange for international recognition of an Israeli line of defense and an Israeli right to defend itself within that line. Perhaps a limited withdrawal on condition that Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states assume temporary responsibility for the evacuated territories and their development. However it is done, Netanyahu and Barak must act. They must prove that they are not sitting in their offices to enjoy the trappings of power, but to end four decades of foolishness by ushering in a fifth decade of hope.

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  • 29. 0 0
    to A Solomon #22 (9th try)
    • zeev
    • 01.11.09
    • 12:07

    "Israel has the historic and legal right to remain in Judea and Samaria." (A Solomon) This is not what the rest of the world believe. And the rest of the world has ways to make its will not only felt but felt decisively and effectively. Remember F.W. de Klerk, the last President of apartheid South Africa. And Slobodan Milosevic and where he ended for having believed that Serbia had the historic and legal right to remain in Kosovo. What is more, Israel has no historic and no legal right (nor the means) to keep forever captive a stateless population of four million Arabs (see 'The CIA World Factbook'). Only dimwits believe otherwise.

  • 28. 0 0
    to Sebastian #15 (7th try)
    • zeev
    • 28.10.09
    • 21:51

    " ... in the likely case that the West Bank is also taken over by the Hamas." (Sebastian) Hamas is the local branch of the Egyptian 'Muslim Brotherhood'. This was unknown, most apparently, by then-PM Sharon (historians are still debating who forgot to tell him), when he chose to abandon Gaza into the hands of this terrorist organization, rather than let Mahmoud Abbas have the key of the city. "What with Sderot? Ashkelon? And Chairman Abbas?", asked the cabinet's only voice of reason. "Don't be silly, Abbas is irrelevant. A not yet feathered chick. As for Sderot and Ashkelon, we shall say it is all because of Oslo", the PM answered. "They will gobble it up, believe me. When children bleed, mothers scream, and sirens howl, reason is deafened." Every wicked leader knows that. This is how Israel came to be plagued with an Islamist enclave it cannot live with, nor defeat, on its Egyptian border. The noxious fruit of a rotten policy. Sharon and his ministers thought that better a tiny Hamastan than a big settlement-free West Bank. After all, it is the Jewish people's right to defend itself. Never mind the Jew-haters who will claim otherwise. We can always go to the General Assembly and from there remind the world of our six million.

  • 27. 0 0
    to Ralph #19 - 5th try
    • zeev
    • 27.10.09
    • 19:51

    "I think people of the Jewish religion or who have a Jewish backround should be permited to live in Palestine." (Ralph) I think your view on the situation is twisted, distorded, and childish. No one, whatever be his religion or background, should be permitted to live in the midst of a stateless population as a foreign settler imposed on the locals by a foreign army. Israel is the very last democratic state on earth to allow its nationals to do just that. Obama doesn't want to expel anyone from anywhere. What he wants is a West Bank free of foreign settlements so that a Palestinian state can be established - so that the West Bank doesn't fall into the hands of Islamist fanatics, and Israel can survive as a Jewish and democratic western-oriented country. You surely have a serious problem grasping what is obvious to any sane clear minded person.

  • 26. 0 0
    The word of the Lord on the Holyland is not for sale
    • sam
    • 25.10.09
    • 01:44

    For the Last decade try Uganda

  • 25. 0 0
    #24 Israel can not chose its own borders, Javier
    • Johnboy
    • 24.10.09
    • 23:47

    JL: "If you want peace, draw a line in the sand that no more settlers will cross." Israel is not entitled to chose where its own borders go, because a border is there to mark the line where *your* territory ends and "someone else"'s territory begins. Get it? To UNILATERALLY draw a line in the sand is to UNILATERALLY annex the territory that lies begind it, and in the case of Israel much of that territory (indeed, most of it) has been seized by its army via war, starting all the way back to 1948. The acquisition of territory by war is ILLEGAL. Israel therefore can not simply draw its borders as and where it sees fit, and its LEGAL borders remain those defined in the Partition Plan. If it wants more than that then it needs The Other Side to sign a treaty saying so.

  • 24. 0 0
    Declare your borders, and stick to them.
    • Javier Lobo
    • 24.10.09
    • 04:51

    If you want peace, draw a line in the sand that no more settlers will cross. Stop the expansion. You don't need the Palestinians for this operation. You will need lawyers and an international legal struggle, but the line drawing process must happen. Is Israel all of Mandate Palestine? Or is it near the 1967 borders? Until Israel settles the borders problem, all the others will remain and fester.

  • 23. 0 0
    Again the victim
    • Dave Duncan
    • 23.10.09
    • 22:05

    What is limited withdrawal? It is cover for a land grab. Israel has occupied land that does not belong to it for 40 years. There are now 3 million non-Israelis living under military law--among 300,000 Israeli settlers that live under Israeli law--with far more protections, more water and more services. Who is kidding who. Israel is not the victim in the West Bank.

  • 22. 0 0
    Keep the West Bank forever
    • A Solomon
    • 23.10.09
    • 19:25

    Israel has the historic and legal right to remain in Judea and Samaria. We were there 4000 years ago, with a legal government and nation, and have since been dispersed, only to return and claim our land. The Arabs are interlopers, with no shred of legal or historic rights to this region, and no possible moral or legal basis to supplant the aboriginal population of Jews. The occupation of the West Bank by the Arabs living there is an unprecedented moral blight. Israel should no more relinquish its land than any other nation in the world today if squatters appear. It may be unpleasant to stand up to Muslims, inasmuch as they hold much of the world hostage due to their oil, but freedom and liberty and nationhood are not bought on the cheap.

  • 21. 0 0
    to the author - 4th try
    • zeev
    • 23.10.09
    • 18:46

    "By employing anachronistic and illegitimate colonialist methods, the Israel of Menachem Begin and Ariel Sharon defied international law and the demographic realities on the ground to swallow large swaths of land it was incapable of digesting." (A. Shavit) Better late than never. Why has it taken you so long? "After unilateralism was tried during the disengagement, it became clear that the latest magical solution was an illusory solution." (A. Shavit) You are portraying the Sharon of 2005 as a mere dreamer and castle builder. I find it very hard to believe you. Of his mental faculties at that time, your opinion sounds much lower than mine. "[the Israeli majority] understood that Israel had to carefully leave the territories, even though such a withdrawal would not end the conflict." (A. Shavit) No one can say for sure if it would end or not end the conflict. One thing is undeniable: As long as there are settlements and occupation, the conflict cannot end.

  • 20. 0 0
    If you are crazy you will be nuts forever
    • Robert
    • 23.10.09
    • 18:41

    If Ari Shavit likes to represent a chronic of stupidity he must looks to a mirror and write down what he watch. I see no logic in his article. Ari deliberately starts his chronic after Six-Day War because if he describes situation from 1947 or earlier it will not fit his conception. As for Ari all problems start from ?occupation?, before there was a paradise, - finish ?occupation? and we all return to this paradise again. If you have no memory, you may ask people who remember this time to tell you about Arab terror against Israel. He has not been taught by all catastrophic sequences of Oslo experiment because a fanatic has no ability for critical analysis.

  • 19. 0 0
    Expel Arabs from the West Bank is the Last Option
    • Ralph
    • 23.10.09
    • 18:40

    Obama wants to Expel 500,000 Jews from the West Bank in order to create a racialy pure Palestine where people of the Jewish religion or who have Jewish backround will not be permited to live. I think this is unfair. I think people of the Jewish religion or who have a Jewish backround should be permited to live in Palestine. Why are the Arabs against diversity? Why do they want a racialy pure State? If Obama supports the expulsion of 500,000 Jews in order to make peace in Palestine....then Israel can improve on this plan by expelling all the Arabs from the West Bank in order to make peace. I do not see the difference. Can someone explain the difference to me? I am waiting.....

  • 18. 0 0
    irrelevent policies
    • sami abu ismail
    • 23.10.09
    • 17:05

    With its dominant power and the mediocrity of Arabs, Israeli politicians can debat for as long as they can tolerate. Nothing would change the fact that this holy land belong to Palestinians and to Muslims, even despite the actual balance of power and world reality. It would not be long (on the scale of History) that all parties concerned would agree to a unified and democratic Palestine where all people of the three faiths would be forced to live together. LThe model of South Africa is but an example. There is no lunatic thinking in this but forsight.

  • 17. 0 0
    Hand West B ank to Jordan
    • sima
    • 23.10.09
    • 01:54

    It was taken from ther Jordanians. And let them figure it out.

  • 16. 0 0
    to Nick #12
    • zeev
    • 23.10.09
    • 00:28

    "What will force the Palestinians to change and demand 'one man, one vote' ?" (Nick) Be patient. Suggested reading: "Battle of the numbers: Jewish minority by 2020", [between the sea and the Jordan river] by Professor Sergio Dellapergola, of the A. Harman Institute of Contemporary Jewry, the Hebrew U in Jerusalem, and Senior Fellow at the Jewish People Policy Planning Institute. www.a-ipi.net/article30324.html

  • 15. 0 0
    Difficult situation
    • Sebastian
    • 22.10.09
    • 23:43

    Shavit is right about the situation, but there are no easy solutions. Partial withdrawals only create another South Lebanon or Gaza. The Palestinian leadership just won't accept any reasonable deal and even if they do we are giving up real assets for a piece of paper which will not be worth much in the likely case that the West Bank is also taken over by the Hamas. Maybe just annexing the settlement blocks and imposing a reasonable long term border (dismantling settlements beyond the border) but leaving the army on the other side could work. It's not perfect, but it provides security and may transform the conflict into a border dispute, while defusing the demographic and international problem. But it has lots of risks too, specially in terms of internal unity and emboldening the Palestinians to continue fighting.

  • 14. 0 0
    Hand West Bank to UN?
    • Nate Newman
    • 22.10.09
    • 22:37

    One South Lebanon is enough, we don't need a second. Everything Shavit says is right, but he offers no solution. Partial withdrawal? What on earth would that accomplish? I don't think most righties would be against that if they thought it would work, but it is folly. The article was well written, but the last paragraph brought me back down to earth.

  • 13. 0 0
    source of stupidity
    • john smiley
    • 22.10.09
    • 21:58

    Mr Shavit should look into this source of stupidity that he touches on at the opening of this artilce. These are not mere political blunders. They fundamentally emanate from racism, it is the the same blindness that doesn't let him see that Israel already is another South Africa.

  • 12. 0 0
    Why is the 2-state solution still on the table?
    • Nick
    • 22.10.09
    • 21:11

    Great article. So why are the Palestinians and the Americans still talking about a 2-state solution if its dead? I suppose I understand the US and Israel still perpetuating a policy of "ambiguity", but why the Palestinians? Why don't they forget the dream of a separate state and demand full rights in the country that controls them? Perhaps the Palestinians have also fallen for a trap in the form of the PA? It gives the illusion of sovereignty to the world, brings in lots of UN money and keeps the corrupt leaders in power. But it will never lead to anything but the "homelands" of the blacks in SA. So what will force the Palestinians to change and demand "one man, one vote"?

  • 11. 0 0
    #3 please
    • Edithann
    • 22.10.09
    • 17:06

    It took speaking to a Palestinian for you to understand? What was wrong with your powers of comprehension previously? TATA

  • 10. 0 0
    How they failed us 2
    • sh
    • 22.10.09
    • 14:35

    The press also failed us. Not enough analysis. No-one spotted that what seemed logical: i.e. our returning to what we had before 1948, was illogical from the perspective of the extra we had already added in 1948. No-one imagined that such a detail would throw into question our right to regain what we'd lost. No-one expected the others to presume to want to regain what they had lost. No-one wondered what would be done with the population we had inherited; it was assumed that most of them would go back to Jordan in exchange for peace and that the people in Jerusalem and Hebron would not mind doing what the post-48-ers had done and become citizens of the Jewish state. No-one thought to ask the Palestinians themselves, of course. And no-one thought to tell us too much either.

  • 9. 0 0
    Right Conclusion - questionable analysis
    • Ussishkin
    • 22.10.09
    • 13:12

    Shavit is right - the occupation is eating us up from within, we cannot endure with it, it must not endure with our support. Never mind the slightly distorted route he took to get there - we have to end the occupation before it ends us. Whether this works for a Prime Minister only interested in one more day in his seat, and for a Defence Minister in accumulating more millions for himself but unable or unwilling to stand up to the settlers who are the source of our corrosion, are the real questions. Shavit has not analysed that yet. He should.

  • 8. 0 0
    Cleops #4... you definitely have a case there...
    • Esther
    • 22.10.09
    • 12:09

    ...five big loaves of bread plus two big fish for breakfast, just as a fur-shpeiz, would finish off any ordinary mortal... ...the analogy with current Israel is brilliant...

  • 7. 0 0
  • 6. 0 0
    Swiss Dino..this time i am left of you
    • Meir Gush Etzion
    • 22.10.09
    • 11:41

    Ari Shavit..your bottom line is just the recipe for another decade of Nothing Good. You mention withdrawal from territory..how about settlements! If we don't move (some of us settlers) we will never prove that we really accept the possibility of a future two State solution. Jerusalem is not mentioned..Oh, if we would have taken the idea of a Saudi flag over Temple Mount..Reminding us of the reality that the Messiah just aint here and freeing us from always having to control and enter into conflict. The Time Has Come..the time is near...

  • 5. 0 0
    Israel is losing it's legitimacy
    • Chris Linthwaite
    • 22.10.09
    • 11:10

    by hanging on to the West Bank and laying siege to Gaza. This can be seen by the Global reaction of disgust and horror for Operation Cast lead. The problem Israel has is that overtime many Israelis have forgotten that the West Bank does not actually belong to Israel in a legal sense

  • 4. 0 0
    But of course, WE CAN CHANGE
    • Shimon Cleopas
    • 22.10.09
    • 10:43

    1.Whenever it comes to important hidden mysteries, preachers most often tell us just the opposite. 2.Examples: the earth is flat, the earth is the center of the universe, stars revolve around the earth, creation was done in 6 24-hour days, etc., etc. 3.The most shocking mistake made by preachers is a thousand times more grievous than Original Sin. With regards to the hidden mystery about God and The Devil, preachers have once again told us just the opposite which is the fundamental reason why there is no peace in The Middle East. 4.Get ready for the most awaited Breakfast of Five Loaves that catches the TWO BIG FISH, i.e., the Devil and The One True God. 5.The Five Loaves Formula resolves The ME Conflict justly, instantly, permanently, comprehensively and in our days. 6.Because the Formula comes from God Himself, there will be no need for debates, discussions, initiatives, accords, dialogues, etc.

  • 3. 0 0
    please
    • paul
    • 22.10.09
    • 10:09

    to understand how situation is unfair, could we Please just one time imagine we are in palestinian's place ... an army controling tel aviv, jerusalem, negeev ...where we live. Checkpoints everywhere. No israeli with pass, no israeli money beacuse everything is under palestinian control. Palestine who does not decide what borders are : Israeli houses being taken and taken everyday because some of palestinian thinking it could be good in future exchange for peace ... and hat to say about gaza ... ? I met palestinian in territories and then I undesrtood we had not to be unfair

  • 2. 0 0
    Hand the entire West Bank over to the UN. It's the only way.
    • Michael
    • 22.10.09
    • 09:46

    You want to know what Israel has to do Ari? Do the legal and legitimate and right thing. Pull the IDF out of the West Bank,including East Jerusalem, and hand the whole sorry mess Israel has made of it to the UN. They will blanket it with NATO troops and with money, as they did with Kosovo and will oversee a peaceful transition to a democratic Palestine, with Jewish as well as Arab citizens.

  • 1. 0 0
    Ari Shavit back from his (short) right-wing excursion...???
    • Swiss (Dino)
    • 22.10.09
    • 09:44

    This article makes a lot of sense, even if one doesn't have to agree with every detail in it. However, I'm afraid a "limited" withdrawal from the West Bank (honestly, I don't know what Ari Shavit means with that) won't do it for Israel this time. This time the world wants to see "the real deal".... ....and that from both sides.