The ever-cautious Abu Mazen

During his tour of the Gulf states - this time in the Qatari capital Doha - Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) declared that when the time comes to decide on a permanent solution to the conflict with Israel, he would bring the proposal to a vote via a referendum in which all Palestinians would have a say and would decide to accept or reject it. Abu Mazen made similar statements in the first days after Yasser Arafat's death. These pronouncements testify to his leadership style, which is entirely different from that of the late Palestinian Authority chairman.

Whenever Arafat was deciding on an important diplomatic issue, he was in the habit of first sending up a trial balloon, usually by way of statements issued by his aides. Then he would make a decision and embark on a campaign of persuasion among various public activists, through inducements and pressures. Abu Mazen is taking the opposite tack: He does not want to be tripped up by taking an unpopular step, so he announces that the basis for implementation of his decisions is public agreement, through a referendum. Only then, when the ground is found to be suitable, will the decision be executed.

The background to the contrast between the two men is clear. Arafat had a great deal of prestige and charisma. Many Palestinians would occasionally challenge his policies or decisions, but never his leadership per se (excepting one occasion in 1983, when a rebellion against him erupted within Fatah ranks, with Syrian support). The possibility of overthrowing Arafat never existed, not even in the last few years - the nadir of his leadership. Conversely, Abu Mazen never had Arafat's prestige or charisma: One little mistake and he could be finished.

All of which explains why Abu Mazen is so cautious in planning changes in the governmental mechanisms that will almost definitely take place immediately after his election, less than three weeks from now. Based on Palestinian reports and public statements, these changes include the removal of several members of the old guard, Arafat loyalists all, led by foreign minister Nabil Shaath and welfare minister Intisar al-Wazir (or Umm Jihad, who received her job thanks to her husband Abu Jihad, Arafat's closest friend, who was killed in an Israeli army raid in Tunis in 1988).

So that their dismissal will not give the impression of an insult to Arafat's memory, Nasser al-Kidwa - Arafat's nephew and the PLO representative to the UN - will apparently be appointed foreign minister in place of Shaath. Two or three other veteran cabinet members will be dismissed, primarily those who have gained a reputation for corruption.

The most important appointment will be that of General Nasser Yusuf to the post of interior minister responsible for the security forces. This is the same appointment that Abu Mazen wanted to suggest to his cabinet a year and a half ago but was prevented by Arafat, who did not get along at all with Yusuf. Yusuf is considered a strong man, capable of carrying out the task entrusted to him, of unifying the various forces and serving as a sort of chief of staff of all of the security branches.

A most interesting idea raised by an Abu Mazen aide is the possible appointment of a deputy to the chairman. Arafat never had a deputy or second-in-command. The deputy chairman of the PA would be a highly respected position, and the candidate being mentioned for the post is Marwan Barghouti. He is well suited to the job, on several counts.

First, the young guard considers him an acceptable and popular representative. Second, he will not cause a lot of problems or undermine the leadership of Abu Mazen, because he is in prison. It would, then, be a symbolic appointment meant to bestow respect upon the young generation and the prisoners. Some sources report that this proposal was broached to Barghouti when he withdrew his candidacy for the PA chairmanship.

Abu Mazen aides also issued reports in the Palestinian media last week, according to which substantial progress was made in talks between representatives of the Fatah movement and Hamas regarding the signing of the joint document of understandings to be known as the "pact of respect." This report is almost certainly accurate and can most certainly be seen as another right move by Abu Mazen, whose steps have so far been cautious and error-free.