The Egyptian masses won't play ally to Israel
As long as the masses in Egypt and in the entire Arab world continue seeing the images of tyranny and violence from the occupied territories, Israel will not be able to be accepted, even it is acceptable to a few regimes.
By Gideon LevyThree or four days ago, Egypt was still in our hands. The army of pundits, including our top expert on Egypt, Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, said that "everything is under control," that Cairo is not Tunis and that Mubarak is strong. Ben-Eliezer said that he had spoken on the phone with a senior Egyptian official, and he assured him that there's nothing to worry about. You can count on Fuad and Hosni, both about to become has-beens.
On Friday night everything changed. It turned out that the Israeli intelligence estimates, which were recited ad nauseum by the court analysts, were again, shall we say, not the epitome of accuracy. The people of Egypt had their say, and had the nerve not to fall in line with Israeli wishes. A moment before Mubarak's fate is sealed, the time has come for drawing the Israeli conclusions.
Not a plague of darkness in Egypt but the light of the Nile: the end of a regime propped up by bayonets is foretold. It can go on for years, and the downfall sometimes comes at the least expected time, but in the end it will happen. Not only Damascus and Amman, Tripoli and Rabat, Tehran and Pyongyang: Ramallah and Gaza are also destined to be shaken.
The hypocritical and sanctimonious division of countries by the U.S. and the West between the "axis of evil" on the one hand, and the "moderates" on the other, has collapsed. If there is an axis of evil, then it includes all the non-democratic regimes, including the "moderates" and the "stable" and the "pro-Western." Today Egypt, tomorrow Palestine. Yesterday Tunis, tomorrow Gaza.
Not only is the Fatah regime in Ramallah and the Hamas regime in Gaza destined to fall, but perhaps also, one day, the Israeli occupation, which certainly meets all the criteria of criminal tyranny and an evil regime. It too relies only on guns. It too is hated by all levels of the ruled people, even if they stands helpless, unorganized and unequipped, facing a big army. The first conclusion: Better to end it well, with agreements based on justice and not on power, a moment before the masses have their say and succeed in banishing the darkness.
A second, no less important conclusion: Alliances with unpopular regimes can be torn up overnight. As long as the masses in Egypt and in the entire Arab world continue seeing the images of tyranny and violence from the occupied territories, Israel will not be able to be accepted, even it is acceptable to a few regimes.
The Egyptian regime became an ally of the Israeli occupation. The joint siege of Gaza is irrefutable proof of that. The Egyptian people didn't like it. They never liked the peace agreement with Israel, in which Israel committed itself to "respect the legitimate rights of the Palestinian people" but never kept its word. Instead, the people of Egypt got the scenes of Operation Cast Lead.
It is not enough to have a handful of embassies in order to be accepted in the region. There also have to be embassies of goodwill, a just image and a state that is not an occupier. Israel has to make its way into the hearts of the Arab peoples, who will never agree to the continued repression of their brothers, even if their intelligence ministers will continue to cooperate with Israel.
If there's one thing shared by all factions of the Egyptian opposition, it is their seething hatred of Israel. Now their representatives will rise to power, and Israel will find itself in a difficult situation. Neither will anything remain of the virtual achievement that Netanyahu often paraded - the alliance with the "moderate" Arab regimes against Iran. A real alliance with Egypt and its sister-states can only be based on the end of the occupation, as desired by the Egyptian people, and not on a common enemy, as an interest of its regime.
The masses of the Egyptian people - please note: on all levels - took their fate in their hands. There is something impressive and cheering in that. No power, not even that of Mubarak, who Ben-Eliezer likes so much, can overcome them. In Washington the gravity of the moment has already been understood, and they were quick to dissociate from Mubarak and tried to find favor in the eyes of his people. That should happen at some point in Jerusalem.
Why Facebook Connect?
Comment on Haaretz.com articles with your Facebook login, and share your thoughts on your own wall.
- Latest
- Most Viewed
- Most Rated
- Open all
Or it won't last. Better take the Saudi Plan offer while the getting is good.
I wish a to see a Prime Minister or a politician in israel share you your vision ! you are one of those people in Israel seaking for the benefit of all of us : Arabs and Jews away from foriegn agenda .
Never has it been said so well.
"If there's one thing shared by all factions of the Egyptian opposition, it is their seething hatred of Israel. Now their representatives will rise to power, and Israel will find itself in a difficult situation." "difficult situation"? The hatred of Israel can not be more obvious.
The world is tired to live under dictator to please israel and my country american!!! The world is tired to hear poor me poor me israel!!! grow up and be a country that world can respect!
What will happen when after all the concessions Israel will have to make for peace 5 10 15 years later the Palestinians will vote for Hamas again? Israel will be left with nothing more than a worthless piece of paper.
That is precisely why you have to allow Palestinians to form a "national unity" government including Hamas to negotiate the peace treaty. Excluding Hamas and hoping to reach Peace only talking to your factotums is pure self-delusion.
If one looks at the islamic world, they seem to be getting more radicalist leaders by the day. Question: what happens if pragmatic arm of hamas joins the pa and seals a deal with israel and the radical arma leaves and begins to expand in followership till they take over the pa hezzbola style. What worth will the israeli signed peace deal be then?
I do absolutely support Gideon Levy's analysis. As revolutions have shown in history, the revolutionary will never be the final winner. I'm dead afraid of Muslim Brotherhood taking over the rudder of the riots, first supporting El Baradei and then taking over power. It would be a disaster and could not only affect Aza and Fatah ruled PA controlled areas, but also Jordan and Syria. Lebanon would remain a stronghold of Hizb'ullah and Iran would grow more potent than ever. Lets, at least, hope Sudan respects the Juba population's will. May be, if it does, Egyptian rioters would refrain from unconditioned supporting of the Muslim Brotherhood.
20 years of golden opportunity to consolidate a warm peace with Egypt and Jordan now may slip quickly between Israel's fingers into the vast sands of the deserts surrounding eretz Israel. Who gave birth to the mantra the Palestinians always missed all the opportunities to make peace? Soon the same window of opportunity with Syria will fade in the dust of the Syrian Golan Heights. The positive side of the coin: Israel may be forced to let go of its 'chutzpah' dealing with its neighbours. Here is perhaps the last opportunitiy to adapt to the new realities, and implement as quick as possible a more humble and humane attitude. By the way: The last chance for FM Avidgor Lieberman to review drastically his known and well as unknown agendas. For the sake of the whole Middle East and wider world. Do not miss that one!
Don't worry, we still have puppets in Afghanistan and Iraq until we bankrupt this country politically and economically. Why? It is because we still see something else more important than humanity.
A very important lesson all should learn. no power regardless of its brrutality or harshness can stand in the face of angry crowds who are frustrated by their oppressors whether they are their indigenous rulers or occupiers. one day, the palestinians will learn the lesson and take their fate into their hands in spite of all oppression or frustration.
Explain that!
Mr. Levi- my hat to you.
To prop up his regime. He told them, only I can keep you safe from evil and threatening Israel. I spent two months studying Arabic in Cairo and I met plenty of Egyptians who wanted to visit and see Israel for themselves, but Mubarak and his secret police prevented or intimidated them from going. Mubarak was no friend to the peace process, merely a self-interested disctator who played everyone to his own ends. Let's reach out to the Egyptian people, express our awe at their battle against tyranny, support any gov't that arises that doesn't call for our desctruction, even if it is Islamist. Let's offer the aid which will doubtless be needed once the flames die down. Let's show that we are a good neighbor before the political winds start to blow.
...we have a government committed to the Occupation while simultaneously disenfranchising the rights of minorities and ruthlessly suppressing human rights groups? And it doesn't get any better for the Jews either. Any liberal Jewish Zionisist who dares criticize its actions is labeled a self hating traitor, because he opposes the Occupation and longs for a democratic society and a two state solution based on equal dignity, respect and self determination.
All what is happening now in ME confirm your vision,Mr.Levy. With agreements based on justice and not on power , a long lasting peace could be achieved. It is in favour of humanity that the arab young generation take his fate and future in his hands. All the world must stand with us in these historical changes. The iraeli people, too.
Whatever is going on in Egypt, it has little or nothing to do with Israel. No news agency, no Twitters have linked the events with the "images of tyrrany and violence in the occupied territories". No Israeli flags have been burned by the protestors; the linkage is in Gideon's mind only.
Come on, Daniel, THINK. If Begin hadn't signed that treaty do you think the Egyptians would have given up? The Yom Kippur War would have been an annual event.....
Steadily, reality is closing in in Israel....With the fall of Mubarak, Israel finds itself one (big) step closer to a reckoning with it's unsustainable occupation. It's survival depends on a fundamental change in attitude.
Gideon, The Arab masses do not hate Israel because of the "occupation". They hate Israel because Israel is a Jewish State.No amount of territorial compromise will change their minds.The Arab masses would never accept a Jewish state if it was 1 mile by 1 mile.The lesson of the events in Egypt is that Arab regimes are unstable and a "peace treaty" signed today may be a worthless piece of paper tomorrow.
You dont play ally to ANYONE.
As long as there is an Israel on the map the masses in all Arab countries will want to destroy it- despite muddled up, egocentric lefities who make up fantastical stories to make the whole situation easier to swallow. while they ponder moral ethics in textbooks in the coffee shops of Tel Aviv
instructive examples of folks not seeing what they don't want to see.
In 1905, the Swedish intelligence where "100% sure" that a Norwegian referendum about independence would result in a yes to stay with Sweden. Then the people voted like 2 miljon for independence and 3-400 hundred(!) to stay in union with Sweden. That might have been the least competent prediciton in modern time...
I so agree with your sentiments. How could the Israel government not learn and figure out that it will now be blamed for the proping up of the Egyptian Mubarak regime. It must distance itself with clear concise phrases like Democracy for the Egyptian people, free and fair elections, human rights, allowance for political dissents. Mubarak-let your people go!. To be on Mubarak's side is both morally wrong and politically wrong and stratigically, and has been so for a whole lot of years. Some thick skinned israeli military/political analysts should be re-calibrated- The same applies to Jordan, Syria, Iran and every other autocratic dictatorship that Israel find's comfort in supporting. Democracies do not start wars-dictatorships do.
I agree. Fuad ought to be quiet. He favors himself as some kind of strategist. He didn't have a clue about Egypt or the fact that 1/2 his party was plotting to leave.