The big wink

On the eve of every battle, David Ben-Gurion would come down with the flu. It's not clear whether it was a real flu, a psychosomatic flu or just a legend that has been handed down through the generations. In any case, it's no small matter when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cancels an important trip to Germany at the last minute because of a "slight flu," especially when, according to media reports, this cancellation cost the government half a million shekels.

The next day, as well as on the following days, Bibi actually looked healthy and active. So healthy that he began work on the settlement freeze - declaring proudly that "the decision on the freeze is one-off and temporary. The settlers are our brothers and sisters. It's important to me to make it clear that the freeze is only for 10 months and that on its final day we will resume construction."

While Civil Administration inspectors continue handing out freeze and demolition orders in several settlements - at least those that have let them in - many settlers have torn up the official orders in front of the inspectors, while cursing and warning that the situation is liable to deteriorate into a civil war. And as the uprising gradually spreads and Defense Minister Ehud Barak declares that government decisions must be carried out even if force is required, Bibi continues to utter placating words reminiscent of Levi Eshkol's "half-tea, half-coffee."

"The future of the settlement enterprise will be decided only in a final status agreement and on our terms," Netanyahu said, reassuring the extremists. What he is letting people understand by that is that it's important to please the U.S. administration, while at the same time preparing the enema - the reader will forgive me if I tell it like it is.

When serious and extremist politicians like Likud MK Benny Begin voted to freeze construction, we cannot assume that means they've since converted to being Peace Now activists. Bibi convened the senior ministers, one or two at a time, and winked at them in some way to indicate that it's all just talk. To put it nicely - he told them he was "torn," but in any case nothing will come of it.

This is also why, from the perspective of veteran observers, his character, behavior and shticks have not changed since his first term. One reason King Hussein of Jordan admired late prime minister Yitzhak Rabin was because he could be taken at his word. A recently published political biography of the king by Israeli historian Avi Shlaim describes how Hussein looked on brokenhearted as Netanyahu dismantled the cornerstones of the peace process one after the other, lowered the Palestinian threshold of expectations and worked to weaken the Palestinian Authority and postpone the withdrawal stages that had been decided on in the Oslo Accords.

At the same time, Netanyahu issued instructions to build 2,000 housing units in the Jordan Valley. Within a short time, "he managed to alienate Israel's allies in the world." At the Mayo Clinic in the United States, where King Hussein was hospitalized on his deathbed, the doctors and nurses used to say he'd contracted the "Bibi virus."

But let's say that the 10-month freeze passes, then what? In a short conversation with me, Ephraim Halevy, former head of the Mossad, levels harsh criticism against the U.S. administration. When the Americans demand that Bibi make a gesture to strengthen PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen), they apparently fail to understand that Abu Mazen is not capable of being a partner to peace negotiations. The Bush administration once supported Mohammed Dahlan, the former PA security chief in Gaza, as the ideal leader for negotiations with Israel, and look how he evaporated. U.S. President Barack Obama needs a Palestinian leader who is acceptable to all the Palestinians. Not a partner like Abu Mazen - who criticizes Obama, describes Israel as a "destroyer of nations" and does nothing. Anyone who wants to strengthen the PA, says Halevy, must release Marwan Barghouti, who was the leader of Fatah in the West Bank.

Netanyahu made a clever tactical move when he initiated the 10-month construction freeze. Why be the only guilty ones in the eyes of the world, when the Palestinians are once again returning to their traditional habit of missing every opportunity? "We will thin out construction in the settlements a little, but after 10 months we will resume building," Netanyahu has reassured the settlers. The Palestinians will drag their feet, but what if the Americans present a plan? Bibi is convincing the extremist Likud activists that in a final-status agreement the settlement blocs will enjoy a respectable position.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians are playing into Likud's hands. They are not returning to the negotiating table, Abu Mazen is busy being mad at Obama instead of seizing the moment. If I were a Palestinian, I wouldn't wait another minute; I would shout to Abu Mazen: begin immediate diplomatic negotiations on the basis of two states for two peoples, or go home. By their refusal to do so, they are playing into the hands of the extremists in Israel.

Netanyahu's step may be a tactical one, full of winking, as though he's going for the big thing - but it's not necessarily a strategic move. What is certain is that the political biography that will be written about him when the time comes will be called "The Big Wink."