The beginning of the end of the occupation

From the moment Sharon unveiled his unilateral disengagement plan for evacuating all the settlements in the Gaza Strip - in a February 2 Haaretz interview - and on that same day in the Likud faction of the Knesset, he has displayed an obstinate consistency in going ahead with it.

As an individual whose word is not always his word, what Sharon says is not always what he does, and he doesn't always say what he is doing. But this time he is not only staying true to his declaration, he is working determinedly and quickly to implement it.

In the many interviews he has given since February 2, and especially before Passover, he has not changed one iota of his original strategic turnaround.

"The vacuum is working against Israel, therefore we cannot go on ... We cannot continue ruling another people ... We must leave the places in which in any case we will not remain in a final arrangement..."

Sharon, who volunteered to evacuate all the Gaza Strip settlements and four "problematic" settlements in Samaria, said on February 2, and has not retracted it since, "this is not to be seen as the end of the process. If the Palestinians want to sit with us and negotiate, we will discuss the continuation with them."

Not only has Sharon not retracted anything, he has given instructions to prepare to put the plan into operation quickly. Shaul Mofaz, chiefly responsible for implementation, not only supports the plan, he says that by the end of May, "it will all be behind us, including cabinet and Knesset approval."

Mofaz believes the plan is an ideological statement that will obligate future governments. Although when Sharon presented his initiative he noted that organized evacuation of the Gaza settlers might take a year or two, Mofaz this week said it might be possible to "do something" even before November. "Something President Bush can call an achievement for himself on the eve of elections."

Sharon made clear when he presented his plan that nothing would be done without coordination with the Americans. But the expected meeting tomorrow at the White House is between a president who is not sure whether he will remain president and a prime minister who is not sure he will remain in office.

Bush's agenda at this time is not exactly the same as Sharon's. What is happening in Iraq two months before the transfer of the reins of government to the Iraqis and seven months before American elections is not exactly the answer to Bush's most fervent prayer.

American presidents do not like private Israeli initiatives. Carter was livid when Begin and Dayan secretly planned Sadat's visit to Israel. But without subsequent American involvement, the peace agreement with Egypt would not have come to pass.

It is doubtful that under other circumstances Bush would have adopted the unilateral disengagement plan - but he will support it. If Sharon wants to be the first Israeli prime minister to dismantle settlements, Bush will not be the first president to stand in his way. On the contrary - even if his enthusiasm for it is not sky high, he will see to it that Sharon's plan has strong legs to stand on.

Sharon will enjoy a great show of friendship in Washington. Bush will not want to create the impression that terror cuts off relationships with friends. Nevertheless, he is not in a position to issue a far-reaching public pro-Israeli declaration. In carefully worded formulations and verbal understandings, assurances will be given - and even "financial support" - in the form of increasing loan guarantees for "the development of the Negev."

Bush and Blair, two leaders in trouble, need some kind of success with regard to our conflict so as not to lose the Arab world. Sharon will return from Washington with a green light for his plan. It might not be exactly what he wanted, but it will give him enough of a tail wind to continue to pursue this, the most intensive and consistent leadership chapter in his life.

From the time he went public with his initiative, and until the Likud membership referendum, 12 weeks will have passed. If Mofaz is right, and the Likud, the cabinet, and the Knesset all approve the initiative, Sharon's plan may be deemed, to paraphrase Churchill, the beginning of the end of the occupation.