Start with the outposts

The American administration's body language toward Israel is changing for the worse. The consideration, sympathy and esteem American presidents have toward Israel are not what they used to be, at least not since Obama's election. Even when their presidents and our prime ministers loathed each other, like Menachem Begin and Jimmy Carter for example, it did not stop them from working together to achieve a peace treaty.

Relations between American presidents and Israeli prime ministers have had their ups and downs, not to mention abortive agreements. The Ehud Barak, Yasser Arafat and Bill Clinton summit at Camp David was not properly prepared for and led to the deadliest intifada of all. George H.W. Bush revoked our guarantees because of Yitzhak Shamir's refusal to participate in an international conference with the Palestinians.

George W. Bush admired Ariel Sharon and was very easy for Israel to get along with. We had Bush's vision, we had the road map and even Annapolis, and nothing has come out of any of them.

And there was also a quarrel between Menachem Begin and the most popular American ambassador to Israel, Samuel Lewis, toward whom Begin asked the famous rhetorical question "Are we a vassal state?" It happened when the ambassador announced the suspension of the strategic memorandum of understanding between the two countries following the Knesset's passing of the Golan Law without consulting America.

Who would have believed we'd see Benjamin Netanyahu in the role of a poor man's Begin? At the open part of the cabinet session this week, in response to the American administration's protest of the plan to build in East Jerusalem, he said, "Our sovereignty over the city is not subject to appeal."

Obama played into Bibi's hands when he jumped from the construction freeze in the settlements directly to Jerusalem.

This altercation does not bode well. We did not expect a public quarrel after Obama's Cairo speech and Bibi's answer at Bar-Ilan. Both those speeches didn't move anything anyway. The Palestinians are keeping quiet; not a single bush has been uprooted in the territories and not one balcony has been frozen out of construction.

In this state of affairs, with Obama's prestige in the balance, the administration will likely initiate its own plan, with or without coordination with Israel, perhaps even one consisting of a forced arrangement. To the best of my knowledge, Ehud Barak is acting - with Bibi's agreement - to forge a partnership with an agreed upon American plan. Go see if the one-week vacation Barak has taken in Ireland is really in Ireland and is indeed a vacation.

And see if Obama's envoys are talking only about the standstill vis-a-vis the Palestinian issue or also about an arrangement with Syria. Perhaps there are talks between Israel and the Americans and perhaps there aren't.

In any case, anyone who thinks we'll exhaust the Americans is wrong. Why? Because the conflict requires the Americans to choose sides. Each choice has a price tag.

"The United States' strategic interest derives, among other things, from having no interest in paying the price for choosing sides," says Dan Halperin, an expert on U.S.-Israeli relations.

The Obama administration's attitude toward us is becoming increasingly formal. They focused the conflict mainly on the settlements, as though if this problem were solved the entire conflict would be solved and 100 years of hatred would disappear in a blink of an eye. As though the building of one additional room for a family who had twins will determine whether or not there is peace.

Political deadlock in the Middle East produces terror. A political standstill here also weakens Obama, who must solve the Iranian threat. It is also not good for us should Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reach the conclusion that Obama is nothing more than a microphone president - one whose words speak louder than his actions.

Our reputation precedes us as tricksters who don't understand hints. This time it's the hints about the danger in a confrontation with the United States. It may not do anything to harm Israel's security, as Brig. Gen. (res.) Mendy Meron believes, but our superior status in the world, due to special relations with the United States, could be seriously impaired.

Obama is expected to present his plan in September. Before we submit all our conditions and demands from the Palestinians, it's important for Israel to implement all the things it has undertaken to do. One fine day it must dismantle all 23 illegal outposts forcibly. Not for Jerusalem, not for the Palestinians and not for Obama - but for our image as a law-abiding state.