Shalit is still in Gaza

Consider the release of Lebanese prisoners for the bodies of Israel Defense Forces soldiers abducted and hauled away to Lebanon; the release of another five Palestinian prisoners last week as part of that same deal; the freeing of a Hamas government minister and a parliament member; the granting of free passage to dozens of Fatah men from the Gaza Strip to the Palestinian Authority-controlled West Bank; and the prime minister's vow to "release for Abu Mazen" at least100 more Palestinian prisoners. These examples attest to the futility of the debate over releasing prisoners.

As has been made clear to us again and again, prisoners have become goods passed from one merchant to the next, all as part of the government's dialogue with terrorist organizations, or as part of diplomatic talks, even when that dialogue doesn't yield any noteworthy outcome. More than 11,000 Palestinian prisoners remain in Israeli jails, and a negligible number have been there since before the Oslo Accords. Tens of thousands of prisoners have been released since then, only a few of them after serving their sentences in full, others in a swap for Israeli captives, and the rest as a gesture to the Palestinian leadership or as a reward for its cooperation.

Yet each time the government must decide whether to release an additional batch of prisoners, the same debate erupts. A prime example is the argument over the release of prisoners in exchange for Gilad Shalit. For two years and two months, Shalit has been held captive by Hamas - two years and two months in which the government has been pondering whether to release prisoners to win his release, and if so, which prisoners. The sense is that the government may be waiting for a miracle in the territories after such a long, taxing negotiation with a stubborn, cruel enemy. Perhaps it is hoping for something that will not compel it to submit to Hamas' demands, some unforeseen gimmick that will allow it to "save face" and wash its hands of the affair.

As Israel's experience with Hezbollah teaches, miracles do not happen. Hamas continues to consolidate its hold over Gaza, its row with Fatah continues to deepen, and the recent clashes and expulsion of Fatah members from the Strip demonstrate that attempts for reconciliation have a hard time yielding dividends. More than in the past, Hamas leaders feel that Shalit isn't just an asset that can be traded for Palestinian prisoners. He is also a defensive shield that can ward off an Israeli military operation, and he can serve as a valuable bargaining chip in Hamas' efforts to open the border crossings with Egypt. The conditions Hamas is demanding for Shalit's release continue to swell, and time is becoming an enemy for both Shalit and the Israeli government.

Last weekend, Amos Gilad once again traveled to Egypt for the exhausting negotiations over Shalit's release. Does he bring news of any developments showing that the prime minister is really doing everything in his power to win Shalit's release? Highly doubtful.

It also seems that Shalit's release is no longer a top media priority. And when the media go away, so do the politicians. It appears some people are convinced that the Israeli public underwent a traumatic experience with the exchange of Lebanese prisoners for the kidnapped soldiers, to the point that it is unable to absorb a similar blow to its prestige that would accompany any deal for Shalit. This is a delusion. The Israeli public wants to see Gilad Shalit alive and home now. The release of 450 prisoners and their relocation to a besieged Gaza Strip will neither enhance nor harm Israel's security.