Policy in no-man's-land
Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's trip to Europe this week once again illustrated that the 'peace process' is the most convenient diplomatic situation for Israel.
By Aluf BennPARIS - Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's trip to Europe this week once again illustrated that the "peace process" is the most convenient diplomatic situation for Israel. Conducting high-level talks between Israel and the Palestinian Authority; Israel's willingness to discuss the principles for ending the conflict; and gestures such as the release of prisoners are in themselves sufficient to remove international pressure on Israel to withdraw from the territories and to end the occupation.
At the same time, as long as it's all talk and there are no agreements or decisions that involve the evacuation of territories and the settlements, there is no internal pressure on the government either. The coalition continues to function and is not confronting demonstrations and protest from the right.
Olmert is well aware of that, and his policy is to march in the no-man's-land between talk and action. In all of his appearances in Paris and in London, Olmert lowered expectations regarding the Annapolis summit. "It's not a summit," he said repeatedly. What is it? "When you say summit you think of several days of discussions and negotiations between the participants. That is not the goal of the meeting in Annapolis, which from the beginning was to create an environment that will encourage direct talks." In other words, a photo op of statesmen expressing support for the "two-state solution" without discussing its content.
According to Olmert, the joint declaration to be presented at the summit will relate to all the "core issues," but will not offer solutions - only guidelines for detailed negotiations later on. And even if an agreement is achieved in the future, its implementation will be subject to the "road map." In other words, in the initial stage, ending Palestinian terror.
To translate the diplomatic language, Olmert is saying the following: I am responding to international expectations and talking to Mahmoud Abbas, although it is clear to me and to him that the situation on the ground will not change as a result of these talks. If I present a "diplomatic horizon" to the Fatah leaders, they may have a chance of surviving on the West Bank. And even if they fall and Hamas takes control of Ramallah, Nablus and Hebron, Israel will not be to blame. Meanwhile, we must not rush with negotiations, and implementation must be postponed, so that my coalition will not fall apart and my government will have an agenda.
Upon his return from Europe, Olmert is able to chalk up a victory. Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown adopted his message, and only encouraged him to continue with the rapprochement and the gestures to Abbas, and offered "support and involvement in the process." According to all the signs, Olmert did not hear any criticism of the settlements and the separation fence.
The media in France and Britain ignored Olmert almost completely; his meetings with the Jewish communities took place in half-empty halls; and in the streets there was not even a sign of the handful of demonstrators who greeted Ariel Sharon with posters in favor of Palestine. We can conclude from this that as long as there is no crisis, the "world" is not interested in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict or its solution. It is satisfied that the sides are talking to each other. The general consensus that Abbas is weak and cannot deliver is preventing pressure on Israel for the time being.
In the internal Israeli arena, the prevailing feeling that "nothing will come of it" also helps the prime minister. The Annapolis summit and the talks preceding it are arousing absolutely no public interest. The opposition on the right and the left is silent. Olmert says that the coalition will get through the Annapolis summit successfully, and that "when the time comes" the future agreement will enjoy the support of most of the Jews in Israel.
He is not the first to benefit from the convenience of an ongoing "peace process" whose end is unknown - "There are no sacred dates," said Yitzhak Rabin. They used to say in condemnation of Israel that this policy is a plot designed to anesthetize international public opinion, and to cover for the expansion of the settlements and the devouring of lands. But Olmert, as opposed to his predecessors, declared from the very beginning that he wanted to leave the territories. He does not sanctify a single rock or hill. His motives are different: He wants to remain in power and to maintain broad political support for his diplomatic steps.
The only question is how long he can continue to march this way in no-man's-land, until the indifference turns into disappointment - which will increase the danger of a flare-up with the Palestinians, or could once again ignite the internal debate.
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Don't be COY about your feelings, akiva, let it out in the open. Victor does.... A: "But in reality, they have an agenda, exposed again and again, repeatedly for the entire history of our beloved Israel: Judeinrein Arab land from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea." Come on then, akiva, give us your solution; it clearly isn't to reach a PEACE with your arab neighbors, because you insist that this is not possible. You aren't even interested in ATTEMPTING *that*, are you, because it's all a dastardly trick by the Arabs, hey? Any such negotiations would just a sneaky means of slitingt YOUR throat while you sleep in your bed, correct? So come on then, spit it out...... What do you want to do about it? Kill 'em all, perhaps, and let G-d sort out the bodies??? Racist, war-mongering, hubris-laden, and more than a little out of touch with reality. That's akiva. Watch out, akiva, coz I think the paranoids are after you..........
VH: "the arabs have refused all of these benefits and have nothing CONCRETE to offer!" The Saudi Plan lists the agenda for the give-and-take of Final Status Negotiations, Victor. That plan posits that Israel GIVES this: Withdrawal to the '67 line Allows an independent Palestine Negotiates a settlement of the refugee problem that is compatible with Res 194. In return, the Arabs GIVE to Israel this: Peace. Recognition. Normalization. Trade in the region. Regonal Cooperation. Regional Security. International acceptance. Now, I really *do* understand where you are coming from Victor when you say this: VH: "the arabs have refused all of these benefits" What you MEAN is that the Arabs should give all that to Israel, and Israel should grab it with both hands, and as far as you are concerned once that happens then the conflict is over. Put simply: the Arabs GIVE, and Israel TAKES, but the Arabs getting nothing in return. Right, Victor?
Aluf Benn, Thanks as always for giving it to us striaght as much as I deplore what Olmert and Bush are doing dancing around the Palestinian issue with their stupid horizors-I remain steadfast in my efforts to kicking the settlers out of the territories with others. In fact, I am attending a conference in a couple of days which promises to be filled to the rafters with like minded people and we mean business. That's for sure. Some time ago we delivered coffins to lawmakers offices draped in the Palestinian flag to symbolize what American aid was doing to the Palestinian people in their homeland under Israeli rule. So Olmert should count his blessings we aren't in Paris as I can assure the streets would be far from quiet and the Hotel area too. Thanks, anyway, Dutch
That's not only a problem with Olmert. To lazily relax, because the calm of the instant seems to allow it and because we are "out off the wood" if we pass the buck to others or if things develop in a wrong way (the right or the Palestinians for example) because not much is at present really settled, this kind of passivity is not without danger and near to irresponsibility. Still we might have a feeling for the limitations of Olmert's power and for Israeli interior and exterior tensions. So, maybe it is not so much the task of Olmert to risk the present situation by harsh actions "from above", but rather it might be your and other journalist's and analyst's task, inside and outside of Israel, to perseveringly clarify and criticise, not much different from the way you already do. Just go ahead...
I can "recover" because you are going tot ake a break?? Why is your week long pass from the "home" over??? I see anyone who disagrees with you is "sick"? Once again as I was saying, you have some very severe double standards and arrogance to deal with.
Once again you evade my points.its hard to have a discussion when I respond to you point by point but you change the subject.Not very honest Swiss.Now about compassion, please spare me the crap okay?? Arabs have ZERO comapssion for Jews, their dream is that we all croak get it? This is about creating a livable future for both peoples so Israel at least(what they do with themselves is of no intrest to me) can move on in life and reach its full potential.I am also eager for israel to qualify for associate status in europe, as despite the often deviant views of the euro vox populi, the euro elites are quite savvy and Israel would gain alot by having europe as the focus of their regional integration instead of the deranged ME.Compassion? go preach to the arabs,they are the ones who kill their wifes and daughters over "honour", one can only shudder at the tender mercies they have in store for the Jews if they could get the chance.
...with regard to this thread: If there is a secret deal going on behind the scenes, I will be the first one to apologize to Mr. Olmert. But until then, I have to make my judgement according to the public statements I hear. And there I was a bit disappointed from what I heard from Ehud Olmert on Sunday. I simply believe that if you wanna really achieve something in Annapolis, you have to go there with a positive attitude and not a pessimistic (fatalistic ??) one.... P.S. Danite can "recover" a bit over the coming days, I am going to take a break....
No explanation required.
Hi Smadar, look I did not pick up a fight with Danite. He simply didn't like one of the first posts I wrote after coming back here. Well, "didn't like" is probably the understatement of the year...:). I conceed, it was kind of controversial (the co- responsibility of Israels political establishment when it comes to certain anti-Semitic stereotypes), but he just "freaked out" afterwards. If you had read his posts there, you definitely would not consider him "European friendly". Look, I assume that has to do with history, and I told him that I couldn't take it amiss. The problem is, he wasn't really able to challenge a single one of my arguments. And as long as he isn't doing so, it's a bit hard for me to respond in a serious way to his posts. I just hope it won't have to end in a "relationship" like the one Danite has with Tosefta (right now, it looks pretty much this way...). P.S. Again, your truly moderate posts are very much appreciated here.
Were any of us really fooled when the master liar Olmert pledged months ago to deal in good faith with the outstanding I/P issues pror to the Annapolis conference? His ONLY interest is to remain in power and he will sacrifice anything to retain that power.
It is clear to all that today the Palestinias cannot carry out what will be expected of them as a result of a peace agreement. Furthermore if such an agreement is achieved and Israel withdraws precipitously the result will be indeed a terror state on the Palestinian side. It need not be this way. A careful definition of the process can effectively eliminate that risk. This will happen if there is a peace agreement which is acceptable to both Palestinians and Israelis. I am convinced that such an agreement exists, and once a shelf agreement is described and an implementation process to reach is is defined the risk of instability at the end is all but elliminated.
...only "compassion" on Israels political establishment because it seems like they will never "get it". And for the Israeli people for not "getting that" and finally "give them hell". Also "compassion" on the Palestinians who still haven't "gotten" that a peaceful Intifada would bring them much quicker to an independent state. And to be honest, a bit "compassion" on you too, Danite.... Just a little bit.
This forum is an example of many many other forums which abound in idle talk. "Jew hater" is the responce of many to valid criticizm which has nothing to do with Jew hating. "War monger" is the responce of many to Israel's action which are not understood because of the general context, the repeated statements by peace loving Arabs that the 'Right of return' is holy which are tantamount to the statement that the Jews of Israel are to be turned into a persecuted minority. "Palestinians support terror" is another response to the fact that Palestinians do not act against terror. The point that is missed is that the Palestinians are split because today there is no clear road to peace, so minorities dominate and cannot be controlled. Rather them make idle comments better think of solutions. Those exist. See: http://www.mideastweb.org/log/archives/00000619.htm
Excuse me for interrupting your conversation, but Swiss I believe that Danite doesn't "hate everything European and Arab", but on the contrary. Danite repeatedly has suggested that Israel should consider joining the European Union and become more like Europe, leaving behind the Arabs to fend for themselves once a peace agreement is signed. But Danite also appreciates many things of the Middle Eastern cultures, except for Islamic extremism. This approach I don't agree with as Israel would have to have close relations with all the Arab countries in the aftermath of an agreement. What's regrettable is that the older generation of Jewish people coming from these regions, won't be around within the next decade to help us along. Let's hope the region becomes more accomodating and open-minded.
Not steady = not serious
Aluf Benn has written an insightful, good article. I fail to see though, why would Abbas, who certainly knows what Aluf Benn is saying, acquiess to it.
I think, both the palestinians and the Israelis, are very much used to holding negotiations without any results. I think I would feel that both sides are serious; personally, when they both ask Jordan to join in a tri-partite negotiations process.
"better change your ways"?? You say oooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhh that sounds scarry swiss!!! How come such a liberated euro like yourself is making threats, and like i said your euro arrogance is showing, who are you determine what I am here????? As for being nationalist it isnt me that cheers for ultra right wing nationalist parties that want to ban minaret construction is it.I would suggest that it is you that have a credibility gap not me.Like I said I guess their is one set of rules for euros and nanother for the pushy jews right?
We all know what happenes to people who want more and more and more, they over stretch themselves and lose everything. History is littered with the evidence. This is make or break time for Israel and I would suggest she makes peace deals now before it's too late.
Danite, if you were not blinded by your hate against everything European and Arab, you would have realized that all my criticism against Israel has one theme: I don't blame it on the Jewish people, I blame it on the ongoing conflict with the Palesti- nians (lost moral values...). And I am "bashing" Israel for not doing enough to end this conflict. That's pretty much about it. And no, "greed" is not a Jewish problem, it is a problem of nations with too much power. And too much power always leads to arrogance and greed. That's human nature and doesn't have anything to do with being Jewish or not. And remember, I wrote once in a post that "Zionism" is not a bad thing, only ideological or nationalistic "Zionism". You are not a Zionist ideologue, but you are a Zionist nationalist and that's your problem. Being a patriot is a good thing, being a nationalist is a disaster. Better change your ways if you want to be taken seriously in the future....
This has nothing to with my pride and everything to do with the racism so deep in europeans like you that you dont even notice it.I have yet to hear you complain about anybody elses "greed" and a whole nation having a desease, or maybe you do that in private with your fellow swiss when you talk about arabs??? the point I am making swiss is that anti semitic imagery and discourse is so deep in your culture that you dont even realise it.I dont need to prove anything, you prove it for me by the nature of your posts.You would never say things like about the muslism, but you cheer a aprty that wants to ban minaret construction in Swizterland, I guess their is one set of standards for good europeans and another for the others????? It also how you call my comments barking,again another european trait to talk with disrespect towards others, well here is what you comments are HATE SPEECH.get it??? Mr Phony!!
Maybe I'm reading the situation wrongly but I believe that PM Olmert is not interested in his just remaining at the helm of the current Israeli government. Olmert is genuinely keen on reaching an agreement with the Palestinians based on the already revealed Israeli stance on the core issues (Haim Ramon) discussed through media reports. There's no doubt that Olmert is challenged by members of his coalition but really at the end of the day, they'll have to conform to U.S. pressure. Unfortunately, the PA is not ready to control the security situation and this is the main stumbling block, hence, unable to announce timelines, commitments,etc. But I'm pretty convinced that PM Ehud Olmert is able to reach a peace agreement very soon and is doing the best he can with all the interferring variables concerned.
It does appear from your Old Testament scriptures that a man will come along someday and arrange an Israeli-Palestinian "peace". It is just that sort of leader who will betray your people and your country on the altar of his devilish ego. So, this merry-go-round of talks will continue until the cows come home and a world leader comes upon the scene. Doesn't sound like the Pals are going to give away anything otherwise.
Danite, still not gotten over it...??? You know, the funny thing is, with all your "barking" over the last days, you were not able to disprove a single one of my points, be it on this thread or on the other ones. Which leaves me with no other conclusion that actually you do AGREE with me, but your pride just won't let you admit it. Right...??? It's also funny that it takes a Conservative diaspora-Jew like Polybios to also see my "other" posts, but Danite in his hurted pride keeps on ignoring them and keeps on cosing up to his right-wing buddies peter and co., although he knows exactly that their policies are a pure disaster for Israel and the rest of the world. Again, let me know when you "got over it", "buddy"....
Perhaps the situation for the forthcoming summit is how Aluf Benn describes it, much to his disappointment, of course.It is a well known fact that Aluf is very eager to see the end of Israel as a Jewish state .He would be naive to think that Israel would just withdraw from the territories and give up Jerusalem and obtain nothing in return except more terror and rocket attacks from the Yehuda ve Shomron until the palestinians get what they really want and that is the destruction of Israel, as the President of Iran keeps on reminding the world.
With all your talk of israeli desease it sounds like Jews need to be isolated for the good of humanity to stop the spread of this desease.or maybe better maybe Israelis need to resettled in the east??? Dehumanising Jews is the european desease.You seem to have it very strong.
Lynn, I am not a psychoanalyst, but my 39-years Swiss life-experience are enough to give me a feeling on whether an Israeli (or Palestinian) PM is willing to do everything in his might to reach a goal, or not. And the language he uses is a very decisive indicator for making such a judgement. By the way, I fully agree with you on the refugee question, those Palestinians in Lebanon, Jordan, Syria etc. who lived there for decades now and would like to bemcome citizen should be allowed to do so. That definitely would help take away some pressure from the whole refugee problem.
According to many Pals I have spoken with and am friends with, what they want is to be called citizens of the countries they live in. Like being able to say I am Jordanian. It is humiliating to them to be known as refugees and have to carry that status for a lifetime. If that issue alone were settled, the peace process would move along much swifter then it is.
Maybe he is being a realist without all the fluff you think is important.
You're such a gentle soul. What do you do when war and persecution have driven your back against a wall, (in Israel's case, THE KOTEL)? According to your post, the Arabs have a so-called "peace" to offer, as if, on a silver platter. But in reality, they have an agenda, exposed again and again, repeatedly for the entire history of our beloved Israel: Judeinrein Arab land from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.
"General Keith Dayton praises PA efforts to improve security in the WB". He also states that without more efficient help from outside they will not be able to do the job. But the statement by the general is a clear indication that the (West Bank) Palestinians are serious. It really looks now that for the Israelis the moment of truth has come: Namely to tell the world whether they really want to share the land with their Palestinian neighbours or whether all the statements by Israeli leaders in the past were nothing but a PR-bluff. Where the Israeli opposition stands on this one is clear, but I'm afraid this time Israels "mainstream" will not be able to dodge this question.
and jb the arabs have refused all of these benefits and have nothing CONCRETE to offer! the total absurdity that arab "leopards" can change their spots can only appeal to morons that believe in piecrust promises !
You posts,:"...through technology and pluck, and maybe with the help of a few friends, the Palestinians may forge their own salvation." Isn't this exactly what we have been waiting for? If Israel is indeed waiting for an inducement, it really does need to come from the undeniability of a legitimate and non-threatening PA. nu-?-
As a rule, successful negotiations require a common aim; in management-labor talks, for example, both sides want to get back to work. When a shared premise is lacking, not only do negotiations usually fail, but they usually do more harm than good. Such is the case in the forthcoming Annapolis, Maryland, talks. One side (Israel) seeks peaceful coexistence while the other (the Arabs) seeks to eliminate its negotiating partner, as evidenced by its violent actions, its voting patterns, replies to polls, political rhetoric, media messages, school textbooks, mosque sermons, wall graffiti, and much else. One should therefore not place too much stock in PM Olmert's willingness or unwillingness to reach a agreement or in the political constraints he faces at home. It is the underlying premise that the Palestinians are truly willing to live at peace with the Jewish State of Israel that is in doubt.
VH: "the basis of all agreements that have meaning is tht both sides have something to exchange ! the arabs have nothing to exchange ! period !" Peace. Recognition. Normalization. Trade in the region. Regonal Cooperation. Regional Security. International acceptance. All that comes to Israel, and can only come to Israel via the Arabs signing a piece of paper that says: "We are happy now. We no longer have any outstanding issues between us and the State of Israel. We can all just get on with our own lives now, because there is no reason for anyone to keep picking on Israel any more." That's what the Arabs are offering, Victor. Which all looks pretty desirable to me but, then again, I'm not a war-loving, hate-mongering, land-grabbing, racist loonie. Not like some people I've come across......
AB: "The only question is how long he can continue to march this way in no-man's-land, until the indifference turns into disappointment - which will increase the danger of a flare-up with the Palestinians, or could once again ignite the internal debate." Of course. If Olmert starts talking to Abbas and it becomes transparently clear that he has no interest in anything other than talk for the sake of talking, then OF COURSE the Palestinians are going get fed up, and they are going to explode. WHY WOULDN'T THEY, once it becomes obvious that TALK isn't gonna get them anywhere? Abbas would be a dead man. Hamas will take power in the West Bank, and it will be a 3rd intifada - this time IRAN feeding the fire. Lotta people will die. And for what purpose? So that Olmert can keep his sorry ass in the Big Chair for a little while longer? Excuse me if I don't think THAT gain is really worth the cost.
The Palestinian problem is not the central problem in the region. Arab countries never wanted a Palestinian state. Palestinians never wanted a Palestinian state. When the PLO was founded and the Arabs held all territories, the destruction of Israel was the aim, not a separate state. Today, and all polls show this, the Palestinians want TWO states which would sooner or later merge into one: besides a Palestinian state they want a binational Israel with all Palestinian refugees and which would soon be another Arab country. Short, they have not accepted Israel as a Jewish State and therefore they rejected Taba where 97% of the territories including Jerusalem were offered. The Palestinians will continue to reject everything as long as they can put hope in a nuclear Iran and the help from its pawns like Hamas. The trip by Olmert dealt rightly with Iran and not with the Palestinians. First the core issue must be solved and this is the nuclear time bomb ticking in Iran.
dino, the basis of all agreements that have meaning is tht both sides have something to exchange ! the arabs have nothing to exchange ! period !
"Annapolis conference will not bring historic breakthrough" Ehud Olmert, 21.10.2007 I wonder, is this really the statement of a leader who truly wants to achieve peace for his people and his country...??? If he wanted to damp the expections before the summit, couldn't he have said: "I can't guarantee that Annapolis will become a success, but I will try everything possible to make it a historic breakthrough". You see, that makes all the difference.
If the "peace process" is all talk and no action, this is a success for Israel. "Progress" in the peace process would entail Israel giving up land in the territories. Although most consider this prospect inevitable, they would not expect to begin until Israel was at risk to do otherwise. With weak and indifferent America leadership ignoring the fact that Israel is ignoring peace efforts, it may be a long time until a real peace process begins. In the meantime, through technology and pluck, and maybe with the help of a few friends, the Palestinians may forge their own salvation. If they can place enough pressure upon Israel of the right type, Israel will cave, since the end result has always been understood anyway. Israel is just waiting for an inducement.