Obama and Netanyahu can't afford to disagree
Trust between the two leaders is a necessity for anyone who wants to see a more stable Mideast.
By David Makovsky Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu Israel US Middle East peace Israel newsIt is widely known that the poor relationship between U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands at the center of U.S.-Israeli tension.
Yet, it is hard to be hopeful for a variety of reasons. They relate to differences of outlook between them in three key areas: the relationship between vision and trust, different attitudes toward timing and different approaches to the nexus between policy and politics.
First, there is a paradox between vision and trust. For cerebral Obama, who does not bond with foreign leaders instinctively, the one way to build trust is to share a common strategic vision.
This is not unique to the U.S. president. The history of American-Israeli relations illustrates that when the United States and Israel agree on a common strategic vision, as they did during the period of Ehud Barak, Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert, Washington is less focused on where they differ.
The corollary is when they don't share a common direction, the United States is hard-nosed on the differences, as it was during when George Bush Sr. was opposite Yitzhak Shamir.
Therefore, Netanyahu needs to share with Obama how he envisions a two-state solution, and a plausible strategy to attain it. Obama feels he has this with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, even if Israelis remain skeptical.
Some believe Netanyahu does not have that vision, and that this is the main problem. However, it is also possible that given how politically explosive these issues are in Israel, Netanyahu fears misplaced trust could leak and be exploited by rivals at home.
So if the absence of a shared vision has contributed to a lack of trust, the absence of trust also contributes to a lack of shared vision.
A second set of issues are differences between the two over urgency, and cannot be divorced from the issue of a shared vision. Despite recent comments by U.S. armed forces head Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, senior Administration sources sharply deny Obama only sees the issue of Israel through the prism of how it impacts American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq.
While the Palestinian issue is evocative in the region, there are over a dozen factors driving anti-Americanism in the region. Even if the Palestinian issue was solved, virtually all the layers of anti-Americanism would remain.
Rather, it is unclear if time is on Israel's side. Obama believes he has Israel's best interests at heart because he views the two-state solution as an answer to Israel's demographic challenges. Moreover, Obama sees Hamas rejectionism waiting in the wings in the West Bank in the event the current PA leadership is defeated due to the failure of peace. Finally, while it is hard to find any shred of evidence that the Arab regimes will take any steps against Iran based on progress toward peace, Obama believes movement in the peace process could only be helpful in creating a regional public environment against the regime in Tehran.
A third profound difference in outlooks between Obama and Netanyahu is how they view the relationship between politics and policy.
It seems to be hard for Obama to believe that Netanyahu has domestic political constraints when he has the option of putting forward a set of policies regarding a two-state solution that would enable opposition leader Tzipi Livni to join his government. In other words, Obama sees these constraints by Netanyahu as self-imposed.
Obama believes he knows what it is to act against his own base. He has done so by dispatching 100,000 troops to Afghanistan and staging strikes in Pakistan and Yemen.
Of course, Netanyahu sees it differently, especially given that the Israeli system is not presidential. He sees Obama not giving him political credit as a Likud leader for declaring support for a two-state solution or lifting most West Bank checkpoints.
Given the conceptual divide outlined above, it is hard to be overly optimistic about the basis of a new relationship. Yet neither leader has the luxury of disengagement. Obama and Netanyahu have to find common ground in addressing the massive challenge of Iran's nuclear weapon program, or else the consequences could be disastrous.
Moreover, even some European and Arab diplomats - almost all of whom have traditionally favored pressure on Israel - admit that such friction at the top of U.S.-Israel relations will not translate into progress for peace. They say an insecure Israel will not take risks for peace.
Trust needs to be built, and not as a favor to either leader, but because it is a necessity for anyone who wants to see a more stable Middle East.
The writer directs the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
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Completely Wrong Analysis A very smart journalist Makovsky totally misrepresents the essence of the Israeli-American rift. Staying too long in Washington, Makovsky adopted unknowingly the American style of viewing things through personal level. It is true that Obama has a personality of the Black teenager with the Third World ideology. However, Obama due to his position views as a main evil in the world not the United States, and not Iran or North Korea, but Israel. Obama's pro-Islamic views, his friendship with the preachers Wright and Farrakhan, with the Palestinian radical Halidi, with Jimmy Carter and Zbig Brzezinsky influenced his vicious attacks against the Jewish state. Obama is no friend of Israel. Bibi's psychic paranoia about Iran makes him very vulnerable to Obama's reasoning.
This is pretty pathetic! I am sure Obama will survive... as far as Nyet-tanyahu and Israel are concerned.......
Both have shown surprisingly little backbone but perhaps Bibi is growing one. Lets hope. Obama is an example of the greatest mistake made in American politics. Hopefully the American people will learn from their mistakes and take their government back from this radical Marxist wannabe and impostor.
"The writer directs the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. " WINEP was the brainchild of Steve Rosen, and was created for no other reason than to allow AIPAC to push out propaganda on behalf of the Israel Lobby without it appearing to be coming from AIPAC. Or, in one word: shill.
"While Israel considers Gaza to be no longer occupied (since Sharon`s evacuation in 2005), the rest of the world, including the UN, still considers Gaza as occupied by Israel. To me it seems sensible, since Israel continues to occupy the Gaza airspace and territorial waters, and moves in and out of Gaza at will. But the Israeli Supreme Court did not yet rule on this question, and therefore the Israeli government and IDF can pretend to have Gaza the way they want it." - Logios "logios wants to claim that a blockade is legally equivalent to an occupation." - CJK Did I say that?, Not at all. I think one should be honest and humble on this question. Many renowned international legal experts addressed the question of Gaza occupation and came to their conclusions. Cipora should acknowledge their view, and that it has MAYBE some legal sense. Certainly, a non-lawyer, and one who is unable to connect abstract law to real situations (like Cipora), should not rely on herself to over-rule the vast majority of experts. I expressed the hope that the Israeli Supreme Court should make a ruling on this, so we can be spared the chatter of the Amen Gallery on this important issue.
How can there be trust ? Israel promised to evacuate the illegal outposts and certain settlements YEARS ago (forgot the precise year).They are still there and growing. And "Bibi" mouthed something about a 2-state solution at Bar Ilan?? Yeah, ha, ha, through clenched teeth !!
Israel has done absolutely nothing to show its sincerity in peace talks. In fact, they've done the exact opposite. They've been biting the hand that feeds them for decades, and the latest news about an IDF order concerning the West Bank shows that they're considering committing crimes against Humanity.
Netanyahu, like all right wing Israelis want it all. They are not concerned with a Palestinian state and will work actively against such a thing. Obama wants the long time American position of a Palestinian state in the west bank and Gaza. There is nothing in common between these two viewpoints. Obama has the power to get what he wants. He needs to use it and soon. Israel has created a problem for itself. This problem is not Obamas problem.
if you are forced to rest your case on the flimsy grounds that israel can transfer opponents to gaza from the west bank then you had better give up.that is hardly bed rock argument.
Cuba is not a sovereign state. America blockade hampers Cuba's sovereign power. Cuba cannot do anything that affects America. In fact Cuba is still an "occupied" country, or at least not sovereign. And what about the rest of Latin America...??? Their governments have authority. However, they cannot used their sovereign power because they are under the power of American imperialism which is the real sovereign in the region. Ther are plenty regimes around the world whose governments have authority but cannot exercise sovereignty into their own territory. They don't control their economy, sometimes they dont even control other areas portraying the full expression of sovereignty. Maybe that means that.... WE ARE ALL GAZA NOW....or at least a lot of us.
rivkin and casey reject your thesis. but let us humour you.i assume by "authority" you point to control of air space and sea lanes, and also "the going in and out" of logios. 1 israel controls the air space over lebanon, 2 to a lesser extent it controls the air space over syria. is israel the occupying power in these two nations? as for israeli incursions into gaza these are purely reactive.there would be no incursions without provocations. incursions are of course not limited to israel.gazan incursions include kidnappings. more to come with the help of the moderator.
since logios defers to you best to discuss the matter with you he has resigned from the case the two lawyers see the "occupation" as a myth. they insist that "exercising the functions of government is key"to occupation.that is pure logic. i will reply your post in a moment.
All this US-Israel relationship analysis seem to side step the new equation in the region - given the rise of Iran with which US has to contend with, Israel is of no real use to US. If history is any lead, US will at some point simply ignore Israel and become friends with Iran. This is what Netanyahu senses, this is what is causing the friction in his relationship with Obama.
..as I have said before...If Obama was so anti-israel, the USA would not have participated with Israel with the military defense exercise last Novemeber.
Bibi is a clever person but not intelegent,, He is an expert in tactics, but no strategic outlook at all. On the other hand Obama is an intelegeng person with startegic vision. Big diffrences between the 2. In the long run, strategy and not tactics alwways win.
Only power keeping Fatah alive and preventing West Bank from turning into another Gaza under Hamas, is the Israeli army. West-Bank Arabs face only 2 real options: (a) Hamas rule, (b) Jordan rule. Solutions: (a) Gaza: Under linkage to Egypt or Jordan, turned into Dubai-like indl/comml hub on East Med; (b) West Bank: Parts federated with Jordan, safeguarding security & settlements for Israel, demographics for Arabs, holy sites for both. 2-State Plan doesn't make sense only if you think its aim is Peace; it makes a lot of sense if you realize it is the necessary next step along 1974 PLO Staged Plan to dismantle Israel.
I have read some statements here, claiming Israel does not occupy Gaza. According to international law, Israel does occupy Gaza. For reference, read any report by Amnesty, Human Rights Watch, and other human rights organizations. The Goldstone report also states that Israel occupies Gaza. Why does Israel occupy Gaza? Because it has sealed the border hermetically. It controls what comes in and what goes out. It controls the airspace. It controls the sea, and it controls the movement of people. If you want to claim that there is no occupation of Gaza, you are resorting to the regular propaganda.
Israel is interested in creating demographic advantage and keeping land it has taken in order to achieve that objective. Netanyahu's commitment to a two state solution was not serious and was made only as a publicity move. It has been so riddled with exceptins and understandings not understood by the US or EU that it is nothing but a fiction. Israel did nothing to inspire confidence or trust when it intentionally insulted VP Biden during his recent visit trying to restart talks. That is not someting one does to build trust, but to provoke, to be "davka". Israel has felt that it defines the terms of this problem and the rest of the world should just go along because Israel knows better. The US must simply acquiesce and let Israel do the rest. Obama simply doesnt buy that anymore. He sees through it, that most of what Israel is doing has little to do with security and everything with demography and that Israel's intransigence is threatening the security of the entire region if not world.
..in the last 24 hours, history is being made in real time, and everyone posting here is missing it.... Great news about sanctions on Iran is evolving as we comment and post about our petty points.. An Israeli attack on Iran has been out the question from the beginning; the USA is not going to engage militarily with another Muslim country--sanctions and diplomacy was/is the door to walk through..and it's happening now in D.C. Saudi has promised to make up oil shortages from Iran to China...Russia is fully behind sanctions..and the Iranians will become more isolated.. one big missing piece: Israel needs to realize that their strategic interests align with their arab neighbors on Iran.
"israel is an occupier state without occupation of gaza.even though israel does not occupy gaza it does so in logios`s opinion because it uses gazan air space.though that is a reaction to gazan wars on israel the argument is irrelevant. though gaza has a border with egypt israel is still an occupier. in short the fantasy occupation is israel`s fault" - Multinamus I am afraid you are still confusing the issue. Occupation is a legal status. It is not related to "fault". An occupier could be justified, but the state of occupation requires that he abide by some international laws. Do you get the issue here? Now, countries usually have neighbors, and if they get occupied, they still have neighbors. Do you see why the existence of Egypt as neighbor is irrelevant? Me wonder Incidentally, occupation of the airspace and territorial waters preceded the Hamas take-over of Gaza. It is part of the occupation which was never relinquished. The state of occupation has a LEGAL reasoning. I only brought some obvious indications (which support the legal conclusion). I do not explain the legal reason to you because you do not have a legal mind. A legal mind requires precision, focus, and thoughtfulness. You don't have these qualities. My suggestion: Ask Johnboy to explain the issue to you, he has a good legal mind and likes to discuss such matters. But it is best for you to discover some area which you are really good at. And stick to it!
CJK: "logios wants to claim that a blockade is legally equivalent to an occupation." Nooooo, I don't believe so. I think you will find that the argument is actually pretty much the reverse i.e. an occupying power can not "legally" blockade occupied territory. To do so is manifestly absurd, because the "authority" that is being "blockaded" actually belongs to.... the occupying power. Or, put another way, the entity that is doing the blockading is blockading its own authority. NOTE: If YOU want to argue that Gaza is no longer "occupied territory" then YOU also need to explain to me how the IDF can "legally" transfer a Palestinian **FROM** the West Bank **TO** the Gaza Strip without being in grave violation of Article 49 of GCIV. Good luck with that attempt, Cippie, because I can not see how you can do it.
zv: " 'exercising the function of government' is key.does israel exercise the function of government in gaza?clearly the answer is 'no'." So Obviously Wrong! Article 6 of GCIV says: "however, the Occupying Power shall be bound, for the duration of the occupation, to the extent that such Power exercises the functions of government in such territory," The logic of that sentence insists that you CAN BE an "occupying power" and NOT BE "exercising the functions of govt in such territory". Logic therefore insists that the "exercise of the functions of govt" CAN NOT BE the defining characteristic of an "occupation". In fact - and in law - the defining characteristic is "authority", and the test of who has it is not "the exercise of the functions of govt" but that of "effective control". After all, during WW2 Vidkun Quisling did run the "functions of govt" in Norway, but nobody questioned that it was the Germans who were in "effective control" of the joint.....
logios wants to claim that a blockade is legally equivalent to an occupation. that is not the case. an occupation requires that the occupying power have effective control over the territory and that it substitute its authority for the authority of the previous government. since israel disengaged from gaza, israel does not have effective contro over gaza and israel does not have an administration in gaza. to the contrary, hamas has a de facto government in gaza, charged with all functions of government, including security, intelligence, justice, education, police, marriage. hamas has an army and weapons which are quite sophisticated. indeed, hamas does import goods through tunnels and taxes tunnel owner. hamas has a government with prime minister. israel controls the air and sea space. such control does not amount to occupation. nor is the hamas government a puppet of israel, but an independent one which has chosen to ally with iran, syria and lebanon where it acquires weapons, traini
you wrote that the legal case does not recognise fault.it is only a sterile question of whether there is an occupation of gaza by israel according to the recognised definition of occupation. no man immeresed in the law would take that view. fault is a primary concept in law.israel goes into gaza to stop its citizens being attacked. so its pursuit of defense of it speople cannot be converted into occupation.it reacts only. hamas also goes into israel as it did when it kidnapped gilad shalit.how does that help your case?
david makovsky works closely with the establishment in washington.he is unable to say plainly what the situation truly is. we have a man in the white house who is unable to control his dislike and animosity towards us.
does israel occupy gaza?logios says it does so for the following reasons 1 united nations says so. 2 israel controls gaza sea lanes 3 israel controls gaza air space. 4 and as logios inelegentaly says "israel goes in and out" of gaza at will that in short is the case for the "occupation" the key to answering logios's is the following "exercising the function of government" is key.does israel exercise the function of government in gaza?clearly the answer is "no".
correct. may almighty g-d help us if he is reelected. i agree with all your posts. i also agree with your post on iran--mostly. however, it leaves me very frustrated. i have to log off. shalom.
fighting israel.that is his re-election.he will become more friendly as elections approach but watch out should he be elected for a second term.
obama has not given the middle east much thought.what knowledge he has was given to him by a palestinian friend. please remember this is a man who spent five years in the senate and achieved nothing at all.chris matthews of msnbc said as much.the latter is also extremely sympathetic to obama. obama is all artifice and no substance.
avoid the man as far as is possible.do not visit the white house seeing that obama is unable to keep a civil tongue in his mouth towards us. when necessary send dan meridor and ehud barak.
Michael... tell me, Do the Israeli's allow Arab-Israeli towns (basically palestinian settlements) to expand in Israel proper? Who gave Gaza over only to be continually harrassed by indirect fire? Has the Palestinians or Israeli's given the most land for peace? The Israelis have only taken land during conflicts for which they were attacked first. Obama is a fool and Netanyahu knows it.
obama is very far from being an actor or clown. Obama did spend quite a long time getting to know the people and to inventarise the various stands the parties have and their willingness to move, from health care to banks to ME. Lately he has closed that episode and is now removing that what does not work and does not offer sustainable solutions for all the problems and difficulties of a complex world or stands in the way of it. As Reagan used to say: "You ain't seen nothing yet".
israel cannot trust obama. obama is the most anti-israel president in us history. furthermore, his incompetence is a threat to the world. his time is spent on being an actor on the world stage.
Wasn't a declaration by Netanyahu at the start of his leadership that he declared that Israel is ready for peace negotiations with no preconditions. (That's Israeli speak for all previous agreements with palestinians are null and void). Well welcome to the new day. Obama is only making Bibi stand by his words. Of course words are cheap, that's why Obama wants his words in writing.
President Obama is smarter, moral, ethical, a professor of constitutional law, and foremost, he doesn't lie. It is Nutanyahoo who better mind his manners, and that goes for Danny Ayalon and Yishai also. Do not put Israel on a par with the United States of America. That is obscene. You're a tiny outpost, with nukes. Know your place and behave. Salaam/Shalom
One is a statesman, the other is not. It is very clear that USA interests are diverging from Israël's and so much as to be displayed in many occasions as never bever before. USA have nothing to prove to Israël, the other way round is highly questionable.
"He sees Obama not giving him political credit as a Likud leader for declaring support for a two-state solution or lifting most West Bank checkpoints." Last reports show that the total number of checkpoints and barriers has increased, despite the number removed. And the vision for two states Netanyahu has enumerated provides only an illusion, not a reality of two states. California has more independence and sovereignty that Netanyahu's "vision." On Iran, Netanyahu wants a war, the US doesn't. Capability to make nuclear electricity is not actually manufacturing bombs. Netanyahu needs to change his wants. As to the sanctions, Netanyahu is favoring, they would eliminate all domestic opposition in Iran, just as similar sanctions would do for any Israeli PM, even Netanyahu. Hamas popularity and power in Gaza shows how well Netanyahu's theories work (if they did, Hamas would have fallen). And when Netanyahu throws out all prior agreements, he should not expect anybody's trust.
Obama is a liability to the USA. And these leaders dislike each other viscerally. But the USA and Isarel are much more tha Obama and Netanyahu. 62 years of history prove it definitely. And the history of bothe nations is older and deeper than bothe and their remaining terms.
It's just a game for the Americans and Israelis. The Americans try to deceive the Islamic world that they are pressing Israel to negotiate for a settlement with the Palestinians, and Netanyahu ostensibly resists to preserve his right wing coalition, and ensure the continuation of the occupation and settlement expansion. The reality is that it's just a charade and an exercise in propaganda - the willingness of the US to continue to use its veto to negate any UN resolutions that are construed as against Israel's interests, tells the lie.
Obama has shown himself to be both anti-Israel and a snake oil salesman. No one in his right mind would ever trust a snake oil salesman. No one who want a strong Israel to survive and prosper would ever agree with Obama.
Certainly a key part of trust is that one can believe the other party will honor the promises it makes. This willingness to honor its promises has been glaringly lacking in Israel's dealings with the US.
no peace...Netanyahu and by extension Israel has no vision for peace..pretty obvious even to this WINEP shill
1.Unless Leaders can afford to agree on who God really is, there will never be peace in the Middle East or elsewhere. 2.At the moment, leaders believe they work for God when in fact they work for the devil just like when they thought the earth is flat when in fact it is round. The very opposite. 3.The Moshiach Meal of Five Loaves catches Two Big Fish: The Antichrist and Jesus Christ, The Devil and The One True God. 4.The Five Loaves is a Scientific Formula that provides a Redemption from the real Satan to The One True God in a Passover similar to an earth that is flat to an earth that is round. 5.Marhaba to the hungry multitude.
israeli is the welfare receiving client state....and let me just drive this home....you need us and we dont need you...given all that if bibi cant get along then replace him, until we get it right
Israel will still be around long after Obama is dust.
The antipathy that Obama bears towards Netanyahu predates his presidency. When they met in Israel- Obama as a presidential candidate on a fact finding tour, Netanyahu the opposition leader, Obama read Netanyahu correctly and sensed his opposition to any reasonable settlement, not to mention his nasty personality. Israel's position is clear- it prefers real estate over peace. It broadcasts the world that it 'feels' insecure. It will never feel 'secure' even if it had the entire territory west of the Jordan to itself. For Obama it is difficult to deal with this kind of an illogical and counterproductive mindset. Obama believes in momentum, in moving forward, and Israel just does not fit into his worldview.