Netanyahu's day

Benjamin Netanyahu worked for 10 years to rise from the depths of political defeat back to the prime minister's office. During that time he repeatedly argued that he had the answer to Israel's diplomatic, security and economic problems, and if he would only be given the chance to return to government, he would amazingly outdo his rivals in leadership.

The last election gave Netanyahu the opportunity he sought to lead the country his way. If he misses this one as well, he will be remembered in history by the dubious title of the leader who disappointed twice.

In his speech tonight at Bar-Ilan University, Netanyahu will present his diplomatic path. The timing was forced on him by U.S. President Barack Obama's speech 10 days ago in Cairo. Netanyahu feared that Obama was aiming to placate the Arab and Muslim world at Israel's expense, and decided to respond with a speech of his own.

The dilemma that Obama has placed on Netanyahu's doorstep has been faced by right-wing governments before: How to bridge the gap between their ideology, which negates withdrawal from the occupied territories and favors construction there, and the international demand that Israel withdraw from the land it conquered in 1967, dismantle the settlements and establish a Palestinian state in exchange for recognition by the Arab world and security arrangements.

This time the dilemma is sharper than usual. The Likud Knesset faction is very right wing and its members are pressing Netanyahu to stick to his old principles and confront Obama. In contrast, there is the Iranian threat and Israel's desire for cooperation with the United States and the Arab countries in the face of that threat, the erosion of Israel's diplomatic legitimacy in the context of the diplomatic freeze and the war in Gaza, and the rare opportunity created by the combination of Obama's leadership and the Arab peace initiative.

Netanyahu's choice is whether to rise above short-term political considerations and take a diplomatic initiative that will utilize the opportunities in the region, help neutralize the threats and generate change. If he dares to rebel against the right wing and go with Obama, risking a conflict with his partners, Netanyahu could go down in history as having strengthened Israel's existence in the region. However, if he wraps himself in his fears in an attempt to placate the settlers and their representatives, he will continue to fade from crisis to crisis until he is once again removed from power.