Not only is there insufficient military intelligence to know what's going on, there is also insufficient human intelligence to assess anything. We stick our long and crooked nose into every cloudy issue, and have difficulty seeing the end of it on even a clear day.
Our intelligence community is frequently mistaken, unless it has proven otherwise. Didn't they tell us recently about Hezbollah's victory in Lebanon, which can be compared to the victory of Fatah in the territories in its day?
There are many reasons for this constant mistake, this chain of accidents. The main reason is that those making the assessments, whose perception stems from the reality with which they are familiar, are unfamiliar with any other kind of reality, concepts or people - and that is the intelligence chief we have produced here.
How could the head of the Mossad know that somewhere out there are soccer players who are willing to risk their careers and even their lives for a goal greater than their reputation? After all, he's familiar with the local clods, who have ears but do not hear chauvinistic curses. They are seized by a fear of fans and colleagues; there is no need for a secret police or torture chambers in order to silence them.
And how could he know that there are artists in the world - in Iran, for example - who instead of going to nightclubs and telling stupid jokes, take advantage of their celebrity and demonstrate in the streets?
How could he know that there are strange professors who give up jobs as security consultants and additional incomes, descend from the ivory tower to Revolution Square and mingle with the crowd? And along with them, masses of students for whom tuition is not the main concern, who expose their chests to the firing squads. And female students too, tired of singing melancholy songs in the square and moving lighted candles back and forth; and one student named Neda, who overnight turns into a symbol of struggle as she dies in front of the camera.
And how could the Mossadnik know that here and there one can find soldiers and policemen who would hesitate to obey "black-flag" orders, as reported this week by Roger Cohen in The New York Times, from Tehran; what personal courage, what a journalistic mission. Meir Dagan has never encountered such wayward men in uniform who, guided by their consciences, defy their commanders.
A few days ago, Dagan reported to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee and repeated the prevailing diagnosis - that as far as we here are concerned, there is no difference among the candidates there, they're all the same bad merchandise. And in fact, he is not obligated to know that sometimes there is a small difference between them, which is not always true of local candidates, with whom he is personally familiar, and who all look the same to him - and to us too.
From the viewpoint of those in charge of espionage and prevention, there is no historical perspective - the power of power is what delimits and defines their field of vision. Even if the uprising is soon suppressed, as Dagan predicted and as will certainly happen, nevertheless the government of the ayatollahs has cracked, and can no longer be fixed. An earthquake does not always bring down buildings, sometimes it only shakes the foundations.
Dagan's shadow world is reminiscent of Shari Arison's world of spirits. When there is no information and no wisdom, his assessments also seem like communications with spirits, as though the Mossad trains its people in healing and raising frequencies, in Reiki and Kabbalistic meditation, and other clairvoyant methods necessary for the lost and clueless. It helped Arison; she, as opposed to him, is walking in a "great light."