Let's calm down on Syria and Hezbollah
If Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas are indeed planning a war against Israel, they don't need showcase meetings.
By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Hezbollah Bashar Assad Israel newsMahmoud Ahmadinejad has visited Syria four times, twice during the past year. Bashar Assad has visited Tehran four times since Ahmadinejad came to power in 2005. If reciprocal visits by the presidents of Iran and Syria are cause for panic, let's calm down: the balance between the two has been preserved. Hamas leader Khaled Meshal has also visited Tehran many times, most recently in December, so his meeting with Ahmadinejad last week is not unusual. If Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas are planning a war against Israel, they don't need showcase meetings. But why not panic when you can panic? Why not see every meeting as a threat?
"Winds of war" was the headline Israeli newspapers used to describe these meetings, even though the Israel Defense Forces' intelligence assessment was that no preparations are being made for war. All we need to get that pleasant war sensation is the arrival to the region of the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, or for Hassan Nasrallah to give one of his speeches about Tel Aviv, or for a Christian Lebanese politician to charge for the 100th time that Hezbollah seeks to draw Lebanon into a war, or for Ahmadinejad to return to Damascus and for the umpteenth time say the Zionist entity will disappear. Could anything be clearer proof that we are being pushed toward war, or at least that "something is happening"?
On the face of it, each of the leaders meeting in Damascus last week has his reason for war with Israel. Israel, too, has a reason to go to war against each of them, as a group or individually. But a reason for war is insufficient for war. The fact is, Israel is not going to war against Hezbollah, and Syria is not moving its tanks into the Golan Heights. Armed groups like Hamas and Hezbollah consider the menace they pose a strategic asset - not only against Israel.
Hezbollah is basing its control over Lebanon on that menace, but it realizes that war may destroy its political legitimacy. Hamas, cut off from Egypt and the West Bank, cannot allow itself to suffer a Cast Lead II while it is still trying to recover from the effects of Cast Lead I. Syria can attack Israel, but the price it will have to pay is likely to be much higher than what Hamas or Hezbollah will have to pay.
Moreover, Iran is not very keen for its allies to suffer a severe blow whose political implications will echo clearly in Tehran. As far as Iran is concerned, the threat of war is preferable to actual war. The balance of terror is its most effective restraint against an Israeli attack - a view shared by Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas.
This balance can only be overturned by a peace agreement between Syria and Israel. It will not prevent Iran from going nuclear and will not sever the ties between Syria and Iran or Hezbollah. But it will remove an essential element from this four-pronged threat.
However, it appears that we get along much better with threats than wars or real "operations." We're thrilled when Assad ridicules U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's demand that he distance himself from Iran; proof that the axis of evil exists and the threat is alive and kicking. But when Assad repeatedly calls for the resumption of indirect negotiations with Israel, the list of preconditions is ready: The Golan Heights will not be returned, we will not agree to Turkish mediation, and we demand the dismantling of the Syria-Iran alliance.
When the United States tries to convince us that the talks with the Palestinians may weaken Iran's influence in the region - regardless of whether this assessment is valid - we create new areas of friction with the Palestinians. There is little left of the freeze in settlement construction, and declaring the Cave of the Patriarchs and Rachel's Tomb national heritage sites may lead to a third intifada. The fact that Hamas has not fired Qassam rockets for more than a year is perceived as obvious, but the blockade of the Gaza Strip has continued for more than three and a half years. In Israel's eyes this is something natural that should have no effect on the Palestinians' positions.
Israel cannot honestly talk about external threats when it does not pose an alternative to the public. President Shimon Peres may extend his hand of peace to Syria, but the Israeli government extends its finger in a lewd gesture.
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Lebanon's Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah with Syria's President Bashar al-Assad and Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. |
| Photo by: (Reuters) |
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Thise balance of terror can only be overturned by a complete withdrawal from occupied arab territories in palestine , syria and lebanon. Otherwise the war is inevitable.
You claim "sometimes sight can be the enemy of vision", but if vision is the enemy then... Uhmmm... can you clarify again?
Mr.Barel, the headline in the Israeli newspaper was right. You've got it all wrong. There is more to what meets the eye. The leaders of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah are not peace-seeking gentlemen. Israel better watch out.
Chaim...just listen to yourself. Demonizing other Jews because of differences in opinion. Is tit for tat with your brethren your normal course of action? If you can't act any more mature than a "left winger", why should you be taken any more seriously? Maybe Jews like you are a bigger threat to Israel. You might want to think about that. And of course, i must point something out....I am not a Diaspora Ghetto Jew by choice. I served in the IDF and live abroad in order to be a father. That is the only reason I am not still in Israel.
Once again, Barel shows what can be discovered when rational thought replaces hysterics and emotion. His analysis is right on. Sometimes sight can be the enemy of vision.
YOU LIKE MOST OF THE WESTERN WORLD JUDGE THE MUSLIM WORLD WITH IT'S OWN STANDARDS. WHILE THE MUSLIM WORLD UNDERSTAND THIS JUST TOO WELL AND LEADS THE WESTERN WORLD BY THE NOSE. YOUR LOGIC STEPHEN IS NOT THEIR LOGIC. WAKE UP
Israel will never attack Iran. You know it I know it. Israel relies on the fact that any wars they fight end in weeks. Iran would be fully prepared to fight for years.
...enough to believe that Syria is about to embark on a Holy War with Mr.Nasrallah and the Regime of Tehran, should have their respective heads examined. Syria, seeks help from the West, both financial and technological. Syria, reroutes Hezbollah with weapons, missiles or logistical support, for that is a proven fact. How else would Hezbollah receive so many missiles, if not via the overland route.? Tehran, supplies all these missiles. Tehran s regime is playing with fire, for should another Hezbollah attack occur, not only will Lebanon face widespread devastation, so will the RG and their installations. That is the message, so relayed in Damascus by the United States. Many, may have expected that Pres.Assad will convince those to effectively "Calm Down"! Unfortunately, he may not have enough clout with Mr.Ahmadinejad, who apart from his chronic constipation has a declining economy with a young and restless population who call for a better life and FREEDOM. Good day.
goes off on yet another one. If Iran is purchasing the weapions for the Lebanese Defence Force, all Syria is doing is allowing the delivery of said arms through it's territory. It is not providing military air, it is facilitating it. Therefore he is not giving the finger to anyone and has answered the question truthfully. You see it is not just Israel that can twist the ansswer to questions. Frustrating isn't it?
by Israel would be to provide Lebanon with an air defence system that works As well as banning Israeli passport holders from also holding EU passports.
when it comes to Syria and Hezbollah. It's Israel that is running around screaming the sky is falling, the sky is falling. Probably because the weapons the Lebanese are acquiring are becoming game changers. And if Israel has declared an attack by Hezbollah is an attack by Lebanon. Hezbollah are legitimate representatives of the Lebanese people and therefore their arm forces are part of the Lebanese Armed forces. Which means under International Law they are allowed to have whatever arms they want. It is Israel who has declared Hezbollah as part of the Lebanese government. It is Israel who are threatening it's northern neighbours.
If Syria was indeed preparing to launch missiles on Tel-Aviv, what do you think its agents in Israel would be writing? Read Haaretz and you'll know.
Hezballah and Syria do not have to make many preparations to fire off 45,000 rockest into Israel's cities.It only takes a wrong calculation by one their leaders(RISKS INVOLVED) to start the war of wars in the Middle East.
The extreme Left wing like Zvi Barel is the greatest threat to Israel. The Left wing extremist tell us to pacify Israels enemies with land offers and by burying our head in the sand like ostriches. It is because of the Left wing that Israel has no peace as Arabs take them for fools and their appetite for violence is whet every time a Left winger speaks.
with the longest list of UNSC resolutions against it I guess.
"Assad denied all claims that his regime was providing military aid to terrorists in Iraq, to Hezbollah and Palestinian terror groups." Assad had the temerity to lie to the highest ranking U.S. representative to have visited Syria in years. So, who is giving the finger to whom.
"..Iran uses time to build nuclear weapons" You have information the rest of the world doesn't have? WOW!!! and how Hezbollah and Syria use time to fortify and arm their positions as forward bases for Iranian troops" Ah yes, speculate and you can say anything. "The writer ignores these facts.." They're actually mere speculations on your part, not facts. "That is why this writer is such a jerk, because he presumes by stating a lie that every reader looking at this, will buy into his original, flawed, illogical premise" ..and you expect readers to fall for your spectacular speculative premises?
Instead of israel-turkey-syria trio for peace process, Israel prefered the continuity of hezbollah, syria, Iran trio as counter-balancing. But the idea is correct, if they plan something serious against Israel, they gather silently.
"Israel, too, has a reason to go to war against each of them, as a group or individually" They have something of Israel's? Last I heard, Israel illegally acquired Sovereign Syrian territory. Which, BTW, has never been legally annexed to Israel. They're wiping Israel off the map? http://tinyurl.com/y8ewves/myths-mis-conceptions-propaganda/#who-is-being-wiped-off-the-map Or have they merely repeated some olde predictions about the Zionist regime in illegally annexed territory? A regime even Moshe Dyan's widow says should go? Why, oh why, have you bothered to include these apologetic snipepettes?? Are you, like so many others? Afraid to tear the mask right off?
They need a meeting only to discuss peace options, laugh out loud.
More likely they are planning how to respond to an Israeli attack.
Then peace is actually untenable... Both sides must agree that there exists heritage on the land for both sides soling as religious freedoms are respected and sovereignty unvhanged then what's the issue except anti coxistence
the over arching question this writer ignores is hoe Iran uses time to build nuclear weapons and how Hezbollah and Syria use time to fortify and arm their positions as forward bases for Iranian troops. The writer ignores these facts and by his verbal acts of magic, voila. these exponentially growing threats cease to exist. That is why this writer is such a jerk, because he presumes by stating a lie that every reader looking at this, will buy into his original, flawed, illogical premise.
Zvi indeed we do not have to worry that Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas are in secret (re-)arming and getting ready to go for holocaust 2, but you do not see that don't you? Tens of thousands of rockets have been supplied to Hezbollah which did not care when in 2006 part of Lebanon was flattened nor a Hamas which could have stopped firing rockets into Israel during 2009 but rather sacrificed its people. No Zvi we should believe the Iranians and Syrians care for their own people as Iran did only sacrifice 1 Mio during the Iran Iraq war and Syria is the most humane democracy in the ME or not? Zvi Adolf Hitler was as trustworthy to Chamberlain as are these anti semites in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran. And why are you wrong as they consider a democratic Israel limited by the (international) law (we cannot just whipe of the map Gaza Lebanon or Syria) as weak. Or civilians were not safe during the 2006 war nor during the 2009 actions from rockets and the world was silent so prepare for war
"President Shimon Peres may extend his hand of peace to Syria, but the Israeli government extends its finger in a lewd gesture."
"President Shimon Peres may extend his hand of peace to Syria, but the Israeli government extends its finger in a lewd gesture." Indeed true, which is why I don't understand why it took you so many lines of text to get there. "The fact that Hamas has not fired Qassam rockets for more than a year is perceived as obvious, but the blockade of the Gaza Strip has continued for more than three and a half years. In Israel's eyes this is something natural that should have no effect on the Palestinians' positions." That is also very true i.e. the govt of Israel is giving the Palestinians the finger, and then wondering why the Pals are upset. Indeed, is there ANYONE that this govt of Israel ISN'T giving the bird to??? If there is then it's only because Bibi and Lieberman simply haven't gotten around to them yet.