Lebanon comes full circle back to the Syrian fold
Assad's old fear that Lebanon might make separate peace with Israel is all but gone.
By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Bashar Assad Israel news Middle East peaceWe could not have guessed which would be the first country to make peace with Israel, but we always knew which country would be second: Lebanon. Meanwhile, Egypt signed an agreement, Jordan followed and Palestine signed a deal that collapsed, but either it or Syria will be next. Lebanon was pushed to the bottom of the list.
Whoever doubts this can pull out of the archives the clear-cut statement made by the previous Lebanese prime minister, Fouad Siniora. The man who conducted a bitter duel with Hezbollah, and whose power diminished as a result of the Second Lebanon War, made it very clear that "Lebanon will be the last country that will sign a peace agreement with Israel."
Today, as it marks the fifth anniversary of the murder of prime minister Rafik Hariri, Lebanon comes full circle back into the Syrian fold. In 2005, Lebanese public opinion was what pushed the Syrian troops out of Lebanon. Lebanese politicians and pundits swore then that Syria would never again set foot on Lebanese soil, and Hezbollah faced a terrible dilemma between loyalty to the Lebanese motherland and dependency on Syria. But the Lebanese "order" was restored. The current prime minister, Saad Hariri, the victim's son, has already paid Damascus a visit, embraced Bashar Assad, and Lebanese politics continue to be dictated by Syria and Iran.
This is not some theoretical analysis about developments in a faraway country. Lebanon's southern border poses the most permanent and serious threat to Israel, and peace with Syria is mostly driven by the hope that Damascus will neutralize, on our behalf, this Lebanese threat. A withdrawal from the Golan Heights in exchange for Hezbollah - this is how Israel puts it. We wanted a new order in Lebanon and we got it. If our ambition used to be to sign a peace agreement with Lebanon in order to counter the Syrian threat - now the order has been reversed. Syria is necessary in order to check the Hezbollah missile threat.
Lebanon is an excellent example of how the pages of history are like the pages of a calendar: They are pulled out and fly in the wind along with the opportunities marked on them. The assumption that there will always be a Lebanese leadership that will seek to be close to Israel is similar to the assumption that there will always be a Palestinian leadership that will be forced to sign a peace agreement with Israel. But little Lebanon, lacking in strategic importance, is giving Israel the finger precisely because Mahmoud Abbas decided one day that he is tired of begging, and if Israel is interested in peace with him, tough luck.
Lebanon's position also offers a good view into Israel's new regional standing: It lacks any leverage through which it can force Beirut to sign a peace agreement. If it still holds Lebanese territory, that is insufficient leverage. At most, this would be cause for the continued arming of Hezbollah, or the threat to strike at Israeli targets.
Lebanon is also an example of a country controlled by an organization that dictates its foreign policy, just as Hamas dictates a significant part of the foreign policy of the Palestinian Authority, although it is not a partner in it. Territory in exchange for no fighting, Hezbollah says in the best-case scenario - just as Hamas offers a long-term cease-fire in exchange for withdrawal. No recognition and no negotiations.
This is also the position put forth by Syrian President Assad. In a recent interview with The New Yorker, he made it clear that there are differences between peace agreements. For the Golan Heights he is willing to make peace, which means no fighting and ending the military threat. Peace, normalization, warmth and love, on the other hand, are a different matter. When he started as president, he used to talk of normalization.
If several years ago Assad was the one who feared that Lebanon may make separate peace with Israel and imposed the "joint track" on it, limiting its foreign policy, today that concern is all but gone. Even if he wanted to, Assad would not be able to bring Lebanon to Israel as his dowry; he is faced with Hezbollah and Iran. The only thing remaining for Israel is to wait for the next opportunity, or the one after that, so long as the dream of peace is not stripped from it. Israel, like Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran, is certain that one day something good will happen. All that is needed is patience.
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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri. |
| Photo by: (Reuters) |
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Lebanon is not a country nor has it ever been. It is a loose confederation of tribes with no national feeling. Currently, it is a small sanjak of Iran, equivalent to Delaware being part of the US. Of course there will not be peace with Lebanon, because the "Lebanese" never wanted national responsibilities. When there will be peace with Iran, then the Lebanese will follow orders
Lebanon is not a country nor has it ever been. It is a loose confederation of tribes with no national feeling. Currently, it is a small sanjak of Iran, equivalent to Delaware being part of the US. Of course there will not be peace with Lebanon, because the "Lebanese" never wanted national responsibilities. When there will be peace with Iran, then the Lebanese will follow orders
Lebanon is not a country nor has it ever been. It is a loose confederation of tribes with no national feeling. Currently, it is a small sanjak of Iran, equivalent to Delaware being part of the US. Of course there will not be peace with Lebanon, because the "Lebanese" never wanted national responsibilities. When there will be peace with Iran, then the Lebanese will follow orders
Lebanon is not a country nor has it ever been. It is a loose confederation of tribes with no national feeling. Currently, it is a small sanjak of Iran, equivalent to Delaware being part of the US. Of course there will not be peace with Lebanon, because the "Lebanese" never wanted national responsibilities. When there will be peace with Iran, then the Lebanese will follow orders
Lebanon is not a country nor has it ever been. It is a loose confederation of tribes with no national feeling. Currently, it is a small sanjak of Iran, equivalent to Delaware being part of the US. Of course there will not be peace with Lebanon, because the "Lebanese" never wanted national responsibilities. When there will be peace with Iran, then the Lebanese will follow orders
Lebanon is not a country nor has it ever been. It is a loose confederation of tribes with no national feeling. Currently, it is a small sanjak of Iran, equivalent to Delaware being part of the US. Of course there will not be peace with Lebanon, because the "Lebanese" never wanted national responsibilities. When there will be peace with Iran, then the Lebanese will follow orders
of shia islam to conqure and divide within the region. As my phoensian friend said; in tiney lebanon there is power struggle for the majority, christian milita (disarmed), druzes milita (disarmed), sunni bedouin/arabs (disarmed), Only iranian proxy hizbullah (armed) right underneath the noses of the EU/NATO and the rest of the world. The exsistential threat to the Israelite nation is unquestionablly underserved, why because the world will wait, and as the world has waited the furverios scurry of the illegimate iranian regime snub their noses at world order and drive forward by illegal construction of nuke plants and most of all uranian enrichment. The world is all barke and NO bite. Wake up before its too late!!!
Hizbullah continues to arm because there is no guarantee that under one pretext or another, and there have been many of those going all the way back to before Hizballah was a glint in Nasrallah's eyes, that Israel does not go back for the water or bully Lebanon as it threatens to do every day.The Lebanese army is not well equipped to fight the Israeli army but Hezballh is, can and does. Also, the process of creating Israel resulted in a large number of Palestinians in Lebanon, a factor that is highly destabilising for Lebanon.Why should Lebanon suffer the consequences whilst Israelis enjoy the land they effectively stole (UN and the world agreement notwithstanding)to accomodate the victims of another tragedy perpetrated in Europe.I think many lebanese find more of cultural affinity with Israel than with other Arabs but experience has shown them not to trust the Israelis, so at best those with a friendly disposition to Israelis, will be neutral.
Too lily-livered to stand up against the scum running their state.
Lebanon was better off before when it free. Free of Hezbobos, free of Iran, free of the Syrian dictator.
After getting back your dead soldiers from lebanon in the prisoner swap that Israel said would never happen. Why is Israel continuing to accept billions of dollars worth of weapons courtesy of the American taxpayer? Or is that different? Even in your post you are as a representative of Israel on this talkback you are threatening Lebanon with another war. Whats wrong? don't like the idea that someone else should have access to weapons
Even though we liberated Lebanon, it only came with the existence of Hezbollah. Without Hezbollah, Israel would still be occupying Israel. And if Hezbollah laid down their weapons today, Israel would find or make an excuse to invade Lebanon once again. Do not forget that the Litani River was a part of Israel's official "water sources"
continues to reverberate throughout the region. When Israel tried to flatten Lebanon threatening the Lebanese military if they interfered in Israel's bombing exercises, what did you expect the Lebanese to do? They realised that Syria and Iran were the only countries willing and able to give Lebanon the weapons and equipment and technical know how to defend themselves the next time Israel invaded their country. Israel really is it's own worse enemy, if it thought bombing Lebanon back to the stone age would make Lebanon's civilians and their politicians friends with Israel and enemies with Israel's enemies. Just goes to show just how much Israeli politicians of whatever hue are out of touch with reality.
Isreal organised the assassination of Hariri to try and split Lebanon from Syria. But there are many family ties between Lebanon and Syria and none between Lebanon and Israel. Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government now, too. So with support from Iran and growing support from America (even if only to try and dislodge Iran), Israel had better wise up to the changing landscape. Start paying for the huge damage to the Lebanese infrastructure you caused in the second Lebanese war. As No 4 says above, there is a long catalogue of harm Israel has caused Lebanon. And he didn't mention the hundreds of thousands of refugees still in camps in Lebanon.
to #4; Israel would not bother with Lebanon unless Lebanese (Hizballah) committed terrorist acts against Israel. abnormal states start wars. normal states respond with vigor. if it desired (and it does not) Israel could retaliate with massive strenghth! 'be carefull when you taunt a tiger'!
Why did the Soviets develop the atomic bomb? They felt threatened by the US. They wanted to deter an American attack. Why does Hezbollah rearm? For the Same reason Israel does, deterrence. They want to assure they are not invaded again or bombed into the stone age again with impunity. Why does Israel drop 5 for 1 explosives on Gaza? You guys call it deterrence. Not everybody in the world believes in the same things. Some military powers frighten other people and the other people don't feel assured of benign intent by those with overwhelming firepower, especially once it's been used on them.
US foreign policy shifted away from March 14 and towards Assad, so the former gave up.
So since Hezbollah liberated your country and ended Israeli occupation since 2000, why have Hezbollah continued to rearm? Do you really like an entity in your country with firepower more than the country`s army, and seeks your northern neighbor`s destruction? Until Hamas and Hezbollah gives up the rethoric of destroying Israel, and your leaders not objecting it, there will be future wars. There is no one in Israel that wants Lebanon destroyed or invaded, can you say the same for your country?
Between a peace agreements and Peace, normalization, warmth and love could only be achieved by direct negotiation. Israel says it is ready to negotiate without the precondition that was achieved in the past. It is like punishing a student to go back to his first grade just because he failed his seventh grade. The Camp David peace was supposed to reach the Palestinians and Syria. What happened? The greed of Syria in fighting Israel at the cost of Lebanon misery to regain its land back; the greed of Israel to have the water recourse from the Golan Heights, both Syria and Israel approved Lebanon to be the fighting ground. The worse of the situations is that the silent deal of Syria and Israel is irreverent because Iran established its foothold in Lebanon. Whose fault is this?
would have had the opportunity to negotiate and sign a peace agreement with Israel, independently from Syrian and Iranian influence. Unfortunately, Israel wasted its bombs in targeting and destroying over 100 bridges and economic infrastructure in Lebanon in the summer of 2006; instead, Israel should have targeted Hezbollah infrastructure & weapons caches. Israel had lost the battle, but NOT the war. Think and act clearly!
right, this is after they saw what Israel has doen to Abbas and Palestine. To be with the Arab evil is much more better on the long run.
In my younger years, I believed Lebanon & Israel could easily have normal peaceful relations. As times goes by, I witnessed our southern neighbor repeatedly invaded our country, massacred our children, destroyed our infra structure, planted millions of cluster bombs in our fields, threaten us day after day to flatten our country and send us back to the stone age. I might not agree with hisballa on various matters, but i know that they liberated Lebanese soil from over 20 years of israeli occupation, and freed Lebanese men kidnapped from their own homes to be used by Israel as barganing chips. Hisballa is supported by Iran so what! never an iranian bomb fell over our heads, always American made bombs delivered by Isarelis. Sorry neighbors, we believe in peace, but we don't believe we could make it with tyrans like you, and until things change, we will be ready to defend ourselves any way we know how.
what do u expect,a small country like lebanon need allies,we tried goin on ur side but noooooo,u kept on and still violating our air space,stayed in "our" shebaa farms. israel doesnt want peace ,so to harriri/sanyoura returning back to their old alliance was inevitable
LEBANON WAS LIKE SWISS , UNTIL ARAFAT PUT HIS FEET THERE.THE PLO DESTROYED THE COUNTRY. NOW IRAN & SYRIA ARE THE OWNERS, PREPARING TO TRY TO DESTROY ISRAEL IN 4 FRONTS, MAYBE 6, YOU NEVER KNOW.IT'S TIME TO HAVE BALLS, Mr. PM.
I will be the first to make peace with Israel.