• Published 01:51 06.09.10
  • Latest update 01:51 06.09.10

Land or a nuclear umbrella?

The right way to cope with the Iranian threat is by boosting regional peace, in combination with an American assurance of a nuclear umbrella and an improvement in Israeli deterrence.

By Akiva Eldar Tags: Israel news Middle East peace Iran

On September 13, 1993, my throat was choked with tears at the sight of Yitzhak Rabin shaking hands with Yasser Arafat on the White House lawn, as Bill Clinton's optimistic look encompassed both of them. When the children who were in Tel Aviv day care centers at the time are standing at roadblocks degrading 17-year-old Palestinians with no firsthand experience of the Oslo Accords, it's no wonder that such ceremonies have no chance of getting anywhere near the viewer ratings of "Kochav Nolad," (A Star is Born), Israel's version of "American Idol."

We have learned that itchy trigger fingers can easily succeed handshakes and that new declarations of peace do not necessarily mean new worldviews.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must move a great deal closer to the Palestinian position to reach the point that his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, did with Mahmoud Abbas. The Palestinian Authority president will have to take off the gloves in dealing with his Palestinian rivals in order to wean the Israeli public from its addiction to the idea that there is no partner for peace on the Palestinian side. President Barack Obama must spend his remaining political capital so that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton can submit to Netanyahu and Abbas a document resembling the one her husband presented to Arafat and Ehud Barak a decade ago.

Netanyahu and Obama in Washington, September 1, 2010. Reuters

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington, September 1, 2010.

Photo by: Reuters

It appears we'll have to wait until after our fall holidays, and probably until after the Americans recover from their year-end holiday season, to judge whether the latest initiative has brought the end of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict any closer. It's clear already that the renewal of negotiations has intensified the conflict between Iran and centrist Arab leaders. The verbal blows that Tehran and its allies in Beirut and Gaza are trading with Cairo and Ramallah emphasize the link between the peace process and the Iranian front.

Hamas' latest terror attacks illustrate the panic that has gripped the rejectionists in light of the "danger" that Netanyahu isn't who they thought he was. This is his chance to bring Iran into his equation: land for security. Netanyahu constantly declares that it is Iran that poses an existential threat to Israel. If he is willing to concede part of the homeland at the risk of his father's reproach, why not go for broke? Why settle for security arrangements with a nascent demilitarized Palestinian state when you could wrest concessions to protect Israel from Iran?

Despite the arrogant comments of diplomats and the harsh ones of military figures, Israel can't really stop Iran's nuclear program on its own. An attack on Iran (if it is even possible from the operational standpoint) is expected to cost thousands of Israeli lives, as well as cause a regional conflict in the shadow of a crisis of confidence with the United States. The right way to cope with the Iranian threat is by boosting regional peace, in combination with an American assurance of a nuclear umbrella and an improvement in Israeli deterrence.

The idea of a mutual defense treaty that would grant Israel security guarantees vis-a-vis Iran was first raised by Barak, in a conversation with president Clinton at the 2000 Camp David summit. Bruce Riedel, then a U.S. National Security Council official, wrote recently in the foreign policy journal The National Interest that although Clinton responded favorably to the nuclear umbrella idea, it went nowhere once the peace process hit a dead end. At the summit, Barak also proposed that the United States supply Israel with F-22 jet fighters in order to improve Israel's second-strike capability. That idea, too, died with the peace talks.

Riedel recommends that the Obama administration reexamine these ideas and consider providing Israel with cruise missile and nuclear submarine technology. For that to happen, there must be real progress toward an agreement with the Palestinians, preferably accompanied by progress toward regional peace in accordance with the principles of the Arab League peace initiative.

The man in the White House today is desperate for an accomplishment. In order to succeed where Bill Clinton didn't Obama is prepared to give generously, but even he doesn't hand out umbrellas for free. Land or a nuclear umbrella - that's the choice Israel has to make.

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  • 30. 3 5
    Israel-Palestinian conflict: peace is a good in itself
    • Cipora Julianna Kohn
    • 06.09.10
    • 19:49

    there is no doubt that peace is a good in itself. i only question the possibility of reaching peace anytime in the near future. contrary to the position of the obama admnistration, i firmly believe that iran is a major impediment to peace.

  • 29. 3 3
    Yes, Katusha bases 4km from Natbag, please
    • Smollani Tipesh
    • 06.09.10
    • 18:32

    That will help us deal with the Iranian threat

  • 28. 8 2
    Persian Gulf Oil (U.S. vs Russia/Iran)
    • Jimmy
    • 06.09.10
    • 18:29

    The U.S. did not go to war and spend billions in Kuwait and Iraq and lose thousands of soldiers for nothing by eventually leaving it in Iran's hands. There is no way that the U.S. will allow Iran to threaten the oil fields of Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, etc. which it needs for its crude oil. Behind Iran's drive for dominance of all the Gulf crude oil is Russia and its support for Iran. Russia would like to have the U.S. thrown out of the Persian Gulf so that it can have control and influence over all of the oil there. The U.S. will never let Iran/Russia have total control of the crude oil in the Persian Gulf.

  • 27. 4 6
    Akiva, make peace with your brothers first
    • Gilad144
    • 06.09.10
    • 17:29

    What should be obvious to everyone but what the Left like to assume as something that does not exist, is the religious representation, or should I say lack of, in debates and negotiations. Eldar assumes that his view can be all encompassing and representative of all Israelis. He his willing to give away symbols central to Judaism. STOP, as your brothers are not going to let you do what you think needs to be done. I suggest you start talking to your brothers Eldar. Peace begins at home.

  • 26. 0 4
    America and the Indian Wars and the Middle East
    • anonymous
    • 06.09.10
    • 16:56

    Thank God and bless Obama because this year his attorney general made reparations to the american indians, although a negotiated settlement, for lands taken from them which had oil and other resources. For those with little understanding of american history and the american indians, I recommend reading some books. I was amazed that people in Turkey thought americans were coming into Iraq with a colonial idea of colonizing Iraq with americans. It shows you how much paranoia and misinformation fills the heads of the people in the Middle East. I wish our country had been nicer to the Iraqis and also explained their purpose on being there. It is these people who we depend on for good will and future relations. Yes, unfortunately, even Obama believes in american exceptionalism. However, wars were fought with the Indians for many reasons. They did end up on reservations; there definitely was a clash of cultures. The southwest is different than the northeast. Some land for California and Texas was bought from Mexico; other land acquired through war with Mexico. The bright spot is that the Indians were compensated for their losses recently. There were black spots in history for the american indians; the trail of tears for the Cherokees, the majority of all Indians remaining now live in California on uninhabitable land if I am correct. So compensating the american Indians was long overdue. If you want to compare our mission in the Middle East with our history with the american Indians, I think it is up to our govt. to clarify the situation and reassure the inhabitants of our purpose and mission, and not to mistreat the locals. Nasrallah seems to be another troubled individual, who thinks he is a redskin. Maybe a lot more public relations by the US govt. could reassure him and maybe some more human kindness would help solve the problems there.

  • 25. 17 14
    I agree, but who will protect Iran from Israel?
    • Ibrahim
    • 06.09.10
    • 16:47

    In case you haven't noticed, the zionist neo-con crowd is agitating for a war against Iran.....I wonder who is the bigger threat to who?

  • 24. 6 5
    Umbrella in a Hurricane
    • dave
    • 06.09.10
    • 16:17

    Forget the umbrella; it can come and go. Let the US commit to utterly destroying Iranian nuclear capacity (along with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards) and then there is some basis for taking a risk with the Palestinians.

  • 23. 1 4
  • 22. 3 5
    "an American assurance of a nuclear umbrella". Everybody knows its always very easy to buy insurance, and very hard to get anything from the insurance companies in due time.
    • Israeli
    • 06.09.10
    • 14:42

    Between states there are no assurances. There are only ad-hoc, temporary, interests. If the USA will want to be on our side in the future they'll be, and if it won't be in USA interest to be with us they won't. No flashing of past "assurances treaties" works between nations. Look at South Korea's ship being sunk by North Korea. The "umbrella" was a harsh speech from Sec. Hillary. Like all nations, we can rely only on ourselves. USA lobby in Israel is enormous, much bigger than Jewish lobby in the USA. We should think with our own heads. It is in Iran's current leaders interest to attack Israel in due time. Their leaders will reach the status of immortal Islamic heroes. Iran already suffered millions of casualties in their war with Iraq. Israeli retaliation would be much smaller in civilian casualties, and will boost Iran to a martyr status in the international left media. If Iran does not turn into a democracy, they will attack us. The sooner we deal with Iran, the lass casualties we will endure. The more we wait - the worse it will be.

  • 21. 7 13
    And what did Israel spend all that money on?
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 06.09.10
    • 14:41

    If it was not building a nuclear deterrent force?

  • 20. 10 12
    No peace with zionism
    • Salem
    • 06.09.10
    • 14:26

    Israel wants land and nuclear umbrella. There is no hope at all for a permanent peace in this region of the world, solong zionists dream of great israel is still nesting in their corrupted minds.

  • 19. 13 4
    Nuclear umbrella. You are joking right
    • Ilan
    • 06.09.10
    • 13:19

    The US will use or not use the threat of nuclear retaliation against Iran depending to what is its interests at the time, which is to say. Don't count on them for gestures and certainly don't rely upon them for actions. Does anyone seriously expect the US to risk a nuclear war over Israel? What a sad joke.

  • 18. 3 4
    iran not pa
    • ahmin
    • 06.09.10
    • 12:35

    isreal needs to talk the real power in the region not to talk with itself who is abbas egypt or rest of arab regiems ? signing any treaty with them is a lost of time time has changed, america and the west are collapssing iran is a nuclear state . o

  • 17. 11 11
    Iran has every reason to stir up trouble,by proxy,whether Israel is at peace with the PA or not
    • PETER SM
    • 06.09.10
    • 11:45

    They need the conflict both internally and as part of their desire to dominate the Moslem world & further. They do not need nuclear weapons for that,just continue to bleed Israel using their Shiite friends and Islamist Hamas who do not want peaceful coexistence with any Israeli state,no matter what the borders are, as they keep repeating. The nuclear weapons would be a plus in the hands of one of their proxies.

  • 16. 17 19
    Arafat
    • Cipora Julianna Kohn
    • 06.09.10
    • 10:50

    there were those of us who knew from day one that arafat was a craven, crass liar and a die-hard terrorist. those who supported him have much blood on their conscience.

  • 15. 5 19
    Iran's nuclear weapons program
    • Cipora Julianna Kohn
    • 06.09.10
    • 10:45

    iran's nuclear weapons program has nothing to do with the palestinians or with israel. iran will continue with its quest to develop and acquire nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles to deliver them regardless of any other developments in the world. the obama administration knows this full well. their attempts to link the iranian nuclear issue with the israel-palestinian conflict is a cynical ploy. their offer of a so-called nuclear umbrella to israel is a shocking attempt to blackmail the jewish state. we should not forget that obama, contrary to all previous presidents, has singled out israel in the ntp review. obama is the first president who has demanded that israel sign the ntp. there is no doubt that obama will let iran go nuclear. a nuclear iran is a threat to world peace. a nuclear iran is a serious threat to proliferation. hence, any attempt to put the onus on the jewish state in this matter is not only hypocritical but highly irresponsible.

  • 14. 2 10
    Abdullah Eldar doesn't dare to state openly what he really wants : Granting
    • Absolute Sweden
    • 06.09.10
    • 10:33

    pals the "right of return" . He hides it behind "Bibi must move closer to Olmert's proposals"-which encompassed amitting pals into Israel ,but were rejected because the numbers were deemed insufficient by Abbas. Hiding behind pal human shields Abdullah hopes to survive Iran's attack ,oblivious to the fact the "shields " will finish him off first.

  • 13. 2 10
    There is a surprise
    • Dan
    • 06.09.10
    • 09:32

    When you open the nuclear umbrella, you realize that millions of Palestinian refugees were hidden therein. You just have to wait until the next election for Palestine to stand on Israel's land, without any land stealing! There are problems with peace, Eldar. It is not sufficient to make a handshake and we're done. These has been going for 40 years, no wonder why: unsolvable issues. Better get nuked than lose the only country where Jews are safe. At least we would have tried to defend. As Churchill said, they had to choose between war and dishonor. They chose dishonor. They will have war.

  • 12. 17 9
    Iran is not a threat for anyone
    • dani.a
    • 06.09.10
    • 09:13

    only for Israeli propaganda and her lobby in US.Iran's clerics and Ahmadinejad said many tikmes that Iran doesn't want to attack an other country,doesn't want to get nuclear weapon.Iran agreed that the Saudi plan could be the b asis of peace in ME.The same people who spread the lies who brought the Iraq destruction are now in full gas effort to repeat the idiocy but ,of course,on Americans account.They say that a war will have grave consequences but here their prophetic talents allow them to see what will be if will not be war now,immediately.We have the bad luck of prophets which were and are wrong in every day but are prophets in far future.Bibi,his father,Olmert,Sharon made and will making an unbearable fate for Jewish people.Israel is a pariah state just now it is not need a prophet to see what she will be after an attack on Iran.Pay attention to my caveat.

  • 11. 1 12
  • 10. 7 1
  • 9. 0 3
    Safety in Slavery
    • UsedToPostHere
    • 06.09.10
    • 08:14

    Always calm the animal, before you slit its throat.

  • 8. 7 1
    overstating things...
    • eli
    • 06.09.10
    • 08:14

    palestine is important to all of the muslim world--every single country--poll after poll has shown this. iran is not palestine's "defender". it is no more or less linked to palestine than any other country--yes, even with hamas (which is equally if not moreso funded by egyptian sources than iranian ones). making peace with palestine, even if it does happen, will not stop iran's nuclear program in any way. iran might go after israel in the media, but it has always and will always regard its primary threat as america and its gigantic nuclear arsenal. in the 80s, you might remember, israel backed iran during the iraqi invasion of iran--even after munich, even after skirmishes with iranian-funded militants in lebanon. AMERICA, however, backed saddam. they have not forgotten that. at the end of the day, iran believes that it can handle itself when it comes to israel. with america, no.

  • 7. 2 10
    start small: get Shalit out of Hamas prison in exchange for one Hamas bigwig.
    • KISS
    • 06.09.10
    • 08:01

    Land for peace is dead. There only are peace for peace and war (w conquered land) for war.

  • 6. 7 18
    I do hope Akiva Eldar your tears shed for the famous hand shake was for naught after you learn what Arafat said
    • Chafeeka
    • 06.09.10
    • 07:27

    the world has gone crazy, for Arafat to win a Noble Prize for peace is amazing. Arafat was questioned: Do you feel sometimes that you made a mistake in agreeing to Oslo? Arafat: No... no. Allah's messenger Mohammad accepted the al-Hudaibiya peace treaty and Salah a-Din accepted the peace agreement with Richard the Lion-Hearted." (Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat in a newspaper interview.) What Yasser Arafat was referring to is the permission by Allah to break treaties and agreements made with any enemy since the ten-year pact was broken by Muhammad within two years, when the Islamic forces, having strengthened during the cease-fire, conquered the Koreish. Salah a-Din was a Muslim leader who, after a cease-fire, declared a jihad against the Crusaders and captured Jerusalem. This is the idea and the plan behind the peace accord with Israel the enemy of Allah.

  • 5. 5 6
    akiva the blind
    • judah ben hur
    • 06.09.10
    • 07:12

    Ridiculous notion akiva. Iran is not interested in peace with israel and nuclear umbrellas and containment are COMPLETELY assinine theories as they relate to ahmedinejad and the mad mullahs. Really akiva, are you personally so convinced that it allows you to take this chance with all israelis lives? I call you irresponsible and naive. I think history will look back on you and others of the left as having been completely and dangerously wrong in your handling or Iran. Moreover, it is in fact amoral of you to publicly push for such a policy. You will be judged and you will be responsible.

  • 4. 5 29
    A nuclear Iran
    • Joshua
    • 06.09.10
    • 07:05

    Iran will attack Israel and it has nothing to do Mr.Eldar with Palestinian peace . The Iranian regime is illegal ,Abbas agrees with this ,openly shoots its citizens in the streets of Iran,laughs and mocks sanctions against it and has the measure of a naive USA president .You Eldar have simply assessed the possibility of Iranian nuclear attack on Israel incorrectly,your reasons a peace with Palestinians does not interest them ,but the destruction of Israel does .

    • 3 2
      Iran is evil but not stupid
      • arik
      • 06.09.10
      • 17:17

      There is no chance for Iran to attempt to destroy Israel. It seems that Israel has already a double strike capability. If it is still improved, that means that the shiite state will disappear from the face of earth at any attempt to attack israel.. I can hardly believe that even a nut as Ahmedinajad does not know that. Regarding spoilers such as Hizbalah and Hammas they don't constitute any dramatic threat. Just remember their "great victory" . The real outcome of the Lebanon and Gaza wars is that Hizbalah and Hammas are military undermined despite being rearmed with "useless" missiles. They wont use them because they already know the tag price. The marking of a very clear price tag represents Israel strategic victory which is clearly expressed in the last Time magazine article. Israel is surrounded by enemies that cannot dare to do any harm. That is the reason that Israel economy is thriving and Israelies in T Aviv cannot care less about Gaza and Lebanon. For Israelies the best case scenario is that that the economy and well being of the West bank people and Lebanese people keeps improving . In that scenario, the hands of spoilers are relatively tied. Whatever they attempt ....Israel will respond ( despite Goldstone and despite Iran nuclear capabilities ) with the same strong hand.Iran will hardly react despite their potential atomic capabilities. Despite claiming that they are suicidal, the Iranians are not. They are not stupid.

  • 3. 3 12
    Peace won't change Iran's regime's terrorism and fanatic hatred to Israel.
    • Fortuna Benmayor
    • 06.09.10
    • 06:10

    Don't be foolish. It's good to have peace, yes, but don't become aan American, Midwestern naive idiot. That's for people surrounded by 2500 miles of microwaves, Wendy's and Toys'R'ys, not for thinking people who have been in the Middle East or live in Israel.

    • 7 2
      you're the idiot
      • josh
      • 06.09.10
      • 12:32

      those mid-westeners you deride are the very non-Jeiwsh Americans (ultra-conservative, evangelical) who vigorously support Israel. If you're going to be critical, at least get the basic facts straight.

  • 2. 4 2
  • 1. 36 12
    How Israel should deal with Iran
    • Logios
    • 06.09.10
    • 02:17

    Israel has no realistic military option against Iran (with US disapproval), other than a nuclear strike which is unacceptable before the Iranians have a nuclear weapon and are ready to use it. The distance to Iranian nuclear installation is bigger than what the roundtrip range of the most capable Israeli plane can do without midair refueling. (Where?) The installations are also well dispersed and some locations may be unknown. Here is a completely different alternative for Israel: 1. Make peace with Syria. The Syrians offered it to Sharon and Netanyahu (following Hafez Assad strategic decision to make peace with Barak). Syria at peace will kill Hizballah by depriving them of access to weapons, and get Meshal and other Palestinian rejectionists out of there. Cost: The Golan. 2. Make peace with Lebanon. Papa Assad promised this will follow, and Syria can deliver. No more arms supply to Hizballah, and it will become a political party. 3. Make peace with the Palestinians. Abbas wants it, and Fayyad is establishing a state whether Israel likes it or not. Cost: Practically all the Territories except for some exchanges. 4. Make peace with all Arab states, as per the Saudi plan. 5. Iran, having been pushed out of the region, looks elsewhere to cause trouble. Iraq and Afghanistan will keep them and the US busy. Israel is no longer of central interest to them.