It's not up to them

One week before the Jerusalem municipal election, a slap in the face and a light shaking wouldn't hurt either the candidates or their voters - to both Meir Porush and Nir Barkat, who interminably swear allegiance to a united Jerusalem and Israeli sovereignty over the Temple Mount, and to the public that accepts them with unfathomable seriousness. It must be admitted that these declarations are like a breath of fresh air, after the irresponsible statements of Ehud Olmert on Jerusalem, but nevertheless it is irrelevant to bother with them.

Neither Barkat nor Porush will decide on the future of Jerusalem. It's not in their scope of authority. The city's future could be decided by Tzipi Livni, who apparently has already agreed on its division but is concealing that from the public, or by Benjamin Netanyahu, who promises that he will never negotiate over it. The mayor of Jerusalem has no real influence over government policy regarding such an important issue. Even Teddy Kollek learned that when he failed to prevent successive national governments from building the chain of neighborhoods from Neveh Yaakov to East Talpiot.

The Zionist insights that lead both Porush and Barkat to view the creation of Jewish neighborhoods in Anata (Barkat), Atarot (Porush) and the E-1 area between Ma'aleh Adumim and Jerusalem as essential are irrelevant. The cabinet has already proved that it is the that can both giveth and taketh away.

The hysteria with regard to the ultra-Orthodox is also exaggerated. The proportion of Haredim within Jerusalem's population has not changed in 15 years. This fact conceals another little-known one: Haredim, as well as secular Jerusalemites, are leaving the city. The percentage of the ultra-Orthodox among those who are leaving them the capital is similar to their representation within the city's Jewish population: 30 percent. Overall, 16,000 Jews leave Jerusalem every year. The next mayor will have to stanch that flow among both Haredi and secular Jews.

Had just half of those who left the city in the past decade remained, then the left, which seeks to divide the city and remove from it its Arab neighborhoods, would have needed another excuse besides "the demographic problem." Polls of those who have left the city indicate that the lack of housing and of jobs was behind their decision.

Anyone wanting to deal with this must be able to recruit the government to its side as well as to recruit capital, both private and governmental. Who will be better at this? Porush has the backing of his party vis-a-vis the cabinet, as well as a great deal of experience in government. Barkat, on the other hand, has a good chance of success with private donors, although he would be well advised to present to the public, before the elections, a few heavy hitters who could promise to make large sums available for the (truly) fantastic projects he seeks to promote in Jerusalem.

Porush's Achilles heel is actually on his head: the kippa, and the beard. Take these away and you get a candidate for whom many non-Orthodox Jerusalemites would vote. But Porush, especially his worrisome words to an audience of Belz Hasidim (according to which most Israeli mayors will be Haredim in a few years), must convince residents that when he promises to be the mayor of everyone in the city he also means it, and that after the election we will not get an ultra-Orthodox mayor who is beholden to rabbis and to the Haredi parties.

Porush can only convince his audience of his sincerity if he promises, before the election, to implement a policy of positive discrimination - for example, in the allocation of public space. During Mayor Uri Lupoliansky's term the committee charged with this task allocated the overwhelming majority for the Haredi public, to the distinct disadvantage of other communities. Within his own community Porush must encourage the continuing entry of Haredim into the workforce. Jerusalem, including its ultra-Orthodox, needs this desperately.

Barkat's Achilles heel, in contrast, is his relatively modest record and his lack of experience in national government. In the few days remaining before the November 11 election, Barkat must present to the public not only his plans but also the main figures he intends to appoint to key positions, both elected and administrative.