It is easy for Netanyahu to circumvent Obama
Netanyahu has taken small steps to placate Obama but not do enough to bring Abbas to the table.
By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu Barack Obama Israel news Middle East peaceIt was supposed to be a daunting year for Benjamin Netanyahu, a year of American vision and Arab hope. Washington's outstretched hand to the Islamic world, dialogue with Iran, Israel finding its hands tied, U.S. envoy George Mitchell flying around, "two states for two peoples," talks with Syria - all this crammed into a timetable that didn't leave Israel's prime minister any room to breathe.
And still, this American jitterbug has quickly become a tap dance - a bit of graceful gliding and snazzy clothes, but mostly just a lot of noisy hopping in place. The peace process has not been renewed either with the Palestinians or Syria, and dialogue with Iran has been replaced by downgraded American sanctions. And Mitchell, the Mideast envoy? It's been a long time since we heard from him. The only achievements Barack Obama can claim on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are in extorting a declaration from Netanyahu that he is amenable to the two-state vision and a temporary and limited suspension of settlement construction.
Nonetheless, without even noticing, we have entered the freeze's second month, and in less than nine months this perilous situation will pass us by. It looks as if Netanyahu will blithely clear this hurdle put up by the U.S. president without breaking a sweat. From the grand vision of a year ago only fragments remain within reach, fragments not even fit to appear on Obama's CV.
Netanyahu has realized that real negotiations are not held between Israel and the Palestinians or Syrians, but between him and Obama. The prime minister cautiously determined the price he was willing to pay to protect relations with Washington, as long as he would not be forced to relinquish his ideology. This loss of a battle is minuscule compared to Netanyahu's major victory in the war. So far, it seems, Obama has fallen for the trick - he may have defeated Netanyahu, but not his policies.
It was no small gamble. Had Obama stuck to his original plan and convinced even some Arab states to take symbolic steps toward normalizing relations with Israel, had he persuaded Mahmoud Abbas that the freeze (even if limited) would offer the Palestinian president a ladder to let him climb down from the tree he finds himself up and return to peace talks, Netanyahu would have been forced to negotiate on the core issues. But Obama chose to focus on Netanyahu rather than a diplomatic target.
It was fascinating to see what Abbas himself wrote about the settlement freeze. When asked in an interview last week with the Arabic daily Asharq Al-Awsat how he ended up in the tree, Abbas replied, "Obama laid down the condition of halting the settlements completely. What could I say to him? Should I say this is too much?" The Palestinian president, it appears, "blames" his American counterpart for landing him in this diplomatic predicament.
Abbas even asked for only a six-month construction suspension, without Israel even declaring as much in public. Netanyahu, by contrast, understood he only needed to take small steps, the kind that would placate Obama but not be enough to bring Abbas to the table. Now all that's left to Netanyahu is to get through the less than nine months remaining in the freeze, after which no one will pressure Israel to suspend settlement building. After all, Israel will say we tried, we agreed and we made concessions; there simply isn't a partner.
Syria was supposed to be the other victory in the Obama program. The beginning was auspicious - the visits to Damascus by top U.S. officials, including Mitchell, seemed to represent a full turnaround from the George W. Bush era. Indirect dialogue with Turkish mediation won American approval, and it seemed that just a small push was needed for Israeli and Syrian delegates to sit at the same table.
But a withdrawal from the Golan Heights? Not on Netanyahu's watch. As in the Palestinian case, Netanyahu singled out the "real" enemy, the one who would distance him from the "real" threat - negotiations. This time it was Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whom Netanyahu claims is no longer fit to serve as an intermediary. Syria insists that Turkey remain the mediator, or that it receive at least one more round to try. And what about the Americans? Will the Obama vision somehow be diminished if he invites Netanyahu and Syrian President Bashar Assad to Washington?
It's true, not even a year has passed since Obama entered the White House, but the rules have already been set. Circumventing Obama is no longer such a complex act. For a reasonable price, Washington can be sedated and all sides can buy themselves an everlasting conflict.
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...to act in a responsible way and start to make peace. At least three and maybe seven more years of working the Israeli-palestinians peace and the greater arab-israeli peace. Netanyahu doesn't know how to say no that many times and ways. Beware of the taxpayers in America, they are starting a revolt that could hurt.
Brod (#19) stated,"Israel can turn to Congress and the American people who will impeach Obama without hesitancy." You have got to be kidding! Obama HAS been pressuring Israel and Israel has been bowing to his pressure, just as they did to Bush and the rest of the US presidents. 'Impeach Obama"? For what charge? Contrary to what they may tell the pollsters, most people are not too concerned about Israel, when it comes right down to it. If they were, why has Israel removed all the security barriers; why is Israel, under pressure from the US, now in discussion to give away Jerusalem, the Golan, and Judah and Samaria? The US is creating a terrorist army and no one in the US is too concerned about it; there is no major outcry.
It is time Bare'l stops putting Obama on the pedestal as if he is king of Israel or Israel is a colony of America. The fact is Israel is a sovereign nation and Obama is not king of Israel. Israel can say NO to Obama and there is nothing Obama can do about it. Should he bully Israel, Israel can turn to Congress and the American people who will impeach Obama without hesitancy. It is time Obama stops thinking he is king of Israel. He won't even be reelected President in 2012 if he survives an impeachment along the way should he continue to cow to Islam and play god on Israel.
"I don`t believe one Palestinian believes America will ever put enough pressure on Israel to effect any change whatsoever." I hate to admit it, but your Palestinian is probably right. Only the USA could proffer peace and laurels with the right hand while making guns and war with the left and keep a straight face. The military-industrial complex absorbs tax money like a sponge, then shovels out $$$ and arms hand over fist to both sides in the conflict to keep the war going. To the rightists over here it is just good business. Damn the whole lot of them! As for American peace lovers, we have only just begun to fight! Yes we can! Yes we will! Ans the devil take the hindmost!
"Obama has lots of ways to get back at Israel." But he can't atgue with Israel for peace with Palestine while the USA fights a war in Afghanistan. His only alternative is to beat Netanyahu with the wet road map noodle again, and again, and yet again. Bark! Bark! Bark!
"What I don`t get is how people of Israel doesn`t see where their leaders are taking them". It is like EGB (#1) says: "If all you have is a hammer, all problems look like nails." A corollary is that all you see is the next nail down the line. No one sees the end of the plank coming until he falls off. Compulsive fixation leads to obesesiion which leads to disaster.
"For a reasonable price, Washington can be sedated and all sides can buy themselves an everlasting conflict." Reasonable price? What reasonable price? No price at all need be paid to sedate Washington! For as long as Washington makes war in Afghanistan, just so long Netanyahu may follow Obama's example and do what he likes to Israel's neighbors. Washington would not dare complain. No one loves a hypocrit. The House of Representaives may stop Netanyahu dead in his tracks anytime they wish by putting a lock on Obama's war chest. So here's to loose purse strings, rightist ideology, booming business, and eternnal conflict! It does beat depression.
What is this criaziness, trying out-fox and out-trick Israel's best ally--the USA and Obama. Netanyahua and Israel must come to grips with Obama's new approach that is supported by more moderate peace seeking Americans. Pro-Israeli readers of this posting, you must look beyond the conservative American Jew who probably voted republican and supported the neo-cons..well there was this election a year ago..and things are different. I know if peace doesn't come..Obama will be the first president in a long time "not to veto" anti-Israel resolutions in the United Nations. That day will arrive and then you can take a long hard look in the mirror upon your behavior towards the USA and Obama.
the above. they do not have a single idea amongst them. all they know is to whine.
and neither has Obama's case for his original birth been heard by the Supreme Court. Can you say 'PREMATURE"? Rushing to conclusions that haven't been determined as of yet? Ah, I know, wishful thinking based on no facts.
We here it in the US are fine, how about you and yours in Iran? It would seem you may get a new administration before we do. Keep that sense of humor, you'll need it.
How to trick the USA. How to trick the world. How to claim that you want peace and negotiations the do whatever it takes to keep them from coming to fruition. A very revealing article.
but it took time! And one more thing, the tapdance regarding the settlement freeze has certainly made the world aware, not only of plight and the values of the settlers, but also the, albeit not-so-covert Israelig policies on the matter, but still a serious demascing as Johnboy put it some time ago.
Another seven years with The One? You must be dreaming. After the 2010 elections he will be a lame duck and 2012 he will be history.
So full of bravado and oblivious to actually how Israel is perceived by most of the world. The world has tried vainly for many years to create peace and a two state solution. Wake up Israel, it is your time that is running out and don't for a minute think you are smarter than the rest of us, especially the Obama administration.
I am not convinced yet. Obama has a lot on its plate. Now the Health bill has gone trough and the music might change. Can BIBI outfox him for another 7 years? I am not so sure.
So what's changed? I don't believe one Palestinian believes America will ever put enough pressure on Israel to effect any change whatsoever. They don't see any improvement in the next decade at least - if ever.
Bibi for all the trouble he has created. When you only have one friend, it is a very poor idea to treat that friend with contempt. Just because Bibi got away with a lot in 2009 is no guarantee that revenge from Obama ten-fold worse for Israel won't happen in 2010. For example, when Israel needs a critical veto in the UN, Obama could invite the entire US team at the UN to lunch in Washington DC, so no US representative is at the UN to voice the veto. Or maybe Obama will introduce a resolution in the UNSC exactly defining Israel's borders with Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Egypt and Palestine - Note that such a resolution would probably pass unanimously. Then what could the settler do? They would officially be living in another country and there would be nothing Israel could do about it. Obama could also ensure that the world considered Jerusalem to be an international city, not belonging to either Israel or Palestine. Obama has lots of ways to get back at Israel.
Of course, it's all Obama's fault. The US didn't really want peace between Palestinians and Israelis to break out. It might hurt our reputation in the Arab world. Netanyahu could never be expected to keep a promise made in writing by a prior Israeli government. What was Obama thinking. Maybe the US should just close its embassies and consulates and admit that the Brits and French were right to snub us at the end of the first World War. We're too young and inexperienced a nation to think we could possible make a difference. Let the Brits do it if anything is to be done. Or let the Israelis just build themselves into the ONE State Likud wants. Likud MKs are already talking about the necessary details, anyway. It's your demographic concern. Why should the US care?
Obama wisely decided to put pressuring Israel on hold until the health care reform bill is passed. He's fighting a difficult battle with congressmen/ Senators from both republicans and democratic party and last thing he needs is the Israel issue getting in the way. He has defined his legacy as bringing healthcare to all Americans and after stabilizing the economy that's what he focused on. If this shows anything, is this man is able to achieve where others - for decades - have failed. Israel and Palestinians have shown inability to move forward and if anybody can put pressure on Israel, that would be Obama. What I don't get is how people of Israel doesn't see where their leaders are taking them. How could anybody believe a mere decade ago that Israeli politicians could be arrested when traveling to Europe, their military is accused by the UN of war crimes, their at their lowest yet in the public opinion in the West and even Western universities are talking about boycotting them?
If all you have is a hammer, all problems look like nails. Netanyahu is a jackhammer, so he thinks that hardball, deceitful policies are the totality of getting along. This seems to be true in Israel, but it will not be so in Europe, which I think will decide the outcome of Israel's conflict in the territories as US credibility is destroyed by Netanyahu. I believe that Obama will have no choice to save face but to disengage from the conflict and leave it to the EU and UN to sort out. Let's see how he does with them.