Israel may have no military option against Iran
Israeli leaders should understand that the attack option isn't really an option - a thousand new fire trucks and even the Iron Dome missile defense system will not provide protection.
By Gideon Levy Tags: Israel news Iran Israel fire Gideon LevyEvery cloud has a silver lining: Maybe lessons will be learned from the fire. Not only fire extinguishers, fire trucks and new planes, but also new thinking, and fire retardants that douse the really big fire.
The home front's weakness should teach us that Israel apparently has no military option. This is a much more fateful lesson than all the fire's other lessons, and it should be dealt with. The apocalyptic descriptions of a missile attack on the home front if Israel attacks Iran or Lebanon appear even more apocalyptic in light of Israel's conduct when handling a medium-sized forest fire. Discussions on our future, therefore, should move to the arena that Israelis favor: the security arena.
Leave aside human rights and the occupation, don't worry about morality and justice, forget about peace as a leftist delusion and ignore the Palestinian problem. The issue is Israel's security interests, perhaps even existential interests.
The next wars will be home-front wars. This time the Israeli home front will be hit in a way we have never experienced. The first Gulf war and the Second Lebanon War were only the movie trailer for what could happen. An attack of thousands of missiles, as predicted by experts, will create a reality Israel will find hard to withstand. It isn't equipped for it, as we saw on the Carmel, and it isn't prepared for it, as we saw in the Lebanon war.
Any Israeli leader, even an adventurist and a former commando, should understand that the attack option is not really an option. It's true that we succeeded in a few bombings in the past, but nothing lasts forever and the Scuds against us won't always be hollow. A thousand new fire trucks and even the Iron Dome missile defense system will not provide protection. You can't build a fortress for every citizen. This leads to the second, unavoidable conclusion, which should penetrate very deeply, not only among diplomats and commanders, but also among the many warmongers among us: the only existential option is integrating into the region (a term coined decades ago by Uri Avnery ).
Let the nationalists, settlers, rejectionists, militarists, security advocates, annexation backers, hawks, rightists, patriots, rabble-rousers and messianics look at what happened on the Carmel and tell us where they want to go with that. Let them explain what options Israel has when it says no to any chance for peace and its home front is so vulnerable. What hope does it have if it continues to live only by its sword, which was once strong and threatening, and is now rusting?
It was the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin who once acknowledged in a private conversation that the main consideration that got him to the Oslo process was the realization of the limits of Israeli power. We've weakened since then, not only because of the threats to the home front, but because of our international standing. If we recognize this and understand that the military option has become unrealistic, except as a deterrent or an act of desperation, we will understand that there is only the diplomatic option, no other, and it is still open to us.
Israel will not be destroyed. Its heavy armaments will be decisive in the next round as well, but apparently with thousands of Israeli dead, tens of thousands on the other side and a resolute global front that will impose a solution on us. The trauma of the Yom Kippur War will look like a midsummer night's dream, even if our complacent society again pretends that it was surprised. Then all Israelis will know that the diplomatic solution - which most Israelis said yes to in every poll before they went on watching "Big Brother" - was for years at their doorstep and the destruction was a destruction of choice.
Let any rightist politician and anyone who criminally wastes diplomatic time know the weight of the fateful responsibility he bears. For decades Israel persevered because of its strength. Now this power has critical limits. Last week a hint of them was sent from the Carmel. It should echo in every living room and ministry.
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Technicians measuring parts of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant in this undated photo. |
| Photo by: AP |
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the iran will bomb palestinians becouse bombs do not know who is Jewish
we do not care whether Israel is strong or weak, we do not pray for its weakness as Jewish people are praying for us, I am just happy that the possibility of a war which kills and destroy life of many innocents is lower. I hope one day both Israel and Iran find better way to speak to each other than blood and fire
iran is too dangerous to be intimidated and provoked , she can harm israel for many years to come and make life unbearable for israelis world-wide . use your smartness israelis and avoid escalatings tensions with iran . israel is no match for iran even if israel has 300 nuclear devices . iranians have the ability to poison and contaminate israel proper in any major war or if iran is attacked with nuclear weapons . so be wise israel if you want to survive in the quick sands of the middle-east .
“The only existential option is integrating into the region (a term coined decades ago by Uri Avnery)” very true! Indeed no nation can live by the sword forever…This reality has to sink in! It is not a delusional idea from wimpy leftists who do not grasp the danger surrounding Israel; it is a fact! Israel cannot survive in the long term without being integrated in its neighborhood…Once this strategic choice is absorbed and embraced by the Israeli public then peace may have a chance! It is true that a lot of those who do not wish success to peace talks on both sides will do everything to sabotage any possible deal, it is true that there are no strong and representative leaders in the other side that Israel can look to reach a workable deal, it is true that Israel is powerful now and does not need to make concessions to a weak and divided “enemy”, (and the list of “it is true that” can go on forever). Having said all of that, Israel must find a way to revive peace by taking small and big steps (e.g. stop playing politics with settlements, “help” Palestinians select strong and representative leaders that they trust and can negotiate on their behalf-[e.g. free up Marwan Albarghouthi], stop the siege on Gaza: Israel must show Palestinians that it really cares about them much more than what their “Arab brothers” who abandoned them…etc). In short, make Palestinians strategic partners to be able to integrate in the region; otherwise no chance! Do not worry about Iran or Hezbollah (make them international issues not Israeli ones), strengthen the internal front by treating Israeli Arabs and Palestinians with full rights and dignity…be creative! Think out of the box! Stop playing short term politics (I am sure Netenyahu will do everything to stay on power!) Don’t focus on the “enemy” Look at the mirror and ask the hard questions…before it is too late!
Israel enjoyed fighting classical wars with inferior armies of corrupt arab regimes. Given the situation and balance of armories, Arab and \palestininas would have tried popular wars. Palestine borders is long and idael for poular resistance. Hamas, and Hezbullah recently have shown the limitation of hightech arms and modern warefares. In 1948 and 1905's, there were muslim brothers inspired Jihadis fighting along Egypt borders and Gaza. Arab regimes did not tolerate these resistances because they would loose powers and reason to be. Israel must seriously prepare for not so bright future.
It is not as if no solutions were available to "prevent another Carmel". It is not an impossible mission to make the required adjustments and purchase the required equipment and implement proper training procedures.
These days it is extremely easy to design and build tens of thousands cheap, reasonably accurate land to land missiles . This is exactly what Iran has done. In addition Iran has made lots of short range, but very deadly anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles. Any IDF attack on Iran will see lots of very expensive and non-replaceable Israeli aircraft end up as clump of metal debris on the desert. The same goes for the US navy and oil transportation. Iran has more than enough missiles to overwhelm their defenses and sink lots of ships, thereby sinking the US ability to fight and the US economy. Iran has check-mated Israel and the ONLY path Israel has is to get the best deal they can TODAY because the deals will only get worse as time goes on. In the near future, the US will be so weak and the Muslims so strong, Israel will be forced to accept a deal that means Israel essentially ceases to exist. So Israelis which is it - give up lots of land, water, cash and apologies for 1947 and everything that came after to get the best deal possible OR continued delusions until everything is lost. And do not lie to yourselves, because those are the ONLY two options. If YOU wait too long, a deal will be forced on Israel that virtually no Israel that is still left in the country will like.
Is Israel the only country that views a nuclear Iran as a real threat? Not according to the Wikileaks. Linking the Iranian threat to the Palestinian issue (peace) is distorting the truth. Hizbillah armed itself with thousands of missles in order to assist the Palestinians in their quest for a state is patently absurd. Listen carefully to what Hamas, Nassralah and Iran say and do not write it off as rhetoric.Are they offering us the proverbial olive branch of peace?
There's no solution with perpetual wars and relying on accelerated measures of sophisticated defense. This will not bring peace to the region. What concerns many of us is that Israel will implode following this type of thinking over the decades, when a resolution can be found by negotiations to bring an end to the conflict. In terms put differently, think of the financial and personal ruin a deplorable Bernie Madoff scheme took the life of thousands of innocents with him. Again, where's the Israeli peace initiative? We've seen the Arab Peace Initiative from 2002, but where's Israel's peace proposal? We have to be honest and state that in fact, an Israeli peace plan never officially materialized.
what if they won't allow you to integrate? Say that rather have you leave the ME voluntarily or have you dead? (Kinder Arabs may accept you as Dhimmis, if you don't mind the periodic progroms). So you have a good idea.but?
The truth is that Israel will not survive much longer on military might. Israel will be "part of the neighborhood" or it will cease to exist. Very simple. Cultivating enemies is a short term strategy.
Mr. Levy should write a weekly column on that topic. Maybe it will help the rest of Israel catch up before it's too late. (The first step is integrating into the land of Israel. That means a state for the indigenous people).
It's you who has to respond, not the hot-headed nationalists, settlers, rejectionists, militarists, security advocates, annexation backers, hawks, rightists, patriots, rabble-rousers and messianics. I'm sorry for the wording, but your notion that peace (whatever definition of it) or "not attacking Iran" will save Israel from Iranian, Hezballah, Syrian or Hamas missiles is imbecile. There just is no other word for it.
US can find enough compromise with Iran. Every thing depends how US and Iran come along. Turkey also have been and could be a good intermediate to teach some diplomacy to uneducated Ahmadinejd. Ahmadinejad ultimately is a nationalist rather than an ideologist. He would behave different from clergies
I just hope the US isn't dragged into the next war
Of which firefighting is only one element of many that will be extremely overtasked. What about contingency plans - for emergency medical services, medical transport, medical and morgue facilities, doctors, police command and control, utilities- and the physical resources to support them...even provisions for emergency food and water. All these are critical for a population to weather, minimize, and survive the impact of a war...or even a natural catastrophe of epic porportion. Issuing gas masks just doesn't hack it. The most pragmatic and promising path toward Israel's security and future prosperity is a comprehensive peace with its neighbors, pretty much along the lines of the Arab peace offer, which would not only provide a unified regional front against its greatest perceived threat, but it would also eventually open avenues of trade and cultural cooperation which would likely bring a blossoming to the Israeli economy. But then, the current Israeli leadership isn't necessarily known for its pragmatism and foresight, so let's just hope they're smart enough not to start any wars.
Mr. Levy asserts that a diplomatic solution has been at Israel's doorstep for years. But Mahmoud Abbas rejected Ehud Olmert's peace offer. And Mahmoud Abbas still insists on the so-called "right of return," which most Israelis see as a back door plan to take over Israel.
So this is just rhetoric, sophistry, on your part. Would Israel give away this bargaining chip ahead of time??! No way! So get real!
If Israel wants to survive, it will have to give up lots of land, water, cash and apologies for 1947 and everything that came after to the Palestinians. Israel has NEVER come anywhere close to offering what is necessary. It has always insisted on humiliating the Arabs as much as possible in every negotiation. Draw up a proposed border map and publish it for everyone to see, today and there will be negotiations. Olmert did NOT document anything is claims he said.
To those who have a childish belief that military power may solve any problem the history of post WW II America is a grim reminder of reality. During that time we fought four major wars, Korea - ended by General Eisenhower as soon as he became President; Vietnam, lost after almost a decade, Iraq, which we are slinking out of now, and Afghanistan which we will soon abandon as lost. In the last three instances were were defeated by forces which were pathetically inferior in monetary and military resources. In each of those cases the cost of winning was far more than the US was willing to pay. The mistake in each case was hubris and blind faith in military power,not as a tool of policy, but as policy. Israel slunk out of Lebanon ten years ago after almost two decades of pernicious self-inflicted bleeding. Israel has now reached the point where every 'war' is a demonstration of shock and awe against feeble forces ending in a strategic defeat because the political cost - casualties - necessary to destroy the enemy is deemed unacceptable BEFORE the war is started. Sane individuals would reason that if the cost of winning was too high to pay, then one should not start the war. True Believers fantasize that the mere act of war will produce victory - painless and glorious victory. "We have met the enemy and he wuz us!" - Pogo Possum.
Whether a Palestinians state would emerge today or not, we are "an ugly blot", a "cancerous stain" that "has to be wiped off the face of the earth". Gideon Levy's musings as well as yours just overlook that fact. I don't think Israel should strike Iran militarily. No way. Yet the abstention doesn't mean Iran will stop its stated goal to destroy our Jewish state. Even Qatar's emir knows and stated it in private. So it shouldn't be so difficult for either Mr. Levy or yourself to figure that out. For memory refreshment, read Hamas' or Hezballah's charters. Or Ahmadinejad's comments on "the Zionist entity" and his denial of the Holocaust as a "myth". There just isn't anything Israel can do rationally, diplomatically, morally, spiritually or else with Iran. Praying, I'm afraid, is as porous a thing as Iron Dome. So let's hear your sincere assessment for once.