Iranian threat to destroy Israel doesn't hold up

Israel may not have threatened to wipe Iran off the map in so many words, but its nuclear deterrent specifically is there to tell other countries that if you push us too far, we will wipe you and your cities off the map. Perhaps a little honesty once in a while?

Avner Cohen is a certified citizen of La-La Land. The state where to be naive, is sanctioned by all of the states citizens. Pray tell, who really cares if Iran does point the gun at Israel with a thick finger on the trigger? Is anyone going to lift a finger and come to Israel's aid if iran strikes? What for , oil rules, and without oil the world's economy goes down the toilet. And why wouldn't Iran strike?

Once Iran has a useless political weapon, will Syria, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi, Egypt & etc be far behind? Qutar has just contracted with the Koreans for the construction of a nuclear plant - (with other considerations such as reprocessing?) Once a large number of countries have "useless political weapons", the chance of usage approaches unity and the existance of Israel, and quite a few other places becomes moot. The above article is not even wrong, its delusional.

http://wp.me/pDB7k-8J#Mahdi Mentions NOTHING about violence.

destroy Israel. If he has, put it up in quotes... BTW 'I'srael 'p'alestinians ? A typo or one of those sticky shift key Hasbara keyboards?

Your figures are the stuff of BNP posters. The 2.75 million figure is higher than any authoritative figure that I have seen. The 6.5% growth rate if based on such a 'high' figure and projected back to a lower than correct figure from some base period would also then be incorrect by a significant margin. Even from your own figures your calculations are wrong.The 7% figure would only affect the ration of the two populations. A 6.5% increase doubles in 11 years not 10. the difference in growth rates between Muslim and non Muslim makes no difference to the absolute number of Muslims. Even accepting your incorrect data, a projection from a figure of 2.75M to 88M takes 55 years not 50. However your figures also do not allow for falls in birth rate which normally occur in immigrant populations as they adapt culturally and economically to some extent at least, in later generations.

Why is it so hard for jews to accept the facts and be fai and humble. Ahmadnejad never said israel will be wiped off the map, he said thier polictal influence will be non-relevant, in perian and this was mis translated to wip odff the map. Anyhow he is nothing and has no say, the persian are more uncomfortable with the arabs then the jews,they have a lot living in Iran no-hassle no discrimination (aske them). if the israel lobby distorts and inflates rhetoric and schemes its intentions thru the uS military then its just doing a injustice to regular jews. Iran probably has the bomb already as do alot of countries that are not admiting it. the onlynone who can save jews from any threat is jews themselves being honest and fair. If the 67 borders were respected and American and British gas & oil compnaies were aloowed to work in iran, we wouldnt be here.

Iran made countless explicit threats to exterminate the Israeli state, backed these up with 80,000 rockets sent to Lebanon, used to bombard israeli civilians (having no military application - too inaccurate). Iran previously orchestrated bloody attacks on Israeli embassy and a local Jewish community center in Argentina in 1994. Now unambiguously obvious that Iran is developing nuclear weapons and missile delivery systems and that Israeli cities are the target. What do you think the Jews of the world would have done to Hitler's Germany in 1938 if we held 400 nuclear warheads then, and knew what we know now - especially the inaction and apathy of the rest of the world? Martyr-obscessed Shiites are not deterred by the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction, and Israel is not going to just sit around waiting to be nuked - or sucker enough to trust the rest of the world to prevent it. Is 65 million dead Iranians the only way to stop their genocidal plans? No viable alternative is apparent.

...right here, and also to higher bodies, but I am not a "public policy scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington", so it went straight into the neant. Indeed, as long that I acted here as an American (for more than 10 years) I was a guru, but immediatly as I became an Israeli had one hell of a time to be listened at...

You need to wake up from your wishful daydream, Avner! If history teaches us anything it's that madmen who threaten genocide, and seek the means to carry it out, should always be taken at their word. Coddling them, and pretending that they don't really mean it, leads to horrors such as the Holocaust. Never again!!!

Hmm. I wonder if the people of Hiroshima would agree with that. Mr Cohen doesn't acknowledge the possibility of a nuclear attack by proxy. Or the "prestige" one gets by having weapons and killing the Jews. If the humans can produce the Holocaust, than murder on any scale is possible. What do you mean by.. a nuclear bomb can't be an operational military weapon? This is all pure fantasy Mr Cohen. If you have no fear at all of nuclear weapons, you're nuts! You don't have to be paranoid, but your reasoning is the other extreme... pure fantasy.

...Therefore, your argument that Iran might not be willing to destroy innocent Palestinians is not a risk that a national government can possibly take. That tunnel MUST be checked out! Regarding Eurabia! It is a combination of Europe and Arabia, hence Eur-abia! Take the UK, where the Muslim population of about 2.75 million is increasing at about 6.5% per annum on average, whilst the non-Muslim population is declining by failing to reproduce at the level of 2.1 per couple. So, the difference between the two populations is widening at about 7% per annum. This gives a time of ten years for the Muslim population to double from 2.75m to 5.5m to 11m to 22m to 44m to 88m over 50 years. Hence Eurabia and hence the pro-semite Geert Wilders. Europe is turning into a northern hemisphere Arabia!

Hi, Silvienne! The most important role of a national government is to protect its citizens from external assault. It is imperative that the Israeli government looks for this tunnel between Iran and Jerusalem (at least to check that it is not there) in case the Shiite ideology allows Palestinians to be killed for the "greater good" of annihilating Israel. In other words, the Israeli government must not make nor act on the assumption, which you have made, that Iran would not nuke Jerusalem because it would, thereby, kill some Palestians. Ahmadinejad believes in the coming of the Hidden Iman, and the folklore around this character is that Islamicists must provoke as much chaos in the world as they can, in order to facilitate his return to the earth. Rubbish, but this is what they believe! Now, to create this global chaos necessitates that some Muslims around the world will have to die to achieve this. Therefore, your argument that Iran would not nuke Jerusalem through a ...

his thinking reminds me of the saying, "a conservative is a liberal who has been mugged by reality." unfortunately, this is a reality that you can't play with or take a chance with.

"Iran can destroy Jerusalem without using a single missile, so that all this hype about missiles and uranium enrichment" Not without killing Palestinians, and Iran won't do that, because that would lose it the support of Arab countries. BTW, where is "Eurabia"? You sign yourself as coming from my own country, England, but I never heard of "Eurabia"...

We should ignore Ahmadinojab's repeated threats to exterminate us - he does not mean it. And even if he did, he is too rational to use it. This is beacuse he knows that his dropping of a bomb on TelAviv, Israeli retaliation will kill millions of Iranian civilians and he really cares about their well being. Peace Now man

It's interesting you claim Ian needs the bomb to intimidate. Isn't that why Israel has the bomb? If it's kosher for you, why not them?

Of course Israelis fear a repeat of '38 but if you live in Europe then you should be fearful too! Because of the low birthrate amongst indigenous Europeans (it's around 1.3 but needs to be 2.1) many if not most European countries will be outvoted by Muslims within 20-30 years. The choice for most Europeans is now between democracy or Sharia. We don't know where you are so further comment is for the most part unnecessary, but if you're from Europe then your time would be better spent on the talkbacks of your host country. Unless you're muslim of course ;-)

What did A'jad really say? Is the devil in the detail?

What a pity... this word is a savage world and you think "everybody is good, everybody love everybody". It remains "Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb". What a pity

If that is the psychology that will prevail, everyone will be blindsided by evil that is in the midst. Not by the people of Iran but by the gov't in that country. One really has to read bible prophecy in order to understand the scheme of things here.

...Let the IDF form a company of military and geological experts to search for this tunnel at a number of different points. Let them enter east Jerusalem and search under temple mount for the exit point of this vastly long tunnel. And, if it isn't there, Israel will not have the regret of not having searched before Jerusalem was vapourised. No, Israel won't exist after that, so I should say that Israelis, who survive, will not have any regrets that they didn't search for this tunnel. This scenario explains why Ahmadinejad can, on the one hand, say that their nuclear developments are not going to attack Israel, and, on the other hand, keep saying that Israel is going to come to the end of its life soon. They will use someone else's nuclear bombs! Not their own! And they will deliver them by tunnel to destroy Israel through the utter destruction of its capital city.

...so that all this hype about missiles and uranium enrichment is a ploy to up the anti and to increase the tension between Jew and non-Jew, especially Islam. A nuclear bomb(s) does not have to be delivered by missile to Jerusalem. Let me put this as a proposition: There is a tunnel running into east Jerusalem all the way under Saudi Arabian territory from Iran. This tunnel exists from Iran and passes under the Persian Gulf. It comes up in the Arab quarter of Jerusalem, and is to be the means whereby suicide bombers carrying purchased nuclear weapons will enter Jerusalem. Iran does not need to enrich uranium nor to build nuclear bombs nor missile carriers. It has already purchased nuclear weapons which are to be carried on the backs of suicide bombers right into the heart of Israel's capital city. This is why Ahmadinejad speaks so confidently about Israel's devastation and total destruction in the near future, The timing is totally in his power. Let the IDF form a compan

them and spread its influence. The Moslem games were just cancelled over the argument of the Persian/Arabian Gulf issue. Israel stands in the way of Persian hegemony in the M.E. How do they intend to remove the Zionists? Ask nicely? or encourage proxy wars and sit back knowing Israel can't touch them because they have nuclear weapons?

Avner Cohen assumes that there is only one way to destroy Israel, namely, by attacking the whole country militarily. Therefore, he says that Ahmadinejad is correct when he says that Iran's nuclear ambitions are not going to be used to destroy Israel. Why not? Because there is another way to destroy Israel, so that nuclear missiles are not used and so that Western powers will not know how to respond in Israel's defence. I am writing this with the hope that someone, just someone out there, will take this seriously. The other way to destroy Israel, that is Israel as a functioning state, which would then be more vulnerable to Hezbollah etc, is to destroy Jerusalem. Jerusalem, being the capital of Israel, cannot be obliterated by nuclear bombs, without Israel dying as a functioning state. Furthermore, Jerusalem possesses the government and civil service etc. Iran can destroy Jerusalem without using a single missile, so that all this hype about missiles and uranium enrichment

"existential" is just how the "hysterical and apocalyptic" wish to see the threat. Avner Cohen, take the dummy from the babies mouth and you will get the same reaction. Pavlov understood this perfectly well.

up to now it seems it is israel who would want to attack iran and destroy its nuclear power stations. iran has been saying to israel, come and we will see what you will do if you dare. but israel's greatest enemy is israel itself. its boldness and defiance and lack of respect towards others, and its vengeaful mentality of killing and killing,

"If the Mahdi does not come, this will mean that the battle of Karbala could be repeated...." "the arrogance of the united states is the main obsticle to the Mahdi's coming." Ahmadinejad also accused the united states of planning and carrying out the terror attacks of nine eleven.(Al Arabiya, 24 February) This speech is not that of a rational person. To the contrary, it is the rantings of a fanatic who believes in armageddon. Iran cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons.

The threat is less from Iran directly than from a weapon given to a surrogate, like Hezbollah. If Israel is attacked by a stateless terror organization with Iranian weapons, what exactly is the return address at which Israel's retaliation is directed? And, without a credible threat of retaliation on the attacker, how is such an attack deterred?

Since # 6 already mentioned Hitler let us return to him. From people who barely survived the war and holocaust I heard so many stories about how they could never even imagine that anything that bad might happen, how they then dismissed Hitler as a loud blabbermouth whose bark is much worse than his bite. Unfortunately we learned the hardest possible way that he meant what he had said. Well then Mr. Cohen and all those that agree with him let me ask you: Where do you get all that trust that Ahmadinejad and other Iranian leaders are just blabbermouths whose bark is etc. Only when you manage to give us some reasons to believe you, will you be more than just simpleton blabbermouths.

,not allowing installation of nukes there ?

The two main threats that an Iranian bomb would present deal with hegonomy. And, regardless of which side would espouse it, a Nixonesque ability to give an opponent pause to pursue a path of conventional warfare or unilateral action, such as if a nation were to bomb the airforce of say, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and so on, as a pre-emptive strike. Of course, no rational nation would do such a thing, But who ever accused Israel of having rational leadership? How bout if an opposing nation had a nuclear option, would that perhaps cause that certain nation to act like a civilized state and a responsible member of the international community? Actions like that, are what a nuclear Iran would take off of the table, for such a nation. THAT, is what Israel fears, and regards as an existential threat. It would be forced to be more, well, civil. Is that really all that bad?? Food for thought...

Who controls the oil supply, controls the world. China is the only threat to america,so america wants to encircle china, and have the OPTION to DENY oil to china, if there is a conflict. America may screw china and selectively cancel the government bonds, so to stop china responding, america wants to be able to DENY the oil supply. This article makes clear the iranian nuke program is a complete RED-HERRING,is of no importance whatsoever, in the same way north korea, is just ignored,because it does not have oil,but has nukes.

in the 30ies and writing "This man is better than his reputation" . And Israelis who'd die before Iran "would be destructed by United States and Israel" after nuking Israel -should be calm now ? Besides ,who knows what the United States would really do ? Perhaps would send Adm.Mullen ,donned in radiation protective suit to "calm Israelis down and urge restraint in relation to Iran" ?

The Iranian aides from Hamas and Hizbollah will do the dirty job to attack Israel. The nukes are to prevent Israel from a retalitatory strike.

In fact doesn't exist.After years of unchained propaganda about Hitler -Ahmadinejad in all media,Israeli or of our friends,the first article which appears and stops the hysteria.Something like this was the campaign to spread the threat of swine flu.This is the way in which the masses of people is manipulated.But if the swine flu hysteria overs,the Iran"existential threat" remains as a poll in US shows that Iran is viewed like existential threat for America by 70%.

Although this line is really gonna hurt: "What would have happened if we had refused to become hysterical and apocalyptic, and had instead remained calm at the existential level, just as the Iranians are calm with regard to us?" A horrid thought, heh? Rather deflating, isn't it, to be told that it's actually YOU who is running around being childish and pointing the finger of blame at a grown-up, and not The Other Way Around.

"Unlike other weapons, the sway of nuclear weapons depends less on the physical characteristics of these weapons and much more on how these weapons are perceived. Nuclear weapons are almost entirely political weapons," - Avner Cohen Indeed. The have only one use in the real world. Nukes ensure that the possessing nation will not be the only loser of the war. Aside from that they are a very expensive, hard to secure and endlessly restrictive weapon. Every nation which believed that possessing nukes would liberate it has discovered it was almost enslaved by them. Israel is not free to 'nuke' Iran. Even though only nuclear weapons could do enough damage to do more than delay any intention of Iran to posses nukes. Is there a credible Iranian threat to Israel? No, and for the same reason there is no credible Israeli threat to Iran. There are real threats and their are boogiemen that guys like Ahmadinejad and Netanyahu use to control their populace.

When I was young, Americans were pounded with visions of Nikita Kruscheshev shouting 'we will bury you.' It was only a decade later when I was learning Russian that I was told the whole statement. Nikita had said 'In the economic struggle we will toss you into the outhouse." Quite a difference. I have asked my friend Mo, who is from Iran (US Citizen now) and hates the Ayatollahs, and he has told me that the language used by Ahmadinijad is far more fanciful than that Israel would be destroyed by Iran. He tells me that it is closer to the idea that Israel will somehow disappear. I wish you could know the sardonic smile which he had when he told me this.

controlls the world" in the light of Shiite Persian imperialism. Thats why they need the bomb,to itimidate! They even cancelled the Moslem games over what to call the Arabian Gulf. The Arabs see it clearly,why are you in denial Adon Avner?

Mr. Cohen's essay could have been written by an Iranian commentator, which is quite sad. It is just as sad to see Ha'aretz publish it. Israel has never threatened to wipe Iran off the map, just as it never denied the assassination of Alī ibn Abī Ṭālib in the mosque of Kufa - the cause of the split off of the Shiites. But the Iranians deny the Holocaust as well as most of biblical history. I assume that Mr. Cohen believes that we must take decisive measures, as costly they might be, to avoid man made catastrophic global warming. The probability of a climatic catastrophe is much, much smaller that an Iranian devastating nuclear attack of Israel. Therefore, Israel is fully justified to take decisive action to prevent it at any cost.

There is some basis to the article in the sense that getting the bomb is more about increasing political prowess than about actually using it, but the idea that Ahmadinejad would be worried about killing Palestinians is a totally unfounded. Ahmadinejad is on record as saying that having a third of Iran destroyed, which includes the people of course, would be a fair price to pay for the destruction of Israel, so why would he care more about the Palestinians than his own people? He wouldn't of course.

This is interesting, but it doesn't address the Iranian theology that encourages them to push the button of history to the cataclysm that will ring their Mahdi forward. And that it is not wise to put ourselves in such a situation in which even the possibility of them having nuclear capability and all that implies even exists. The reality of a 'small' suitcase bomb in the hands of Hisbullah and Hamas will then become all to real a possibility. This article is oviously the work of a scholar safely ensconsed in Washington and not by an Israeli whose children are existentially threatened by this possible reality.

zionist leaders control what the people of the state think and feel and the people are all to ready to repeat whatever non sense the leaders tell them....you are not in 1938, the nazi's are no longer a threat and iran is not even close to the same kind of threat....you will create your national reality out of your fears..a self fulfilling prophecy

If the Israeli government was to take that attitude, it would be deprived of another means to cast Israel as the eternal victim. That lie has won Israel so much it can't give it up. Besides, if Israel didn't have outside enemies to rally the public around it would tear itself apart from the inside.

Food for thought: A holocaust survivor was asked what was one thing he learned from his experience, he answered "When someone says he want to kill you, believe him". Ahmadinejad has countless times threatened he will destroy Israel, why not take him for his word, and take appropriate measures against it? Since when has killing their own people been unnacceptable collateral damage to the arab/persian world? If for an average suicide bomber it makes no difference if he takes some of his own with him why do you think Ahmadinejad cares if palestinians die or even if HE dies along with Israel? Why allow someone who reitorates that they want to kill you over and over again to actually develop a weapon that could potentially do that? -E. Lifschitz