Iranian threat chatter

Hardly a day goes by recently without some Iranian security official threatening Israel. Every opportunity seems appropriate for this. When Iran recently conducted a Shihab-3 missile trial, they made sure it got extensive media coverage - although it has transpired it was not so successful as initially trumpeted.

Officials in Tehran say their missile was intended to counter the Israeli Arrow. This is a strange assertion sine the Arrow is a defensive anti-ballistic missile designed to intercept missiles like the Shihab. The Iranians know the American-Israeli test of an Arrow against a Scud aimed to deter them.

The threats came fast and furious. At first the Iranians warned that their missiles could reach anywhere in Israel, and then threatened to wipe Israel off the face of the earth if it attacked Iran's nuclear installations.

Israel did not respond to the rumble of Iranian threats. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is planning to summon those involved in Iranian affairs and we can assume he will warn those assembled not to get caught up in the threat chatter from Tehran. Israel has failed in this respect a few times in the past.

What fired up the Iranians? Perhaps they reached the conclusion that Israel had a "green light" from the United States for some operation against Iran's nuclear installations if other preventive measures failed.

The warning by U.S. National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice that all means are being considered to prevent Iran and North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons did the trick.

If that is what led to the threats against Israel, it means Iran felt more exposed at this stage of the nuclear development.

Diverting the focus to Israel is an attempt to draw attention away from the fact that for the first time Iran, using the Shihab-3, has missiles that can reach NATO member Turkey and most Saudi cities and oil fields.

Some fear of an Israeli response probably does exist in Tehran. Still, it is clear that Iran has decided to take a more daring approach to the international community over the development of its nuclear capability.

This has been evident ever since the conservatives won the elections in Iran and with the soaring price of oil bolstering their confidence. More than anything else, they are apparently banking on America's difficulties in Iraq, as the American involvement with radical Shiite groups in Iraq has increased recently.

The Iranian assessment is that until after the U.S. presidential elections, Washington will not dare to open another military front.

When officials in Tehran hear of President Bush's intentions to bring American forces home, they see it as proof that Washington is not planning another war at present. That is why Tehran is prepared to take risks.

There is an impression that Iran has no fears of any United Nations Security Council action. If its audacity succeeds, Iran will gain another period of unhindered nuclear development.

Even though the Iranians have been caught out in the lies they have been weaving for 18 years, it is possible the ayatollahs' regime in Tehran believes that time is on their side.

The threats against Israel are just one chapter in the Iranian strategy. From Israel's point of view, it is more than a struggle to prevent a fanatic religious regime that calls for the destruction of the Jewish state from obtaining nuclear weapons. That regime is also involved in financing acts of terror against Israel and the establishment of extensive rocket systems by the Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.

Today Israel is not alone in this struggle, and is part of a international front, which although not united also opposes the nuclear arming of Iran. However, Israel still must consider a complicated situation in which it may have to act alone. For this Israel must build up its forces and full deterrent capability.