Iran is regional superpower even without nukes
Tehran is creating a rift between China and the U.S., with Washington arming Taiwan in bid to pressure Beijing.
By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Barack Obama Israel news Iran nuclearWe can say a lot of things about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but we cannot deny his chivalry. "By chance" he ran into his Greek counterpart, George Papandreou, during his visit to Moscow and was quick to warn him that one of the dangers behind Iran's nuclear program is "a Middle Eastern nuclear arms race, where countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt will seek to acquire nuclear weapons." The threat to Greece, Netanyahu hinted, lies in the possibility that Muslim Turkey would acquire nuclear weapons.
Of course, Netanyahu forgot to mention to Papandreou what he already knows - that there are about 90 American-made tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey, part of the NATO arsenal, which no one knows what to do with as Turkey has no aircraft dedicated to this purpose. Saudi Arabia lacks the scientific infrastructure for nuclear capability, and Egypt has for more than 25 years been debating where it will build its first nuclear reactor. A nuclear Middle East is still a distant dream.
Greece appears to be a lot more concerned about its financial crisis than Iran's nuclear weapon, but the beauty of the Israeli-Greek dialogue in the Pushkin Restaurant lies in how far the "Iranian bomb" has come. Here is what this bomb, which does not yet exist, has managed to do: sparked dangerous friction between China and the United States, with Washington selling arms to Taiwan in order to twist China's arm; turned Europe's missile defense program into a hostage, dependent on Russian support for sanctions against Iran; triggered a clash between U.S. President Barack Obama, who does not want sanctions against Iran that are too severe, and Congress, which seeks extensive sanctions; stirred a debate within the U.S. administration between those who think Iran should be considered a player that can contribute to stability in Afghanistan and Iraq, and those who oppose that approach; created a rift between Arab states concerned about Iranian hegemony in the region and those who don't want to be on the same side as Israel against Iran.
Therefore, even before manufacturing a single bomb, Iran has become a regional superpower influencing international policy. To preserve its position as a country around which the world revolves, it does not even need to build a bomb. It is enough for it to unnerve the world over and over by, for example, announcing the gradual enrichment of uranium from 20 percent to 40 percent to 60 percent to 80 percent. Thus it can perpetuate the dilemma faced by Western intelligence services, which are unable to determine whether Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon. In other words, they are still incapable of identifying Iran's interest in developing a nuclear bomb.
Statements made by U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reflect this confusion. She has warned that Iran is on the verge of becoming a military dictatorship, hostage to the Revolutionary Guards. Does this mean the Revolutionary Guards will move toward building a nuclear weapon? After all, it was Mohammad Khatami, the liberal president, who pushed Iran's nuclear program forward, while some veterans of the Revolutionary Guards are in opposition. In any case, is a military dictatorship worse than a radical Islamist dictatorship?
The frightening combination of the Revolutionary Guards, a nuclear program and the Ayatollahs makes Iran look like an irrational country. But if it is not rational, why would sanctions scare it? Will they lead the Iranian public to bring the regime down, or will it find itself stabilized against the Western foe? No one can provide an answer, and anyway such an answer is impossible to come by.
The race for sanctions has become a struggle for superpower prestige with a life of its own and with Iran playing the role of director. Any doubt about imposing sanctions is sacrilege. Nonetheless, there is no choice but to come up with a new strategy that will offer a solution in case Iran does acquire nuclear arms, like several other countries in the region - Pakistan, India, and allegedly also Israel. How will the threat be neutralized then? It's hard to imagine Iran as a candidate for the role of superpower contributing to the resolution of world problems.
Perhaps the effort to formulate sanctions should instead be directed toward finding a way to remove Iran's motivation to use the arms by making it a partner to decision making in the international club of decision makers. After all, this will not be such a revolutionary development: It already plays such a role.
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Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. |
| Photo by: (Reuters) |
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The huffing and puffing about Iran?s nuclear ambitions is a bit artificial. There is agreement in principle between the parties. Iran has signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and says it does not intend to build the bomb. Under the treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. I think it is possible for the U.S. to negotiate a credible verification mechanism. The U.S. cannot force Iran to forego its rights. By issuing threats, the U.S. has tied itself in knots, and enhanced Iran?s importance and influence. The main hurdle to conflict resolution is American stupidity and arrogance. ASAF ALI SHAH Lahore, Pakistan February 26. 2010
It is so nice to read something sober and dispassionate about Iran's nuclear activities. Zvi Bar'el has it right. Sharing with Iran is a much more effective strategy than sanctions. Iran needs development, and that's something the U.S. is well equipped to do. How would they react to a proposal to build them a refinery? It's worth considering. Peter G Cohen, Santa Barbara
Is Iran stupid ! Or only to use it against Israel ? And create a holocaust for Israel & itself ?! "Iran is a regional superpower even without nukes" Ed
Reading your stuff, you'd think that the Bush Administration was competent. In its first term, they epitomized incompetence. In the second term, Bush started to ignore and fire neocons some and hired Gates to start cleaning up the mess the Cheneyites made. Their theory was that Government was Incompetent and they set out to prove it. Things are better now. But Obama still hasn't made the trains run on time. Republicans still think trains are either toys or are too European, too French. And volcano and hurricane monitoring is for girls.
No matter how many times someone screams 'elephant' a mouse is still a mouse. Iran is a power in the Persian Gulf, but it is not a 'super' anything.
"..it plays the world using the ambiguity of its nuclear program which does not actually have to accomplish anything" ARTH "Nuclear Ambiguity", "Constructive Ambiguity", where have we heard this before? Sounds very familiar. Only the most foolish of the Israeli politicians will start a war with Iran. I know Israel has the highest number of fools per capita but I don't think they want suicide. Salaam/Shalom
superspew:"naive article..as if welcoming iran into the circle is going to change anything. have they shown over the last 30 years that they deserve to be among the decision makers." Does Israel deserve to be among the decision makers besides a history of deceit it has shown the world? Hell they can't even assassinate a top Hamas official without the whole world knowing about it.
Rather, it plays the world using the ambiguity of its nuclear program which does not actually have to accomplish anything. The ambiguity is thething which simultaneously frightens the world and protects it from an actual attack or sanctions, because without an actual bomb, an international consensus supporting such military action is absolutely elusive.
naive article..as if welcoming iran into the circle is going to change anything. have they shown over the last 30 years that they deserve to be among the decision makers? are you kidding? waiting for the bomb to be finished, and letting them into the decision making process is a recipe for disaster. Obama is repsonsible for this, and for that matter, so is bush. The NIE report of 2007 was complete political theatre. if israel had the same mentality as the iranians, they would have annihilated their arab enemies decades ago, and they could have, but they DONT. Israel has shown it is responsible, I am not so sure iran would do the same...lol...anyhone here from the UK? France? Spain? netherlands? if iran threatened to wipe ur countries off the map, and was racing towards nukes, what would you do? (yeah yeah, let's hear you now, make more excuses)...
One way or another iran must be deterred from nuclear capacity as a proliferation will occur eventially and nuclear exchanges even miscalculations and accidents occur. There are other large nations that can produce consumer goods central america south america india and africa can be intensively developed..
This was one of the best articles I have read. I totally agree with the author. Instead of isolating Iran the West and ISRAEL should work to bring Iran into the international community. This is how trust is built, this is how cooperation can begin in so many areas which are of concern for all the nations including Israel.
Without nukes Iran can be a regional power with conventional weapons and that only affects its direct neighbors The US can counter that by increasing its presence in the Gulf by better equipping its air bases and keep at least 1 carrier fleet there. That would deter Iran from invading its neighbors if all it had was conventional weapons. They also would not have any political influence abroad because nobody worries than much about a conventional power which can easily be dealt with it they bully their neighbors the way Saddam was in 1991. Only nukes take Iran from a local conventional power to a global power with political influence worldwide and to be a regional superpower Possibly As they have no land borders a nuclear free Iran is only a limited threat to Israel because without nukes Israels can afford to allow a couple of missile to get past its defenses with nukes 1 nuke its all over. NO NUKES = NO GLOBAL POLITICAL INFLUENCE OR MILITARY THREAT
it is much more complicated than you imply. it is a lack of competence on all level. shavua rov, cipoora.
Excellent analysis by Zvi Bar'el. This shows that even clever people have no solutions for the situation with Iran. It's funny, but Tehran has achieve a power status... out of thin air. Out of smoke and bluster of possible intentions to build a nuclear bomb. In the real world... Iran has got insufficient uranium-ore, outmoded facilities and difficulty with the enrichment process. And yet, we are all playing into this Iranian Kabuki dance. It would really be helpful, if western strategists approach that reality first. Instead of searching for solutions that don't readily exist.
Maybe I need to go back and reread the PNAC plan. But if you knock off all counterbalancing powers, it might make the survivor seem like a superpower. Cheney, Bush and the neocons knocked off Saddam and knocked down the Taliban. The current situation must have been intended? Or did they screw up somewhere?
To: Zvi Bar'el I fully agree with your analysis. Let?s get rational and bring Iran to the fold. Frankly the failed policy of threats and sanctions can not and will not move Iran one single inch towards accepting the demands set by USA, Israel and the western powers. Get serious, have real diplomacy, engage Iran without pre-conditions and let go of this stupid language of war. Otherwise, we will be forcing Iran to become a nuclear armed nation since that seems to be the only option Iran has to deter this nerve racking western propaganda.
And should we only then react? No, sir, there's no way we can react by then. Iran is an insane fundamentalist dictatorship. It's like laying off a pistol in front of a psychopath and waiting until he takes it to tell him not to pull the trigger intead of just not trying the experiment. Zvi, don't experiment with our lives. We must stop Iran before it goes out of control.
Since China only cares about access to oil, give China the green light to capture the oil fields of the Gulf, especially Saudi and Iranian fields. This would neutralize both Iran, and Al Qaeda which depends on money from Saudi oil. The Chinese will be grateful and will sell enough of the oil to the West for its needs.
Iran and Al Qaeda are mortal enemies: Sunni-Shiite mushroom clouds would bloom. But AL Qaeda won't need Israel to give them weapons. Nuclear technology becomes more and more accessible. It took the brains of Einstein and others, and a superpower like the US to invent, then later it was possible for scientific and military superpowers like Russia and China, and also powers of the time France and England. Later it became possible for India and Israel too, not long ago it became so much easier that even Pakistan, and then North Korea could obtain one, and even Libya and Syria were close. Soon large organizations and movements will be working on obtaining nuclear weapons. Ql Qaeda won't have to get it from anyone. Somewhere in the Amazon jungle or African desert there are probably teams already starting to work on it. And NeoNazis and groups like the Japanese Aum ShinRikyo who used chemical warfare and others will be not far behind.
Iran is cleverer and subtler than the analysts. It will bring about the collapse of the regime here, but not by the means projected. The bomb will not be dropped on Israeli cities, but rather will be stationed with special Revolutionary Guard troops in Gaza and Lebanon, and on Iranian submarines and destroyers nearby, and on long range missiles in Iran, and the threat of its use will be sufficient to totally deter any Israeli military defense against Hamas and Hezbollah. Slowly Iran and its proxies will strangle and suffocate Israel. No one will invest, olim will not come, anyone with the possibility of living in Europe or US or Australia will leave. Arab citizens of Israel,who are of course Palestinians, will be the power brokers, slowly turning Israel into a binational and then Moslem state, with Arabs, Haredim and elderly Sephardic Jews as residents. Everyone else will have left. The Zionist regime will have been wiped off the map without using any bomb.
Had he not continued to do so, bargaining the sales for Chinese support for Iran sanctions, now China would be on board for them, and Zvi Bar'el wouldn't have written this article.
that,s 4 sure . who can deny this ? all pointers points to this solid fact .IRAN is the master of the ME region . IRAN is strong and powerful without nukes . israel is alittle puppy comparing to IRAN .so keep barking israel .
As an Arab, I clearly understand that only Iran can help rid us of our rotten leaders so we may one day unite as one nation and do away with the concept of the nation state that was imposed upon us by Western Civilization. Long live IRI regional supremacy!!!
Of all the nations in the region, Iran can do America the most hurt and also do them the most help. Israels agenda does not match Americas agenda. At some point in time, America will have to take action against their hostile "partner". The best thing that could be done is to isolate Israel and welcome Iran into the fold. At least Iran can pay their own way and is not dependent upon American money and political support.
As long as the Iranian steel technology and have no science, forge it. Check how many scientific papers has he republic of fanatic religious leader published. Without a foundation it is all theft.
All you cite proves Israel is the superpower. Left to their own devices, none of the countries would act against their own interests as you cite above. It is Israel that's making them do it, not Iran.
the holocaust denying terror state of iran does not belong nor deserves to belong to any international club.
were the west led by competent, decisive leadership, iran would not seem to be a "regional superpower." since the west is being led by confused, weak leadership, iran seems bigger than it is.
Indeed Iran has become a regional super power and that is causing a problem for for pro western Arab countries and their progress has become a detterant for other countries to attack her.
Give Iran a say in the policies in the ME without demanding any responsability in return is what Zvi offers the readers. An utopian thought with dangerous shallowness. Iran which has supported violence and terror. Iran which hold al Qaida suspects but refuses them to be handed over for interogation. Iran which wants Israel destroyed should be rewarded for its terror? Iran which helped blow up US and French soldiers in Lebanon as well as in Iraq. Iran which helped blow up Jewish and Israeli places in Argentia and which kills it own people if they dare to demand democratic rights. This Iran government by a dictator should be rewarded? If Iran only would show peaceful intentions then it would be living in a safe world.
Give Iran a say in the policies in the ME without demanding any responsability in return is what Zvi offers the readers. An utopian thought with dangerous shallowness. Iran which has supported violence and terror. Iran which hold al Qaida suspects but refuses them to be handed over for interogation. Iran which wants Israel destroyed should be rewarded for its terror? Iran which helped blow up US and French soldiers in Lebanon as well as in Iraq. Iran which helped blow up Jewish and Israeli places in Argentia and which kills it own people if they dare to demand democratic rights. This Iran government by a dictator should be rewarded? If Iran only would show peaceful intentions then it would be living in a safe world.
We changed the course of the world in 1979 and we will change it again in the coming years. We will teach people how to stand against the bullying powers like US, UK and Israel.
Very fresh analysis but it completely ignores the fact that Iran, at this stage, is not a very stable country and as such the Iranian Regime will do whatever it takes to create a crisis or even a war in order to stabilize itself.
The Iranian fanatic leadership is wasting its only valuable but depleting resource on an arms race that will leave the country without a prepared transition to much harder economic conditions that are already aflicting the average Iranian. Iran is suffering from lasting dry weather conditions which makes large imports of grains a reccurent need. Even now,while it exports its oil,with inflation at official rate of 25% & rationing of gasoline, the population is not likeky to feel belonging to a superpower whose only international influence is through oil & military threats both of which are of limited duration. In spite of its efforts to win the favor of Sunni Arabs it will remain an isolated country with few true friends.
if Iran is a regional Super power, it is only because Israel has forced it to become so.
It was a good overview of the situation but could you really believe such events could occur from irrationality. One recent example of irrationality was the offer by the West last year. Although the West declared that Iran didn't have the ability to produce 20% uranium, it only took a couple of days. The next step is to produce the fuel plates. The West claims only France and Argentina have the technology. Argentina??? Have they surpassed the rest of the world? Negotiating should usually involve some sort of strategy. If the end goal was to push for sanctions, Iran has faced them since the 50's. They buy lots from the US now and it has a 'total' embargo in place. That's the problem with globalization. Israel really wants to give it to the Iranians, make peace with Palestinians. That'll show em!!!
responsible journalism is gone...completely gone from Haaretz. This article is only the second I've read since Shabbat went out that revealed very poor judgment on the part of Haaretz. Opinions do NOT MATTER in regards to headline stories of a responsible paper or new source. I honestly think that haaretz has reached an all time low. How the heck could this journalist know how many nuclear weapons Turkey has through NATO??? what is reported by the military in any country is not the truth and everyone knows it: its always different. The hear-say journalism here is reckless, nothing short. Along with the title, this journalist has broken all ethics as a journalist and asserted crazy ideas. "Iran is a regional super-power"??? Uh, NOT. Major FAIL. The only reason the journalist might write this is if he was working for the CIA in order to 'scare' people into thinking Iran WAS a super-power which would justify a strike. Who knows with bubble-gum journalism???
Did he just go away?Disappear with his 70 virgins down a well with the 13th imam?Do you know who this guy is we are dealing with ?
A nuke free Middle East Including israel's will be a better place for all. Enough violence.
Israel knows no trouble that is too big to cause