In the land of the bluff

What emerged mostly from the opening of the political season this week was the embarrassing victory of the bluff. The prime minister's voyage of double-talk took over the parliament and nothing there was what it seemed to be. MKs and ministers voted aye while burning to vote nay, and vice versa.

"I was too successful," whispered Shimon Peres when he saw how his aggressive address convinced many in the Labor faction to vote against the prime minister's speech. A leader who has charted a daring course in local history? An opposition that has rediscovered determination? A sense of doom and misery has taken over a political system that for years has been muddling along with conflicting messages, if not downright lies.

Labor voted against the government to increase its chances of joining the government. If it embarrasses Sharon, he'll feel more pressure in sensitive places. Dov Weisglass explained very nicely that Sharon is implementing the disengagement plan to ensure that a final wider peace deal goes to hell.

The most senior of the Likud ministers and their camps meanwhile want to send Sharon to hell. While serving under him they can do that only through political trickery and deception. Benjamin Netanyahu, his eye constantly on the clock, knew he would skip the Likud rebels' caucus on Monday so he wouldn't have to ask them to support the prime minister's speech. And Silvan Shalom's ugly double game is giving a bad name to duplicity.

Once again Golda's comment about the Palestinians comes to mind - Sharon's habitual opponents must be angry at his rivals in the Likud who make them want him to succeed in parliament.

But news of the demise of this government is premature. Precisely because the political system has been smashed, no alternative will satisfy a majority in the Knesset. And in the background of that suspended disintegration, Sharon is supported on the matter of the disengagement by a majority of the public.

Until he brings the plan to a vote there is enough time - and embarrassment - to try to win a majority in the Knesset. He once again draws Shas near, massages United Torah Judaism, flirts with senior Labor politicians. And in his statement to the House, he flattered those who hate him in Yesha.

Yet, none of that will guarantee Sharon a majority on October 25 - and neither will judgment-day polls in an election, or unity with Peres. The only thing he can do, like in a decisive battle in war, is to count on his own potential as a leader. With all his promises of determination to go all the way with disengagement, we have yet to hear from Sahron that he is ready to sacrifice himself in the campaign.

What's the point of elections, when he could be defeated in the most humiliating fashion by Netanyahu and company in the party primaries that precede the national vote? How can he win approval for partnership with Labor leaders? That possibility then keeps those who aspire to unity awake at night with the thrill of the dream, yet their numbers are few and dwindling, and the Likud rebels anyway won't let it happen. What will another temporary zigzag by Ovadia Yosef provide other than a divorce from Shinui?

Sometimes there is strength in weakness. He who has nothing left to lose other than his party chains can make clear they will stick to the fight for disengagement even if it means ending up in the political graveyard. The prime minister has not yet tried that judgment day weapon on the Israeli street, which mostly supports him, nor on a political system that knows better what it doesn't want than what it does.

He might be surprised by the effect of a sharp, incisive declaration that whoever doesn't join him on the march to disengagement can do without him, in a risky election campaign. Simply put, it is time for Sharon to say that he is finished if his efforts fail in two weeks time.

that he resigns if his efforts fail in two weeks time.

We'll see then if the hangman's gallows of the ballot box doesn't sharpen the minds of the Likud rebels. We'll s ee then how Netanyahu and Shalom show up for elections after they slaughter their party leader. Nor will there be any great pickings there for the beaten Labor Party. You wanted to be de Gaulle? Like him, ante up the threat of going back to the Sycamore Farm, if there aren't enough who want you in Jerusalem.