If he dares, it is no dream

This article was written before the ceremony in Washington to launch direct talks and is being published after it, as the people involved are making their way home. But the optimistic writer will not take any risks by asserting that the summit will be considered a success. We will rely for the moment on several signs.

For example, what is the meaning of the fact that this is the first time Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu hasn't take his wife Sara with him, and has denied the photographers her ear-to-ear grin, whereas Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak took along his son, who is his designated heir? Does the latter not mean that Egypt will continue to be a key player in the process? And the same is true of Jordan's King Abdullah, who stopped sulking and decided to be an active party to an agreement.

On the other hand, the sparse contingent Bibi took with him is quite strange when compared to the late prime minister Menachem Begin, who never came to such meetings without the defense minister and advisers who knew how to read a map. For the present, everything is in the mind of one person, namely Bibi, who at the last moment even canceled a consultation with his seven-member inner cabinet.

And why does the event look serious this time? Because of the feverish activity of Defense Minister Ehud Barak, who is appropriating Bibi's initiative in his diplomatic meetings, his interviews and his background talks with the media. Is it a coincidence that he is going out of his way to help Netanyahu? Maybe it's a sign that he understands that if nothing comes of this move, Labor will resign from the government, he will lose the defense portfolio and will have to earn money once again as an ordinary citizen?

Why is there room for optimism in spite of everything? Because of the murderous attack near Kiryat Arba. Because those who were behind this attack are taking the American administration's attempts to implement the idea of two states for two peoples seriously, and are thus trying to sabotage the chances of an agreement. But it's not clear that this bloody tactic can succeed in foiling an agreement on its own.

Martin Indyk, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, recently published an optimistic article about the chances of an agreement. First of all, he wrote, violence in the region has diminished. Second, construction activity in the settlements has decreased due to the decision to freeze it. Third, both sides favor a two-state solution. And fourth, there is not much to negotiate: During the 17 years since the Oslo Accords were signed, all the key problems have been thoroughly discussed.

Indyk's words remind me of a well-known joke about prisoners serving life sentences: They had been in prison so long that instead of repeating the same jokes, they just referred to them by number.

During the peace process with Egypt, the five Israeli correspondents in Washington were allowed to accompany U.S. president Jimmy Carter on a crucial trip - Cairo-Jerusalem-Cairo - in March 1979, before the peace treaty with Egypt was signed. The editor of Haaretz at the time, Gershom Schocken, asked Jerusalem Post correspondent Wolf Blitzer whether the treaty would be signed. Blitzer replied that the president would not have made this journey had he not been sure there would be a signing. And that is what in fact happened.

But U.S. President Barack Obama is made of different stuff. While Carter, Begin and Egyptian president Anwar Sadat were determined leaders, the same cannot be said of the present leadership.

When it comes to peace, Israel has had four leaders who changed the face of reality. Two who finished what they started were David Ben-Gurion, who established the state, and Begin, who made peace with Egypt. Two who didn't complete their work were prime minister Yitzhak Rabin, who signed the Oslo Accords, and prime minister Ariel Sharon, who opted for unilateral steps: He evacuated the Gaza settlements and shelved the dream of Greater Israel. The latter two were abruptly removed from the scene before completing their mission.

But Bibi's job is the most difficult. Why? Because wherever he goes, someone has preceded him. All the problematic subjects have been discussed, from territorial exchanges to security issues. Even the question of Jerusalem has been resolved: Arab neighborhoods for the Palestinians, Jewish neighborhoods for the Jews, and the Holy Basin under international supervision.

Bibi's consent to freeze construction in the territories for 10 months, as well as his statements that if Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas agrees to seclude himself with the prime minister for an intimate discussion, he will discover a partner with whom it is possible to reach a compromise, will have to pass the test of results. It is no coincidence that the summit in Washington was set for 24 days before the construction freeze is due to end and 61 days before the midterm elections in the United States. It's very important to Obama, in his poor situation, to succeed in restarting Israeli-Palestinian peace talks. But it is far more important to us.

And if Netanyahu dares, it is no dream.