Does Israel have a strategy?

What is Israel's strategy for dealing with the anticipated Hamas takeover of the Palestinian Authority? The government has decided that for now, Israel should carry on as if nothing has happened; in other words, as if Mahmoud Abbas - who failed to prevent terror, implement reforms and uphold his part in the road map peace plan - was still in power. Israel will continue to transfer money to the Palestinian Authority; the siege on the Gaza Strip will remain in place; and the West Bank will remain under military rule. The Qassam rockets will continue to land in Israel, and Israel will respond with targeted killings.

The idea behind this interim strategy is that Israel cannot be the cause of a humanitarian disaster in the territories while Abbas remains in office. As for the future, Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has issued a warning that Israel will not cooperate with a Palestinian government that includes Hamas ministers.

This is not a comprehensive strategy, but rather a cautious move designed to win international support against Hamas in the future. For now, Israel is acting as if nothing has happened, as if the political clock on the Palestinian side has stopped. Clearly, however, Hamas will not forgo the opportunity that has come its way. The Palestinian Legislative Council will convene in the near future, and the chairman it elects will be a Hamas man, who will serve as deputy to President Abbas, in the event the latter resigns or retires for some reason or another.

Hamas has yet to decide on the political formula it will adopt without waiving its belligerent ideology. It is examining how to run the daily life of the Palestinian population under its leadership, and it is looking for ways and means to deceive the United States, Europe and other donor countries so that they continue sending money to the PA, without Hamas having to give up its ideology that calls for the destruction of Israel.

Thus, instead of talking about eliminating Israel, Hamas is speaking ambiguously about erasing the results of 1948. The international community has already come up with compromise proposals that come at the expense of Israeli security; for example, the so-called "Cohabitation" proposal, which speaks of a government in which Hamas and Fatah act in unison. This is a trap that will allow Hamas to work behind the scenes without changing. The current development is clearly leading to Hamas control, including control of the Palestinian security services. Instead of the Fatah representatives, Hamas officials will be the inspectors at the Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza.

The Palestinian public is fed up with Fatah and its corruption; but it did not elect former finance minister Salam Fayyad, an honest economist who wants peace, but Hamas, which calls for continuing the war. By the way, one cannot ignore the fact that quite a few Israelis, including former senior defense officials, benefited from that corruption as partners in various projects, like the Jericho casino.

It would be best if a dialogue were to develop between the majority of the Palestinian public, which seeks normalcy, and Hamas. This dialogue will not ensue if Israel continues to send money to the PA as if nothing has happened. Israel must exhibit unflinching determination when it comes to existential affairs, even if the harm done to Palestinians runs deep. To this end, Israel needs international support. The Israeli strategy must lead to a split in Hamas such that the pragmatists in the organization forgo the idea of destroying Israel, just as Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization did in their day.

If Hamas refuses to capitulate and keeps following its same line, Israel will become embroiled in a violent and harsh conflict. If it fails in this conflict, the deterioration will be widespread, and spill over into Jordan too.