Despite everything, an improvement

Despite the unceasing terrorist war, it is now clear there has been an improvement in Israel's strategic position over the past year. The military deployment in the Middle East has changed in our favor, and certain threats that appeared grave in the past are gone. That is also the assessment the Israeli intelligence community presented to Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz after being approved by Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon. But, despite the positive assessment, that does not mean all the dangers are gone. It is possible that some threats, particularly in the realm of terror, if actualized, will surprise Israel.

Three main factors had positive effects on regional strategy. First among them, of course, is the American military presence in Iraq. It's a massive deployment, giving them rapid deployment capabilities. The deployment puts the Americans on the flanks of two countries that Israel considers extremist: Iran and Syria. Prior to that came the toppling of Saddam Hussein's regime. The situation in Iraq is far from a solution, and it is possible the clashes will worsen as the American elections approach. But the American presence in Iraq will be lengthy and even if the president changes, it does not seem the Americans will quickly pull out of Iraq and the region.

The second factor influencing the improved strategic atmosphere for Israel is that there is no Arab military coalition of any kind now facing off against Israel. Even though Egypt continues to improve its military, thanks to U.S. help, and in one area - its navy - it is ahead of Israel, the military balance of power is in Israel's favor.

The third factor has to do with the nuclear issue. It does not appear Iran has given up its ambitions to manufacture nuclear weapons, but it has been cornered in a dispute with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Furthermore, key European countries support the United States on this matter. A year ago, the assessment was that Iran would be near nuclear independence in 2004, but that timetable seems to have been postponed. But, despite that improvement, including Libya withdrawing from its intentions to develop nuclear weapons, there are "black holes" remaining in the matter of non-conventional weaponry. One example is Pakistan's sale of nuclear weapons know-how. Not everything has been revealed and it should come as no surprise if there are surprises in this area.

There has been a worsening of conditions in another military realm - but it should not be considered a strategic threat yet. Iran's Shihab-3 rockets have become operational, which means Iran can now reach Israel and other distant targets in the Middle East. Combined with the missile systems that Iran and Syria set up for Hezbollah in south Lebanon, the threat is more tangible. The other side knows Israel can deal with that threat and set a heavy price for the enemy if the situation worsens.

No change has taken place with regard to the terror threat. Some will call the situation reasonable and acceptable. But the situation should not be summed up by quantifying attacks and how many have been foiled. If, for example, the anarchy in the Palestinian Authority worsens, the terror war will continue and it will be fought with many gangs without any address for serious negotiations. After the unilateral steps, international involvement will apparently step up. The continued terror war creates a vacuum that is pulling in extremist elements like Hezbollah, which already operates inside Israel. At the same time, the terror war, and Israel's responses to it, threaten the stability of the Jordanian regime. That all combines to make the terror war a threat, even though Israel has meanwhile found a way to stand in the breach.