Danger - and opportunity - ahead!
If Israel does not wake up and present the Arab world and its supporters in Europe and the U.S. with a comprehensive diplomatic plan, it will find itself being dragged again into the center of the international boxing ring.
By Moti CristalIsrael is now facing five regional processes, which together necessitate a reassessment of former prime minister Ariel Sharon's policy of opposition to direct and substantive negotiations with Arab countries.
The first and the most dangerous of these is the demographic process that is gradually pushing the area toward a situation in which the Jews will be a minority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. In the absence of sovereignty, security and economic separation between Palestinians and Jews, within a few years Israel will lose either its Jewish identity or its democratic essence. At the same time, the failure of the disengagement plan to create a stable reality in the Gaza Strip is rendering any unilateral alternative irrelevant.
The second most important process is the exacerbation of the Shi'ite-Sunni fault line in the Muslim world, the strategic implications of which are violent political struggles for the identity of weak countries, such as Syria and Lebanon. In this struggle, the Muslim world views Israel, despite its general revulsion at its very existence, as an important tool; the evidence of this is the Saudi initiative, on the one hand, and Iran's opposition to that initiative, on the other.
The third process is taking place in Iraq and it is what will determine the strategic limitations on the use of force in the international arena. The failure of the United States to create, by means of dialogue, a stable system of distribution of political power, and the degeneration of Iraq and the Gulf into regional chaos, will significantly erode the international legitimacy of the use of force as a means for dealing with rogue states. Stability in Iraq would reinforce the wisdom that a combination of military power and regional diplomacy is essential if Iran is to be prevented from obtaining nuclear weaponry.
The fourth inevitable process is the crumbling of both the Palestinian regime and society. In the absence of leadership and in the absence of a clear decision in the inter-Arab struggle, the Palestinian arena will continue to bleed to an extent that does not allow for it to serve as a partner to negotiations, but which is not violent enough to justify international intervention.
The fifth process is the slow replacement of the effective mediation mechanism. As a derivative of the first four processes, the effectiveness of American-Egyptian mediation (which was the basis for the decade of Oslo and Camp David) is declining, as the strength of Saudi Arabia (in the Palestinian arena) and Europe (in the Lebanon-Syria arena) as mediators is beginning to emerge.
In the context of these processes, tactical opportunities are being created. Meetings of the Arab League, regional meetings and international conferences are making it possible for Israel, if it so chooses, to feel the pulse, to exchange ideas and also to influence regional processes of renewal.
In Israel it is still believed that substantive negotiations is a "policy" in and of itself, whereas the rest of the world has already internalized that negotiations are just another tool in the hands of statesmen, and equal in legitimacy to the use of force or economic sanctions. To the extent that Israel does not wake up and present the Arab world and its supporters in Europe and the United States with a comprehensive diplomatic plan - that is, agreements with Syria, Lebanon and the Palestinians, along with the establishment of a stable system of political, security and economic relations with the Arab-Muslim world, it will find itself being dragged again and again into the center of the international boxing ring. Such a plan, for example, could already be presented at the end of the month in Riyadh, by a senior and respected Israeli figure on behalf of the prime minister. This would be a correct move for taking advantage of a tactical opportunity in the complex strategic expanse.
The author is a lecturer on negotiations at Tel Aviv University and the Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya.
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The US will fade fast as a superpower, and the rest of the world has very little sympathy for Israel. Israel needs peace with all her neighbours now. Her old game of always preparing for the next war already looks stupid now that she has stopped winning. When the neighbours all have nukes like Israel it will be a very silly game indeed.
Don't confuse the Bush Administration with the United States. Long after Bush is gone and long before he arrived, there has been solid support from the U.S. for Israel. Also, unmentioned in the article is one truth that the U.S. faces, they are the #1 target of the Jihadist War Against The West. We are smart enough to know that israel stands as an ally in the decades-long war to come.
The sixth process is that the conventional military equation is fundamentally changing to Israel's disadvantage. In the past, Israel relied on two military pillars to strengthen its political hand: conventional forces, and nuclear deterrence. However, the ongoing conflict has spawned and nurtured the cancer of mega-terrorism, and the technological advances and the proliferation of weapons-making know-how, mean that (1) the Israeli army like other conventional armies will fail to neutralize insurgent and terrorist elements, as every military response will aggravate the cancer; and (2) setting aside regional nuclear weapons proliferation, any Israeli nuclear attack will certainly be met by a radioactive (dirty-bomb) response. These are inevitable consequences of the ongoing conflict, and of technological advances that give capabilities of mass destruction to smaller numbers of people radicalized by perceived injustice.
The header should read "Danger - An opportunity ahead!"
the fight for the survival of the jewish democratic state is being fought in israel and washington. the likud/settler camp and bush/cheney camp have the upper hand. in the 60's and 70's the joke was the arabs were the israelis best allies because of their stupidity. i am sad to say the reverse is true now. the disasters in iraq and in lebanon, should be alarms of the dangers that lie ahead and that there is no military solution. avoiding talks is not clever it is quiet stupid and sadly israel may negotiate when it is weak and forced to and for sure that will be the end of the jewish state. there is no thought to what happens if the usa is not going to follow AIPAC ploicy. no thought to the rising powers of china and india and prehaps iran. will they be natural allies of israel or the arab and muslim world? europe is lost because they will not support the occupation behavoir in the territories. when you think and explore the future one has much to fear for the future.
The solution 1. Two states with borders roughly those of the ?67 ?green line?. 2. Within each state (Israel & Palestine) there will exist defined physical areas where the majority population is of the opposite national grouping. This area can be as large as a city (ex. Nazareth) or region (ex. Wadi Ara) or as small as a single village. The boundaries of these areas will be defined primarily according to existing legal zoning definitions. For example, the city of Nazareth has a defined zone; residents as well as property are listed, pay taxes and vote according to those defined zones. Given that the population of Nazareth is majority Arab, this city would then fall under the extraterritorial jurisdiction of Palestine and its citizens would be Palestinian, pay Palestinian taxes and receive Palestinian services. Similarly, the zone defined as Gush Etzion region, forms a distinct unit in terms of population, etc. and would become extraterritorially part of Israel. 3. The exchanges would be the result of negotiations and roughly benefit equally both states. The territorial exchanges, based on population, ownership and security issues might ultimately affect approximately 20% of the land comprising each state. 4. Residents of extraterritorial entities would become, in all things, citizens of the state to which the entity is aligned. There would be exceptions allowed for ?foreign residents? should a member of a national grouping reside in the other groups territory. For example, an Arab, living in Haifa (a majority Jewish city) might choose to request Palestinian citizenship. If agreed upon, that individual would be considered a ?foreign resident? As with all foreign residents, they would pay taxes locally but hold a passport (as well as benefit from all rights given to citizens of )of the country they chose. 5. Most services are provided either by localities (schools, sanitation, etc.) or privately (phones, banks, healthcare, etc.) Those services provided nationally (national insurance, tax collection & allocation, etc.) would become the responsibility of the responsible entity. 6. Sovereignty issues would be resolved on the basis of ?virtual? arrangements. For example, each National Group would define Jerusalem as they see fit with pragmatic issues (road repair, etc.) resolved jointly. Arab residents of Jerusalem would be Palestinian, their property would be subject to Palestinian rules (zoning, etc), taxes paid to and services received from Palestine. Benefits For the Jews: 1. Defuses forever the ?birthrate? differential problem. Palestinian births would increase the Palestinian population without affecting demographics (and economics) within Israel. 2. Jewish settlements would remain under Jewish sovereignty and could grow as long as they remain within previously zoned boundaries. 3. Jewish religious and national symbolism (flag, Anthem, language, access to holy places) would no longer conflict with Arab rights because they too would have a legitimate avenue of expression within the context of Palestinian territory. 4. Socio-economic development based on the cultural norms of the Jewish population. For the Arabs: 1. The creation of a Palestinian state encompassing virtually all Palestinians. 2. Closer approximation to finding a reasonable solution ?the right of return? issue.. 3. Palestinian national, religious and socio-economic independence from perceived foreign ?occupation?, exploitation and discrimination.
It is not like we have not heard/read this crap before - what is so hard for these numnuts to understand ? The Saudi liquidation initiative proves the Arabs STILL will not agree to a permanent Jewish state. Also, the nitwit academic has mothing to say about the Mad Dog on Jihad's recent meeting with the Saudi rulers, or the fact that the Saudis are the world's number one financier of Jew hatred. I think it is a real psychiatric problem - it is well past the time to give this affliction a name - how about Jewish Delusions Syndrome ? I think it is the same mental disorder that German Jews had in the 1930s.
America is losing interest. Oil is only going to become more valuable thus creating more leverage against Israel. And demographics are about to be a real problem. A window of strength and bargaining power is rapidly closing. Israel should understand that time is not on its side. I am here in the US and I see the growing disinterest with Israel's fate.
I would like to praise and to second this article. Peace as soon as possible is the only way for both nations.
There is no point signing agreements that will not be honored. Israel is unstable politically- the PA is chaos. Changes have to be made down-up. Interested paries have to create facts on the ground, and then politics will follow suit. Regarding Iran- unfortunately, only bunker busters will help. Chag Sameach
It is time for Israel and her supporters to WAKE UP to the international reality. Part of this awakening should be the realisation that those who refuse to accept this reality (and live in a religous based fantasy world) harm the chances of Israel surviving.
There is an enormous shift in geo-political power happening right now and the shift is away from Israel's best interest. As the US declines in power and the rest of the world becomes more and more indifferent to the fate of Israel (if not down right unfriendly), Israel has only a short window left to secure its future. If Israel does not sign definitive peace treaties within the next year, it will cease to exist in less than 25 years. That is just how the flow of history goes (check out the fate of previous small groups that tried to defy the larger groups). Israel needs to plan on giving up lots of land, water and cash real soon. It will need to totally destroy the settler movement. Israel is at a cross road today, it can choose eventual death and destruction or long term existence. It had better decide quick before the Arabs get even better weapons and armies and the US gets any weaker. The US WILL ABANDON ISRAEL, so Israel needs to make its choice, NOW, before its future is imposed.
You are right about danger; you are wrong about opportunity.