Cries of 'hold me back' may lead Israel to strike Iran
Israel is trying to persuade others that if 'the world' doesn't act, it will attack Iran on its own.
By Aluf Benn Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu Iran Israel newsIsrael does not want to see Iran obtain a nuclear weapon. Israel also does not want a war with Iran that could become long and destructive. What can Israel do? It is faced with two strategies - one offensive, one preventive.
The offensive strategy calls for arming fighter jets that would bomb nuclear installations in Iran with the goal of delaying the development of the Iranian bomb by a few years. This is in the hope that the hiatus would continue indefinitely and the menacing project would be stopped in its tracks. The working assumption behind the offensive strategy is that "the world" has come to terms with an Iranian nuclear weapon and will not take action against it beyond verbal gestures devoid of content.
Those who favor bombing liken Barack Obama to Neville Chamberlain for the U.S. president's efforts to try to appease an Iranian Hitler. They believe that Israel must rely solely on itself and act alone, just as it did in 1981 against the Iraqi nuclear reactor and - according to foreign press reports - in 2007 against the Syrian reactor. A successful bombing is supposed to boost Israel's deterrent capability and restore its image as the region's strongest military power.
The drawback in the offensive strategy stems from its predictability. It is so predictable that Iran has made extensive efforts to neutralize it. The nuclear installations have been scattered and fortified against attack, and tens of thousands of Iranian missiles and rockets - which are capable of hitting Israel's population and commercial centers as well as its air force bases - have been deployed close by. The discovery of the uranium enrichment plant in Qom this past weekend highlighted the dilemma inherent in attacking Iran: Perhaps other sites have yet to be revealed, sites that serve as back-up installations for those that will be bombed. And who would dare attack a city considered one of the holiest in Shia Islam and risk a furious religious uprising throughout the region?
The preventive strategy strives to avoid a direct confrontation whose results are likely to be mixed and whose damage would be tangible. This strategy is designed to buy time while delaying the Iranian nuclear project until either the United States takes action or the regime in Tehran is weakened. The preventive approach's advantage is that it is cheaper than a war and allows for a confrontation with Iran without disrupting the normal flow of life in Israel, save for a larger defense budget. Yet preventive measures alone cannot prevent Iran from getting the bomb, and its success depends on external factors - the extent of American determination and the Iranian opposition. The preventive route also exacts a price at home because it is a nerve-racking process. The actions are covert in nature, creating the impression that the government is doing nothing to save Israel from this awful danger.
So far Israel has chosen the alternative - preventive diplomatic steps. Advocates of this approach say that it has succeeded in delaying the Iranian bomb by a few years at a low diplomatic and security cost to Israel. Yet its usefulness is gradually eroding as Iran gets closer to the bomb. Under these circumstances, Israel is trying to show that its patience is wearing thin. It is trying to persuade others that if "the world" does not act, it will embark on war against Iran on its own. To strengthen the credibility of the message "Hold me back," a strike force has been amassed while the military preparations are being reported in the foreign press with unprecedented frequency. The force buildup is also important for deterrent purposes in the event Iran obtains nuclear weapons, the Americans attack its nuclear installations and Israel bears the brunt of a counterattack.
Yet as the buildup continues, the temptation to use force grows. As Israel becomes more self-confident, its rhetoric escalates and the domestic pressure "to show them" - or as the prime minister likes to say, "not to come out suckers" in light of the infuriating, incendiary speeches of Iran's president - swells. This is the Iranian paradox: Creating an offensive option does not widen the government's room to maneuver. Rather, it narrows it while pushing Israel to abandon the preventive strategy and to attack.
In recent months, it seems Israel's preventive strategy is paying dividends. The Iranian regime has lost some of its strength following the rigged presidential election and subsequent repression of the opposition, while Obama has taken a tougher public stance against Iran. It is in Israel's interest to see both trends gain momentum - Iran's weakening and America's determination. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's challenge in the coming months will be to withstand the burgeoning pressures to attack Iran, keep his composure and not become frightened at his own speeches warning of "a second Holocaust" while adhering to the preventive strategy. This is the most effective way, one that will give incentive to the West to rein in the Iranians without risking harm to Israel.
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it would be a mistake for iran to use there little a bomb isreal would wipe iran from the planet we need to let the gov of iran no that if they ever use this bomb that it would be thier end we need to get this message to thier people and see what they think we need to let them know that we would hold them responsible for thier actions.we have bombs that are more powerfull then the a-bomb ihope that it doesnt come to that but isreal has a right to exsist and we should help them BUT LET GODS WILL BE DONE
What if... Israel plays into the whole, "we may have overeacted", school of thought rachet's down the rethoric, make's chummy, and nice, play's like there going along with the waiting game, then, like lightning from above, surgically strikes with precision, and is gone before you can say, "oh no you didn't", then sit's back and say's, "oh yes, i'm afraid we just did....
the only decent thing the west can do to try the iranian regime before it comes to their stalingrad. why not save some millions, and sentence to long prison the chief mafia mullahs and the IRGC crime bosses?
Let Israel bomb Iran's oil wells and watch the price of oil go to $ 2 a litre. Watch the US economy meltdown and Israel lose its funds.
The postings by the knee-jerk anti=Zionists has gotten me too sick. You are deluding yourselves and trying to delude us when you say 'all Israle has to do is play nice with the Palestinians.' Oh sure, that has worked very well in Hebron (when they massacred and drove-out a long-standing Jewish community and in Jaffa. We all know how peace-loving and kind the Islamic culture is. Jerks, Jews will take a backseat to noone in the land of Israel and if need be we will bring down the whole world to keep our small piece of land. The ideao of stomaching an ISlamic bomb especially one held by the lunatic psycho turband-hatted onese in Iran has got to be more frightening to my Western secular culture than a bunch of scared Jews who have no other home. Please go post on Hebullah's site or even better Al JAzeera.
It is obvious that Israel will attack Iran with its seven U-212 submarines on a moonless night; during a month of its choosing.
Reading Mark after some years here on Talkback thanks to you we will get another lecture on the science of radioactive stuff, low- and high grade particles, different forms of enrichment, U-this and U-that, the air currents in the region and finally a nice hint to do some reading on subjects before you open your mouth. No offense meant Mark, always enjoying the way you present your opinions with plausible (intersubjective) facts and detailled knowledge of the subject, espescially when military or scientific.
No more talk. Just do it already! The Iranians aren't backing down. Europe is useless. The Russians and Chinese are out. And President Obama has two wars on his hands, and doesn't seem to want to occupy a third. Israel could wait, but to wait is to lose the edge. And it's nice to have an edge.
Ifthe Arans were to lay down their arms tomorrow, there would be no war. If Israel was to lay down its arms tomorrow, there would be no Israel. Think about it.
about a possible strike on Iran's nuclear facilities. Iran is 100% certain that Israel will not do this and as a result, keep building and baiting the fearful elements in Israeli and American leadership. Both Israel, America, et alii, have lost tons of credibility for whatever reasons. "Crippling" sanctions are just an escape route for less than decisive political and armchair military leaders.
First of all, as an Arab from a very different culture than that of America I would not know of the Ku Klux Klan. You see it just happens to be there are other people from other different cultures who don?t care that much about the details of your American culture. K, K, & K is something I came up with on spot. If you have a twisted imagination then that is your problem. Secondly, my brothers in Gaza and the West bank don?t want to leave their lands and country ?although the Israeli government is trying its best to make sure they do choose to leave, along with certain people like you who believe they should leave. Who is being full of hate and racism now? Do note that I am saying Israeli government, not all Israelis in general. I do believe there many sensible and fair Israeli people (Harretz and many of its writers and journalist represent one example).
there's a third choice Israel could disclose it has a secret nuclear arsenal that in the interests of peace it will now dismantle. what would the reacton be if Islamic nations started sabre rattling over israel's EXISTING stockpile of nukes? i repeat Iran has never threatened Israel with pre-emptive attack. once again israel is projecting onto others its history of pre-emptive strikes that includes the 67 war and all of the wars with Lebanon.
Oil revenues are the Iranian regimes orincipal source of income. If all the Iranian oil wells (whose locations are not secret) were totally destroyed, the regimeme of the ayatollahs would soon collapse like a house of cards. Americans and Europeans would have to pay more for fuel for a while, but, actually, that's not a bad thing, as the development of alternative sources of energy would of necessity be accelerated.
Nuclear Bombs Exist. Why not a Shia? Since Second Wold War, Nuclear weapons have proved to be a deterrence (cold war, india/china conflicts), rather than a threat or a problem. The World will learn to live with a Nuclear Iran. Iran has every potential to become a Western Ally. Let the West dump Saudi, Israel and Egypt and embrace a partnership with the Iranian People. The rest of the Gulf countries can live with a friendly Iran and lucrative investments in it, and away from Saudi blackmail.
Hit 'em now? But my dear, with your next breath you say "and avoid a costly, unwinnable war." What kind of logic is this? Too much good beer? Hit 'em now means, "let's start a war, even if it's unwinnable." Have another beer. Salaam/Shalom
Iran (Persia) has not attacked another country in over 2000 years. It has no strategic interests or territorial greed to infer even a hint that it would start a war with anybody. It has a neighbor (Israel) that is the epitome of a militaristic and belligerant nation. Only sensible that Iran prepare defenses. Between Israel and Iran, there's enough hot air threats to sell 10 million newspapers - but one doesn't go about killing thousands of people because of bully-talk. No?
Israel does not want to see Iran obtain a nuclear weapon. - Aluf Benn Mark, I have come to the conclusion that Israel will not allow any surrounding state nuclear capability of any kind. That would have a breakout potential. On a separate note, The Israeli airstrikes against nuclear sites in Iraq and the Supposed facility in Syria did not result in any nuclear contamination locally or regionally. The Iraqi site had not yet had loaded with fuel. The Syrian facility was supposedly under construction. If Israel were to strike any of the operational nuclear sites in Iran, particularly Bushehr, I would expect that there would be considerable nuclear contamination throughout the region primarily in the states along the coast of the Persian Gulf, not to mention Iran itself. What surprises me is that I have never heard any discussion of the possibility of such contamination and its ramifications. Care to comment?
Chronic Jew-baiters, as your post demonstrates, disproportionately condemn Israel while minimizing the culpability of the US for its interventions and occupations, which reflect the US's long history and concern to "subvert Middle Eastern democracies"(Khalidi, Sowing Crisis, 2009, p. 21, 122). By contrast, honest critics recognize that this perspective in which culpability for US occupations is minimized and that of Israel more strongly condemned "is a phantasmagoric view of politics" that "amounts to turning things upside down" and reflects "some degree of antisemitism" (Chomsky and Achcar, Perilous Power, 2009, p. 63).
that way they can be free of 2 thorns (iran & israel/PALs)that the world can't/won't/ doesn't want to deal with? they can free of israel and think they didn't contribute to it's destruction - kind of like what the europeans did with jews in the 30's and 40's in europe ("it's not our problem hitler's killing jews) and then they can be free of iran and all the trouble and chaos that they cause in the world - no problems in lebanon, in iraq, and many other counties - you know suadi arabia and other counties are rooting for that! just a thought
all embrace each other tomorrow at one big love fest, Iran would still a)remain the deadly enemy of Israel and b) not give up it's nuclear weapons programme. The constant repetition of : "if only Israel would treat the Palestinians better there would be peace on earth" is not only boring, but lacks any logic.
Iran is a threat to the world. This is a given fact these days. A nuclear Iran is a terrifying likelihood. All one must do is talk to Iran's neighbors and Iranian dissidents who are the most scared of their nation's regime. Israel can attack Iran easily but must receive the OK from Russia, China and the US who depend on Iranian oil. The key to Iran is rendering useless it's oil fields. Once Israel does this the rest of the nation will entirely collapse and this will cause the world to use alternative energies and get off this poisonous oil and the stranglehold of extremist Islam on the rest of the world.
Neither Hizabalah nor Hammas cannot move a finger after the IDF action. The IDF is setting precedents for the Western world, and is proving also to America, how proxies armies sheltered under women skirts are neutralized without genocide. The next step is Iran. I would not recommend Israel to tackle Iran on itslef, however, I would not advice the Iranians to miss around with Israel because they will be buried in the sand. Iran is a great huge country, but it is enough to take Teheran and Qum and that is the end of this backward state. Backward and week. And what about the Iranian ballistic project? Let's see, my dear. Wait and see. Israel can disarray most the Iranian ballistic project and the Iranians know it.
For Israel to make an effective attack the IAF must attack Iran's water facilities, power plants, oil fields, bridges, dams, air fields, army bases, bunker installations, communications, SAM sites, army, naval vessels, shipping vessels, missile sites, leadership centers, and naturally nuclear installations. I am sure I missed some targets and I am sure that the most crucial ones are hidden under Mosques, schools and hospitals as is the terrorist way. I have nothing against the Iranian people and this is the best possibility for Iranians to be liberated from the Ayatollah.
Sorry to say it,but the chutzpah is on the west. To think that Israel would listen to them,with their history of treatment of Jews. The west is the birth place of Fascism,Nazism, anti-Semitism,a 1000 "small wars"and WW1,WW2. Yet they have the chutzpah to give Israel incentive to make peace.
This info is all from govt and NGO sites, NOT THE MEDIA: The height of Iranian HEU possession was the 6 kilos of 93% U235 given to it by the USA in 1967. Since then, up to 2003 inspectors were given free reign. They were expelled then. In 2007 they were allowed back and demanded access to documents and sites. After some prodding, the Iranians relented. Traces of HEU have been found at one site. This result was never replicated despite further visits and the Iranians claim a CIA plot. THe sites where HEU was supposed to have been made all came out negative. This latest refinement centre is incomplete and the Iranians VOLUNTEERED the information to the IAEA. The fuss is over the fact that they didn't fulfil the requirements of 'Subsidiary Arrangement General Part, code 3.1'. WHich requires early provision of design information. But this is VOLUNTARY! Research rather than paniking and recycling propaganda!!
are (mentally) a sandwich or two short of a picnic? Here we have Heather Czerniak from Milwaukee urging 'a massive preemptive nuclear assault' on Iran. An Israeli nuclear strike Heather, are you completely mad? (Don't answer that one). Do you have any concept of the numbers that would be killed by radiation, by fallout in neighbouring countries, of the tremendous backlash Israel would face, including nuclear, of contaminated land and water for hundreds of miles around? The belief that Israel can just strike and all will be fixed is simply childish daydreams.
stop descriminating against muslims get an event like the one the spanish and brits got, did i mention algeria install the shariya law in france convert to islam have a good life
...as there is no comparison between Israel's various and illegal occupations and the US military operating at the behest of both Iraq and Afghanistan. Al Qaeda is not a homegrown resistance group that limits its activity towards the occupier, indeed, the bin Laden led terrorist organization would like to operate all over the world if it could. They, and the Taliban and Iran take great delight in the fact that the US provides cover for Israel to make war on civilians with impunity, a word that Judge Richard Goldstone is highlighting this week that is no doubt causing great gulps of Pepto-Bismal at the US State Department. This fact gives them a great terrorist recruiting tool, to fight against and attack American and Israeli interests. I propose taking away that excuse forever. And all that needs to happen for that much needed change in accountability is for the world to finally force justice to be done for the Palestinians using the rule of law.
I agree with the part in Netanyahu's speech about the fact the fact that the present regime in Iran would send us back to an Age of Barbarism. This is why the people of Iran have started rebelling.And people like Obama who are descended from scholars and intellectuals, had better be listening and paying attention, because it is also their way of life and what they want to pass on to their children which is what is at stake. In that sense, I would say, yes, that Obama is a bit of a "Nevi Chamberlain
take out or set back Iranian ambitions is advisable as a deterrent in the public forum.It is certain that the conflict will be at least gigantically conventional and devastating to the Israel public, institutions and military. Therefore Israel and her allies ought to assert that the destruction of Iran's nuclear program is secondary to a declaration of war and complete eradication of Iran's conventional capabilities, and those of her allies. All of Israel's capacity needs to be utilized should she have to go it alone. Obviously it would be better if Iran, Syria, and Russia stepped back and calculated the ultimate cost of selling bigotry for domestic gains.
...and yes, Israel will eventually give back the stolen land in the Golan, East Jerusalem, the West Bank, Gaza, Shebaa Farms and North Ghajjar. It's the rule of law dude.
..."If I am not for myself, who am I?"...
I think it is important to keep on talking; time is not necessarily on Tehran's side, as the opposition is gaining momentum and is generally less extreme than the hardliners who are in control. At the same time we shouldn't have any illusions about the nature of the regime. What binds them together against their many enemies is hatred of the US, the West, Israel and internal democracy. This would make them extremely dangerous should they ever get the bomb.
I have no doubt that Israel already has this option on the table and it is probably already in it's tactical plans but, this needs to be made clear and open to world and the muselim nations surrounding Israel that, Israel (assuming Israel has Nuclear weapons and everyone assumes they do) will have a nuclear response to every (no exceptions) Arab/Muslim country within range if Iran fires any missile towards Israel. Assuming any Missile fired aginst Israel would be a nuclear weapon and thus might literally destroy Israel. I am sure ever Arab/Muslim Nation in the middle east would make sure Iran had no nuclear weapons.
Maybe it wasn't such a good idea, concentrating so many Jews in one place. That is a basic military concept, spread your forces out so that a strike can't devastate your whole unit. In this, the era of megalomaniacs with nuclear trigger fingers, maybe Zionism should craft some new strategy.
Maureen just to educate you i am a Jew and i was born in Scotland.My family has never asked for anything we have fought for the countrys where we have lived.We have never been classed as full citizens in any of the country we have lived.The Jews that have moved to Israel are there for many reasons one of which is persecutionanother is we have never forgot from whence we came this has been passed down through our familys for thousands of years.When Jews statred moving back to Israel they did so peaceably there could have been peace between arabs and Jews but the arabs did not want it.Imagine if the Brits had fought against all the Indians and pakistanis but they did not .I can guarantee you that as a Jew i know that my brothers wanted to live side by side in peace but unfortunately the arabs never wanted this.As for palestinians Jews were palestinians too and yes they used to get attacked by the arabs .You jkeep mentioning Europeans as if they are not true jews well you are wrong.
Nobody should fool themselves, the day Iran sends a rocket or just any atack on Israel. The response will be swift and fast with atomic weapons. this way Iran will cease to exist. the rest of the woeld will sufer for their pasive behavior, such as chamberlain with hitler
We stuck it to the Iranian tyrant we sang we danced we laughed that is how us Jews show contempt for amenijhad.They like to kill we love to have fun and enjoy life.
Israel is scared stiff from the threat of a few thousand missiles destroying its cities, nuclear and chemo/biological weapons sites etc; in short if Israel were to attack Iran then there won't be many wealthy Zionist tourists coming to visit the holy land a few hundred years.
In fact if Israel was capable of attacking Iran in any meaningful way Israel would have done so during the tenancy of the White House. The fact they didn't suggests that Israel has no intention of attacking Iran instead preferring that the Western democracies start a war against Iran for the benefit of Israel.
it's coming folks, get ready.
Fear not Israel, the same God who gave victory to Israel in recent wars against her enemies( six-day-war, Yom kippur war, etc) as well as in other wars along thousands of years is the same God who will make sure Israel will prevail again. Iran will be ashamed, so will those who support Iran, like the arabs were ashamed and those who supported them in the six-day-war. God bless Israel.
"The IDF are a bunch of scardey cats"say the man that admire the bravery of Hamas. The USA armed forces couldn't kick their own butt.Vietnam?Korea?Afghanistan?black hawk is down?. you watch to many Rambo ans Crocodile dundee movies.
Why don't you take in your poor Muslim brothers from the West Bank and Gaza instead of denying them immigration visas? And if you're not anti-Jewish, why did you choose "K,K & K" for a moniker? The Ku Klux Klan doesn't like Muslims either.
Be assured that Israel will use its nukes if it attacks Iran at all. And Israel has hundreds of nukes and a strong willingness to use them against any adversary. This is the scenario you end up with when you take a small dog with a big bite and back him into a corner.
The longer the rest of the world stalls on imposing sanctions on Iran, the closer Israel will get to finally acting on its own...with nukes! Iran has a much larger military than Israel, which is precisely why Israel will have no choice but to rely on its nuclear arsenal. A massive preemptive nuclear assault is more preferable and effective to just watching the radar screen for incoming blips. Hit 'em now and avoid a costly, un-winnable war.
d: "Iran is a paper tiger" Based on what assessment, exactly? Because we certainly do have an example from 2006 that shows that the IDF are nowhere near as good as they thought they were, and the events of Cast Lead to show that the IDF are a bunch of scaredy cats. I have no doubt that the USA Armed Forces could kick Iran's butt any day of the week. But the IDF? Doubtful. Very doubtful.
"Israel does not want to see Iran obtain a nuclear weapon. Israel also does not want a war with Iran that could become long and destructive." - Aluf Benn Israel wants a war. As only the occupation of Iran can prevent a bomb program if Iran is determined to have one, then Israel wants a long and destructive war. Israel lives in dreams of the quick, clean, easy victories of the distant past. It romanticizes juvenile fantasies of omnipotence and invulnerability. It dreams of an easy strike from the blue which will set everything right. Were Israel a person it would be committed for it's own protection. The dream of a quick strike and a cheering arrival beneath the 'Mission Accomplished' sign is lunacy.
The west and Israel should concentrate all their efforts in supporting the opposition in Iran instead of attacking Iran.There are many ways to work together with them.How do you think the people of Iran would feel about us if we will destroy their country and kill the people.Even in the event of successful attack on their nuclear.But the day the Mullahs will go away,and they will.The people of Iran will remember who helped them to get rid of the abuser.
I can only hope that Israel is sensible enough not to attack Iran. While some Arab countries (esp Arab Gulf ones) may not favor Iran, still when the choice comes down to Iran or Israel, they will favor Iran. Please note that we Arabs and Muslims don't like Isreal not because they are ?Jews?, like your propaganda spreads, but don't like Israel because of their unjust, massacres and occupation of our brothers the Palestinian and Lebanese people. So if Israel hits Iran then that would enrage a lot of Muslims make and will be taken as a war on Islam. Like it or not Isreal, but you are surrounded by 1 Billion of Muslims from all boarders. So please Israeli government stop the arrogance and ignorance. Because the truth is we are all tired of war both us Muslims and I am sure many Isreali sensible people as well. So if Isreal hits Iran that would confuse a lot of Muslims make identify with the Iranians and take it as another war on Islam. Like it or not Isreal, but you are surronded with
You seem to think that a peace with the Palestinians is a global peace.You would still have a war between your country and the Arabs. Would the US ends its occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan?That will end the various "local" resistance groups including Taliban and Al-Qaida Even after the Palestinians will have their state,Muslim terror will go on.They are good in finding excuses for it.The UK,or Spain are not in war with them,yet it didn't help them much. I don't think Israel should attack Iran for various reasons,but i'm not as naive as you,who think that all the world'a problems exist because of the Israeli Palestinian conflict.It is far from it.The real global problem is between Islamic fundamentalism and western democracy.The west have chosen appesement and submissions,like they did with Fascism and Communism,and when they will get fed up,they will remove the gloves.The Palestinians should have a state but it won't make the world any better place to live in.
Comparison between Obama and Chamberlain makes Chamberlain look the ultimate toughie. The longer Israel delays re Iran the worse it is and soon it will be too late
The chorus "just peace, pre-67 borders" is just that a pop refrain with about as much substance as "do wah wah do" and driven more than racism than realism. Might sound great to some people but means nothing. There was no peace in 1967 and there was no peace in 1956 or .. The same singers said "once you end the occupation of Gaza there will be peace".. And what did one get? The absolute worse case scenario of the most hawkish opponents of leaving Gaza. Could a new Arab state exist on pre-67 lands that once were part of Jordon and Egypt? No. OK.. remove Gaza.. Still no.. Everyone knows this.. And, of course, no Arab leader ever wanted this but to have the Middle East ethnically cleansed of Jews.. Most of the Middle East, save Israel, is now Judenrein.. and the chorus calling it peace is just crying for the rest.. they sing here "let Iran have a bomb to create a balance of power for peace" but what they really pray for is to get their "final solution" to the "Jewish problem".
Indeed they do Mark. The protracted smearing of politicians likely to bring change is something we have seen before and in our case was the harbinger of a political murder. May those around Obama understand what these noises mean and take the necessary measures to protect him.
Please dont kill my people. I know all Israel wants to do is murder people. Im willing to hand myself to Mr Ehud Olmert in replacement of Israel attacking my country. Mr Olmert can torture me all he likes, I know thats how he gets his kicks. And he can broadcast it on live TV, because thats what turns you people on. This is just the impression I get.
give money and guns and intel to the protestors, let them take over from within. Iran is weak!
The Golan will never be given back - wars of aggression have consequences for the loser The West Bank will never be given up - wars have consequences for the loser What other country gave backa fter winning wars of self defence? You are a dreamer dude
I sincerely believe that somehow the solution to the Iranian nuclear problem is much easier than many people may think. The core and initiater of the Iranian nuclear threat certainly and mainly lays with President Ahmadinejad. Without him I believe the nuclear problem will collapse and most probably be reduced to maybe 20-30 percent. The world has witnessed the "taking out" of some past heads of state by the secret services of various countries for less important reasons. So what would be easier than launching an assassination operation on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when he shows his face once again outside Iran if the operation in Iran proper proves to be too difficult. The world then will scream hell and murder for a while but eventually everybody will be highly thankful to that secret service team that managed to get rid of this world threatening bad rubbish. Inshallah.
In fact they really don't want to nuke Israel, they want Israel to attact them and kill a few million Iranians for the big backlash that will come on Israel from the WHOLE world. The dead are Shihadda that died for the cause, thus crying out to the world for Israel to be punished and they will. The number of aircraft that can arrive with a payload is small, it's a long flight, and the actual locations to bomb is not 100% clear. So that leaves nukes that would kill most of the population around the sites, mostly around Teharan. ATTACKING IS A NO WIN OPTION !! But for those of us that believe in the God of Israel, "Israel is safe"
Give me a break. So now you want to attack Iran on your own taking out all of it's scattered nuke sites that are located under mountains? What will you use besides nukes that can accomplish that? Unless you plan to send in ground commandos to try and invade and destroy these sites which will be a very lomg shot operation that has 10% chance of success. As I see it you are all talk and have no balls to do anything about it without the US/UK and rest of western world invloved 100%. You could not take out a rag tag militia Hizballah and you had 34 days, so now you want to take out Iran ... Bwahahahaha
The preventive strategy suggested by the author of the article has little chances of success. Iranians went through tremendous sacrifices in order to obtain a nuclear capability. They are not going to give up every thing now that they are only few steps away from reaching their goal. The iranians will not bend regardless the pressure the West will impose upon them. Unfortunately the only valid strategy at this stage looks like to be the military one.
1. Yes (no problem there never was one) 2. Yes (Much Jewsih land was recovered in 48-67, we agree to let Arabs to keep some of land they stole from Israel) 3. No (Hamas, Hisballah, Iran, Syria said no way no end of war till no Istrael)
ML:If The US, UK, France and Australia had any guts or common sense we would try to keep Israel out of this fight by using existing UN Security Council Resolutions to detain and search Iranian ships rather than depend on sanctions that are easily circumvented by Iran. KG: If The US, UK, France and Australia had any guts or common sense we would be using all the existing UN Security Council Resolutions to ensure that Israel abided by all calls to leave the occupied territories, thereby alleviating the need for any more wars. Remember it is Israel that is breaking International Law.
Israel is known to have nukes, so why shouldn't Iran and any other country? Attacking Iran would be a grave mistake, it would bring massive accurate rocket assaults on Tel Aviv and other cities, far worse than Hezbollahs sputtering efforts. Israel would be the pariah of the world politically and suffer massive sanctions, and most important, Iran would simply repair the damage and carry on. Israel's massive propaganda effort may be a mistake and only bolsters Irans determination. Iran is a country in political turmoil, and the best path is to encourage moderates in opposition to the medeival policies of the Ayatollahs. Having nukes won't help Iran in it's own division between modernity and regression. Let it implode of it's own accord. To see downed Israeli pilots on parade in Teheran will be an unforgiveable tragedy. Don't bomb the buggers. Let them implode themselves.
All signs show that Iran, if anything, is accelerating its development of the bomb. It could care less about pressure as long as it can trade with China. The only (bad) alternative seems to be an attack
Just one note, Netanyahu's campaign to de-legitimize and emasculate Obama has continues apace. If Iran buys in, Israel may get exactly what it doesn't want. And all the Birthers and Republicans praying for Obama's failure just keep on plugging. Actions have reactions.
Should I? Shouldn't I? Dare I? Daren't I? Here's a simple rule of thumb that should serve you well: work out how likely you are to WIN, and then decide if you feel lucky enough to roll the dice at those odds. "It is faced with two strategies - one offensive, one preventive." Such nonsense. Israel has done its threat analysis, and it shows that the IDF is not a sure bet to win a war with Iran, so Israel is not willing to start a war that it will have to fight on its own. It. Really. Is. As. Simple. As. That.
I really hope that if Israel does decide to attack, it does school it pilots in recognition of the American flag.. It's unlikely that US ships are steaming in the Gulf with their defensive systems on "Stand-by." The former captain of the USS Stark can attest to that. It would be a shame if an Israeli pilot had flag recognition problems. It would also be a shame if the IAF decides to overfly US allies in the Gulf. They are well equipped and might not blithely accept violation of their airspace. This would apply particularly to Iraq whose airspace the US is obliged by written agreement to defend. The US cannot and probably wouldn't try to stop you from starting WW III. But don't count on the US to follow or back your politician's insanity. Bush wouldn't and it's doubtful Obama would, either. Those hoping Obama fails should remember that if he does or is not taken seriously because Iran doesn't consider him legitimate, may just see an Iranian nuclear weapon as a result.
If Israel thought that they could safely attack and destroy Iran's nuclear facilities they would already have done it. They cannot. Peace for Israel will not come through military superiority maintained in perpetuity. Peace will come through justice for the Palestinians. That is the ONLY way.
Netanyahu and his cronies can bomb Iran and then can land on an aircraft carrier a la bush. But simply dropping bombs on Iran and playing conquering hero won't solve the problem if we don't know where all the sites are and could easily start a war that Israel won't be able to finish on its own, plus bombing Iran would probably strenthen the regime
Just do it. Premptive nuclear attack. who cares about the lives of the Iranians. who cares if a premptive nuclear attack opens wider the nuclear pandora of nuclear world destruction. whats important is that we survive a few more years.
Israel would lose lots of planes, pilots would be captured and paraded before show trials, israels diplomatic isolation would increase, and the supposed goal of stopping the Iranians would not be acheived. Forget it.
If Israel attacks Iran, Iran will use what is left of it's missile force to try to attack Israel and it's ally the US. US bases surrounding Iran are bound to come under Iranian attack. The US will have to respond and we will have a large scale asymetric conflict with the Iranians making trouble for the US and it's allies around the world and on Iran's door step. The US will dominate the air and sea and Iran will avoid a conventional set-piece land battle. If The US, UK, France and Australia had any guts or common sense we would try to keep Israel out of this fight by using existing UN Security Council Resolutions to detain and search Iranian ships rather than depend on sanctions that are easily circumvented by Iran. I cannot see this mess ending well. The long term solution must be political, not military because Iran can rebuild it's program in 3 to 5 years.
1- stop the Palestinian genocide 2- stop stealing land 3- make peace That's the only way to deflate the crisis.
Iran minus the Revolutionary Ayatollahs that took power after the Shah of Iran fled, wouldn't be anymore of a threat than Turkey, which is not a threat, to anyone but the Kurdish Guerillas at this point. There must have been some somewhat decent Ayatollahs or Mullahs before Khomeini returned from France. They were still Shi'ites, weren't they? I don't know. Do whatever the hell you want. Just make sure this thing doesn't explode into something that backfires on Israel, or turns into a regional war, or worse. Good luck with taking out the reactors!
Not because it would meaningfully delay Iran's acquisition to develop nuclear weapons. Still less because such a strike would weaken the current government of Iran or deter it from pursuing the development of nuclear weapons. Fairly obviously, a strike would have the contrary effect. Israel will strike because it will embroil the region in conflict and lead to an increase in attacks on Israel. Israel doesn't put it to herself quite like this, but she needs war, and she needs conflict. It is peace that she fears.
he makes sense. What a dilemma.
...on Iran in the sometime future, and that's *if* you follow this so-called "preventive diplomatic steps" - gee, not much of a future eh? Of course, there is a way out. Making a fair and just peace and ending all of the illegal occupations in accordance with international law, UN resolutions and the Arab Peace Initiative would end the various *local* resistance groups including Hamas and Hezbollah. That removes two of Iran's so-called "proxies" in the region and gives them much less local leverage over events as real peace brings trade and prosperity. The alternative is spelled out in the article, unless real peace takes the wind out of Iran's sails, Israel's future promises a war that has never before been seen by living Israelis. Time indeed is up. Israel must countenance a real fair and just peace or ruin.
To bring Israel to the peace table and to negotiate a just agreement with the Palestinian and the Syrians it is necessary to pull back to the 1967 borders. This requires the Iranians or some other Middle East country to have a nuclear capacity. Israel must be placed under the threat of nuclear retaliation if it threatens to use the bomb to maintain it's hegemony. It is now obvious that Israel is not amendable to any restrictions on it's ambitions in the Middle-East and with the rise of the settlement mentality the situation can only get worse. War is inevitable under the present conditions and Obama is wasting his time and energy trying to negotiate and agreement with a right wing government who's purpose is to colonize all of the West Bank and the Golan Heights.
Sorry to say it, but Israel is a small, largely insignificant country. To assume that "Israbluff" is "incentivizing" the West to do anything is the height of chutzpah. Israel is not the center of the world -- Aluf Benn should know better than this.
Israel should take the south korean stance vis a vis North Korea. It should simply stay quiet, threaten of mass destruction if attacked with mass destruction, show military force and power, and gain diplomatic recognition while letting Iran fall in it's own well just like North Korea does. A crippling economy will eventually persuade the Iranians to revolt against their own government and drop nukes as soon as possible.
Iran has already suffered too much under attempted colonialist rule - Ango/American. Israel has had a bee in its bonnet ever since Iranian oil was nationalized... don't blame the Iranians if God gave Jews (not European new comers) a sliver of land with few natural resources and little water. How would Israel gain by knocking out Iran - a greater slice of business in Central Asia?
and support of Iraq's war, and just Anything that postpones indefinitely Negotiating with the Palestinians. Luckily the World is smarter, Bush is no longer in charge and "Rogue" Palin did not make it.