• Published 01:11 01.10.09
  • Latest update 10:13 01.10.09

COMMENT / Washington doesn't get it: Iran just wants the bomb

Leaving Iran to the unpersuasive U.S., UN sanctions could bring Israel to the outer limits of survival.

By Louis Rene Beres Tags: Iran Barack Obama Israel news

Over the summer, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden boldly asserted that Israel, "as a sovereign nation," has the right to protect itself against a nuclearizing Iran. In law, the precise protective action that Biden had in mind is called "anticipatory self-defense." Now, however, official Washington is offering Jerusalem much less audacious "advice" than undertaking a permissible preemption. In essence, the current and still plainly futile message is "tougher sanctions."

On several occasions, the "international community" has imposed "serious" sanctions against Iran. Nonetheless, uranium enrichment has only accelerated in that country. At no time, in fact, has Tehran shown even the slightest inclination to value a promised proper place in the world higher than simply getting "the bomb." Once again, Washington just doesn't get it.

In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu understands, of course, that his country can rely on its Arrow anti-missile system for only a very limited measure of active defense. Israel's ballistic missile defense network can never provide the Jewish state with adequate security from a nuclear attack on its civilian population. Recently, Defense Minister Ehud Barak affirmed this essential understanding, stating explicitly three times that all preemptive options must remain on the table.

No country can be expected to cooperate in its own annihilation. Leaving Iran to the manifestly unpersuasive sanctions of the United States, and/or of the United Nations, could bring Israel to the outer limits of survival. If U.S. President Barack Obama already understands this, and if he also cares about Israel's survival, he would not now be demanding that Netanyahu hew obsequiously to a discredited and banal policy of contradictory Iran options.

For now, Israel's best hope would seem to lie in some prospect of internal Iranian reform, and Jerusalem should therefore do whatever it can to help along any such transformation.

At the same time, it is entirely possible that the Islamic Republic of Iran will remain unchanged with respect to its basic critical stance on Israel, and that suitably enhanced forms of essential military preparedness will have to be implemented in Israel.

Here is the key issue: As long as Israel can reasonably assume that any expected Iranian leadership will remain rational, Prime Minister Netanyahu could focus on "living with a nuclear Iran." Such a "coexistence" policy would represent a regrettable, but largely unavoidable, position, one that would need to be backed up with a selectively partial end to Israel's "nuclear ambiguity" (the so-called "bomb in the basement"), and with genuinely credible threats of Israeli nuclear reprisals for nuclear aggressions. More precisely, these deterrent threats would have to include aptly explicit references to Israel's nuclear targeting doctrine ("counter-city" or "counter-value," never "counter-force"), as well as compelling evidence of both the survivability and penetration capability of Israel's deterrent nuclear forces.

If, however, Israel cannot reasonably assume that all still-plausible Iranian leaderships will remain rational, Netanyahu would need to make highly informed judgments concerning the expected probability of Iranian leadership irrationality.

Where such an expectation would be "low," Israel could continue to rely in part on the enhanced nuclear deterrence measures just discussed. (There would also have to be a complementary and partial reliance on ballistic missile defense, or the Arrow). But where such an expected probability would be deemed "high," Israel could have no rational alternative to some form of preemption against pertinent Iranian nuclear assets or infrastructures.

It follows from all this that virtually any necessary nuclear policy taken by Israel vis-a-vis Iran will offend Washington, and that Netanyahu will simply need to accept such a negative political response from Obama as the distinctly lesser evil.

The writer is a professor of international law at Purdue University and was chairman of Project Daniel, a small private group that delivered a special report, "Israel's Strategic Future," to former prime minister Ariel Sharon in January 2003.

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    This story is by: Louis Rene Beres
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  • 125. 0 0
    Is the world missing the obvious?
    • Al Zuniga
    • 05.10.09
    • 18:08

    Is it me? or is the world missing the obvious? Iran continues to assert their nuclear program is for peaceful nuclear energy purposes; then why would they 'hide' a secondary site in a mountain and near a military base? Their response, to protect the site from attack. There would be no need for any military to attack a peaceful nuclear program, unless it is discovered that this program is in fact the pursuit of nuclear armament.

  • 124. 0 0
    American NUTJOB in NY
    • *BEN JABO
    • 04.10.09
    • 05:56

    Jews in the Ghetto had one thing Gazan's don't have, TRANSPORT TO THE DEATH CAMPS AND CREMATORIA, nor did they have weapons to fight the Nazis with I see your purpose in life is to spout hate and lies

  • 123. 0 0
    Fortuna, good on you...
    • BBSNews
    • 04.10.09
    • 04:36

    ...for again, not getting it right.

  • 122. 0 0
    For Mark Lincoln
    • Fortuna Benmayor
    • 04.10.09
    • 00:46

    Israel doesn't want a war. Israel didn't start the Iranian evil, its export of terrorism, its arming, funding and training Islamic Jihad, Hamas or Hizballah; Israel is not the culprit of the Nazi rhetoric used by Iran, its holocaust denial, its threats to wipe off Israel off the face of the earth. Israeli civilians has been victims of Iran in the very streets of Israel for decades. And so have been Jews in Buenos Aires for example. Your logic is so twisted that is resembles the Iranian regime's one.

  • 121. 0 0
    Please translate this
    • Fortuna Benmayor
    • 04.10.09
    • 00:38

    "it is entirely possible that the Islamic Republic of Iran will remain unchanged with respect to its basic critical stance on Israel, and that suitably enhanced forms of essential military preparedness will have to be implemented in Israel." What are 'suitable forms of essential military preparedness'?

  • 120. 0 0
    Big Sur # 56 re BBS Post 111 meant for you
    • American in NY
    • 03.10.09
    • 17:47

  • 119. 0 0
    Roo you're happy for the mullahs to have nukes?
    • Peter Williams
    • 03.10.09
    • 14:52

    In many of your posts you are critical of the position of others wthout stating where you stand on the issue. Ok so you don't like the idea of destroying Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Should we infer from this that you are happy with Iran achieving nuclear power status?

  • 118. 0 0
    Roman aka Wow.
    • Roo
    • 03.10.09
    • 12:07

    "I prefer to rely on others sources when talking about Ahmadinejad`s wipping Israel off the map" Look at MEMRI.A very pro-Israel site. When founded in 1998, MEMRI's staff of seven included three who had formerly served in Military Intelligence in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Yet the Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) translates the phrase as "be eliminated from the pages of history." According to Juan Cole,( a University of Michigan Professor of Modern Middle East and South Asian History,and an outspoken critic of the current Iranian regime) Ahmadinejad's statement should be translated as: The Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem (een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods) must [vanish from] the page of time (bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad). According to Cole, "Ahmadinejad did not say he was going to 'wipe Israel off the map' because no such idiom exists in Persian". Instead, "He did say he hoped its regime, i.e., a Jewish-Zionist state occupying Jerusalem, would collapse." As for Persian Kitty being an anti semite. There is another possibility. That you are a a jerk. I know which of the two makes more sense to me.

  • 117. 0 0
    # 112 American Ahmad frm. N.Y.
    • The Teacher/Instruct
    • 03.10.09
    • 08:52

    # 114, Why bother to answer this crappy # 112 from N.Y. Can't you see people like him/her are among the most ungrateful species on earth ? First the host country allows them in,& later on they scheme & don't know how to harm their host.Stabbing them with a dagger,or a 'Shabaria' in their backs. See what they did to the Twin Towers ! Now you know who they are ? The more you give them,the more they want.They are never satisfied with milking those countries,until they suck their blood ! Homeland Security should be on their tails,to see what they are planning next !

  • 116. 0 0
    #111 Jihadist in NY comparing Gaza to Warsaw ghetto!
    • Wow
    • 03.10.09
    • 04:55

    Does Israelis bring people into the Ghetto? are food rations for Gazans limited to 220 kcal? Are typhus and starvation keeping the inhabitants at about the same number? How many Gazans died due to rampant disease or starvation? I'm asking because in Warsaw ghetto the numbers are about 100 000.What are numbers for Gaza? Is there any massive deportations of the inhabitants from the Gaza ghetto to an extermination camp? Operation Reinhard....in 2 months,about 254,000 ghetto residents were sent to Treblinka and murdered.What are your numbers for Palestinians from Gaza? You are a sick person who should seek professional medical attention immediately because antisemitism is eating you from inside. You will go until tarnish memory of those killed in Warsaw ghetto for your little jihad against Israel and to prove that Gazans suffering is not different from those in Warsaw ghetto. What a shame to compare holocaust to Gaza! Well,not for you.

  • 115. 0 0
    RE: Persian Kitty
    • Nemesis
    • 03.10.09
    • 03:13

    I must agree with Teacher/Instruct.. I have never noticed any anti-semetic comments in her posts. She doesn't agree with some of Israel's policies,but that doesn't make her a Jew hater. She is pro Iran,because that's where she's from...understandable..she is also against the current Iranian regime.. all in all,she sounds like a sensible person... Besides,I always have liked kittys...

  • 114. 0 0
    occupation in Gaza or Warsaw in WW2
    • American in NY
    • 03.10.09
    • 02:02

    The Warsaw ghetto was not occupied by the Nazis either. The occupants of the Warsaw ghetto refused to be content with their freedom allowed to them on their paradise defined the borders of the ghetto. This freedom was controlled by the Nazis; who may enter or leave. What material, food, fuel, medicine, etc. may be brought into their paradise. Other than that there was complete freedom. No occupation, no targeted executions, independence and sovereignty. Essentially identical and I do agree that neither Gaza nor the Warsaw ghetto were occupied.

  • 113. 0 0
    Obama just had his claw removed
    • Malach HaMavet
    • 03.10.09
    • 01:53

    International Olympic Committee didn't award 2016 games to his beloved Chicago And he pissed away a measly couple of million dollars for flight expenses for himself and Michelle, plus their contingent What the hell, it's not his money, it belongs to the suckers who elected him

  • 112. 0 0
    Roman re.. Persian Kitty
    • The Teacher/Instruct
    • 02.10.09
    • 21:29

    Roman, re. Persian Kitty, Roman. I had to read your post twice. But really, I couldn't understand from where you found such negative views about Persian Kitty ! I see her as a very intelligent person,with no lack of humour now & again ! Where did you get the idea that she's anti....! I hope we'll hear more of Kitty from time to time !

  • 111. 0 0
    Roman
    • Persian Kitty
    • 02.10.09
    • 16:10

    Show me one post of mine with antisemitism in it. I dare you. Because there isn't one. I may disagree with some israeli policies (as I do with many iranian policiies and some US policies) but that doesn't make me an antisemite. I find your indiscriminate use of the term in poor taste and a disservice to the jewish people who perished during the holocaust. And you quote HIS FOREIGN MINISTRY to justify your argument!!! Now that's fresh... And please take a look at how you are helping ahmadi by doing what you do.

  • 110. 0 0
    Roman
    • Persian Kitty
    • 02.10.09
    • 16:09

    Show me one post of mine with antisemitism in it. I dare you. Because there isn't one. I may disagree with some israeli policies (as I do with many iranian policiies and some US policies) but that doesn't make me an antisemite. I find your indiscriminate use of the term in poor taste and a disservice to the jewish people who perished during the holocaust. And you quote HIS FOREIGN MINISTRY to justify your argument!!! Now that's fresh... And please take a look at how you are helping ahmadi by doing what you do.

  • 109. 0 0
    Hi Mark Lincoln. Does Iran have a nuclear weapon?
    • Maureen Ann
    • 02.10.09
    • 09:26

    If not, it has broken no treaty, has it? It is America and Israel who have brought trouble upon themselves for being warmongers and hoarders of nuclear WMD = double standards. Not only has America (USrael) brought trouble (financially and security) by practicing double standards, upon itself, it has dragged Australia and other allies into the quagmire of its imperialist wars!

  • 108. 0 0
    #92 But note the slick sleight-of-hand, BBSNews (2nd try)
    • Johnboy
    • 02.10.09
    • 09:00

    Follow the pea, don't look at the hands..... BS: "not a soldier in there from IDF" Note that Big Sur is talking there about the ISRAEL Defense Forces. BS: "Judea and Samaria were Jewish Long before trans Jordan took it" Q: So where did the word "Israel" go? A: Big Sur replaced it with "Jewish". BS: "it was Occupied for many years by Jordan, not Israel" Q: Huh? What just happened to "Jewish"? A: Gone, so that Big Sur can put "Israel" back in. BS: "you would find the Judean Samrian area was Jewish way before anyone else knew it was there." Q: Where'd the word "Israel" go now?!?!? A: Big Sur took it out again, replacing it with "Jewish". Again. Big Sur is attempting a magician's sleight-of-hand, hoping that nobody notices the "now you see it, now you don't" trick. It's cheap when a magician does it. It's just tacky when Big Sur does it.

  • 107. 0 0
    Israel's "best hope"
    • Frank
    • 02.10.09
    • 08:09

    Who are you kidding? Israel's only and "best hope" is for the U.S. to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities, as Obama PROMISED in his campaign. American Jews should be pressing for that (despite the constant anti-Israel propaganda that Ha'aretz has been bombarding America with for years undermining support for Israel.) OK, so much for "hope". Israel's best "realistic" hope is to bomb Iran.

  • 106. 0 0
    # 100 Obama is a pussy-cat.
    • Sarah
    • 02.10.09
    • 06:25

    You have to believe,this President has even less guts than Jimmy Carter.

  • 105. 0 0
    Persian Kitty to Watcher
    • Roman
    • 02.10.09
    • 05:19

    You may be opposed to Ahmadinejad,but your regular antisemitic rant suggests that you are not someone who can be trusted so I prefer to rely on others sources when talking about Ahmadinejad's wipping Israel off the map. Mahir al-Tahir,representative of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine,says Palestinians share the sentiment of Iran's president that Israel should be "wiped off the map," or at the very least, moved to Europe. Was he also unable to find a Farsi interpreter? Even translators in Tehran who work for the president's office and the foreign ministry disagree with you Persian Kitty.All official translations of Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement, including a description of it on his Web site (www.president.ir/eng/ *Was removed*), refer to wiping Israel away. Sohrab Mahdavi, one of Iran's most prominent translators, and Siamak Namazi, managing director of a Tehran consulting firm, who is bilingual, both say "wipe off" or "wipe away" is more accurate than "vanish" because the Persian verb is active and transitive. Etc,etc. You see?If we want to know the truth,we have to 'bypass' people like yourself kitty.

  • 104. 0 0
    If the censors will allow it
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 02.10.09
    • 04:28

    I have EVERY reason to presume that Israel has nuclear weapons. This is despite the fact that Israel has not tested a weapon within it's boarders, and has not announce it's possession of nuclear weapons. My assessment is based upon my own inspection of evidence, including overhead photography, of the Dimona complex and open source material. Has the possession of weapons it does not affirm or deny, been a detriment to peace in the region? No, it removed any question of Arab states again attacking Israel. Has Israel brandished it's undeclared weapons? No. For the obvious reason. The nuclear option exists only for a nation under dire threat or nuclear attack.

  • 103. 0 0
    Tony Silver - it is NOT a double standard
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 02.10.09
    • 04:22

    "When is ISRAEL going to acknowledge it HAS THE NUCLEAR WEAPON?" - Tony Silver When the USA releases it from the promise given 40 years ago to NOT claim to have nuclear weapons. "And that it used URANIUM in south Lebanon attack?" - Tony It does not seem to have used 'uranium' beyond the content of certain types of weapons supplied mostly by the USA. In any case the Uranium was NOT fissile material, but Depleted Uranium. DUI is a toxic threat, but not a nuclear weapon. "ISRAEL HAS HAD A NUCLEAR MONOPOLY in the region for several decades." - Tony The US had nuclear weapons in the region over a decade before any other state. "Israel is in exactly the same position as Iran on non-declaration of nuclear sites . . " -Tony Iran DID sign the NPT, and it had subscribed to the Additional Protocols, and it VIOLATED the NPT. Iran brought this problem upon itself, and it could eliminating the problem any time it choses. It need only to stop stalling and give the IAEA EVERYTHING it wants.

  • 102. 0 0
    JOHN Why is Islamic bomb not mentioned.Pakistan attacked Israel
    • PETER SM
    • 02.10.09
    • 04:17

    by sending its pilots to fight for their umma brothers and killed Israeli pilots. No hand wringing by the Iranian cheer squad there is there?

  • 101. 0 0
    Persian Kitty - my friend Mo
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 02.10.09
    • 04:13

    My friend is no friend of the Ayatollahs. He tells me that what the Giant Mouth of Tehran, Ahmadinejad, has claimed is that Israel will go away, not that it must be destroyed. Bad translation, or malevolent translation, the argument that he has repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel seems a bit hyped at best. Ahmadinejad is a rather disgusting example of politician. Like Netanyahu he uses the 'threat' to justify his existence and position. As Mo is a naive Farsi speaker, and a man whom loathes the Ayatollahs, tells me that AN uses language far short of the apocalyptic translations published in Israel, I have to favor Mo's version. As in my youth, a slogan like 'we will bury you' above a photo of N. Krushchev had a lot more impact than the more correct translation 'in the economic struggle we will stuff you down the shit hole!" Was the quote: Propaganda . . . is. . . . good. Or did it read: PROPAGANDA is crap and IS noGOOD. I think the latter.

  • 100. 0 0
    Counting Atoms
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 02.10.09
    • 04:03

    The IAEA is VERY good at counting atoms. Often they detect just a few atoms in swipe of a surface. The 'problem' is to ensure that Iran come to possess nuclear weapons. Iran CLEARLY has the technology to produce nuclear weapons. The ONLY way to prevent Iran from doing so is to ensure that it is under the Additional Protocols, and thus that inspectors have free access for snap inspections of any suspect site and total access to anyone deemed a possible participant in a weapons program. Such a situation will not ensure that Iran does not develop weapons, but it will ensure that the world has maximum warning that it IS developing weapons. An attack would little impair such a program IF it exists, but it would ensure that Iran would leave the NPT. In which there is no way they could be prevented from developing nuclear weapons, and no way to know what the program had achieved. Before one goes to war, one must have a clear concept of the post-war situation desired.

  • 99. 0 0
    Ibsen - but would we not both feel better?
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 02.10.09
    • 03:54

    I for one would be delighted to see Iran back under the Additional Protocols. I would rather there not be an Iran with nuclear weapons. While Iran did no wrong under the NPT by the timing of it's announcement of the Qom plant, it remains in violation about several scientists it wishes to interview and providing all documentation requested by the IAEA. Iran would be most wise to stop the stalling and out the facts. My personal take is that Iran had very limited exploration of a bomb program in the late 1980s and into the 1990s, and again from early 2001 to late 2003. There is no evidence that either period of investigation went beyond preliminary exploration.

  • 98. 0 0
    And who could blame them?
    • jim the mechanic
    • 02.10.09
    • 03:37

    Nothing else has worked in the past in keeping the west from meddling and invading. We are still paying for the insane US coupe that put the Shah in power! Now the unending rhettoric of sanctions, pre emptive air strikes by the IDF, and meddling in elections and who should run the country. Then to top it off the invasion and occupation of Afganistan and Iraq both of whom are on its borders. But I guess they are one country unlike Israel that isn't allowed to "DEFEND" itself.....stop this insane game of chicken we are all in the same vehicle "earth"!.......Peace Ever?

  • 97. 0 0
    Israel must act prudently
    • Richard
    • 02.10.09
    • 03:11

    Israel must act prudently, that is to say DESTROY THE NUCLEAR FACILITIES AT IRAN. Now Obama have given two weeks more to Iran, they are apparently shocked by the Iranian trick of the secret plant (with possible undergrounds military facilities), but if they continue to bring Iran more time for her bomb, then DEFEND YOURSELVES ISRAELIS.

  • 96. 0 0
    True American exaggerating again? #48
    • Palestinian Prince
    • 02.10.09
    • 03:08

    You indicate that Ahmadinajad stated "Islam is ready to rule the world with the flag of Islam flying above the White House." Never has he uttered that quote in public. That sounds like a statement from Bin Laden or other Sunni extremist groups. If you're going to quote, quote appropriately. In fact, I dare you to find me any quote where Ahmadinejad made any threat that he would attack the U.S? You won't. You like most pro Israeli, Israeli firsters, etc want to make up any myth to drag the United States into a war against Iran on Israel's behalf. Guess what, people are waking up and realizing we're stretched way too thin. Israel has the capability to destroy Iran so what is it waiting for? I'm going to assume Iran's response maybe, but who knows.

  • 95. 0 0
    spineless jelly fish
    • vivian lewis
    • 02.10.09
    • 02:38

    In 2005 Bush said the US would not alow a nuclear Iran.Now its almost 2010 and Iran almost has the bomb.With such a threat looming its clear the US has no other choice but to disarm Iran.The US is now seen as a cowardly nation that cant be relied on.

  • 94. 0 0
    #12 You astound, BEN JABO
    • Johnboy
    • 02.10.09
    • 02:33

    BJ: "Israel didn`t invade it`s neighbors, quite the opposite, starting with 1948, 1956, 1967 & 1973." 1948: Arab armies advanced into the "arab partition" because the Haganah was already invading that "arab partition". 1956: The IDF launched an armoured offensive into the Sinai Desert, and you are claiming that ISN'T an Israeli invasion of Egyptian soil? 1967: The IDF launched an armoured offensive into Sinai, West Bank and Golan, and you still claim that ISN'T an Israeli invasion of foreign soil? 1973: BEN, BEN, BEN. Both Egypt and Syria were fighting on..... Egyptian and Syrian soil. BJ: "May I suggest you research 'The Timelines Israel Arab Conflict', " BEN, at *best* that allows you to claim justification for WHY Israel invaded the neighbours, but it doesn't "prove" that Israel DIDN'T invade. Clearly Israel did invade neighbouring territory in 1948, 1956 and 1967. Not to mention 1982 and 2006.

  • 93. 0 0
    Watcher
    • Persian Kitty
    • 02.10.09
    • 01:37

    You know what I find ironic? The fact that you tell so & so about Iran's declaration of 'destroying israel' and 'this and that'..... Sir/Madame, let ME (the Persian Warrior of ALL TIMES) tell you that AN never said that (knowing Farsi!!) -- eventhough, as opposed to him as I find myself to be, I still have to beleive that....

  • 92. 0 0
    big sur's chronic idiocy exposed yet again...
    • BBSNews
    • 01.10.09
    • 22:51

    ...it does not matter what I put in this space, tomorrow you will still lie and again try and claim Gaza is not occupied. Nevertheless, see page 85 of the Goldstone Report, refer to paragraph 276: "276. Israel has without doubt at all times relevant to the mandate of the Mission exercised effective control over the Gaza Strip. The Mission is of the view that the circumstances of this control establish that the Gaza Strip remains occupied by Israel. The provisions of the Fourth Geneva Convention therefore apply at all relevant times with regard to the obligations of Israel towards the population of the Gaza Strip." Israel still occupies Gaza, in fact, that's why Israel is accused of an ongoing crime against humanity; The Gaza siege.

  • 91. 0 0
    Jacob Blues making it up as you go #72/74
    • ibsen
    • 01.10.09
    • 22:49

    1.Iran revealed Qum before the US made any comment. 2. The plant is not operational so Iran were not obliged 'legally' to inform the IAEA any earlier than they did. 3. Iran informed on Qum. Just in case you still didn't get it. Here you go completely off beam once again: "As for the NIE estimate, the new evidence from Qum shows that the (US, not IAEA) paper was either off the mark, or political." WRONG. As Mark Lincoln has explained, enrichment is allowed under NPT, a position Iran has long been adamant about. NOTHING NEW THERE! Its location is irrelevant. How is that proof that it is intended for nuclear weapons grade Uranium rather than simply being in a secure site?! Had they have gone operational without informing the IAEA, THEN you would have a valid point. As for your contention on illegality of Qum. It had earlier pledged to inform the IAEA of its intentions to build any new enrichment facilities but had long renounced its intention to do so. It had never ratified,[in the same way Israel and the US never ratified the Rome treaty on the International Criminal Court] so it was entirely a legal and predictable that Iran would not have given such early notice. "Between the end of 2004 and early 2007, Iran VOLUNTARILY complied with an additional protocol (Code 3.1) that was NEVER RATIFIED and never became a legal part of the safeguards agreement. The additional protocol would have required Iran to notify the IAEA prior to beginning construction of a new facility, whereas the safeguards agreement in force requires notification prior to completion of a new facility. Iran ceased its voluntary compliance with the unratified additional protocol in March 2007, most likely because of the American and Israeli misrepresentations of Iran?s existing facilities and military threats against them. " Paul Craig Roberts former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the Reagan administration. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton admitted on Sunday that Iran could not produce nuclear weapons at Natanz precisely because it is being inspected. Qum will be inspected so the same restriction will apply.

  • 90. 0 0
    Samuel Smith #80
    • ibsen
    • 01.10.09
    • 22:47

    Telegraph indeed. So what? A nuclear enrichment plant is both legal and necessary if you intend enriching Uranium.! Did you not know? Here's another story from your Telegraph. Coughlin published a commentary, which began: "For anyone attempting to find evidence to justify the war in Iraq, the discovery of a document that directly links Mohammed Atta, the al-Qaeda mastermind of the September 11 attacks, with the Baghdad training camp of Abu Nidal, the infamous Palestinian terrorist, appears almost too good to be true. In the same issue of the Telegraph, was the scoop on Niger linking Iraq with attempts to procure nuclear weapons. A claim supported by British Intelligence at the time according to your Telegraph. Both stories later found to be false. The Niger story manufactured with forged documents from western intelligence agencies. You are as gullible as Jacob. Fooled you once fooled you twice seems to apply to you and he both.

  • 89. 0 0
    It is double standard policy
    • Tony Silver
    • 01.10.09
    • 22:42

    When is ISRAEL going to acknowledge it HAS THE NUCLEAR WEAPON? And that it used URANIUM in south Lebanon attack?. Finally when this TERRORIST STATE will open its plants to INTERNATIONAL INSEPECTION?. ISRAEL CAN NOT continue to act as a vandals defying the international legality. ISRAEL HAS HAD A NUCLEAR MONOPOLY in the region for several decades. You cannot hide or ignore the truth, the double standards, of Israel's nuclear capability forever. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Iran has not signed the Addional Protocol, so it is in its right not to abide with that. By a similar logic, Israel has not signed the NPT, so they are allowed to have nuclear weapons. You can't have it both ways. If Israel is not bound by treaties it did not sign, neither is Iran. Do as you would have others do unto you. Israel is in exactly the same position as Iran on non-declaration of nuclear sites, so what is good for the goose....

  • 88. 0 0
    Hey Professor, what's stopping you from pressing the button then?
    • Palestinian Prince
    • 01.10.09
    • 20:39

    All Israel does is say we're gonna hit them, we're gonna hit them, come on America you better do something before we hit them. Give me a break. Just do it and get it over with. It's funny that Israel is second guessing herself so much when if Hamas or Hizbollah kidnap or shoot a rocket into Israel, Israel attacks instinctively. I know, I know, Israel has to plan a strategic strike. They've had how many years? I personally think Israel has fears because Iran is a sovereign nation and has the ability to give Israel more than a bloody nose. Not saying Iran would defeat Israel, but they would be able to hurt it, wayyyy more than Saddam's useless scuds.

  • 87. 0 0
    Rational thought Bill, but one checker move short
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 20:18

    There is a scene in the Kevin Costner movie "13 Days" which depicted the Cuban Missile Crisis where Pres. Kennedy's cabinet runs through a 'what if' list. If the US did something the Russian reaction would be what, then the US reaction would be what. At a certain point, the men in the room realized that if the crisis hit the point of a nuclear exchange, then there were no more moves for anyone. The object, is to figure out how to keep Iran from going nuclear without resorting to an exchange of WMD's, and indeed, the less physical confrontation required, the better for everyone, because a launch certainly doesn't solve anything.

  • 86. 0 0
    America and it's Failure
    • Paul
    • 01.10.09
    • 19:47

    It is difficult to read most of the completely ignorant American writers whose knowledge of politics and world history is pretty much on par with Sarah Palin. Israel, like the rest of the world knows that US power has largely waned and that the issues regarding containing Persian imperial goals are tied mostly to Chinese and Russian foreign policy and how to work with the Europeans on these geopolitical matters. My fellow American commentators can't even figure out that the banking and insurance companies have bankrupted the USA so don't expect too much from here as far as intelligence.

  • 85. 0 0
    Rational Thought
    • Bill
    • 01.10.09
    • 19:35

    1. If Mexico sent forces to Canada to attack the United States, what would happen? 2. If the Mexican government threated to kill every American while shooting across the Texan border, what would happen? 3. If Mexico started developing a nuclear weapon, what would happen? 4. If Mexico stated that once they have a nuclear weapon they would use it to attack and destroy American cities, what would happen? The United States would respond with force and would not ask for permission for forgiveness afterward. Israel should strike Iran now. If Iran retaliates Istrael should respond with nuclear weapons. Problem solved.

  • 84. 0 0
    Its Afghanistan stu... !!!
    • Iranian-american
    • 01.10.09
    • 19:34

    Look guys. Israel is full of hot air. The timw was ripe in July for some action by Israel and not a word came out I have never seen so little in Israeli press about Iran nukes than in July and August of this year. Now the hot air is back. There is a limit on how much one can fool others. Iran hold the USA's balls in its hands. Its been squeezing them via Afghanistan. Israel has lost its strategic position. It better start learning how to act like a "normal" nation.

  • 83. 0 0
    I think a far cry from perfect Mark of L
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 19:17

    The United States stepped into an ongoing global conflict that included a rampant escalation in Japanese militarization after the attack on Pearl Harbor. In contrast to that Israel has not threatened Iran, and is not attempting to enter into a global conflict. Rather, during the past decade, Israel has retreated from Lebanon and Gaza, and has spent 16 years trying to forge a peace with the Palestinians. Despite that, Iran repeatedly calls for the destruction of Israel and places two extremist proxy armies on its border. Given that background, plus the clandestine nature of Iran's nuclear plans, Israel has every reason to weigh the risks of an Iranian nuclear weapons attempt. Tojo was trying to build an Empire, Israel is trying to avoid becoming road kill.

  • 82. 0 0
    In Re David
    • Don Hillier
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:53

    David, to be polite, I would like to know where you spent the recent past(last 30 years)? You seem to imply this conflict is Israel's fault. By extension, Iran must not be. Oh, I get it, you're pro militant islamist. Only answer it can be. Move to Iran to learn the error of your ways.

  • 81. 0 0
    Jacob Blues - No Parallel is Perfect
    • Mark of Lewiston
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:48

    No historical parallel is perfect. But this is closer if you look. Japan had already invaded and occupied China and Korea and SE Asia. And the US was screaming at them and threatening them and cutting off their access to resources like iron and petroleum in that day's version of painful economic sanctions. The US simply just wouldn't recognize their hegemony over what they thought of their historical rights. And the US had an army of volunteers in China and another in Burma fighting against the Japanese, bombing them, even. Remember the Flying Tigers? We also were occupying the Philippines which Japan thought of as hers by right. No historical parallel is perfect, but this one's uncanny. Both sides need to step back from this brink.

  • 80. 0 0
    No. 67 Ibsen
    • Samuel Smith
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:47

    Ibsen in your rush to attack Jacob Blues and belittle his posts by claiming there is no evidence of Iran's desire to create Nuclear Weapons and citing the, now discredited, NIE report. I can only assume that either you are not aware, or ignore because they contradict you,the recent reports from UK's SIS (MI6) as reported in the media recently. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/6231906/Iranian-nuclear-site-has-been-under-surveillance-since-2006.html But I suppose like the other apologists for the Fascist Mullahs regime in Tehran you wouldn't want to let the truth and facts get in the way of your prejudices. Before you or one of your ilk comes back about Iraq let me remind you that SIS (MI6) did NOT believe Saddam had WMD.

  • 79. 0 0
    Beyond the analysis of Profesor Beres
    • Dr. Gadi Eshel
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:43

    Beyond this brilliant analysis, there still hovers the underlying question: is Barack Hussein Obama really that naive? That gullible? or, rather, isn't his professed effort to impose sanctions on the openly genocidal regime of Iran, just a baloney? Isn't it just façade, to enable him wash his hands off with professed sorrow and helplessness, as though he really did his utmost to prevent Iran from getting the bomb, but couldn't help it? And, above all, we have to remember, both Obama and Iran do share a common goal. A goal that had become a prime hallmark in Obama's global policy: dismantle Jewish "settlements" in the heartland of Eretz-Yissra'el - Judea and Samaria, and create a "Judenrein" zone therein!

  • 78. 0 0
    bob-how one sided can your history be?
    • sani
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:43

    the nation U.S that used nukes ended the six bloodiest years humanity has ever known.they did so after paying huge price i mean blood not money still they knew that JAPAN WILL NEVER SURRENDER so they bombed a city still the japanese did not surrender.After the second bomb Japan surrendered.so lets imagine the war at the pacific would have been dragged for 5 years more would Japan be able to recover and be the eonomic force it is today.How many more young american australian and japanese life would have been lost in the fights on obscure beaches of the pacific.you can not say the decision to nuke Japan was bad without recognising what were the alternatives.you say nations were attacked and oppress but as far as i know the oppression by the japanese ,germans,soviets was the opression you choose not to mention,western europe under the "oppression" of the gringos did very well for itself and so did Japan.but you outdid yourself "the nation which opposes oppression" do you mean iran??

  • 77. 0 0
    nuclear weapons
    • bob
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:42

    Israel should come clean about its own nuclear weapons, invite inspections and then we can talk about other nations in the middle east which might get them.

  • 76. 0 0
    Why would Iran want to nuke Israel?
    • Watcher
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:31

    The answer to this is simple, Sarah. Just listen to what the Iranian leadership says. Take them at their word. Don't try to rationalize it. Don't try to look at it symbolically. Take what they say literally. The leadership of Iran has said time and time again that Israel is a cancer in the Middle East that must be destroyed. That Israel must be wiped off the map. That the Jews must be driven into the Sea. And that, Allah willing, Iran will do these things. How many times and in how many ways must they state their intentions before the world chooses to listen to them and take them at their word?

  • 75. 0 0
    Why would Iran nuke Israel? Why would Iran
    • Josiah J. Ben David
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:30

    threaten to wipe them off the map? If someone threatened you why wouldn't you take it seriously, especially if it were a little crazy man like Ahmadinejad? Why would Iran nuke Israel? That is a stupid and naive question. The answer goes to the root of their religious fanaticism and when it comes to religious fanaticism all logic goes out the window !

  • 74. 0 0
    As for the NPT treaty ibsen, try reading Mohammed elBaridei's
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:25

    when he declared Iran's actions at the Qom plant illegal. As for the announcement of its intent you are wrong, Iran must announce its activities when it begins them, not just as its about to light up its operations. That Iran has hidden its activities and militarized them (the Qom facilities are in the middle of a Revolutionary Guard military base), lends weight to the argument that Iran is not pursuing a civilian nuclear power program. Iran has not come to the IAEA in any of these situations, but only post-exposure shown them to the IAEA. That too erodes their credibility. While Mark Lincoln puts his trust in the capabilities of the IAEA, the group has yet to find any of the Iranian activities, the Syrian nuclear plans, or Libyan, or Pakistani, or Indian. Not a great track record.

  • 73. 0 0
  • 72. 0 0
    Of course Ibsen, which is why Israel new about the plant in Qom
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:20

    several years ago (along with the US, UK, and France). This is what's publicly known today. Which raises the question of what else hasn't Iran's government shown the world that our government's already know about. As for Israel's request and dry runs. Yes, that's called preparation for providing the government with options should diplomacy leave Iran with the capability to develop nuclear weapons. Usually, ones prepares before the imminent need. As for the NIE estimate, the new evidence from Qum shows that the (US, not IAEA) paper was either off the mark, or political. No, there were no Iraqi WMD's. But to declare that Iran's actions are fantasy, in the face of the reality of Natanz and Qum is an attempt to make Alice's jump down the rabbit hole real.

  • 71. 0 0
    Moreover Mark of Lewiston, what we see are people trying to turn
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:14

    PM Netanyahu into Tojo, but Major T. J. "King" Kong. Wild Cowboy or Imperial warlord. Reality has proven otherwise. The sad reality is Iran has put two extremist proxy armies on Israel's border. Each group holds to the philosophy of wiping Israel off the map and killing its Jewish population. Iran's government holds the same position, despite its geographic distance.

  • 70. 0 0
    Israel just doesn't get it!
    • David
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:11

    Americans are tired of this little spoiled entity called Israel and its blackmailing of America. There will not be a second Iraq, Bush time is over.

  • 69. 0 0
    Israeli muscle flexing
    • perfessor
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:05

    Israel should do some hi profile hi tech rocketry, like launch satellites, or shoot rockets far distances to give the Iranians a clear picture of what they can expect should they stumble into irrationality. Maybe a hydrogen bomb detonated deep underground or in space. One threat deserves a greater threat. Sorry that the discussion has turned to this level, but that's where it's at.

  • 68. 0 0
    Ok Mark of Lewiston, answer me this history question
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 18:04

    How often did the US threaten to wipe Japan off the map prior to Dec 7, 1941? During the period of Tojo's concern, what was Imperial Japan preparing to do? If I remember correctly, it included the invasion of China, Korea, the Philippenes and other islands around Japan. Prior to Japan's actions on Pearl Harbor, what active diplomacy did it take to push for a peaceful resolution between itself and the US / and/or neighbors? Israel's political and military leaders know full well the limitations of their armed forces and the physical challenges and risks that an attack on Iran entail, which is why they have pushed for a for a legitimate diplomatic solution, notably one that includes the world's powers. The fact remains, that without a border dispute, or regional interests that conflict, Iran has spent 30 years declaring as a goal, the desire to wipe Israel off the map. The push for a nuclear weapon is a concern taken with Iran's other words and deeds.

  • 67. 0 0
    #54 Jacob Blues nonsense encore
    • ibsen
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:58

    "The fact is, Israel has done everything possible to push a global diplomatic solution." Is Jacob Blues aware that G Bush turned down Israel's request for Bunker busting bombs last year? Does he not remember Israel's massive air borne excerise meant to simulate attack against Iran, or any number of comments threatening Iran with military action by Netanyahu and other senior ministers? "It has pushed for the IAEA to take action against Iran`s path of militarization." What are you talking about-"pushed"? It has provided no proof of any nuclear militarization program or activities. No evidence of any value whatsoever for the IAEA to draw any conclusions from. Hence the NIE estimate. Hence the IAEA's position. Similar to its position prior to the WMD bs in Iraq. Where Israel and the US admin assessed that Iraq did have such weapons and bemoaned the UN inspectors inability to find them regardless of 'their own' inability to come up wth any proof of WMD. Groundhog day? Only an imbecile makes the same stupid arguments over and over without learning from past mistakes. Only a warmonger gets angry when others don't respond to their nonexistant evidence.

  • 66. 0 0
    Iran shoul have bomb?
    • Don Hillier
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:56

    Palestinians voted a terrorist organisation as their gov't. Israel needs the bomb to rid themselves of a terrorist society. Israel has NEVER been the aggressor in any of the conflicts with arabs. The arabs have instigated every action taken by Israel...fortunately the good guy won(Israel). As to Israel using atomic weapons, I am without doubt it will happen because of attack by terrorist states and its very survival is at risk. People, are you blind, or just plain stupid? Israel is the good guy, read your history.

  • 65. 0 0
    Israel's attitude toward Iran changed once Iran became a threat
    • Raymond in DC
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:53

    Israel has no underlying grievance against Iran beyond the threat it presents. And Iran has no claims against Israel. Yet today Iran threatens Israel, so the latter responds accordingly. It wasn't always so. The Jewish and Persian peoples have a relationship going back some 2,500 years. (A shrine in Hamdan holds the reputed graves of Esther and Mordecai from the Purim story.) Until the "Islamic Revolution" in 1979, Israel and Iran worked together. I was in Iran in 1976, even visiting the Israeli station for a Sukkot holiday gathering with my Jewish hosts. After the "revolution" Israelis had to flee; that station was seized and handed to the PLO. This is a fight driven only by those intent on turning Iran into the regional superpower and Islamic fanatics who can't tolerate a Jewish state within the Islamic waqf. Get rid of them and their operatives (the IRGC and Basji) and the dispute is history.

  • 64. 0 0
    Washington & Others.......
    • The Teacher/Instruct
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:52

    Washington & others, Nothing will come out with talking with Iran. Except......Talking. And who is better qualifed than Obama ? None ! He's like a pulpit preacher. He thinks he's done his job. He says to himself,who else can talk like me ? Who ? He goes Home. In this case the White House,looks into the mirror,& pats himsel on the back ! A do it yourself job !

  • 63. 0 0
    Iranian Nuclear Bomb
    • Don Hillier
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:46

    Islamists do not, nor will they ever accept Israels right to exist. They have repeatedly stated that Israel must "be wiped from the face of the earth". They have also stated that Islam is the only faith to be practiced, and all non believers will have to convert to avoid death. They have shown consistently that they are liars, murderers, and thieves. A deal cannot be made with these people. Land for peace is an abject failure. Look at the past people, learn from history. Israels only hope is destroy Irans nuclear capability while it can...hopefully with the U.S. backing them. I'm not optimistic about that. It's ugly, and there is no peaceful way to deal with these people(arabs), except through the sights of a rifle.

  • 62. 0 0
    Jacob Blues - Morphing Bibi into Tojo
    • Mark of Lewiston
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:43

    Beres and Netanyahu still believe in the legitimacy of "anticipatory self-defense" which is a bogus theory. It is the same theory that Tojo used at Pearl Harbor. And three years later, it had terrible consequences for the Japanese. The Iranians don't have to invent the science, technology, or design and engineering. They already have that. Tojo was mistaken in his presumption of the American reaction to Pearl Harbor. A divided and internally squabbling US was melded into a determined and united for with a terrible resolve. Pulling a Pearl Harbor if fraught with peril for Israel.

  • 61. 0 0
    #44 Honor and Pride
    • Big Sur
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:13

    What is so Honorable about continuing to deny the Holocaust and repeatedly saying to the west anything not Jihad will be eventually destroyed. Your Idea of Honor is warped man

  • 60. 0 0
    They want the bomb
    • White Russian
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:12

    They want the bomb, alright, and why shouldn't they with Israels daily sabre-rattling and UNREGULATED NUCLEAR WEAPONS PROGRAM? They don't just want it, they need it, and will get it whether you like it or not...if they don't already have it! Go ahead Israel, make their day!

  • 59. 0 0
    Beres' advice is reckless
    • Roo
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:11

    Not only does he favour an 'attempt' at derailing Iran's nuclear ambitions by destroying nuclear installations with inevitable nuclear fallout, potentially affecting millions of Iranian civilians and without having high confidence of stopping nuclear weaponisation, [possibly even increasing the momentum toward such weaponisation], but this fanatic denigrates the idea of a Palestinian state, full stop. The perfect storm. Or recipe for never ending conflict in the region. This double edged plea for eternal war by the writer will have appeal primarily to fundamentalists both in Israel and the US, but would rightly alarm most rational creatures. The premise is born of vile racism against all her neighbours. Anyone who opposes Israeli policy toward the Palestinians must want to destroy Israel by definition.[ A weak and obviously untested assumption.] Therefore justifying a recalcitrant and aggressive stance as a matter of course. How ironic that Israel who has fought so hard to cultivate the image of a mad dog amongst her neighbours and indigenous Palestinian population, too dangerous to bother with and too difficult to predict, inimical to rationality, should decide policy by contemplating whether Iran might "remain rational".

  • 58. 0 0
    #23 someone should tell Khald that Iran makes threats about destr
    • Big Sur
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:10

    destroying Israel and has no problem in explaining a nuclear annihalation.

  • 57. 0 0
    Jacob Blues nonsense to Mark Lincoln #39
    • ibsen
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:07

    "even though they have been repeatedly caught at building nuclear enrichment facilities...We now publically know of two such sites" JB Seems as if you are completely unaware of what Iran is and is not permitted under the NPT. They are permitted any number of enrichment facilities, not merely one or two. They are obliged to inform the IAEA only before they become active. The IAEA must then be allowed access to them. They have not contravened any legal obligation. Iran may or may not intend to develop nuclear weapons, this is not perfectly clear. What is clear though is that you have little idea as to Iran's obligations under the treaty. Also, ML is correct to point out that as long as the IAEA are aware of functioning enrichment plants they are easy to monitor as long as Iran allows inspections. After any military strikes, monitoring will surely cease.

  • 56. 0 0
    #4 BBS always mentions occupation , of what BBS?
    • Big Sur
    • 01.10.09
    • 17:06

    amazing BBS occupation of what Gaza? not a soldier in there from IDF. in case you were not sure Judea and Samaria were Jewish Long before trans Jordan took it , it was Occupied for many years by Jordan, not Israel. If you used your News Savvy to look closely you would find the Judean Samrian area was Jewish way before anyone else knew it was there.

  • 55. 0 0
    Carol #42 - No one has a right to nuclear weapons
    • Afikoman
    • 01.10.09
    • 16:43

    No nuclear power will grant a right to nuclear weapons to any other country, like power itself it is never given, only taken. The arena of nations is one of power, and Iran is famous for its own unique culture and approach. Who are you Carol to judge either Israel or Iran?

  • 54. 0 0
    Mark Lincoln opening act for Kreskin the Magnificant
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 16:42

    Mark Lincoln digs again for his Israeli war-mongers, and not finding any, has to invent some from his old "W" "neo-con" "vast 'Likud-rightwing' conspiracy" shoebox. The fact is, Israel has done everything possible to push a global diplomatic solution. It has lobbied both the governments in the EU, the United States, and Russia, to the threat it sees from Iran acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities. It has pushed for the IAEA to take action against Iran's path of militarization. Meanwhile, as with any insurance policy, realizing that diplomacy may fail, and still faced with an Iran that has for 30 years denied its legitimate right to exist, and faced with a growing control of Iran's government by its most extreme and militaristic elements, attempts to figure out a way to defend itself should the diplomatic route fail. Of course to Mark, all this is nothing more than Israeli "war-mongering". After all why should we worry when people repeatedly threaten to kill us.

  • 53. 0 0
    Washington gets it
    • Dave Duncan
    • 01.10.09
    • 16:23

    We have been fighting 2 wars for 8 years--we are not going to fight a third--even if it is defending Israel. Thats the problem. Iran gets that in spades. So they are going to delay delay until they have the bomb. But if Israel attacks the problem is they are mostly likely on their own. Whatever happens. Including a massive Arab attack.

  • 52. 0 0
    Sam, how rational is a nation who's leader repeatedly declares
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 16:21

    denial of the Holocaust? How rational is a government that declares there are no homosexuals in Iran? How rational is a government who threatens the elimination of another state that follows the above two statements? Either the Iranians are being led by irrational leaders, or they are led by rational leaders who are becoming increasingly threatening and desire to eliminate the state of Israel. Either way, its a treatening situation for a nation hell bent on acquiring nuclear weapons.

  • 51. 0 0
    No Frietag, Iran is sitting on one the largest known pools of
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 16:18

    oil and natural gas in the world. What Iran has lacked is a refining capability, which was crippled primarly due to previous sanctions. To that end, Iran must import refined gasoline, which the regime heavily subsidizes. And while a disruption in the supplies of Iranian oil and LNG may result in a short-term disruption in their flow of oil, realize that there is currently a glut of oil on the market, with fully loaded, tankers sitting at rest in port because the suppliers don't want to ship product when local user inventories are also full. But this disruption will be much less severe than a hostile Iran with a growing shift towards the hard if not fanatical right.

  • 50. 0 0
    Missing the key difference between past and present
    • Afikoman
    • 01.10.09
    • 16:03

    More important than the bomb is Iran's national pride which would be served by it. If shining on the bomb can be spun into an honorable scenario the bomb can go. New internal Iranian dissatisfaction which is actually threatening the integrity of the Islamic regime may very well result in a climbdown by the mullahs. At the first meeting, Obama's obsession with nuclear disarmament was titillated by the Iranian delegation. When the attention of the 6 powers is then turned to ISrael/Palestine Bibi is well situated to negotiate a deal with the Palestinians because the Western nations will not overly indulge Palestinian fantasies; they want results. But these successes on the international stage are irrelevant to the Obama critics in the USA - for them it is all about the economy and America's future, and many of those critics are favorable to Israel. Obama is being reigned in by circumstance.

  • 49. 0 0
    Israel doesnt get that Iran has the right to protect itself too
    • carol
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:43

    Israel has the bomb so why not Iran, they have every right to it

  • 48. 0 0
    Kingston should check Ahmadinejad's beliefs
    • A TRUE American
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:39

    If you go through his many diatribes, you will note that behind Ahmadinejad's bluster about wiping Israel off the map, is his conviction that the world will soon experience a global conflagration that will usher in the return of the "12th Imam." The alleged "Mahdi" is to bring the end of corruption and conquer the world for allah and the new caliphate. It is his belief that Israel and the Jews are the main obstruction to the goal. As he has stated openly, "Islam is ready to rule the world with the flag of Islam flying above the White House." His belief is that "Allah" will protect Iran from harm. Just rad his writings.

  • 47. 0 0
    It is not true that Washington does'n get it
    • Mark Bernadiner
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:39

    The problem is very simple. America is not as powerful as it looks like. America has very week, incompetent, impotent, and coward political establishment that makes American army powerless. America won no war after WWII. Not mention poor education and ignorance in resent history. They are incapable to understand that 1930s in Europe are copycatted in 2000s ME.

  • 46. 0 0
    Iran running out of oil
    • Freitag
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:27

    Iran needs nuclear power because oil is a limited resource necessary for export. Another attack on oil producing nation will be a disaster for the world. Washington gets it. Israel just wants to bomb another neighbour.

  • 45. 0 0
    Sarah Kingston doesn't get it either
    • Joe Sittizen
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:23

    Iran will nuke Israel because they have said several times that that is what they want to do and are going to do. Why would Iran nuke Israel? Because nuking Israel would place Iran at the top of the radicalized Islamic world. They will be the leaders who will then face down Europe and America, while trading oil to China for advanced weapons. We're not going to sit idly by while armchair amateurs like Sarah Kingston chirp like little Chamberlains.

  • 44. 0 0
    Iran should have the bomb- to deter Israel
    • Honor and Pride
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:15

    from annihilating the palestinians

  • 43. 0 0
    Iran Needs The Bomb So It Can Continue Being Bombastic
    • Lavi
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:14

    Iran, the overzealous convert to Islam, would like to continue the earlier Mohammedan inspired conquest which led to the establishment of an Islamic Empire that exuded international prestige and recognition, not the sorry state of affairs where lowly unbelievers and infidels alone have that center stage and limelight.

  • 42. 0 0
    @3 - exactly
    • Xmagine
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:13

    @3 - exactly. In that light, who are Israel to say who can and cannot have the bomb. Talk about a one-sided approach. The other point is that Washington is not as naive as the article author would have us all believe. So Israel, stop warmongering and leave those who prefer other options to get on with pursuing those. Any outcome not only affects you, but does too all countries in the ME.

  • 41. 0 0
    AS MUCH AS ISRAEL DID
    • good guy
    • 01.10.09
    • 15:05

    How many did Israel own ? why it is ok for you to have one and non for the others ? give me some moral high hourse rubbish that you are civil and the others are just savages ? you do not initiate wars, you do not bomb other countries, you do not threat to bomb other countries ?

  • 40. 0 0
    Interesting article in Foreign Affairs about the state of Iran's
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 14:58

    governing power structure, and how it has changed over the past decade. Letter From Tehran: Iran's New Hard-Liners Who Is in Control of the Islamic Republic? Jerry Guo JERRY GUO was an analyst in an Iranian investment bank in Tehran. The headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) are in a European-style palace, replete with Greek columns and a grand staircase, in the eastern suburbs of Tehran. From here, the IRGC orchestrated the crackdown that followed Iran's disputed presidential vote in June, beating protestors on the street and torturing those behind bars. More ominously, the IGRC and other extreme hard-liners have sidelined fellow conservatives in the Iranian government, carving out their own power base in a regime that is becoming increasingly insular, reactionary, and violent. www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/letter-from-tehran-irans-new-hard-liners

  • 39. 0 0
    Mark Lincoln providing darkness in the night
    • Jacob Blues
    • 01.10.09
    • 14:55

    So far, Mark Lincoln has been proven wrong on every turn of the nuclear question. With Syria, he repeatedly ran into his wall of denial that the Assad government was building a clandestine reactor, even as the Syrian government bulldozed the site, placed a military base on top, and repeatedly refused the IAEA access. His repeated stance on Iran is that they are being forthright and honest, even though they have been repeatedly caught at building nuclear enrichment facilities, including on Revolutionary Guard bases. We now publically know of two such sites, with questions of where others might be. To date, the IAEA's record of finding and stopping such activity is perfect...ZERO! Yet, Mark Lincoln's only response is that we should trust Iran's intentions and trust the IAEA's capabilities. Trust is earned, and to date, that trust hasn't been earned. Absence of a credible Iranian government, a prudent man takes precautions, especially in the face of a nuclear threat.

  • 38. 0 0
    What is clear, is that the American Israeli
    • Sam
    • 01.10.09
    • 14:46

    What is clear, is that the American Israeli strategic policy of overwhelming military superiority is terribly flawed. Iran is rational and has long demonstrated it. However, rationality is easily trumped by passions of anger and hatred and no people and no country has ever generated as much anger and hatred as Israel. That is the adjustment that Israel must make. Israel must extend justice to it's oppressed and dispossessed Arab citizens and those it occupies and learn to live amicably among it's neighbors.

  • 37. 0 0
    Why is Israel's arsenal of nukes never mentioned
    • John
    • 01.10.09
    • 14:44

    In all the discussion, hand wringing, threats and prophecies of doom that surround Iran and it quest for nuclear weapons there is very little discussion of the Israel's nuclear weapons.Why does it surprise everyone that Iran and perhaps even the Arab coutries feel entitled to develop nuclear weapons when the strongest military power in the area has them and consistently resorted to the military option whenever it chooses? Can there be any doubt Iran believes Israel would use its nuclear weapons if it felt sufficiently threatened and knew no retailiation was possible. Therein lies the problem.

  • 36. 0 0
    The Mullahs Prepare For Genocide While Obama Talks....
    • Adina Kutnicki
    • 01.10.09
    • 14:13

    A cogent analysis by a sober analyst. IF one is truly interested in knowing what Israel's stark choices are against the eminently genocidal Iranian regime, they would be well advised to urgently read 'Project Daniel' in its entirety. It can be found via google. Get busy!!

  • 35. 0 0
    Excellent article
    • Yosi
    • 01.10.09
    • 13:26

    Thanks Louis !!

  • 34. 0 0
    The wolf and the lamb
    • Bob
    • 01.10.09
    • 13:19

    Many people still believe, that the wolf was bad, when he attacked the lamb in the fable of Jean de La Fontaine, but the lamb posed an enormous threat to the wolf and so he had to attack the lamb in a pre-emptive way, in "anticipatory self-defense". Many people still accuse the German military, that they pushed for the 1st World War, but of cause Germany was threatened and encircled by France (left) and Russia (right). Many people still believe, that white is white and black is black, but this simply isn't true. The nations, which own nukes and used them in the past and attack and oppress others on a regular basis and commit war crimes etc. and spend hundreds of billions of dollars for military - they are the lamb. The nation, which opposes oppression, which does not attack anybody, which uses nuclear energy only for civilian purpose - this is the big bad wolf.

  • 33. 0 0
    Building a bomb
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 01.10.09
    • 12:17

    To build an atomic bomb one needs fissile material. Very pure U-235, Pu-239 or U-233. To produce these materials requires a substantial manufacturing plant. And such plants may be monitored. When such plants are monitored they may be prevented from producing material useful in nuclear weapons. This is the reality that seems to elude so many. Perhaps it is because the processes are technical. Perhaps it is because 'nuclear' has become a 'hot button' word. Some of the electrons flowing through my computer right now come from the South Texas Project, a power plant. It does not use bomb grade Uranium, and does not produce bomb grade Plutonium. It just produces power. It is not about to melt down and nuke China. It is not a launch pad for a nuclear attack on Mexico. It is just a power plant. Not a bomb.

  • 32. 0 0
    Rationality
    • Peter
    • 01.10.09
    • 11:49

    'If, however, Israel cannot reasonably assume that all still-plausible Iranian leaderships will remain rational,' I presume Mr Beres is familiar with the extensive Israeli literature on post-1948 geopolitical decision-making in Israel that analyses the 'irrationality'factor as a key component in many decisions to overreact, behave crazily, in such a way as to create fear and a sense of unpredictability in Arab capitals. Israeli policy has hammered home time and again that its national response will be unpredictable (1982,2006). Israel here is arguing that whether it bombs or does not bomb Iran depends on the latter's predictable rationality. That is the problem.

  • 31. 0 0
    Iran has no depth
    • sami abu ismail
    • 01.10.09
    • 11:31

    In the region extended from the Atlantic to China and the Pacific, Muslims live. Arab countries are central. Iran, although having anciornt and glorious history, was weaken and aggressed by world powers: Russia, GB, USA, Isreal and others recently. After the Islamic revolution, Iran was isolated and attacked by Iraq and a hidden qualition that included Arabs, the West, Isreal, UN, etc. Iran had paid enormous price to survive. Day after day, it is threatened by its foes and under contant watch. In addition, internal division is clear and military subversion is common. If Iran is able to get the nuclear arms, it would be a virtual victory and the ultimate protection against its numerous ennemies. In addition it is vital for Iran to build an alliance with the militants in Afghanistan. Gulbuddin, many Mujahedins, and probably Al Qaeda members found refuge in Iran. Iran can make life difficult to the Nato and US forces if it supplies weapons to the resistance.

  • 30. 0 0
    SARAH KINGSTON Iran would NOT want to nuke Israel
    • PETER SM
    • 01.10.09
    • 11:12

    Neither does it want war with Israel. It can all be done by proxies then pleading innocent and useful idiots shouting Israeli agression at the first sign of any retaliation.

  • 29. 0 0
    BBS What about getting out of the NPT before developing nukes?
    • PETER SM
    • 01.10.09
    • 11:09

    Taqiyya can only get you so far.

  • 28. 0 0
    "PEACELOVER" It was NOT Israel that started threatening Iran
    • PETER SM
    • 01.10.09
    • 11:07

    but it is Irans proxies that attack Israel and you people cry foul as soon as the RETURN serve arrives What in your wildest jihadi dreams "peacelover" makes you think Hezballah/Lebanon was going to get away with rocket fire on northen Israel civillians while they did a cross border kidnapping? Ditto for 10000+ qassams fired mostly at Israeli civillians? How many warnings do peacelovers have to ignore before they get a taste of their own?

  • 27. 0 0
    Israel just wants a war
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 01.10.09
    • 10:59

    And Israel will not rest until it has a war with Iran. The problem is that Israel does not have the assets to win a war with Iran. There is no Iranian army on it's boarder to be easily crushed like the Egyptian and Syrian armies were. There is no way to bring the might of the IDF to bear against Iran. Israel cannot mount an amphibious invasion. It lacks the ability to mount a massive airborne assault. Israel doesn't even have the tanker assets necessary to mount a major airstrike against Iran. Israel cannot have the war it wants without involving the United States. Thus the frustration in this flatulent article. Israel has worked itself into a hissy fit. It has terrified itself. It has convinced itself that the world will end unless it attacks Iran. And just as Iran cannot mount a major war against Israel, and for much the same reasons, Israel cannot conquer Iran. America must be drawn in.

  • 26. 0 0
    BBSNEWS
    • Lilly
    • 01.10.09
    • 10:52

    You are very naive if you really believe Iran wants to attack Israel because of the Palestinians. Iran wants to rid the area of the Jewish state and that's it. Believe me, they could care less about the Pals. You don't think the Pals will get hurt if there is a war? I don't see that deterring Iran. Iran has a sick and twisted regime and they have been threatening Israel to wipe them off the map. If Iran was so worried about the pals and their statehood, maybe they should build them schools and universities and theaters instead of bombs and guns.

  • 25. 0 0
    Blessing in disguise
    • CM
    • 01.10.09
    • 10:41

    Good acticle. At that stage it is clear 1. Iran will go nuclear 2. Israel will get the world and especialy Obama on its back if it trys a military option. As the arcticle says Israel should concentrate on deterence. This is within it's control. Positive outcome will be, when Iran goes nuclear Israel will get free hand to build it's deterent. It will also become a much more needed element to Arabs, EU, USA. And then Insh' Allah, we are all in the same boat!

  • 24. 0 0
    What about selling to their proxies?
    • Yehuda
    • 01.10.09
    • 10:22

    Mr Beres seems to forget about the possibility of Iran helping to proliferate nuclear technology via their network of proxies and other rogue governments. Its hard enough to believe that Iran's future leaders will be rational when even the current one is not. But to trust that they won't sell or somehow transfer knowhow or an actual bomb to a proxy group is beyond my level trust. Iran has much to lose in war. Hezbollah - not so much to lose. Lebanon itself - plenty to lose but they seem more intent on blaming Israel than reigning in Hezbollah.

  • 23. 0 0
    Iran has the right to have many bombs not just one
    • Khald
    • 01.10.09
    • 10:21

    We live in a virtual jungle where you have to be strong if you want to survive while maintaining your freedom and dignity. to make a long story short, If Israel and the US and India and others have the right to be strong, then, Iran, too, has the same right. Nuclear weapons are undoubtedly bad and satanic. But they are indispensable for survival, especially if your neighborhood is treacherous.

  • 22. 0 0
    Exposure of Israel's Nuclear Capacity
    • ARTH
    • 01.10.09
    • 09:06

    would be a political victory for Iran and a strategic victory for the world. Iran would have forced Israel to explicitly acknowlege that it has nuclear weapons and even what exactly it has, and how it might use it. Iran has not interest in actually testing a bomb since, just as Israel does, it prefers the ambiguity about its nuclear capacity which it has now, which deterred and scares, without Iran actually having to be truly responsible for having nuclear weapons.

  • 21. 0 0
    Iran is now rational?
    • Tzfonit
    • 01.10.09
    • 06:15

    The present regime in Iran is not rational, so it cannot "remain rational". Beres has not mentioned that the present regime already has supported and armed the proxy armies of Hamas and Hezballah at Israel's borders that have been attacking Israeli civilians for years, and still do. It backs those armies, as well as their extremist philosophies. Iran is led by a fundamentalists and its spokesman is a man who has a distorted conception of reality. It does not hesitate to gun down its own citizens in the streets if they oppose it. So how is this regime rational? Until there is a regime change in Iran Israel has reason to fear the bomb in the hands of the present one. A regime change is the only answer.

  • 20. 0 0
    Washington doesn't get it; Israel just wants regime change...
    • Damian Lataan
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:54

    so that it can then invade the Gaza and south Lebanon to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah and then move back in.

  • 19. 0 0
    The End of the World
    • Bill
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:50

    You people just don't get it. Its not Israel. Its all of us. Iran gets the bomb and we have all descended into a world of hurt. You cannot allow a regime which is likely to use itself or some terrorist proxy to obtain nuclear weapons technology. It is sheer madness. You can convince yourself that things will somehow work themselves out and that cool heads will prevail. The reality is that Iran is a dictatorship of religious zealots. Think about that next time you try and spin off your latest rationalization.

  • 18. 0 0
    Sarah Kingston
    • Daniela
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:39

    that's the point. they are all scared of iran for this reason he gets everything from them easily. The man is not scaring Israel at all, he is only bother us with his racism and all the stupidity he says in front of the world. He is sick ! If he moves a war against Israel he will loose it so the only way to conquer Israel is only if he kills us with the bomb, isareli and palestinians all together, ending the problem that nobody is solving, once for all. in this way he will get the Holy Land and then little by little all the other countries in the area. This is the way I see things.

  • 17. 0 0
    question is can natanyaho make a rational decision?
    • haven't seen it
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:36

    all he ever seems to do is get hyterical and lead the coutry of hysterical genocidal maniacs

  • 16. 0 0
    Jasper, focusing on personalities...
    • BBSNews
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:29

    ...or to be more precise, you are focusing on what you think represents the views and values of those you mention. 'Just ad hominem crap. Your posit suggests a confusion between who are players and who are commentators. Will you ever get one right? This article is claiming that if talks/diplomacy fails, Israel must unmask its nukes, their kill zone, and brandish them against Iran as a "deterrent" in a weird kind of MAD doctrine... ...where Israel admits it has nukes that will do X damage, and woe unto nuke equipped Iran if they launch because Israel will launch the X nukes against them immediately. You missed the central point. Should Israel give up its policy of nuclear ambiguity for Beres's vision above?

  • 15. 0 0
    peacelover
    • Daniela
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:27

    Israel never used the bomb and never planed to use it. Isarel never attacked a nation and threated to erase it from the map of the world. Please don't compare Israel to Iran. Israel wants peace, ahmadinejad is against peace. Did you read the beutiful speach of Nataniahu at the ONU? I'm proud of him. ahmadinejad is planning to rule the Middle est, it is very clear, look the caos going on in Iraq, in Lebanon,look the King Abdallah of Jordan, Assad of Syria, they are all weak so very easy to conquer. Now suddenly Egypt and Syria wants the nuclear too, why? Not because of Israel, but because of Iran. They are all scared including Egypt, unfortunatelly Mubarak is not eternal.In short, believe me, ahmadinejad wants the atomic bomb and he won't be ashame to use it. The world should have stopped him a long ago but it didn't. The world used diplomacy and dialog. WRONG! You can't use diplomacy with terrorist! We have to stop that criminal NOW, in a few months might be too late for all us

  • 14. 0 0
    Iran wants the big one
    • Hugh
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:02

    Of course Iran wants the bomb. It looks at Israel with the atomic version of penis envy.

  • 13. 0 0
    ONE QUESTION...
    • EL
    • 01.10.09
    • 05:00

    Has Iran ever said it will attack Israel? Could someone please answer this question. Thanks.

  • 12. 0 0
    #3 Peacelover - You have a rather odd view of things
    • *BEN JABO
    • 01.10.09
    • 04:50

    Israel didn't invade it's neighbors, quite the opposite, starting with 1948, 1956, 1967 & 1973 May I suggest you research "The Timelines Israel Arab Conflict", there's lots of information out there that your either overlooking or turning a blind eye to

  • 11. 0 0
    Great article - thank you M. Beres
    • Alex Klemm
    • 01.10.09
    • 04:30

    Good to have advisors like M. Beres, a balanced article and well written. Thx

  • 10. 0 0
    I miss Cheney already
    • Steve
    • 01.10.09
    • 04:24

    The old crew seemed more professional and aware. This is nuts...and Obama busy ass kissing for olympics in Chicago.

  • 9. 0 0
    Rationality Defined
    • Jasper
    • 01.10.09
    • 04:10

    Excellent analysis. The bigger picture is needed to understand that the Meshaal, Abbas, and Swiss (Dino) are the pissants. The Black Turbans are the elephants.

  • 8. 0 0
    How wonderfully neocon of you!
    • Johnboy
    • 01.10.09
    • 04:09

    "Over the summer, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden boldly asserted that Israel, 'as a sovereign nation,' has the right to protect itself against a nuclearizing Iran. In law, the precise protective action that Biden had in mind is called 'anticipatory self-defense.' " No, he didn't. Anticipatory self-defense was established in the "Caroline Affair", and is very, very restrictive i.e. the threat must be immediate, and there can be no other possible resolution other than force. Now read this statement AGAIN: "has the right to protect itself against a nuclearizing Iran" The key phrase is: a nuclearIZING Iran. Get it? Biden is talking about a PREVENTATIVE strike to stop Iran getting nukes i.e. he is not talking about a PRE-EMPTIVE strike because Iran is about to nuke someone. The "Biden doctrine" therefore has nothing to do with "anticipatory self-defense", and Beres is misleading you when he says otherwise.

  • 7. 0 0
    Israel should adopt the south korean stance
    • Joey
    • 01.10.09
    • 03:55

    Let Iran get nuclearized. Let Iran get bombs if it wants. Israel should continue condemning Iran's actions and press for international condemnation and sanctions. Israel must keep flexing it's muscles and show to the media it's true power, not hide it. Let Iranians know that if Israel is attacked, it can respond 10 times harder. Let the world know that Israel thas the capability of defending itself. Let the international community isolate Iran to the same extent as North Korea is today. This will lead to a revolution in the republic over the time and hopefully, any future power resulting from a coup will be willing to discuss, and even drop it's nuclear programs to mend Iran's economy. Let Israel make work with fellow countries on a system that can defend both against long and short range missiles. Let Israel establish a nuclear defense policy and conduct one training a year to keep it's civilians ready for any possible catastrophe.

  • 6. 0 0
    We need some reform in Tel Aviv!
    • Marc Leb
    • 01.10.09
    • 03:54

    We have religious fundamentalists controlling Nuclear warheads in Tel Aviv and Iran would support a change in this right-wing government which advocates occupation and disastrous wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as well as backing it's terrorist ally the USA which is the only nation in the world to be convicted of State sponsored terrorism by the World Court

  • 5. 0 0
    Israel's only option: a cold war with Iran
    • AA
    • 01.10.09
    • 03:08

    Is there anyone in the whole world who really believes that sanctions will be able to affect Iran's policy? Did such sanctions work against Sadam Hussein? North Korea? Serbia? Iran in the past? No! So why do they use it? Because they don't want to do the real thing, getting involved in another war, and they don't want to be perceived as doing nothing. As for Israel, attacking Iran on its own would be utterly stupid, so indeed the only option left is deterrence: a cold war with Iran, combined with economic pressure from the world powers, until they crumble like the USSR.

  • 4. 0 0
    Worry about Israel's irrationality...
    • BBSNews
    • 01.10.09
    • 02:45

    ...maintaining the illusion that the occupations could last forever has cost Israel dearly. Not ending them quickly, with a fair and just settlement for the Palestinians is simply leading Israel closer to the brink of destruction. Making peace under the rule of law will take the wind out of Iran's sails, and Iran would not be able to use non-existent "proxy" militant groups with which to taunt Israel with. In fact, ending the illegal occupations will render the old saying by Iran wishing for the Zionist Entity to vanish from the pages of time true. The state of Israel and its people would remain, just no more illegal colonies, occupations and sieges. Win, win, win.

  • 3. 0 0
    Iran wants the bomb because Israel has it.
    • peacelover
    • 01.10.09
    • 02:20

    Furthermore, after witnessing Israel repeatedly invade and assault its neighbors, and watching the U.S. invade Iraq, Iranian leaders would be fools NOT to want nuclear weapons. It's the best guarantee that Israel and the U.S. won't attack them.

  • 2. 0 0
    Why exactly would Iran nuke Israel?
    • Sarah Kingston
    • 01.10.09
    • 02:15

    Iran is expecting to live for more than a few millinea more - and there really is no reason to live with a stigma (as Germans do). Iran can get everything it wants in the ME without firing a single bullet.

  • 1. 0 0
    Yes, long term solution must be political
    • Mark Leaman
    • 01.10.09
    • 02:11

    If Iran is attacked, it will only hold back their nuclear program 3 to 5 years and there will be regional war. However, political change in Iran cannot be imposed from outside except very, very slowly.