Bibi shall not fall again

As always with Benjamin Netanyahu, nobody knows exactly what he's thinking or understands what he really means. If Bibi really intended to implement the principle of two states for two peoples, why is he dealing with nonsense like freezing or not freezing construction in the settlements at such an early stage?

Either he doesn't know how to make a decision, as President Shimon Peres said of him, or he is walking on eggshells, to preserve both relations with the Obama administration and his cabinet's integrity. Some people say that nobody is more suited than Bibi to participate in the popular television program "Survivor."

Meanwhile, Bibi is zigzagging successfully. He has not caused a crisis with either the right or the American administration. The question is how long he will be able to appease the right wing while also honoring his understandings with U.S. President Barack Obama and the Palestinians.

He is like a word-juggler on a tightrope. It's been a long time since we last had a prime minister who used the word "me" so often. David Ben-Gurion, who did a bit more than Bibi to forge Israel's character, never used the word "me." Bibi's "me" is especially conspicuous in view of the fact that a cabinet as large as his, the largest we have ever had, has not yet discussed Obama's peace plan, which Bibi has accepted. True, there is some kitchen cabinet dubbed "the sextet," in which Avigdor Lieberman, Benny Begin and Moshe Ya'alon have tea. But since none of them has slammed the door on his way out yet, it is not clear what this forum has decided and where we stand.

Both the strength and the weakness of American administrations is that they understand and take into account the domestic problems of the countries they deal with. Henry Kissinger used to say that Israel has no foreign policy, only domestic policy - but this approach served him pretty well. Perhaps Obama is also taking Bibi's problems into consideration, and maybe the two of them together set the rules of the game and the boundaries of the dispute between their countries.

It is no accident that some media outlets describe the dispute over construction in the territories as a "coordinated maneuver." In other words, if you say you are going to build, we will protest, but we won't make it into a crisis.

But if this really is a coordinated act, then Bibi's statements indicate that he has either forgotten his lines, or he is simply a bad actor. Or he has broken the agreement, if there was one.

Whether Bibi's statements were coordinated or not, he is playing with fire with his construction games. The upcoming visit by U.S. envoy George Mitchell will give us a better picture of where we stand. In any case, Obama has not been weakened to as great an extent as the Israeli media claims. Almost every president suffers a certain loss in popularity in public opinion polls at this stage of his term.

If I were White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, I would expect Netanyahu to immediately fire whatever official in his entourage leaked an assessment to the press that Obama was not likely to be reelected. How would Bibi react if a source close to the president had leaked an assessment that Netanyahu would not last?

Similarly, I would expect Bibi's bureau to denounce Yossi Peled's preposterous proposition of a few weeks ago: to threaten the United States that we will stop buying weapons from it. Oy oy oy.

The question is, how long can Bibi satisfy the right wing while also reaching an understanding on the American plan to establish a Palestinian state as part of a pan-Arab arrangement? The Obama administration has made its expectations of Israel clear. And despite the threats of several right-wing politicians, it is unlikely that a majority to topple this government can be found.

Bibi and Ehud Barak are coordinated, and will present formulations that fit the spirit of Obama's vision. Neither Tzipi Hotovely nor Moshe Feiglin will be able to withstand these two comeback kids' lust for power and their desire to lead the present government.

The prime minister has recognized the principle of two states for two peoples - i.e. establishing a state for the Palestinians, who have never disappointed our radical right when it comes to helping it escape this commitment. But the current situation is not simple, because the Obama administration is determined to implement its initiative rather than fritter it away.

Netanyahu may be playing a flip-flopping game, but he will soon have to make a decision.

Not only because it is the majority's desire, but first and foremost because he doesn't want to lose the premiership yet again. And if any refrain is running through his head, it is probably something along the lines of the heroic poem about Masada: Bibi shall not fall again.