Between Iraq and Palestine

Events of the past week in Iraq are likely to create the erroneous impression that the rule of coalition forces in the country has totally collapsed. There have been more than 400 American and Iraqi fatalities, and about double the number of injured; there has been house-to-house fighting in Falluja, and gunfights in other cities; foreign citizens have been kidnapped; Shi'ites are in civil rebellion; and the provisional Iraqi government has been destabilized by a series of shock waves.

Events are, indeed, dangerous and circumstances could have grave repercussions if they are not handled wisely and quickly. Nonetheless, it is still too early to talk in apocalyptic terms about a collapse of authority in Iraq.

The United States currently deploys a huge force of 135,000 soldiers in the country. And, if the need arises, it can quickly put more forces on the ground. Its technological superiority is unchallenged, even if it isn't always effective in guerrilla warfare, or in anti-terror operations.

In various parts of the world, including areas close to Israel, voices are articulating anew glee about the U.S. entanglement in Iraq. For example, Hamas' new leader Abdel Aziz Rantisi views the anti-American struggle in Iraq through the prism of the Palestinian struggle against Israel. For him, events in Iraq are a war against the American-Zionist conquest.

As in the past, such militant voices drown out rational voices in the Arab world that speak not only for the genuine welfare of Iraq, but also for the aim of carrying out civil reform in their own countries.

It would appear that of all peoples in the region, the Palestinians are the last ones who should celebrate America's misfortunes. To the extent that the U.S. government is preoccupied in Iraq, America's role as a mediator elsewhere in the region will dissipate, as will any prospect of any diplomatic advance in the Israel-Palestinian dispute. While the first year of the war in Iraq did not force any real change in this dispute, anyone who supports Ariel Sharon's separation plan (and the Palestinian leadership has announced such support) ought to hope the White House will be occupied by a president who has the time and liberty to help move the plan forward.

President George Bush, who will host Hosni Mubarak and Sharon this week, is likely to hear important words of advice regarding the continuation of the peace process, and also promising ways to get out of the quagmire in Iraq. This will be advice proffered by friends who have vested interests, leaders who do not want to see the Iraqi brushfire spread to other regions in the Middle East.

For his part, the U.S. president can present to his guests one important lesson drawn from his war in the Middle East: Occupation is not the end of a war, but rather another phase - it is perhaps the toughest stage, since it involves war against civilians. Hence a local, national leadership is needed to continue the job. It would appear that this lesson, which has been drawn after one year of warfare in Iraq, has yet to permeate the minds of Israel's decision makers, after 37 years of occupation.