• Published 00:57 18.01.11
  • Latest update 00:57 18.01.11

Before the UN makes a decision for us

Bridging the gap between Israel and the Palestinians is possible only through an American initiative.

By Uriel Reichman Tags: Middle East peace

On November 29, 2011 the UN General Assembly decided by a large majority to recognize a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders. This scenario, despite American efforts (as of now) to prevent it, is becoming increasingly real.

UN headquarters AP October 12, 2010

United Nations General Assembly Hall on Oct. 12, 2010.

Photo by: AP

It is even possible that the vote at the UN will take place earlier, and it is not impossible that it will include elements that are problematic for Israel, such as the return of refugees and decisions regarding Jerusalem and the timetable for implementation.

The decision of the General Assembly will create a new strategic reality. After the international community has its say, the anti-Israel wave will become stronger and there will be legitimacy for sanctions against Israel by organizations and countries. International public opinion is even liable to show understanding for violent acts against us.

The Israeli government, we can assume, will react with partial annexation and military action. Meanwhile the split within Israeli society will grow, so that parallel to the external distress this time there is liable to be an internal rift as well.

This is a realistic scenario. Responsible leadership must prevent it. In his Bar-Ilan speech, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in effect accepted the principle of dividing the Land of Israel into two states. Implementation of this principle, even in the framework of the 1967 borders, is a complex matter.

Security issues such as Israeli control of airspace, demilitarization and supervision; borders and territorial exchanges; timetables for evacuation (this is a step that will take years); financial assistance to refugees and evacuees; the question of the arrangement in Jerusalem; the Gaza Strip; the nature of the relations between the states in the future, etc., require localized solutions. A sweeping decision by the UN General Assembly is liable to distance us from an agreement and only heighten the conflict.

It is doubtful whether direct negotiations will produce an agreement. The Israeli coalition structure, the weakness of the Palestinian leadership, the complexity of the issue and the shrinking timetable before possible recognition by the UN of a Palestinian state will make it very difficult to achieve an agreement by consensus. At most we will see an exchange of accusations between the parties, whose objective is to support the vote of the General Assembly or to prevent it.

One significant route is still likely to lead to an agreement. Due to political constraints there is a gap between what the sides are capable of offering and receiving and what they would be willing to compromise about. Bridging this gap is possible only through an American initiative, which begins in a trilateral discussion and ends in an American proposal for an agreement.

There is no question that the success of the move is conditional on a profound understanding of Israel's vital and existential interests, along with providing a fair solution to the refugee problem, including assistance with rehabilitation. Backing for the move on the part of the moderate Arab countries and the European leadership is likely to be of great significance.

Israeli rejection of a fair American proposal is liable to accelerate a decision by the UN General Assembly and to exacerbate the internal conflict in Israel. Rejection on the part of the Palestinians will undermine their international support, will apparently hasten the disappearance of Fatah and will lead to unilateral Israeli moves.

The next 100 days will be significant. The challenge is placed at the door of the Israeli prime minister, the Palestinian Authority and the moderate Arab countries, but equally important is wise American navigation. In the coming months the actors will decide whether there will be a positive change in the region or whether we will lapse into violence.

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  • 30. 0 0
    Why did the Palestinian Authority, Israel, USA, EU, Russia and the UN corner themselves up in an artificial "shrinking timetable" of Palestinian making.
    • Fortuna Benmayor
    • 19.01.11
    • 00:09

    Both sides are understandably impatient and sick and tired of each other. The world is too. However, a "shrinking timetable" is helpful for the side that has something to win: Palestinians now believe, that given Netanyahu's factual (albeit not verbal) intransigence, they have something to win by threatening a game-changer added to a deadline. Recurring to the UN is the game-changer and the date is September 2011. While everybody is blaming the Israeli side, the Palestinian side is threatening with an "our-way-or-apocalypse". This is what Mr. Nabil Shaath declared today to the BBC (Hardtalk). And not only that, they are refusing to talk to Israel, because they sense they have a better side to talk to, namely the UN, which has boiled to the point of following the Palestinian narrative blindly and repeating everything it wishes the world to crow. Thus the sides and the world have, by means of this combination of Israeli intransigence and Palestinian opportunism, arrived to a "shrinking timetable". Shaath's Damocles sword should not hang from a hair over Israelis' and Palenstinians' heads with eight months for "apocalypse".

  • 29. 0 0
    Rather unrealistic
    • Ivan / Toronto
    • 18.01.11
    • 23:41

    You are suggesting that the US should try to engage the Palestinians - once again - as an "Authority" when the rest of the world is beginning to talk with them as a "State" with a recognized border. The second problem with your reasoning is that you seem to assume that the US has no plan whereas in fact it has one. The US pulled its plan last month because of Israeli intransigence. It seems to me that what Israel needs most right now is an advance commitment by Israel to accept any new American initiative if and when it is taken. And the new American initiative must take into consideration that the world has now raised its stance to a new threshold

  • 28. 0 0
    All Gung-Ho for Palestine
    • Mick The Quick
    • 18.01.11
    • 23:23

    Why are all of you so gung-ho for a Palestinian State. How would that improve all your lives, and the world if this State (?) we to be formed ? Do you all think the World would change one iota for the better ?? The prospects would War would be the same, maybe worse. Would the Arabs give us a gift and lower the price of gas to $2 per gallon ?? Why do all of you have this Pavlovian urge for the 23rd Arab dictatorship ?? Makes zero sense.

  • 27. 0 0
    Haven't been here before after World War One !
    • Akram Zekaria
    • 18.01.11
    • 22:56

    A Palestinian State will be a source of instability for both the Palestinians and the Middle East plus the world. You can't plant a State. In fact many Arab states planted in the Middle East after the First World War and all of them by League of Nations which was no much different than todays United Nations. None of those Arab States Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, etc.. was really and real State that serve its own people and a source of stability for its own people or any other people in the entire world ?! The world must think again of any Palestinian State. Another duplicated catastrophe for the future ! Israel will survive but in a world that is living in chaos !

  • 26. 0 0
    Why would the US make a new peace effort when they abandoned the last one only a month ago?
    • Rammer
    • 18.01.11
    • 22:54

    Since the US withdrew its last initiative, the ante has been raised considerably by the international community. Would the US now match what the world is offering the Palestinians, and then get kicked in the shin again by Israel? Or would it offer a diluted plan and put itself on a collision course with the international community, without even being sure that Netanyahu will accept the diluted plan? Israel's intransigence undermines in advance anything the US can do, and Obama would only risk giving the perception, ONCE AGAIN, that he is helpless with America's most dependent client. The only sane thing for him is to let Israel on its own until the world articulates its response, and and then step in as a facilitator. And I would not worry about Israel making unilateral annexations. These would not give her a stronger hold on the territories.

  • 25. 0 0
    Why would the US make a new peace effort when they abandoned the last one only a month ago?
    • Rammer
    • 18.01.11
    • 22:54

    Since the US withdrew its last initiative, the ante has been raised considerably by the international community. Would the US now match what the world is offering the Palestinians, and then get kicked in the shin again by Israel? Or would it offer a diluted plan and put itself on a collision course with the international community, without even being sure that Netanyahu will accept the diluted plan? Israel's intransigence undermines in advance anything the US can do, and Obama would only risk giving the perception, ONCE AGAIN, that he is helpless with America's most dependent client. The only sane thing for him is to let Israel on its own until the world articulates its response, and and then step in as a facilitator. And I would not worry about Israel making unilateral annexations. These would not give her a stronger hold on the territories.

  • 24. 0 0
    Peace Plan
    • Anne
    • 18.01.11
    • 22:23

    NEEDED: A FRICKEN ISRAELI PEACE PLAN FOR PEET'S SAKE..DAMN..REALITY CHECK!!!!

  • 23. 0 0
    Palastine
    • Wildey Moore
    • 18.01.11
    • 21:36

    You've got to look beyond America's realtionship with Israel. America is on the road to Empire and it's bankrupt. As it's money is the world's sovereign backed by oil, it's getting away with flooding the world with counterfeit money. Israel is a tool that is helping it. If things change, AIPAC looses it's influence, the situation will change radically and fast. Go to WND.com. Bring up "Is this the end of America." look at the big picture, not what's happening around you.

  • 22. 0 0
    Unfortunatedly Palestinians want all Of Israel
    • Garrison Katz
    • 18.01.11
    • 20:24

    First War, Terror, Lies in Agreements., Lawfare the Palestinians whether Hamas, Arafat, Abu Mazen all want all of Israel in the end. When Israelis do confront this directly they only hurt Israel. The Palestinians only differ in their tactics. It is unfortunate that many in the Israeli left think by acting scared of others opinions and appeasing the enemy Israel will be saved.

    • 0 0
      Sure
      • Claudio
      • 18.01.11
      • 22:36

    • 0 0
      All of Israel???
      • Oz
      • 19.01.11
      • 00:34

      War, terror, lies in agreements - are you talking about Israel??? Is agressive settlement, collective punishment and active discrimination against the Palestinians in the OPT appeasement??? This is the reason why a solution based on international recognition that settlement in the OPT is illegal is the best option. Israel will do anything to avoid peace.

    • 0 0
      No, Garrison
      • John Swanston
      • 19.01.11
      • 03:32

      It is Israel that wants all of former Palestine. And with the full support of the US and the silence of Europe and the so-called Arab friends of Palestinians they are achieving this goal as we talk and write.

  • 21. 0 0
    USA not competent to make peace
    • Mark Lincoln
    • 18.01.11
    • 19:58

    The USA is not competent to proffer any peace plan. It has proven it's total submission to the Israeli right and it's unwillingness to stand up for it's previous 'plan.' America has been pretending to try and broker peace between Israel and Palestine for decades and it is clear that it is incapable of doing so..

    • 0 0
      The failure isn't just the USA, it's all sides.
      • Fortuna Benmayor
      • 19.01.11
      • 00:17

      Arafat blew it up in 2000. Abbas blew it up in 2008. Netanyahu blows it up now in 2010 / 2011 with the help of a PA enticed by talking to the UN instead. It's true that the USA is an insular super-power, which understands the world very little beyond Iowa. But they have invested enormous amounts of energy, patience, caring, and much more, where other parties have not. I would rather give my thanks to the USA and ask it to please, please don't give up. This has been so hard, and just underneath the current intransigence of governments, -and let's not accuse one or the other side now- both peoples are hungry for peace and an arrangement. Keep the historic patience going so that we can arrive where we all need.

  • 20. 0 0
    Uhm no. What's needed is an Israeli initiative.
    • li
    • 18.01.11
    • 19:35

    Israeli leadership either wants peace or it doesn't. Stop all this nonsense.

  • 19. 0 0
    Israeli cooperation with the UN : a possibility
    • Carol Scheller
    • 18.01.11
    • 19:28

    I am sorry that you are of the belief that Israel, the child of the UN, is incapable of responding to the present situation and needs the US to do it for them. "...partial annexation and military action" : is that really all the state of Israel can imagine ? I wish to hope otherwise.

  • 18. 0 0
    UN Must Act
    • Vladek
    • 18.01.11
    • 18:25

    Obama exhausted much political capital trying to persuade Israel to reconcile with the Palestinians. Abbas made extraordinary efforts with specific proposals. Olmert and Livni created a foundation for a two-state solution. Netanyahu and many USA Jews demonstrated disdain for Obama and his efforts, and then lobbied the USA Congress to interfere in the peace process. Peace, justice and reconciliation cannot be achieved unless greater political forces are applied. The Quartet and the UN can act in unison recognizing both the illegality of the settlements and the need for an independent Palestine.

  • 17. 0 0
    Palestinian State
    • The Seer
    • 18.01.11
    • 17:48

    There will never and I mean never be a Palestinian State.

  • 16. 0 0
    Bridging the gap between Israel and the Palestinians is possible only through an American initiative
    • Bill
    • 18.01.11
    • 16:54

    Wrong!!! The compromises required for peace would be political suicide for BOTH Abbas and Netanyahu...and neither is bold enough to commit. The US can't fix this problem, nor should we have to...that responsibility rests squarely on the shoulders of Israel and the PA.

    • 0 0
      The US must act ...
      • John Swanston
      • 19.01.11
      • 02:03

      or stop acting perhaps. The US has deliberately and consistently supported the Israeli land grab for 60 years. The US is complicit in bringing this situation to the point where Palestine would be a mini state on 22% of The Land. Divided and not viable.

    • 0 0
      Hardly
      • Adam
      • 19.01.11
      • 02:25

      Israel is fully in control and it's all going their way. So, what incentive is there for them to offer Palestinans a fair deal? If the USA really is the great proponent of freedom and liberty they make out to be, they cannot leave the Pals fate the sole responsibility of the Israelis. Because we all know that what Israel's likely to offer without any pressure will be BUGGER ALL!

  • 15. 0 0
    American Peace Plan
    • Sylvia
    • 18.01.11
    • 16:50

    We don't need an American Plan, we need an Israeli one which offers proposals not just responses to others.

  • 14. 0 0
    Before the UN makes a decision for us
    • gareth gardiner
    • 18.01.11
    • 16:31

    whose fault is it that it has come to this? In the world's eyes, including Jews in the Uk, purely the hardline non-flinching US-embarrasing arrogant Netanyahu government ..i despair at the task of the Obama government in having to bring a government including extremists literally dragging and screaming to acheive peace..it really doesnt seem to the outside world as if your government wants it..hence the departure of reasonable Labor ministers

  • 13. 0 0
    Israel left
    • Baruch
    • 18.01.11
    • 13:04

    The decision of the General Assembly will create nothing. It will be one more paper and another stupid decision. Israel security cannot be ignored in any peace plan. Pals try to avoid discussions of the mostly sophisticated problems.

    • 0 0
      International recognition
      • Oz
      • 18.01.11
      • 14:22

      Settlement in the OPT is not about security so why allow it to become such an obstacle to peace unless you really have no interest in peace???? UN recognition that settlements are ILLEGAL will help to clearly define the parameters for any negotiation re land swaps. It will also help pressure Israel to be more realistic re accepting a two state solution.

    • 0 0
      Conversations
      • Baruch
      • 18.01.11
      • 16:33

      Settlements also cannot be ignored. Israel cannot transfer half million people. It means that most of settlements will stay. Their status and may be land exchange are also cannot be solved without conversations. Israel cannot not accept any Arab independence state at West Bank (look at Gaza) with army, air force and borders but autonomy only. Pals understand it and try to avoid using the international pressure on Israel.

    • 0 0
    • 0 0
      Say that again, Baruch?
      • Johnboy
      • 19.01.11
      • 02:56

      "Settlements also cannot be ignored." Yet that is exactly what Bibi is demanding i.e. ignore the settlements, ignore that I am doing in them, yet come and sit with me...... Under those circumstances "sitting down and talking" means accepting that the settlements are already A Fait Accompli, and no Palestinian will agree to that as a pre-condition for talks.....

  • 12. 52 0
    What Israel urgently needs is an end to the occupation and to the settlements
    • Petra
    • 18.01.11
    • 12:10

    Israel has been hijacked by settlers and rightists. The Left must put an end to this insanity that threatens the whole country.

  • 11. 0 0
    Israel must only recognized the Egyptian & Jodanian states at the 1967 boarder.
    • HTR
    • 18.01.11
    • 11:38

    There was NO Palestinian state with the 1967 boarder.

    • 0 0
      Answer to HTR
      • Jane, Czech Republic
      • 18.01.11
      • 12:13

      Hm, and there was Israel in "Partition Plan" borders only. No "Greater Israel", no Jerusalem as israeli capital. So, get out from Palestine, back to "Partition Plan" borders. And THEN you can talk about Israel, Palestine, Jordan and so on...

  • 10. 46 0
    What UN action will do is to force Israel - or rather this government - to come to terms with reality
    • Giggles
    • 18.01.11
    • 11:14

    And let's face it, it almost seems sometimes as if that's what Israel is asking for...which is completely understandable. The political situation in Israel makes the idea of reaching a final agreement extremely fearful to its politicians. Even those who sincerely believe in it, and its importance for Israel's future and security, are deathly afraid of actually going through with it...despite a majority consensus of Israelis who are in agreement. The only way for it to happen, is with external pressure that is sufficient enough for them to claim no other alternative for the good of Israel. They have an inherent need of being able to say "I had no choice". And yes, Israel may initially annex its larger settlement blocks, but in the long run, it cannot withstand international censure, and the end result will inevitably be land exchanges much in line with what's planned anyway. But you're right. It's too Israel's benefit to see the handwriting on the wall and to come to terms with it before it reaches that point. Because the handwriting is in indelible ink, and it's not going to change, nor is international consensus going to swing back the other way; which means that prolonging and forestalling will only serve to make it more imperative. And it has nothing to do with the delegitimization of Israel, it has to do with the world finally waking up fully to the situation, and the true injustice and extent of Israel's occupation and settlement enterprise.

  • 9. 0 0
    Progress
    • John Swanston
    • 18.01.11
    • 11:13

    It is numbingly beyond belief that any pro-Israel voice could complain about the 1967 border suggestion, 22% of former Palestine and being a demilitarised, client state of a country that has for 60 years oppressed them. Sorry, only a 1947 border discussion can provide any sense of justice for the Palestinians. They need to be secure from a country - Israel - far into the future. Given the Israeli record so far there is no guaranteed security for them in any 1967 plan

  • 8. 0 0
    if israelis stop painting the end of the occupation as a bad thing
    • fcj
    • 18.01.11
    • 10:17

    then they will have a chance at making peace. the refrain that israel won't be secure with a palestinian state in its heartland is absurd. with a palestinian state, perhaps israel will face security threats. with the continued occupation, israel faces more than a security threat, it faces an absolutely certain annihilation of itself. the occupation is a boot on the neck of the palestinians (giving them motivation to want to attack israel) and a cancer destroying the jewish and democratic state. continuing the occupation is suicide; once it's ended the palestinians can do what they want. israel's military can protect it and no palestinian government would be suicidal enough to try and attack israel. now the question remains, how to get people to realize that judea and samaria are a rotten, decayed fairy tale given an unholy reanimation by childish fantasy and religious fanaticism? solve that problem and peace will be possible.

  • 7. 62 0
    AIPAC's grip on US politics prevents US playing any useful role. UN is only route.
    • Michael UK
    • 18.01.11
    • 09:39

    In theory, Reichman is correct. The US could bridge the gap between Israel and the Pals, but only IF it is prepared to put huge pressure on both sides. Since AIPAC prevents the US putting almost any pressure on Israel, it's a non-starter. AIPAC has overplayed its hand. By exposing its almost total control of US policy towards israel/Palestine so nakedly it has made the US irrelevant as a mediator there and ironically ultimately made itself irrelevant. The only way AIPAC could make itself relevant again is by slackening its grip, but, after so many decades of throttling US political criticism of Israel, it simply doesn't know how to do that.

    • 0 0
      Exactly!
      • azbob
      • 18.01.11
      • 17:20

      Any "US proposal" would be watered down by Israeli firsters in the US. Even then, Israel would dither and not accept it anyway. So, the dominos will continue to fall, and Israel will have no say in "border" decisions. The world is deciding as we watch.

    • 0 0
      Correct !
      • David
      • 18.01.11
      • 21:02

      Let's cut through all this nonsense. AIPAC is in the driver's seat here and as long as that is the case, the US's hands are tied to impotent mumblings.

  • 6. 0 0
    US PEACE PLAN
    • LT COC HOWARD
    • 18.01.11
    • 09:15

    It is unfortunate that I cannot guarantee an American peace plan that will work on the ground. We received absolute assurances from the Lebanese army, Hezbollah, and Syria that Hezbollah would not be supplied with weapons The UN has been unable to enforce its mission and today Hezbollah has many more and better missiles than they did at the end of hostilities. We extracted from Egypt promises that Israel would have free transit on the Suez Canal(and we would have forces stationed between the Israeli forces and the Egyptian forces to assure peace.) When Sadat demanded they be removed they were removed quickly. Our history of guarantees and be able to enforce these guarantees indicates that no matter what promises we receive we will be unable (and possibly unwilling )to enforce them on the ground .For Arabs, ‘back to the future’ means return to 1948, genocide of Jews, Israel’s elimination.

  • 5. 0 0
    Peace negociations
    • Ralph
    • 18.01.11
    • 09:02

    There is no need to involve US in peace negociations, No solution will be found out of Jordan-Palestine federation.

  • 4. 46 0
    Come on!
    • Can
    • 18.01.11
    • 08:24

    Would ISrael really take a US proposal? They already proposed Israel to stop settlement constructions. Result: Still more buildings are constructed in East Jlem. What peace needs is not a US proposal, but a peaceful Israeli government.

  • 3. 0 0
    I will be shocked ...
    • Stoopid American
    • 18.01.11
    • 02:48

    ... if Netanyahu sincerely participates in a peace process. I will equally shocked if the PA attempts to trust him. I see no plausible way to avoid this so-called "unilateral" option. Nor do I see any practical way that such a resolution by the UN would change a thing on the ground. Therefore I will be very surprised if war is not going to be the ultimate destination for everyone involved. But then again, I'm an optimist ...

  • 2. 0 0
    Plan B for the Arabs
    • Logios
    • 18.01.11
    • 01:32

    The Arabs seem to be pushing a move that I have been advocating since the peace negotiations got stuck: They are going to ask the UN Security Council to condemn Israel for construction in the Occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. The US prevailed on the Arabs in the past not to do so in order not to undermine the peace process, but with the failure of US mediation, there is no reason to wait. The goal of the move is to gradually increase international (and US) pressure on Israel. Obama will not veto such condemnation since he condemns construction himself. Indeed, the US might vote Yes. This will be a message to Israel that she is losing protection from her only friend. A few months later, when Israel does not comply, there should be a move to ask for mild sanctions. Later still, a move to recognize Palestine in the 1967 borders. This will probably pass the GA. Sometime later, a request to the Security Council to admit Palestine as a member state. It is important to go gradually, so as to gradually condition the US and the world to punish Israel for its bad policies. I think that before we get to advanced stages of this conditioning process, the Israeli public will recognize the danger, bring down the Netanyahu government, and replace it with a peace-oriented coalition. The same happened when Shamir the extremist was replaced by Rabin.

  • 1. 0 0
    Plan B for the Palestinians: Get the US out of mediating the conflict
    • Logios
    • 18.01.11
    • 01:32

    The US is now run by a weak President, one who would not even apply enough pressure on Israel to get a trivial result like freezing construction in the West Bank for THREE miserable months. Obama has good intentions, but is not inclined to use pressure. To move ahead, the Palestinians can decide not to accept Obama's mediator any longer. They should announce it and say publicly they will only deal with a Quartet (European) mediator. The Europeans are not in the pocket of a pro-Israeli Lobby, unlike the US Congress, and are more even-handed. Of course, they exert less influence on Israel, but potentially, they are very influential because of trade and proximity. The problem so far was that when the US takes responsibility, the Europeans stay on the sidelines. The Palestinians should get them to be more heavily involved, and in fact can do that. A mediator cannot mediate if one side rejects him.