Applying lessons from Northern Ireland
Israel should push for the establishment of a semi-permanent peace conference involving moderate Arab countries and representatives of the Quartet.
Two dogmas have ruled Israeli policies for decades: "Always deal with only one Arab nation, and avoid meeting together with all of them," and "Never allow for a permanent international peace conference because it might push us into corners from which we cannot escape." The result has been a "wait-and-see" strategy that assumes that time is on our side.
But "wait and see" is no longer an option. Every year that goes by strengthens Islamic fundamentalists, as we have painfully seen with Hamas' election victory. Israel has never had less to lose and more to gain from experimenting with novelty. The fear of giving up some square kilometers is disproportionate to the danger of being faced with radical regimes armed with rockets that can reach any Israeli city.
Our situation is well reflected in a story that Lord John Alderdice, originally from Belfast, told me in the context of serving on a panel on terrorism, in Sicily. Alderdice, a psychiatrist by training, received his peerage in honor of his crucial contribution to peacemaking in Northern Ireland well before the Good Friday Agreement, while he was still leader of the Alliance Party and before becoming the first speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly.
When he was a child, he was wondering how his community, the Protestants, could possibly protect themselves against Catholics. His father then told him: "Imagine that our house is locked, and that you can't get out, and that there is a cage with a lion in it. In two weeks this cage will be opened, and there's nothing you can do about that. Don't you think it's a good idea to start talking to the lion?"
Of course, this advice is frightening: Can you ever know for sure that the lion is not going to eat you? The one thing you know for sure is that the lion is here, and that he will come out of his cage. It was this insight that guided Alderdice through the arduous process of ultimately successful peacemaking, and he is currently applying this lesson in various parts of the world. In his view Israel must start seeing Arabs as partners.
Two creative breakthroughs are needed: the first is to see moderate Arab states as true partners with a common interest in resolving the problem, and to break with the decades old Israeli doctrine that we should never meet the Arab world as a whole. This policy is based on the denial of historical reality: The Arab world as a whole needs to accept Israel's presence in the Middle East.
The Arabs should help us? Yes. Social psychology has shown time and again that the best way to create solidarity between feuding parties is to have them work on a common problem. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not just our problem: It is one of the whole Arab world, because it fuels Islamic fundamentalism and destabilizes the region. No Palestinian leader can opt for compromise without looking for the legitimacy bestowed by all Arabs.
The second breakthrough we need is to rethink Israel's phobia of participating in permanent conferences that allow a process to evolve. This is exactly the opposite of the situation of the Camp David summit in 2000, which was completely identified with Bill Clinton, who was in the last phase of his presidency. The frantic pressure of having to strike a deal before he left the White House, with no one in sight who would shepherd the process to an end, was a recipe for failure.
Instead we need to apply the model of the Northern Ireland process. In Alderdice's view the major factor that made success in that process possible was the participation of the British and Irish governments, as well as the support and involvement of the American government. All pledged to be there for as long as it took to reach an agreement.
Psychologically, it makes a huge difference to know that external support is there to stay. The idea to nominate Tony Blair as the Quartet's special envoy to the Middle East is a step in the right direction. Blair no longer depends on the political fortunes of any government or administration. He can be there to stay - never mind who governs the United States, Russia or is at the helm of the European Union.
Israel should push for the establishment of a semi-permanent peace conference involving moderate Arab countries and representatives of the Quartet. Blair's role should by no means be limited to Palestinian nation-building. Instead he should become the symbol and guarantor that this time the West is here to stay until there is the proverbial white smoke, even though this will take years.
Carlo Strenger is a professor in the psychology department of Tel Aviv University and a member of the Permanent Monitoring Panel on Terrorism of the World Federation of Scientists.