An imprudent missile umbrella

Judging by the publicity accorded it, it's safe to conclude that the Israeli government believes that the joint Juniper Cobra air defense drill with the United States enhances the country's national security. This may be a premature judgment.

To begin with, the exercise and hype show everyone that Israel is, at the least, unsure of its ability to defend effectively against missile strikes by Iran and possibly others without the help of its ally the United States. This would not be the first time this lack has been exposed; during the two Gulf wars, similar scenarios unfolded.

But airing anew this vulnerability also undermines any offensive option Israel might have hinted at to pressure Iran to stop its program. It suggests that Israel will think twice before going after Iran's nuclear facilities given that its own defenses against retaliatory missile attacks are insufficient. Moreover, filling the defensive gap with U.S. capabilities would all but nullify a military undertaking, considering Washington is on record as firmly opposing an Israeli preemptive attack.

One can hardly blame Iran for concluding, as its Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki has said, that "the Zionist regime currently [is] in its weakest position and we do not see [that] it has such a capacity" to carry out a strike against Iran's nuclear installations.

Second, by conducting the defense drill, Israel and the United States are implicitly recognizing that a nuclear-armed Iran is a fait accompli. The mere fact that the two countries are stressing defense against a missile attack indicates a shift from a possible offensive option, which Israel demonstrated successfully against the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear programs. Moreover, if there was any residual fear in Tehran that the drill may bolster Israel's offensive option, repeated statements that its timing is "unrelated to current events" have undermined any leverage the two countries might have gained from the event. At the minimum, this is the wrong signal to send to Tehran during negotiations to halt its nuclear program.

Little wonder that Iran has taken pains to display its disdain for the deadlines put down by U.S. President Barack Obama and the "Iran Six" group of nations concerning its nuclear program. Tehran, no doubt, feels confident enough to demonstrate that it will not abide by any international diktat and that it remains undeterrable.

Third, the drill fosters an undue reliance on the defense commitment of a foreign power, not to mention the effectiveness of its antiballistic-missile technology. In this regard, past lessons should not be forgotten. It may be recalled that in 1991, the deployment of American Patriot (PAC-2) missile defenses in Israel was meant to intercept Iraqi Scud missiles and keep Israel out of the Gulf conflict. The Patriots proved utterly ineffective, yet Washington did not relent in its opposition to Israel taking care of its own security by attacking the Scud sites in western Iraq. The net result of this forced restraint was a severe blow to Israeli strategic deterrence.

Fourth, while Israel views the exercise largely as a signal to Iran, Washington wants the drill to further tie down Israel's hands so it does not act unilaterally to preempt Tehran's nuclear gambit. The exercise's unspoken message is that there is no need to go after the Iranian program since an Iranian attack would be dealt with comprehensively by a range of U.S. defense platforms deployed in-theater on short notice.

Finally, and most important, the size and scope of the exercise are undoubtedly linked to the overall concept pronounced this past July by the United States, which envisions extending an American "defensive umbrella" over the Middle East if Iran goes nuclear. There should be little doubt in Jerusalem that in due course the Obama administration will use the umbrella argument to pressure Israel into disarming its reported "bomb-in-the-basement" posture and giving up its option of last resort. Yet, paradoxically, the U.S. umbrella solution would allow Iran to go nuclear while an Israeli preemption is blocked under the pretext that the U.S. defense guarantee would deter the Iranians, or failing this, beat back any attack. It is incomprehensible that Israel is taking part in this scheme.

The writer is the author of "The Continuing Storm: Iraq, Poisonous Weapons and Deterrence" (Yale University Press)