Yossi Melman / Draft nuclear deal is a victory for Iran
Reported agreement with West has dealt a serious blow to chances that the U.S. will attack Iran.
By Yossi Melman Tags: UN Israel news Iran nuclearThe already distant option of military action against Iran drew even further away on Wednesday, as a draft agreement on Iran's nuclear program dealt a serious blow to chances that the United States will attack Iran.
The full draft of the agreement between six world powers and Iran is still to be published, and the little we know leaves a lot of question marks. However, if the draft is confirmed and if Iran fulfills the agreement to the letter, the Islamic Republic will have scored a major achievement in the war of attrition it has been running against the international community, while still relentlessly pursuing its nuclear program.
The agreement removes all justification for an attack on Iran's nuclear sites over claims it is violating international commitments and attempts to obtain nuclear arms.
The military option seems to have been postponed by at least 18 months, the time frame allocated for the agreement. Israeli policy on Iran has suffered a particularly strong setback, as the agreement also narrows the possibility of significant sanctions against Tehran.
However, the agreement also signifies that Iran is, eventually, vulnerable to pressure, and is aware of the international community's demand and concerns over its nuclear program. The agreement distances Iran by at least 18 months from obtaining enriched uranium, which could then be further enriched to produce nuclear weapons.
Although the agreement essentially contradicts the UN Security Council, which demands a stop to all Iranian enrichment of uranium, it does not contain a clause guaranteeing the removal of the sanctions already imposed on Iran. Those sanctions are fairly light, but their maintenance is a reminder that Iran is still must prove the innocence of its intentions.
At the end of the day, any compromise agreement buys time for all involved. Iran gets relief from international pressures without stopping the uranium enrichment, and the West gets a time-out, while maintaining vigilance over the Tehran's nuclear program.
The agreement can become a landmark in a long journey toward trust and understanding between Iran and the West. But there is also the risk the deal is a one-off, or that Iran will break it, continuing to develop knowledge, technology and materials needed for nuclear weaponry. This possibility considered, the Mossad's estimate Iran could begin producing nuclear arms by 2014 remains as valid as it ever was.
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.. why bother?
This threat is Israels major trump card and allows it to defy international law and gives it the ultimate green light to bomb or invade anyone in the ME if it feels like it!....PEACE EVER?
Back when John Bolton had just lost his chance to be confirmed by the US senate to become the US ambassador to the UN, he lamented the fact that Iran had not kicked out weapons inspectors or something like that... so "that kind of reaction would produce a counter-reaction that actually would be more beneficial to us" He was talking to aipac big contributors. Why is it that these people love war so much?
"When did Mossad claim Iran could begin producing nukes in 2014?" - Truth Five years after Mossad claimed Iran would have them in 2009. Six years after Mossad claimed Iran would have them in 2008. Seven years after Mossad claimed Iran would have them in 2007. Give or take a year.
With the threat of war with Iran over, now the world watches for responce to the war crimes in Gaza
Would you care to elaborate on your last statement? I'm very curious why you don't think this agreement removes "justifications" for military attack against Iran.
I have noticed Yossi's increasingly growing itch to wage a war against iran for quite a while now. As an analyst, it's mind-bugling his ineptitude in understanding what a setback this potntially is for the regime. Without the immediate threat of a military attack, the regime's control internally is limited which empowers the opposition in their struggle against the regime. But of course that would leave Yossi empty inside. I hope he takes his wish to his grave. You are one ugly man Yossi, inside and out.
Why would the Americans want to attack Iran? There are plenty of other countries that could do it. We have enough now with two conflicts. Find another patsy with money.
Mr. Melman clearly is in the camp which wants a war now, if not yesterday. The story oozes disappointment as well as showing just how out of touch with reality Mr. Melman is when he writes: "a draft agreement on Iran's nuclear program dealt a serious blow to chances that the United States will attack Iran."
Though its to early to attach to the "so-called agreement" between the parties to it (Ha, aren't we going to rely on Sarkozy)an anti-deterrence value to it, its real outcome is that Mr Obama by showing his philosophy of compromise, Netanyahu can build a "road" wide enough on that premise, which will allow to actual put to work his vision. He is a hell of an astute politician and backed with his keen observation of the Washington scene, and the European ambition to fight now the Hegemony of US (which is somehow reduced these days), his ability to take Israel foreign policy to a different path is fesable and appropriatly legitimate for him to engage in. No more reliance on the American umbrella, as we see, in our regional context divided and unsubtantial. The logical turn of foreign policy is to China, India and Africa (sure: presence on the ground and commercial, and technical help), will have USA talk and act more realistically.
When did Mossad claim Iran could begin producing nukes in 2014? as far as I know Israel has been claiming every 6 months, Iran is only months away from making nukes. Is the new date a new attempt to save face for Israel?
Since all parties involved are not interested in war and killings it is only logical thing to deal trough diplomacy. Iran has every right to develop nuclear technology and this deal shows that they want this fuel for peaceful purpose. If you mean UN resolutions that were made under bush administration and under pressure from jewish lobby, Iran has every right to not respecting those, because they clearly break their rights under NPT. Maybe we should ask ourselves how much UN laws Israel brakes by having real nuclear bombs. And attacking Iran wont solve anything, maybe weaken Iran so that Israel can dominate middle east for years to come. This has nothing to do with nukes, its all about weakening countries that are strong enough to challenge Israel.
If the rumors are true and Iran adheres to it, people need not die in the thousands or millions to keep some politicians in office either in Iran or in Israel. It would also be a victory for the practice of diplomacy over the politics of shouting and threatening. It's 2009, not 1938.