When it comes to the settlement freeze, Netanyahu maintaining poker face
What will the Prime Minister do? He'll wait for the last minute. Anything he said now would be used to increase the pressure on him.
By Aluf BennSome political crises come as a surprise and overcoming them involves a high price. Others are expected and can be prepared for without causing damage.
The first kind includes events like the building plan in East Jerusalem that was published during U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's visit to Jerusalem and infuriated President Barack Obama. Or the flotilla to Gaza, which was expected, but its interception turned into an unforeseen entanglement. In both cases, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was lambasted abroad.
The construction freeze in the settlements, which is due to expire in a month, belongs to the second kind. The deadline is known in advance, inviting pressure on the prime minister from all directions. The settlers want to build, the Palestinians are threatening to quit the peace talks, the right-wing ministers are demanding that we revoke the suspension and Labor ministers are pushing for an extension. Even Obama said "the settlements must stop."
Netanyahu knew the freeze would eventually end and he would have to find an alternative. He has several goals - to remain in power, keep his coalition intact, prevent a rebellion among Likud MKs, appease Obama and prevent the talks with the Palestinians from collapsing.
What will he do? He'll wait for the last minute. If he already has a compromise formula he won't disclose it before the deadline. Anything he said now would be used to increase the pressure on him.
So Netanyahu will keep mum and let his ministers talk. Both Dan Meridor and Avigdor Lieberman talk of a "differential freeze." Likud ministers like Gideon Sa'ar and Michael Eitan agree to this. Everyone agrees the sweeping construction freeze cannot be continued and that the large settlement blocs should be distinguished from the isolated settlements beyond the separation fence. Construction will resume in the blocs and be frozen in the isolated settlements - or continue on a small scale.
Rabin also distinguished in the 1992 election campaign between what he called the "security settlements" (the blocs ) and the "political" ones. Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert reached quiet understandings with the U.S. administration to continue building in the blocs and freeze construction in the settlements beyond the fence.
Netanyahu's compromise solution will probably involve construction on demand in the blocs and freezing construction in Elon Moreh, Yitzhar and south of Mount Hebron. This formula has a majority in the cabinet and forum of seven senior ministers. Now Netanyahu must give the Palestinians something so they don't quit the direct talks.
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Benjamin Netanyahu speaking during the weekly cabinet meeting at his Jerusalem office, July 25, 2010. |
| Photo by: AP |
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The land belongs strictly to Israel and it always will, because that's what God said. Israel will be victorious for eternity and the greedy Palestinians will perish. Read the Bible and learn that God's plan will prevail. Stay strong, Mr. Natanyahu!
..... from that look rabbits have when they are caught in the oncoming headlight...... Perhaps call it "startled stoneyness".
is that Bibi will cave in if his foreign masters decide it is in the best interest of the Arabs to continue the freeze.
maybe after he goes home ! HE LOUGHS AT THAT TRULY ! maybe he asks forgiveness ... are you sure he is having that face ?
The Poker face of BiBi or that of SaraHAHAHAHA?!
My, ain't they getting chummy? Habbas is a fake, a traitor to his people. Put him out of his misery already.
A pre-condition attempts to determine (part of) the outcome of negotiations before they are held. If Israel DOES freeze construction of new settlements, this does not determine the outcome of borders etc., so I wouldn't call the Palestinian demand a pre-condition. If Israel does NOT freeze construction, this DOES change the outcome of the talks. Such a freeze is therefore not a "pre-condition" to the talks, but a necessary condition for the talks to be held. Netanyahu no doubt is clever enough to understand this, but the rest of the Israeli public may not be. Even some members of the Israeli government seem to get confused by this word game. The US is not fooled and remains opposed to construction in the Territories (which is against International Law). Good for all parties involved.
A pre-condition attempts to determine (part of) the outcome of negotiations before they are held. If Israel DOES freeze construction of new settlements, this does not determine the outcome of borders etc., so I wouldn't call the Palestinian demand a pre-condition. If Israel does NOT freeze construction, this DOES change the outcome of the talks. Such a freeze is therefore not a "pre-condition" to the talks, but a necessary condition for the talks to be held. Netanyahu no doubt is clever enough to understand this, but the rest of the Israeli public may not be. Even some members of the Israeli government seem to get confused by this word game. The US is not fooled and remains opposed to construction in the Territories (which is against International Law). Good for all parties involved.
This issue is particularly revealing of elements in Netanyahu's personality. First, a basic principle. If you are discussing with another side sharing the land (or a pizza), it cannot be done while one party keeps devouring the land (or the pizza). Some form of a freeze is obviously a necessary condition for peace talks. If this thought did not occur to netanyahu on his own, he could have gotten a clue from the fact that the Roadmap included a freeze in the FIRST phase. This is basic. What decision did the Netanyahu government take? 1. The freeze applies to outside the current line of buildings, not to building WITHIN the currently built area. 2. The freeze will last for only 10 months. 3. The freeze will not be renewed. What do these elements indicate? The first element shows that Netanyahu has some sense of realism, and understands that a territorial exchange is acceptable to the Palestinians, so he takes advantage of it. The two other points are clearly unreal. Was it conceivable that the talks will be concluded in only 10 months? Would the Palestinians even conceive of talking peace with no freezing? I think Netanyahu has enough realism to realize that, but since he was dealing with his right wing partners Lieberman and most of Likud members, he decided to deceive them for now, present a nicer picture, and when the time comes he would try to wriggle out of it. All this shows Netanyahu as a creature of pressure; when pressured he acts, many times deceptively. Ultimately, he is not a courageous leader. He did not fight out the good fight then. Now he will pay some extra political cost for cheating his followers.
After months of protesting he wanted direct talks, Abbas chose to capitulate and agree to them just in time for Netanyahu's very permeable 'settlement freeze' to end. That is not a 'poker face' that is the face of mortification. How to extend the un-extendable? How to satiate Liberman and the Settlers, without appearing a total pile of dreck? How to keep the scam going when you are caught out like Bernie Madoff?
...I'd wager that the Prime Minister is (a) keeping mum because he is waiting to see EXACTLY what he finds in Washington, and (b) praying for some kind--ANY KIND!...of a miracle.
Oooooh, I can help him pray for a miracle...